Figure C

Higher dollar value drives larger manufacturing trade deficits: 3-year lagged change in dollar’s value and 1-year lead change in trade deficit, 1973–2024

Date Trade deficit Dollar index
1978Q1 0.2% -15.1
1978Q2 0.2% -10.3
1978Q3 0.3% -10.2
1978Q4 0.3% -12.4
1979Q1 0.4% -11.0
1979Q2 0.5% -5.2
1979Q3 0.0% -7.8
1979Q4 0.2% -5.7
1980Q1 0.4% -2.8
1980Q2 0.4% -1.9
1980Q3 0.1% -7.8
1980Q4 0.3% -6.9
1981Q1 0.0% -3.5
1981Q2 0.0% 1.7
1981Q3 0.1% 6.9
1981Q4 0.4% 3.5
1982Q1 0.3% 6.9
1982Q2 0.2% 10.9
1982Q3 0.3% 17.6
1982Q4 -0.2% 19.0
1983Q1 0.0% 18.7
1983Q2 0.4% 21.3
1983Q3 0.8% 27.4
1983Q4 1.5% 28.3
1984Q1 2.1% 27.4
1984Q2 2.1% 26.7
1984Q3 2.4% 33.1
1984Q4 2.5% 34.0
1985Q1 2.7% 37.8
1985Q2 3.2% 35.5
1985Q3 3.4% 34.5
1985Q4 3.5% 27.9
1986Q1 3.5% 21.0
1986Q2 3.6% 11.7
1986Q3 3.6% 4.3
1986Q4 3.2% 7.4
1987Q1 3.1% 0.6
1987Q2 3.0% -5.9
1987Q3 2.7% -10.6
1987Q4 2.7% -14.7
1988Q1 1.9% -15.5
1988Q2 1.4% -19.2
1988Q3 1.1% -18.7
1988Q4 0.9% -22.6
1989Q1 0.3% -22.3
1989Q2 -0.1% -20.9
1989Q3 -0.3% -26.2
1989Q4 -0.2% -29.8
1990Q1 -0.4% -34.7
1990Q2 -0.5% -32.8
1990Q3 -0.8% -32.3
1990Q4 -1.0% -29.8
1991Q1 -1.5% -24.3
1991Q2 -1.9% -16.7
1991Q3 -1.9% -14.4
1991Q4 -1.7% -17.5
1992Q1 -1.6% -13.6
1992Q2 -1.5% -10.7
1992Q3 -1.3% -14.3
1992Q4 -1.2% -6.2
1993Q1 -0.7% -1.5
1993Q2 -0.4% -2.8
1993Q3 -0.2% -5.9
1993Q4 -0.3% -1.8
1994Q1 0.0% -0.8
1994Q2 0.3% -4.8
1994Q3 0.5% -7.3
1994Q4 0.7% -7.0
1995Q1 0.8% -4.7
1995Q2 0.9% -9.3
1995Q3 0.7% -5.0
1995Q4 0.7% -0.5
1996Q1 1.1% 0.0
1996Q2 1.2% -2.9
1996Q3 1.2% -2.6
1996Q4 0.8% 0.7
1997Q1 0.9% 3.1
1997Q2 0.6% 3.7
1997Q3 0.6% 7.8
1997Q4 0.7% 7.8
1998Q1 0.7% 10.7
1998Q2 1.0% 13.1
1998Q3 0.8% 15.3
1998Q4 0.8% 10.6
1999Q1 1.1% 9.2
1999Q2 1.2% 11.2
1999Q3 1.4% 13.2
1999Q4 1.1% 13.2
2000Q1 1.4% 12.5
2000Q2 1.4% 19.6
2000Q3 1.8% 19.7
2000Q4 1.9% 20.8
2001Q1 1.7% 20.9
2001Q2 1.4% 22.9
2001Q3 1.5% 22.6
2001Q4 1.7% 22.6
2002Q1 1.8% 21.8
2002Q2 2.1% 19.3
2002Q3 2.1% 15.9
2002Q4 2.1% 13.2
2003Q1 1.9% 6.6
2003Q2 1.6% 2.3
2003Q3 1.5% 0.1
2003Q4 1.5% 0.9
2004Q1 1.2% -1.5
2004Q2 1.4% -0.2
2004Q3 1.2% -0.7
2004Q4 1.3% -3.1
2005Q1 1.1% -5.5
2005Q2 1.0% -6.8
2005Q3 0.8% -7.0
2005Q4 0.9% -8.8
2006Q1 0.8% -11.4
2006Q2 1.0% -15.0
2006Q3 1.0% -14.6
2006Q4 0.8% -16.5
2007Q1 0.7% -18.0
2007Q2 0.3% -18.2
2007Q3 0.1% -18.3
2007Q4 -0.4% -22.3
2008Q1 -0.3% -21.6
2008Q2 -0.5% -19.0
2008Q3 -0.6% -16.9
2008Q4 -0.8% -4.9
2009Q1 -1.5% -0.9
2009Q2 -2.2% -7.2
2009Q3 -2.0% -9.4
2009Q4 -1.9% -8.4
2010Q1 -1.8% -6.9
2010Q2 -1.6% -7.1
2010Q3 -1.2% -9.5
2010Q4 -1.4% -13.7
2011Q1 -1.4% -13.5
2011Q2 -1.4% -14.4
2011Q3 -1.3% -13.7
2011Q4 -1.1% -8.9
2012Q1 -1.0% -9.8
2012Q2 -0.9% -6.3
2012Q3 -0.7% -4.5
2012Q4 -0.4% -2.4
2013Q1 -0.5% -0.6
2013Q2 -0.4% 1.3
2013Q3 -0.1% -0.2
2013Q4 0.1% -9.5
2014Q1 0.9% -10.4
2014Q2 1.3% -7.3
2014Q3 1.1% -3.4
2014Q4 1.1% 2.7
2015Q1 1.4% 7.2
2015Q2 1.1% 6.8
2015Q3 0.9% 11.5
2015Q4 0.9% 16.0
2016Q1 1.0% 19.1
2016Q2 1.0% 18.8
2016Q3 0.8% 19.2
2016Q4 0.8% 19.4
2017Q1 0.8% 20.7
2017Q2 0.9% 16.5
2017Q3 0.7% 12.9
2017Q4 0.9% 15.2
2018Q1 1.0% 12.3
2018Q2 0.8% 14.5
2018Q3 0.9% 16.0
2018Q4 1.1% 18.6
2019Q1 0.7% 16.2
2019Q2 0.6% 17.8
2019Q3 0.6% 17.9
2019Q4 0.1% 14.0
2020Q1 -0.4% 10.1
2020Q2 0.1% 12.8
2020Q3 0.5% 5.8
2020Q4 0.8% 1.7
2021Q1 0.8% -1.7
2021Q2 0.7% 1.5
2021Q3 0.6% 2.5
2021Q4 0.7% 1.2
2022Q1 1.3% 1.6
2022Q2 0.9% 8.0
2022Q3 0.4% 15.8
2022Q4 0.2% 15.5
2023Q1 0.0% 14.0
2023Q2 0.1% 10.7
2023Q3 -0.3% 8.6
2023Q4 -0.4% 8.2
2024Q1 0.0% 8.5
2024Q2 0.0% 9.6
2024Q3 0.3% 8.4
2024Q4 0.5% 11.8
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Economic Policy Institute

Note: Exact measure is goods exports excluding agricultural goods and petroleum minus goods imports excluding agricultural goods and petroleum. Dollar value is the real, broad, trade-weighted dollar index from the Federal Reserve. 

Source: National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) program of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

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