Figure A

Recessions and rising unemployment happen when GDP is demand-constrained: Actual real GDP and potential real GDP over time and forecasts

Quarter Actual GDP Potential GDP, 2007 forecast Potential GDP, 2019 forecast Potential GDP, 2024 forecast
2000Q1 82.04514283 79.65601594 81.08288983 81.6233986
2000Q2 83.53965664 80.39912911 81.92549157 82.4878557
2000Q3 83.62478717 81.14560479 82.75662067 83.3131944
2000Q4 84.12433787 81.89039921 83.56799133 84.094541
2001Q1 83.84825482 82.62762801 84.34303196 84.8330896
2001Q2 84.37204408 83.34552241 85.07855572 85.52967002
2001Q3 84.03388668 84.04408241 85.78667262 86.185444
2001Q4 84.26503973 84.72162678 86.46674528 86.80671559
2002Q1 84.96973137 85.37227112 87.11240001 87.39703796
2002Q2 85.48997351 86.00274044 87.73064789 87.96738691
2002Q3 85.83758986 86.61891912 88.3316868 88.52714376
2002Q4 85.94400303 87.22416967 88.92125307 89.07955212
2003Q1 86.39625899 87.82689834 89.51528092 89.63117063
2003Q2 87.1618426 88.42458326 90.10102298 90.1867864
2003Q3 88.61142641 89.02058692 90.68676503 90.742998
2003Q4 89.64008702 89.61827184 91.27569394 91.30782347
2004Q1 90.1479143 90.21847864 91.87609548 91.88423619
2004Q2 90.8466941 90.82625106 92.50007967 92.47083872
2004Q3 91.70804956 91.44074849 93.12788808 93.07165021
2004Q4 92.64389425 92.06281156 93.75378438 93.6814195
2005Q1 93.67137249 92.69328088 94.37649383 94.28046625
2005Q2 94.1330874 93.32879395 94.98135696 94.86239896
2005Q3 94.87088536 93.97187266 95.56964849 95.43416906
2005Q4 95.39763053 94.61999512 96.13818159 95.9911135
2006Q1 96.68109156 95.27232072 96.66656044 96.53231371
2006Q2 96.93175369 95.93053069 97.16689506 97.05943925
2006Q3 97.07659383 96.59462504 97.65065808 97.56161395
2006Q4 97.91134601 97.26460377 98.1223111 98.03736528
2007Q1 98.20575577 97.94130751 98.59332675 98.51819306
2007Q2 98.80639898 98.623055 99.06752924 99.00682448
2007Q3 99.37570942 99.30900562 99.53663278 99.50227723
2007Q4 100 100 100 100
2008Q1 99.57316496 100.6943569 100.4627299 100.4946525
2008Q2 100.1661228 101.3929169 100.924185 100.9744829
2008Q3 99.63996879 102.0948394 101.3697059 101.4367075
2008Q4 97.45909005 102.800965 101.7929188 101.8749961
2009Q1 96.3529843 103.5112938 102.1798018 102.2809272
2009Q2 96.18035849 104.2258257 102.5112336 102.6628701
2009Q3 96.51851589 104.9428795 102.8171707 103.0244691
2009Q4 97.56195611 105.6607739 103.102712 103.3775633
2010Q1 98.03431233 106.3786683 103.365308 103.7355868
2010Q2 98.98316307 107.0932002 103.6259919 104.1042256
2010Q3 99.74638195 107.8068914 103.8892253 104.4920176
2010Q4 100.2701712 108.5205827 104.1632939 104.8946909
2011Q1 100.031924 109.234274 104.4787915 105.3128874
2011Q2 100.7088299 109.9504871 104.809586 105.745908
2011Q3 100.6863649 110.6709034 105.1575895 106.192944
2011Q4 101.8173004 111.3963635 105.5221645 106.6491824
2012Q1 102.6709705 112.1302297 105.8994869 107.1133121
2012Q2 103.1291383 112.8699804 106.300392 107.587002
2012Q3 103.2781167 113.6147748 106.7159565 108.0668296
2012Q4 103.3975359 114.364613 107.1455432 108.5517923
2013Q1 104.4173288 115.1161324 107.5885146 109.0455974
2013Q2 104.6969589 115.8693331 108.0391345 109.5417422
2013Q3 105.5884648 116.6242151 108.4974027 110.0395919
2013Q4 106.5083475 117.3799376 108.9614073 110.5427291
2014Q1 106.1412221 118.1365008 109.4247745 111.0512073
2014Q2 107.5121784 118.8922234 109.8938781 111.5639182
2014Q3 108.8186956 119.6487866 110.3680806 112.0862753
2014Q4 109.3690882 120.4061904 110.8480194 112.612935
2015Q1 110.3540011 121.1644348 111.3343319 113.1426895
2015Q2 111.0374101 121.9235199 111.8295675 113.6753149
2015Q3 111.4819807 122.6842862 112.3273527 114.2070031
2015Q4 111.6877128 123.4458931 112.8251378 114.7364268
2016Q1 112.3350596 124.2100219 113.3190988 115.2639329
2016Q2 112.695682 124.9766726 113.8009497 115.7911919
2016Q3 113.4949631 125.7458452 114.2808885 116.3174261
2016Q4 114.1245743 126.5183803 114.762102 116.8439719
2017Q1 114.6796964 127.2951185 115.2433156 117.3745386
2017Q2 115.3217225 128.0760598 115.7309028 117.9136489
2017Q3 116.2315551 128.8603637 116.2293253 118.4712629
2017Q4 117.5416194 129.64803 116.7424073 119.0464152
2018q1 118.4975643 130.2712631 117.2822588 119.640028
2018q2 119.1265844 130.917346 117.8444182 120.2528892
2018q3 119.869703 131.5784476 118.4231492 120.8764933
2018q4 120.0393729 132.2508178 119.0159024 121.5065693
2019q1 120.6914491 132.9338243 119.6220402 122.1426046
2019q2 121.6923241 133.6285081 120.2428376 122.7852176
2019q3 123.0703746 134.3284286 120.8725581 123.4284315
2019q4 123.8596056 135.0231395 121.5086523 124.055797
2020q1 122.1717745 135.71464 122.1460212 124.676049
2020q2 112.5307416 136.4059492 122.7859396 125.2934038
2020q3 121.2625331 137.090099 123.4290449 125.8945509
2020q4 122.5176173 137.7781869 124.0746996 126.5003108
2021q1 124.0925322 138.4423611 124.7178049 127.0651286
2021q2 125.97841 139.1071506 125.3628223 127.6291534
2021q3 127.0047058 139.7860459 126.0078396 128.2188322
2021q4 129.1595725 140.481118 126.652857 128.8379315
2022q1 128.5169552 141.1957992 127.2985117 129.4920561
2022q2 128.3354616 141.9199672 127.9435291 130.1640716
2022q3 129.1802639 142.6436695 128.5866344 130.8371524
2022q4 130.0014188 143.3643279 129.2284649 131.5059718
2023q1 130.7244372 144.0825389 129.8671086 132.1735271
2023q2 131.3930666 144.7980195 130.5038401 132.8380289
2023q3 132.9614784 145.5117808 131.1373849 133.5025905
2023q4 134.0764519 146.231008 131.7683801 134.1796425
2024q1 134.606153 146.952273 132.3955512 134.8642245
2024q2 135.3935514 147.6767147 133.0195354 135.557771
2024q3 136.105219 148.4053629 133.6396953 136.262792
2024q4 136.7576499 149.1380969 134.2573058 136.9777933
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Economic Policy Institute

Sources: GDP data from Table 1.1.6 of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Forecasts of Potential GDP from CBO (2025b).

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