Figure E
Exchange rates explain nearly 80% of the movement in soybean prices: U.S. soybean prices and the real value of the U.S. dollar, January 1997–May 2020
| Date | Real dollar index | Soybean price index |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-1997 | 89.846 | 124.4 |
| Feb-1997 | 91.3934 | 127.1 |
| Mar-1997 | 92.3092 | 144.8 |
| Apr-1997 | 92.6654 | 142.4 |
| May-1997 | 91.5753 | 149.8 |
| Jun-1997 | 91.1354 | 140.0 |
| Jul-1997 | 92.1604 | 137.1 |
| Aug-1997 | 93.7113 | 124.5 |
| Sep-1997 | 93.9532 | 120.6 |
| Oct-1997 | 94.6141 | 119.1 |
| Nov-1997 | 95.9972 | 124.5 |
| Dec-1997 | 99.3624 | 117.8 |
| Jan-1998 | 102.1075 | 113.2 |
| Feb-1998 | 100.3897 | 116.9 |
| Mar-1998 | 100.0598 | 113.3 |
| Apr-1998 | 99.7845 | 107.8 |
| May-1998 | 100.562 | 110.2 |
| Jun-1998 | 102.727 | 104.8 |
| Jul-1998 | 103.0308 | 109.6 |
| Aug-1998 | 104.6407 | 93.7 |
| Sep-1998 | 102.8371 | 90.5 |
| Oct-1998 | 99.946 | 92.2 |
| Nov-1998 | 99.6076 | 96.0 |
| Dec-1998 | 98.7106 | 92.7 |
| Jan-1999 | 98.7733 | 91.8 |
| Feb-1999 | 99.9907 | 84.0 |
| Mar-1999 | 101.0852 | 78.5 |
| Apr-1999 | 100.998 | 80.8 |
| May-1999 | 100.7253 | 79.6 |
| Jun-1999 | 101.1534 | 79.1 |
| Jul-1999 | 101.4274 | 70.5 |
| Aug-1999 | 100.4354 | 79.9 |
| Sep-1999 | 100.0213 | 82.3 |
| Oct-1999 | 99.5535 | 80.0 |
| Nov-1999 | 99.8412 | 78.6 |
| Dec-1999 | 99.9463 | 76.5 |
| Jan-2000 | 99.8799 | 79.6 |
| Feb-2000 | 101.2479 | 83.9 |
| Mar-2000 | 101.7325 | 87.1 |
| Apr-2000 | 102.299 | 87.3 |
| May-2000 | 104.5402 | 91.6 |
| Jun-2000 | 103.6564 | 87.0 |
| Jul-2000 | 103.9295 | 80.8 |
| Aug-2000 | 104.4002 | 77.8 |
| Sep-2000 | 105.8875 | 82.8 |
| Oct-2000 | 107.3917 | 79.4 |
| Nov-2000 | 108.0006 | 79.1 |
| Dec-2000 | 107.1324 | 84.1 |
| Jan-2001 | 107.4905 | 82.8 |
| Feb-2001 | 108.2975 | 75.0 |
| Mar-2001 | 109.891 | 76.2 |
| Apr-2001 | 110.5281 | 73.3 |
| May-2001 | 110.5766 | 76.5 |
| Jun-2001 | 111.4064 | 80.8 |
| Jul-2001 | 111.5364 | 87.0 |
| Aug-2001 | 109.554 | 88.4 |
| Sep-2001 | 110.1595 | 80.1 |
| Oct-2001 | 110.54 | 75.3 |
| Nov-2001 | 111.0101 | 74.7 |
| Dec-2001 | 110.9411 | 73.6 |
| Jan-2002 | 112.1863 | 74.5 |
| Feb-2002 | 112.8094 | 73.8 |
| Mar-2002 | 112.2398 | 76.7 |
| Apr-2002 | 112.0559 | 78.3 |
| May-2002 | 110.5853 | 81.4 |
| Jun-2002 | 109.1517 | 86.2 |
| Jul-2002 | 107.5697 | 97.8 |
| Aug-2002 | 108.8697 | 100.4 |
| Sep-2002 | 109.7111 | 99.5 |
| Oct-2002 | 110.5092 | 92.6 |
| Nov-2002 | 109.2711 | 95.9 |
| Dec-2002 | 108.679 | 95.4 |
| Jan-2003 | 107.366 | 93.3 |
| Feb-2003 | 107.5059 | 97.4 |
| Mar-2003 | 107.0154 | 97.6 |
| Apr-2003 | 105.837 | 105.5 |
| May-2003 | 102.2899 | 109.6 |
| Jun-2003 | 101.7892 | 108.0 |
| Jul-2003 | 103.0553 | 102.0 |
| Aug-2003 | 104.4244 | 96.6 |
| Sep-2003 | 103.3567 | 104.8 |
| Oct-2003 | 101.047 | 125.1 |
| Nov-2003 | 100.6482 | 131.3 |
| Dec-2003 | 99.2942 | 134.2 |
| Jan-2004 | 97.8175 | 141.8 |
| Feb-2004 | 98.4235 | 144.0 |
| Mar-2004 | 99.3359 | 162.6 |
| Apr-2004 | 99.9257 | 165.9 |
| May-2004 | 101.6737 | 178.4 |
| Jun-2004 | 100.8244 | 154.4 |
| Jul-2004 | 100.05 | 153.7 |
| Aug-2004 | 100.0206 | 99.1 |
| Sep-2004 | 99.7427 | 96.0 |
| Oct-2004 | 98.5743 | 84.2 |
| Nov-2004 | 96.3623 | 85.7 |
| Dec-2004 | 95.2261 | 94.3 |
| Jan-2005 | 95.612 | 92.6 |
| Feb-2005 | 95.8581 | 91.7 |
| Mar-2005 | 95.4702 | 112.4 |
| Apr-2005 | 96.4072 | 102.9 |
| May-2005 | 96.6458 | 107.7 |
| Jun-2005 | 97.5106 | 116.0 |
| Jul-2005 | 98.178 | 118.3 |
| Aug-2005 | 97.3399 | 109.2 |
| Sep-2005 | 98.2219 | 93.2 |
| Oct-2005 | 99.1157 | 88.5 |
| Nov-2005 | 99.2465 | 97.7 |
| Dec-2005 | 98.4504 | 100.9 |
| Jan-2006 | 97.3054 | 96.3 |
| Feb-2006 | 97.4982 | 96.7 |
| Mar-2006 | 97.6888 | 95.4 |
| Apr-2006 | 97.2008 | 92.6 |
| May-2006 | 95.2746 | 98.1 |
| Jun-2006 | 96.521 | 96.7 |
| Jul-2006 | 96.6865 | 98.6 |
| Aug-2006 | 96.2415 | 90.7 |
| Sep-2006 | 95.9166 | 87.0 |
| Oct-2006 | 95.6514 | 91.8 |
| Nov-2006 | 94.6661 | 109.1 |
| Dec-2006 | 94.0612 | 108.9 |
| Jan-2007 | 94.9926 | 108.4 |
| Feb-2007 | 94.8199 | 123.1 |
| Mar-2007 | 94.5743 | 115.9 |
| Apr-2007 | 93.4545 | 119.4 |
| May-2007 | 92.7996 | 125.3 |
| Jun-2007 | 92.5428 | 131.9 |
| Jul-2007 | 91.1791 | 140.6 |
| Aug-2007 | 91.3879 | 128.5 |
| Sep-2007 | 90.3068 | 145.3 |
| Oct-2007 | 88.3764 | 151.1 |
| Nov-2007 | 87.3326 | 173.2 |
| Dec-2007 | 87.9654 | 192.5 |
| Jan-2008 | 87.3029 | 211.2 |
| Feb-2008 | 86.2413 | 219.4 |
| Mar-2008 | 84.5722 | 228.7 |
| Apr-2008 | 84.1423 | 228.2 |
| May-2008 | 84.5052 | 226.9 |
| Jun-2008 | 84.9997 | 242.6 |
| Jul-2008 | 84.6115 | 259.5 |
| Aug-2008 | 86.681 | 203.0 |
| Sep-2008 | 88.7885 | 200.6 |
| Oct-2008 | 93.8688 | 144.1 |
| Nov-2008 | 94.705 | 147.2 |
| Dec-2008 | 93.1988 | 135.1 |
| Jan-2009 | 93.9809 | 161.9 |
| Feb-2009 | 96.6073 | 164.7 |
| Mar-2009 | 96.8163 | 150.9 |
| Apr-2009 | 94.4326 | 176.1 |
| May-2009 | 91.6955 | 193.3 |
| Jun-2009 | 91.0825 | 213.0 |
| Jul-2009 | 90.6763 | 182.5 |
| Aug-2009 | 89.618 | 200.0 |
| Sep-2009 | 88.9744 | 162.1 |
| Oct-2009 | 87.8368 | 170.1 |
| Nov-2009 | 87.3979 | 160.0 |
| Dec-2009 | 87.6292 | 176.2 |
| Jan-2010 | 87.655 | 167.1 |
| Feb-2010 | 88.6481 | 157.9 |
| Mar-2010 | 87.7638 | 160.1 |
| Apr-2010 | 87.1576 | 163.2 |
| May-2010 | 89.3522 | 161.7 |
| Jun-2010 | 89.7047 | 163.4 |
| Jul-2010 | 88.2443 | 174.3 |
| Aug-2010 | 87.4789 | 176.2 |
| Sep-2010 | 86.5285 | 173.3 |
| Oct-2010 | 84.1785 | 192.2 |
| Nov-2010 | 84.2268 | 219.1 |
| Dec-2010 | 84.8632 | 216.2 |
| Jan-2011 | 83.8443 | 227.4 |
| Feb-2011 | 83.2495 | 229.8 |
| Mar-2011 | 82.555 | 214.5 |
| Apr-2011 | 81.274 | 224.5 |
| May-2011 | 81.294 | 226.2 |
| Jun-2011 | 81.0863 | 233.2 |
| Jul-2011 | 80.5208 | 232.7 |
| Aug-2011 | 81.0682 | 222.2 |
| Sep-2011 | 83.46 | 227.9 |
| Oct-2011 | 84.0356 | 205.5 |
| Nov-2011 | 84.5622 | 201.2 |
| Dec-2011 | 85.2467 | 190.3 |
| Jan-2012 | 84.5898 | 206.5 |
| Feb-2012 | 83.3299 | 214.3 |
| Mar-2012 | 83.6939 | 229.9 |
| Apr-2012 | 83.8977 | 243.1 |
| May-2012 | 85.1276 | 240.7 |
| Jun-2012 | 86.2289 | 245.1 |
| Jul-2012 | 85.7197 | 274.7 |
| Aug-2012 | 85.1596 | 282.8 |
| Sep-2012 | 84.0119 | 289.8 |
| Oct-2012 | 83.8167 | 263.1 |
| Nov-2012 | 84.0993 | 240.7 |
| Dec-2012 | 83.3883 | 252.3 |
| Jan-2013 | 83.266 | 246.8 |
| Feb-2013 | 84.1226 | 244.9 |
| Mar-2013 | 84.5212 | 254.4 |
| Apr-2013 | 83.9251 | 242.5 |
| May-2013 | 84.2258 | 254.6 |
| Jun-2013 | 84.8774 | 265.5 |
| Jul-2013 | 85.3251 | 274.6 |
| Aug-2013 | 85.2633 | 225.6 |
| Sep-2013 | 84.8615 | 241.6 |
| Oct-2013 | 83.9076 | 222.2 |
| Nov-2013 | 84.5661 | 226.3 |
| Dec-2013 | 84.7464 | 227.4 |
| Jan-2014 | 85.5269 | 224.9 |
| Feb-2014 | 85.6968 | 227.1 |
| Mar-2014 | 85.6206 | 241.0 |
| Apr-2014 | 85.1966 | 257.9 |
| May-2014 | 84.8808 | 255.4 |
| Jun-2014 | 84.9584 | 250.3 |
| Jul-2014 | 84.7193 | 212.6 |
| Aug-2014 | 85.3542 | 196.2 |
| Sep-2014 | 86.4823 | 180.9 |
| Oct-2014 | 87.4385 | 164.1 |
| Nov-2014 | 88.6746 | 175.4 |
| Dec-2014 | 90.4614 | 177.6 |
| Jan-2015 | 91.964 | 168.5 |
| Feb-2015 | 93.1384 | 163.5 |
| Mar-2015 | 94.8318 | 167.0 |
| Apr-2015 | 93.8084 | 164.5 |
| May-2015 | 93.1702 | 159.8 |
| Jun-2015 | 93.959 | 164.4 |
| Jul-2015 | 95.5444 | 176.4 |
| Aug-2015 | 97.1718 | 169.5 |
| Sep-2015 | 97.6601 | 151.3 |
| Oct-2015 | 96.7364 | 152.9 |
| Nov-2015 | 98.2176 | 144.8 |
| Dec-2015 | 98.9911 | 146.7 |
| Jan-2016 | 101.1672 | 147.9 |
| Feb-2016 | 99.8781 | 145.6 |
| Mar-2016 | 97.8761 | 150.0 |
| Apr-2016 | 96.433 | 156.7 |
| May-2016 | 97.495 | 180.2 |
| Jun-2016 | 97.9256 | 195.7 |
| Jul-2016 | 98.4625 | 186.0 |
| Aug-2016 | 97.6919 | 170.2 |
| Sep-2016 | 98.3665 | 161.4 |
| Oct-2016 | 99.2993 | 158.0 |
| Nov-2016 | 101.6476 | 163.4 |
| Dec-2016 | 103.3297 | 170.8 |
| Jan-2017 | 103.0893 | 168.4 |
| Feb-2017 | 101.779 | 173.1 |
| Mar-2017 | 101.0801 | 164.5 |
| Apr-2017 | 100.0849 | 154.8 |
| May-2017 | 99.5332 | 161.3 |
| Jun-2017 | 98.2288 | 155.4 |
| Jul-2017 | 96.7998 | 171.9 |
| Aug-2017 | 95.8465 | 153.7 |
| Sep-2017 | 95.1008 | 157.7 |
| Oct-2017 | 96.6601 | 158.2 |
| Nov-2017 | 96.8122 | 159.9 |
| Dec-2017 | 96.4675 | 161.9 |
| Jan-2018 | 94.3155 | 159.7 |
| Feb-2018 | 94.7214 | 168.5 |
| Mar-2018 | 95.0048 | 172.9 |
| Apr-2018 | 94.999 | 174.8 |
| May-2018 | 97.5243 | 169.5 |
| Jun-2018 | 99.0216 | 159.0 |
| Jul-2018 | 99.3349 | 143.3 |
| Aug-2018 | 100.2812 | 143.1 |
| Sep-2018 | 100.2619 | 131.5 |
| Oct-2018 | 100.9126 | 136.8 |
| Nov-2018 | 101.9838 | 140.8 |
| Dec-2018 | 102.0031 | 148.4 |
| Jan-2019 | 100.4012 | 143.6 |
| Feb-2019 | 100.403 | 148.6 |
| Mar-2019 | 100.7722 | 144.8 |
| Apr-2019 | 100.7457 | 145.8 |
| May-2019 | 101.6032 | 134.0 |
| Jun-2019 | 101.1344 | 140.4 |
| Jul-2019 | 100.9148 | 146.4 |
| Aug-2019 | 102.8088 | 144.5 |
| Sep-2019 | 102.7664 | 141.6 |
| Oct-2019 | 102.2026 | 153.6 |
| Nov-2019 | 101.9538 | 152.2 |
| Dec-2019 | 101.4637 | 151.8 |
| Jan-2020 | 100.8096 | 158.5 |
| Feb-2020 | 102.0839 | 149.5 |
| Mar-2020 | 105.8784 | 148.2 |
| Apr-2020 | 107.4852 | 143.7 |
| May-2020 | 107.0985 | 144.2 |
Note: The Real Broad Dollar index (Goods only) was extrapolated to May 2020 using the percentage change Real Broad Dollar index (Goods and Services) for each corresponding month.
Source: Author’s analysis of Federal Reserve, Nominal/Real Indexes, [Foreign Exchange Rates - H.10] Real Broad Dollar Index—Monthly Index and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index (PPI) commodity price series data.
This chart appears in:
Previous chart: « The U.S. manufacturing trade deficit has been growing above trend since 2016: U.S. manufacturing imports, exports, and trade deficit, 1997–2019 (annual)