Figure C
Assumptions that interest rates will exceed growth rates are usually wrong: Five-year average growth rate of GDP (G) and effective interest rates on federal debt (R), 1913–2018
| G minus R | Growth rate (G) | Interest rate (R) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1913 | 1.79% | 3.70% | 1.90% |
| 1914 | 2.06% | 3.97% | 1.91% |
| 1915 | 0.86% | 2.79% | 1.93% |
| 1916 | 3.71% | 5.65% | 1.94% |
| 1917 | 7.46% | 9.24% | 1.78% |
| 1918 | 10.80% | 12.70% | 1.89% |
| 1919 | 13.51% | 15.68% | 2.17% |
| 1920 | 14.82% | 17.43% | 2.62% |
| 1921 | 10.28% | 13.36% | 3.08% |
| 1922 | 3.05% | 6.76% | 3.71% |
| 1923 | -0.59% | 3.57% | 4.16% |
| 1924 | -1.86% | 2.52% | 4.38% |
| 1925 | -2.91% | 1.49% | 4.41% |
| 1926 | -1.22% | 3.19% | 4.41% |
| 1927 | 1.18% | 5.56% | 4.39% |
| 1928 | -0.26% | 4.00% | 4.26% |
| 1929 | -1.05% | 3.13% | 4.18% |
| 1930 | -2.20% | 1.93% | 4.13% |
| 1931 | -6.00% | -1.96% | 4.04% |
| 1932 | -10.21% | -6.34% | 3.87% |
| 1933 | -13.05% | -9.34% | 3.71% |
| 1934 | -12.45% | -8.92% | 3.53% |
| 1935 | -8.87% | -5.56% | 3.31% |
| 1936 | -3.27% | -0.23% | 3.04% |
| 1937 | 3.10% | 5.97% | 2.87% |
| 1938 | 6.49% | 9.20% | 2.71% |
| 1939 | 5.43% | 8.01% | 2.58% |
| 1940 | 4.47% | 6.96% | 2.49% |
| 1941 | 5.62% | 8.07% | 2.44% |
| 1942 | 8.82% | 11.14% | 2.32% |
| 1943 | 13.71% | 15.85% | 2.14% |
| 1944 | 17.01% | 18.96% | 1.95% |
| 1945 | 16.67% | 18.43% | 1.75% |
| 1946 | 13.22% | 14.90% | 1.68% |
| 1947 | 8.76% | 10.44% | 1.68% |
| 1948 | 5.64% | 7.41% | 1.76% |
| 1949 | 3.43% | 5.34% | 1.91% |
| 1950 | 2.26% | 4.32% | 2.06% |
| 1951 | 5.49% | 7.65% | 2.15% |
| 1952 | 6.29% | 8.53% | 2.24% |
| 1953 | 5.64% | 7.96% | 2.32% |
| 1954 | 4.80% | 7.14% | 2.34% |
| 1955 | 5.65% | 7.97% | 2.32% |
| 1956 | 3.73% | 6.08% | 2.35% |
| 1957 | 2.99% | 5.39% | 2.40% |
| 1958 | 2.00% | 4.42% | 2.43% |
| 1959 | 2.97% | 5.47% | 2.50% |
| 1960 | 2.98% | 5.64% | 2.67% |
| 1961 | 1.75% | 4.54% | 2.79% |
| 1962 | 1.94% | 4.82% | 2.89% |
| 1963 | 2.49% | 5.49% | 3.00% |
| 1964 | 2.42% | 5.58% | 3.16% |
| 1965 | 2.60% | 5.86% | 3.25% |
| 1966 | 3.99% | 7.39% | 3.40% |
| 1967 | 3.79% | 7.40% | 3.61% |
| 1968 | 3.96% | 7.75% | 3.79% |
| 1969 | 4.16% | 8.19% | 4.03% |
| 1970 | 3.73% | 8.11% | 4.38% |
| 1971 | 2.73% | 7.44% | 4.71% |
| 1972 | 2.85% | 7.79% | 4.95% |
| 1973 | 3.36% | 8.57% | 5.22% |
| 1974 | 3.05% | 8.65% | 5.60% |
| 1975 | 3.10% | 8.96% | 5.86% |
| 1976 | 3.76% | 9.85% | 6.10% |
| 1977 | 3.86% | 10.18% | 6.32% |
| 1978 | 3.82% | 10.40% | 6.58% |
| 1979 | 4.18% | 11.04% | 6.86% |
| 1980 | 3.76% | 11.14% | 7.38% |
| 1981 | 3.11% | 11.35% | 8.24% |
| 1982 | 1.00% | 10.35% | 9.35% |
| 1983 | -0.89% | 9.26% | 10.15% |
| 1984 | -1.74% | 9.02% | 10.76% |
| 1985 | -2.23% | 8.86% | 11.09% |
| 1986 | -3.20% | 7.67% | 10.86% |
| 1987 | -2.61% | 7.63% | 10.24% |
| 1988 | -1.98% | 7.82% | 9.81% |
| 1989 | -2.28% | 7.11% | 9.38% |
| 1990 | -2.21% | 6.74% | 8.95% |
| 1991 | -2.51% | 6.15% | 8.66% |
| 1992 | -2.26% | 6.13% | 8.40% |
| 1993 | -2.29% | 5.69% | 7.98% |
| 1994 | -2.18% | 5.27% | 7.45% |
| 1995 | -1.94% | 5.10% | 7.04% |
| 1996 | -1.21% | 5.48% | 6.69% |
| 1997 | -0.84% | 5.68% | 6.52% |
| 1998 | -0.83% | 5.68% | 6.51% |
| 1999 | -0.79% | 5.73% | 6.53% |
| 2000 | -0.49% | 6.00% | 6.49% |
| 2001 | -0.64% | 5.78% | 6.42% |
| 2002 | -1.02% | 5.11% | 6.13% |
| 2003 | -0.83% | 4.83% | 5.66% |
| 2004 | -0.27% | 4.93% | 5.20% |
| 2005 | 0.17% | 4.91% | 4.74% |
| 2006 | 0.88% | 5.32% | 4.44% |
| 2007 | 1.24% | 5.66% | 4.42% |
| 2008 | 0.93% | 5.43% | 4.49% |
| 2009 | -0.65% | 3.63% | 4.28% |
| 2010 | -1.13% | 2.84% | 3.97% |
| 2011 | -1.15% | 2.39% | 3.54% |
| 2012 | -0.71% | 2.30% | 3.01% |
| 2013 | -0.13% | 2.39% | 2.53% |
| 2014 | 1.28% | 3.65% | 2.37% |
| 2015 | 1.78% | 4.01% | 2.23% |
| 2016 | 1.99% | 4.13% | 2.14% |
| 2017 | 2.04% | 4.22% | 2.18% |
| 2018 | 2.05% | 4.39% | 2.34% |
Source: Data file accompanying Kogan et al., Difference Between Economic Growth Rates and Treasury Interest Rates Significantly Affects Long-Term Budget Outlook, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, February 2015; downloadable at https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2-27-15bud-appendix.xls
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