Figure F
Productivity growth is spurred by a tightening labor market: Average unemployment gap and subsequent productivity growth, 1951–2015
| Date | Unemployment gap | Productivity growth |
|---|---|---|
| 1951, Q4 | -0.42917% | 3.17255% |
| 1952Q1 | -0.56250% | 3.41140% |
| 1952Q2 | -0.81333% | 3.49372% |
| 1952Q3 | -1.11583% | 3.37801% |
| 1952Q4 | -1.47667% | 2.73171% |
| 1953Q1 | -1.79417% | 2.15894% |
| 1953Q2 | -2.05333% | 2.03680% |
| 1953Q3 | -2.22000% | 2.02080% |
| 1953Q4 | -2.26917% | 2.69427% |
| 1954Q1 | -2.13417% | 2.86175% |
| 1954Q2 | -1.91417% | 2.46236% |
| 1954Q3 | -1.68500% | 2.20297% |
| 1954Q4 | -1.52083% | 2.19284% |
| 1955Q1 | -1.38833% | 1.64379% |
| 1955Q2 | -1.27250% | 1.76805% |
| 1955Q3 | -1.19750% | 2.33798% |
| 1955Q4 | -1.08167% | 2.81747% |
| 1956Q1 | -0.97583% | 3.10637% |
| 1956Q2 | -0.84583% | 3.03886% |
| 1956Q3 | -0.73250% | 3.24550% |
| 1956Q4 | -0.70250% | 2.74865% |
| 1957Q1 | -0.80500% | 3.25580% |
| 1957Q2 | -0.94917% | 2.75066% |
| 1957Q3 | -1.10167% | 2.54545% |
| 1957Q4 | -1.14583% | 2.11530% |
| 1958Q1 | -1.01500% | 2.50373% |
| 1958Q2 | -0.76667% | 3.11168% |
| 1958Q3 | -0.50167% | 2.87014% |
| 1958Q4 | -0.31917% | 2.82393% |
| 1959Q1 | -0.17000% | 2.77922% |
| 1959Q2 | -0.09583% | 2.81406% |
| 1959Q3 | 0.00250% | 2.99912% |
| 1959Q4 | 0.12417% | 3.24117% |
| 1960Q1 | 0.21750% | 2.64909% |
| 1960Q2 | 0.30167% | 3.33994% |
| 1960Q3 | 0.41000% | 3.88209% |
| 1960Q4 | 0.51750% | 4.05891% |
| 1961Q1 | 0.55000% | 4.25507% |
| 1961Q2 | 0.50750% | 3.26810% |
| 1961Q3 | 0.45667% | 3.24489% |
| 1961Q4 | 0.43083% | 2.86891% |
| 1962Q1 | 0.40667% | 3.10772% |
| 1962Q2 | 0.43333% | 3.05422% |
| 1962Q3 | 0.45167% | 3.31142% |
| 1962Q4 | 0.43833% | 3.39846% |
| 1963Q1 | 0.48417% | 3.56183% |
| 1963Q2 | 0.52167% | 3.20499% |
| 1963Q3 | 0.50917% | 2.67545% |
| 1963Q4 | 0.44667% | 2.79133% |
| 1964Q1 | 0.33333% | 2.46860% |
| 1964Q2 | 0.17667% | 2.65227% |
| 1964Q3 | 0.01917% | 2.44264% |
| 1964Q4 | -0.09000% | 2.65638% |
| 1965Q1 | -0.16000% | 2.86331% |
| 1965Q2 | -0.24000% | 3.05529% |
| 1965Q3 | -0.35500% | 2.40899% |
| 1965Q4 | -0.48833% | 2.01991% |
| 1966Q1 | -0.66417% | 1.74749% |
| 1966Q2 | -0.84083% | 1.87787% |
| 1966Q3 | -1.00083% | 1.91449% |
| 1966Q4 | -1.17750% | 1.66190% |
| 1967Q1 | -1.33667% | 1.67751% |
| 1967Q2 | -1.46917% | 1.76805% |
| 1967Q3 | -1.58417% | 2.28255% |
| 1967Q4 | -1.68917% | 2.00560% |
| 1968Q1 | -1.80083% | 2.21691% |
| 1968Q2 | -1.91167% | 2.02321% |
| 1968Q3 | -1.99500% | 2.30628% |
| 1968Q4 | -2.06167% | 2.20916% |
| 1969Q1 | -2.11000% | 2.19909% |
| 1969Q2 | -2.15000% | 2.83487% |
| 1969Q3 | -2.17333% | 2.84838% |
| 1969Q4 | -2.18833% | 3.23387% |
| 1970Q1 | -2.16333% | 3.48546% |
| 1970Q2 | -2.08917% | 3.24498% |
| 1970Q3 | -1.98250% | 2.27807% |
| 1970Q4 | -1.83500% | 2.66227% |
| 1971Q1 | -1.66333% | 1.49554% |
| 1971Q2 | -1.47500% | 1.62961% |
| 1971Q3 | -1.28000% | 1.02126% |
| 1971Q4 | -1.07667% | 1.29043% |
| 1972Q1 | -0.89167% | 1.56769% |
| 1972Q2 | -0.71500% | 1.35640% |
| 1972Q3 | -0.56500% | 1.61038% |
| 1972Q4 | -0.44083% | 1.31528% |
| 1973Q1 | -0.39250% | 1.22358% |
| 1973Q2 | -0.40333% | 1.34558% |
| 1973Q3 | -0.45667% | 1.74207% |
| 1973Q4 | -0.56000% | 1.54529% |
| 1974Q1 | -0.64667% | 2.09166% |
| 1974Q2 | -0.72500% | 1.86362% |
| 1974Q3 | -0.77667% | 2.45764% |
| 1974Q4 | -0.74333% | 1.97193% |
| 1975Q1 | -0.55750% | 1.59490% |
| 1975Q2 | -0.30333% | 1.49903% |
| 1975Q3 | -0.07167% | 1.33546% |
| 1975Q4 | 0.16917% | 1.37473% |
| 1976Q1 | 0.38667% | 1.00244% |
| 1976Q2 | 0.60500% | 0.89395% |
| 1976Q3 | 0.84167% | 0.65674% |
| 1976Q4 | 1.08667% | 0.63807% |
| 1977Q1 | 1.28167% | 0.64032% |
| 1977Q2 | 1.43500% | 0.37125% |
| 1977Q3 | 1.53750% | 0.13614% |
| 1977Q4 | 1.53083% | 0.69182% |
| 1978Q1 | 1.36500% | 1.28902% |
| 1978Q2 | 1.11500% | 0.87922% |
| 1978Q3 | 0.89833% | 1.22399% |
| 1978Q4 | 0.69083% | 0.61005% |
| 1979Q1 | 0.53500% | 0.59231% |
| 1979Q2 | 0.37167% | 0.45939% |
| 1979Q3 | 0.21750% | 0.78850% |
| 1979Q4 | 0.05667% | 1.03594% |
| 1980Q1 | -0.04417% | 1.03678% |
| 1980Q2 | -0.02667% | 1.74975% |
| 1980Q3 | 0.04250% | 1.83482% |
| 1980Q4 | 0.11333% | 1.88613% |
| 1981Q1 | 0.21083% | 1.36286% |
| 1981Q2 | 0.33583% | 1.55128% |
| 1981Q3 | 0.46167% | 1.22660% |
| 1981Q4 | 0.66333% | 1.91887% |
| 1982Q1 | 0.91583% | 2.06110% |
| 1982Q2 | 1.23583% | 2.22693% |
| 1982Q3 | 1.58083% | 2.48315% |
| 1982Q4 | 1.99250% | 2.31501% |
| 1983Q1 | 2.34583% | 2.46008% |
| 1983Q2 | 2.59083% | 2.05750% |
| 1983Q3 | 2.74417% | 2.20005% |
| 1983Q4 | 2.84750% | 1.77659% |
| 1984Q1 | 2.90083% | 1.56929% |
| 1984Q2 | 2.91917% | 1.74099% |
| 1984Q3 | 2.92917% | 1.72335% |
| 1984Q4 | 2.86417% | 1.62392% |
| 1985Q1 | 2.74750% | 1.63240% |
| 1985Q2 | 2.58083% | 1.49699% |
| 1985Q3 | 2.36333% | 1.27561% |
| 1985Q4 | 2.06250% | 1.29172% |
| 1986Q1 | 1.78667% | 0.95175% |
| 1986Q2 | 1.55167% | 0.98351% |
| 1986Q3 | 1.35833% | 0.91418% |
| 1986Q4 | 1.22333% | 0.92916% |
| 1987Q1 | 1.12083% | 1.41576% |
| 1987Q2 | 1.02750% | 1.44909% |
| 1987Q3 | 0.91667% | 1.25612% |
| 1987Q4 | 0.80583% | 1.02259% |
| 1988Q1 | 0.68000% | 1.00226% |
| 1988Q2 | 0.53667% | 1.44919% |
| 1988Q3 | 0.40250% | 1.42601% |
| 1988Q4 | 0.26833% | 1.50939% |
| 1989Q1 | 0.12583% | 1.99025% |
| 1989Q2 | -0.03333% | 2.11856% |
| 1989Q3 | -0.16750% | 2.24081% |
| 1989Q4 | -0.27667% | 2.48200% |
| 1990Q1 | -0.37667% | 1.97365% |
| 1990Q2 | -0.45167% | 1.47408% |
| 1990Q3 | -0.46750% | 1.57679% |
| 1990Q4 | -0.44083% | 1.98382% |
| 1991Q1 | -0.35583% | 2.04151% |
| 1991Q2 | -0.23500% | 1.58209% |
| 1991Q3 | -0.10500% | 1.32972% |
| 1991Q4 | 0.06000% | 1.38341% |
| 1992Q1 | 0.26000% | 0.72356% |
| 1992Q2 | 0.47917% | 0.62334% |
| 1992Q3 | 0.69250% | 0.28111% |
| 1992Q4 | 0.88250% | 0.43227% |
| 1993Q1 | 1.06583% | 0.99861% |
| 1993Q2 | 1.24333% | 1.41300% |
| 1993Q3 | 1.36417% | 1.34413% |
| 1993Q4 | 1.43583% | 1.13025% |
| 1994Q1 | 1.46750% | 1.03219% |
| 1994Q2 | 1.44917% | 1.37474% |
| 1994Q3 | 1.40667% | 1.71278% |
| 1994Q4 | 1.31417% | 1.59871% |
| 1995Q1 | 1.18750% | 1.85366% |
| 1995Q2 | 1.06083% | 1.93519% |
| 1995Q3 | 0.93333% | 2.33622% |
| 1995Q4 | 0.81333% | 2.19651% |
| 1996Q1 | 0.70083% | 2.07312% |
| 1996Q2 | 0.59500% | 1.82721% |
| 1996Q3 | 0.49667% | 2.11271% |
| 1996Q4 | 0.41417% | 2.51015% |
| 1997Q1 | 0.32167% | 2.34355% |
| 1997Q2 | 0.24500% | 2.59609% |
| 1997Q3 | 0.17583% | 2.48820% |
| 1997Q4 | 0.12167% | 2.71011% |
| 1998Q1 | 0.06667% | 2.51975% |
| 1998Q2 | -0.02250% | 2.75297% |
| 1998Q3 | -0.10500% | 2.43136% |
| 1998Q4 | -0.18833% | 2.59068% |
| 1999Q1 | -0.27250% | 2.85705% |
| 1999Q2 | -0.35750% | 2.88197% |
| 1999Q3 | -0.43583% | 2.77873% |
| 1999Q4 | -0.52333% | 2.35895% |
| 2000Q1 | -0.61167% | 2.84221% |
| 2000Q2 | -0.69333% | 2.72381% |
| 2000Q3 | -0.76000% | 3.10514% |
| 2000Q4 | -0.81833% | 3.02576% |
| 2001Q1 | -0.84417% | 3.15061% |
| 2001Q2 | -0.83833% | 2.96511% |
| 2001Q3 | -0.80833% | 3.04742% |
| 2001Q4 | -0.71250% | 2.95583% |
| 2002Q1 | -0.59250% | 2.59461% |
| 2002Q2 | -0.46500% | 2.57767% |
| 2002Q3 | -0.33750% | 2.55390% |
| 2002Q4 | -0.19417% | 2.69385% |
| 2003Q1 | -0.03500% | 2.44576% |
| 2003Q2 | 0.14917% | 2.02395% |
| 2003Q3 | 0.32500% | 1.39805% |
| 2003Q4 | 0.48333% | 1.25575% |
| 2004Q1 | 0.60833% | 1.26979% |
| 2004Q2 | 0.70833% | 1.19039% |
| 2004Q3 | 0.75833% | 1.34394% |
| 2004Q4 | 0.75000% | 1.17830% |
| 2005Q1 | 0.71667% | 0.80771% |
| 2005Q2 | 0.65833% | 1.05541% |
| 2005Q3 | 0.60000% | 0.97522% |
| 2005Q4 | 0.53333% | 0.73376% |
| 2006Q1 | 0.43333% | 0.83656% |
| 2006Q2 | 0.31667% | 1.31188% |
| 2006Q3 | 0.19167% | 1.96244% |
| 2006Q4 | 0.08333% | 2.20309% |
| 2007Q1 | -0.01667% | 2.25058% |
| 2007Q2 | -0.10833% | 2.07634% |
| 2007Q3 | -0.16667% | 1.98735% |
| 2007Q4 | -0.21667% | 2.02493% |
| 2008Q1 | -0.24167% | 2.00631% |
| 2008Q2 | -0.22917% | 1.82768% |
| 2008Q3 | -0.15250% | 1.63047% |
| 2008Q4 | -0.01000% | 1.94370% |
| 2009Q1 | 0.26667% | 1.80028% |
| 2009Q2 | 0.61833% | 1.45782% |
| 2009Q3 | 0.99417% | 0.69766% |
| 2009Q4 | 1.39417% | 0.23599% |
| 2010Q1 | 1.77250% | 0.26553% |
| 2010Q2 | 2.13917% | 0.34709% |
| 2010Q3 | 2.46917% | 0.19669% |
| 2010Q4 | 2.78667% | 0.24278% |
| 2011Q1 | 3.04250% | 0.32581% |
| 2011Q2 | 3.28333% | 0.34820% |
| 2011Q3 | 3.45833% | 0.64974% |
| 2011Q4 | 3.54000% | 0.29234% |
| 2012Q1 | 3.47833% | 0.09393% |
| 2012Q2 | 3.33500% | 0.15313% |
| 2012Q3 | 3.16000% | 0.57374% |
| 2012Q4 | 2.95250% | 0.55100% |
| 2013Q1 | 2.76000% | 0.46097% |
| 2013Q2 | 2.56333% | 0.43774% |
| 2013Q3 | 2.37167% | 0.39779% |
| 2013Q4 | 2.17083% | 0.23673% |
| 2014Q1 | 1.98833% | 0.47916% |
| 2014Q2 | 1.77583% | 0.37257% |
| 2014Q3 | 1.57333% | -0.07013% |
| 2014Q4 | 1.37417% | 0.39935% |
| 2015Q1 | 1.19333% | 0.99864% |
| 2015Q2 | 1.01167% | 0.25345% |
| 2015Q3 | 0.82083% | -1.59550% |
Note: The unemployment gap is defined as the difference between actual unemployment and the CBO estimate of NAIRU. The plot shows in each year the average unemployment gap over the preceding three years as well as the average rate of productivity growth in the successive three years.
Source: Author’s analysis of unpublished data on Total Economy Productivity from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and CBO estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is a component of CBO estimates of potential GDP
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