Robert E. Scott
Senior Economist and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research
By Area of Research:
Currency manipulation and manufacturing job loss: Why negotiating “great trade deals” is not the answer
July 21, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | Policy MemoDonald Trump’s hubristic pledge to save American workers and manufacturing by negotiating “great trade deals” and imposing tariffs on Chinese imports will fail. Here’s what will work.
June 28, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogBrexit is a moment of crisis for the global economy, one which demands a fundamental re-examination of our core values. It is time to develop alternatives to the current model of globalization, which benefits only those who are most well-off in our society.
May 19, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogYesterday, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) released a long-awaited report on the projected economic impacts of the TPP agreement. The report is remarkable for its frank estimates of the costs of the agreement, and the minimal benefits it identifies.
May 5, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogWhen the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) was passed just over four years ago, President Obama said that the agreement would support 70,000 U.S. jobs. Things are not turning out as predicted.
Lagging recovery of construction and manufacturing sectors is one more reason wage growth is suffering for most workers
February 25, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | Economic SnapshotThe economy has added nearly 5 million jobs in the private sector since the Great Recession began in December 2007, but construction and manufacturing—two key sectors that provide good jobs and high wages, particularly for workers without 4-year college degrees—continue to lag behind the recovery.
Despite seemingly stable U.S. trade balance, rapidly growing trade deficits in non-oil goods could lead to American job losses
February 5, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogMost U.S. goods trade consists of manufactured products. In 2015, manufacturing constituted 86.9 percent of total U.S. goods trade, and 94.3 percent of total trade in non-oil goods. Because manufacturing is such a large employer, rapidly growing trade deficits in non-oil goods are a threat to future employment in this sector.
January 13, 2016 | By Robert E. Scott | ReportThe Trans-Pacific Partnership will likely result in growing trade deficits, trade-related job losses, and downward pressure on wages of the majority of U.S. workers.
A Conservative Estimate of ‘The Wal-Mart Effect’: Wal-Mart’s growing trade deficit with China has displaced more than 400,000 U.S. jobs
December 9, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Briefing PaperU.S.-based Wal-Mart is a key conduit of Chinese imports into the American market, and its trade deficit with China eliminated or displaced over 400,000 U.S. jobs between 2001 and 2013.
December 3, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Economic SnapshotIf high wages hurt manufacturing competitiveness, Germany's manufacturing sector would be doing worse than the United States.
December 2, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Briefing PaperThe strategy of pushing manufacturing into low-wage, nonunion states is a race-to-the-bottom strategy that should be rejected in favor of high-road strategies: fighting currency manipulation and doing more to rebuild American manufacturing.
November 20, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogThe 21st Century Buy American Act is smart manufacturing policy and a good first step towards rebuilding American manufacturing.
October 9, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogU.S. jobs and the recovery are threatened by a growing trade deficit in manufactured products, which is on pace to reach $633.9 billion in 2015.
October 5, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Press ReleasesStatement from EPI Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research Robert E. Scott on the announcement that the United States and other countries reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Congress Must Act to Save the 190,000 to 640,000 U.S. Jobs at Risk Due to Chinese Currency Devaluation
August 17, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogCongress should take advantage of the groundswell of bipartisan concern about the negative impacts of the devaluation of the yuan to pass new laws and resolutions.
August 12, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogBy choosing to devalue its currency, Chinese officials are trying to solve their domestic economic problems by exporting unemployment to the rest of the world. The United States will be hardest hit by the devaluation of the yuan.
August 11, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Issue BriefThe United States lost 5 million manufacturing jobs between January 2000 and December 2014 due to growing trade deficits in manufacturing products prior to the Great Recession and then the massive output collapse during the Great Recession.
June 23, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogFast-track trade legislation is the first step in the process of greasing the skids for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and any other trade deal proposed by this president or any other for the next six years. Last month, the 13 democrats listed in the table below voted to end debate on fast track (Trade Promotion Authority, or TPA), allowing a final vote to take pace. There are strong arguments against the TPP, which will increase inequality and hurt the middle class.
June 18, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogIn a jointly authored statement, former EPI board members and U.S. Labor Secretaries F. Ray Marshall and Robert Reich called on Congress to reject Trade Promotion Authority and the Trans-Pacific Partnership because that deal will “harm America’s working people.” Despite this statement, the House today approved a truncated version of Fast Track (TPA) that excludes funding for Trade Adjustment Assistance for displaced workers.
June 10, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogThe House is expected to vote this week on fast track authority to negotiate two massive trade deals, including the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP).
May 13, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | AudioEPI’s Rob Scott joined NPR’s “On Point” to discuss the debate over trade, globalization, and the TPP. Watch the video
May 12, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Policy MemoIt would be unconscionable for the administration to negotiate, or for Congress to approve, a trade agreement that does not include strong and enforceable tools to end currency manipulation.
April 29, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | AudioEPI’s Rob Scott spoke with NPR’s “Morning Edition” about potential U.S. jobs lost due to rising imports from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership.
April 28, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogLast week, the president claimed that critics who say that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) “is bad for working families… don’t know what they are talking about.” But the truth is, there is an emerging consensus that globalization has put downward pressure on the wages of most working Americans, and has redistributed income from the bottom to the top.
April 23, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Economic SnapshotCurrency manipulation distorts trade flows by artificially lowering the cost of U.S. imports and raising the cost of U.S. exports, and is the leading cause of growing U.S.
The Consequences of Neglecting Manufacturing: Compared with Other Nations, U.S. Has More Import Competition in Leading Export Industries
April 20, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | Issue BriefThe U.S. trade deficit in its top 30 export industries is a consequence of its toleration of massive currency manipulation over many years by China, Japan, and about 20 other countries, the failure to eliminate widespread tariff and nontariff barriers to U.S. exports, and the failure to develop effective strategies for rebuilding U.S. manufacturing.
April 13, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogThis post originally appeared in The Huffington Post. This week, Senator Hatch will reportedly introduce “fast track” (trade promotion authority) legislation in the Senate, to help President Obama complete the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade and investment deal with eleven other countries in Asia and the Americas.
April 8, 2015 | By Robert E. Scott | BlogThis post was updated at 5:43 pm to reflect additional analysis. Today, the Washington Post fact checker, Glenn Kessler, claimed that Public Citizen’s analysis of the Korean Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) is based on flawed economics and faulty math.