Search publications by Robert E. Scott
Yesterday, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) released a long-awaited report on the projected economic impacts of the TPP agreement. The report is remarkable for its frank estimates of the costs of the agreement, and the minimal benefits it identifies.
Almost two-thirds of people in the labor force (65.1 percent) do not have a college degree. In fact, non-college educated people make up the majority of the labor force in every state but the District of Columbia.
The failure to include provisions to stop currency manipulation alone casts the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a fatally flawed trade and investment deal. U.S. trade deficits with the 11 other members of the proposed agreement eliminated 2 million U.S. jobs in 2015, and reduced U.S. GDP by nearly $300 billion (1.6 percent).
The economy has added nearly 5 million jobs in the private sector since the Great Recession began in December 2007, but construction and manufacturing—two key sectors that provide good jobs and high wages, particularly for workers without 4-year college degrees—continue to lag behind the recovery.
Most U.S. goods trade consists of manufactured products. In 2015, manufacturing constituted 86.9 percent of total U.S. goods trade, and 94.3 percent of total trade in non-oil goods. Because manufacturing is such a large employer, rapidly growing trade deficits in non-oil goods are a threat to future employment in this sector.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership will likely result in growing trade deficits, trade-related job losses, and downward pressure on wages of the majority of U.S. workers.
U.S.-based Wal-Mart is a key conduit of Chinese imports into the American market, and its trade deficit with China eliminated or displaced over 400,000 U.S. jobs between 2001 and 2013.
If high wages hurt manufacturing competitiveness, Germany's manufacturing sector would be doing worse than the United States.
The strategy of pushing manufacturing into low-wage, nonunion states is a race-to-the-bottom strategy that should be rejected in favor of high-road strategies: fighting currency manipulation and doing more to rebuild American manufacturing.
Century Buy American Act is smart manufacturing policy and a good first step towards rebuilding American manufacturing.
U.S. jobs and the recovery are threatened by a growing trade deficit in manufactured products, which is on pace to reach $633.9 billion in 2015.
Statement from EPI Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research Robert E. Scott on the announcement that the United States and other countries reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
An EU decision to grant MES to China would put between 1.7 million and 3.5 million EU jobs at risk by allowing Chinese companies to flood the EU with cheap goods.
Congress should take advantage of the groundswell of bipartisan concern about the negative impacts of the devaluation of the yuan to pass new laws and resolutions.
By choosing to devalue its currency, Chinese officials are trying to solve their domestic economic problems by exporting unemployment to the rest of the world. The United States will be hardest hit by the devaluation of the yuan.
The United States lost 5 million manufacturing jobs between January 2000 and December 2014 due to growing trade deficits in manufacturing products prior to the Great Recession and then the massive output collapse during the Great Recession.
In a jointly authored statement, former EPI board members and U.S. Labor Secretaries F. Ray Marshall and Robert Reich called on Congress to reject Trade Promotion Authority and the Trans-Pacific Partnership because that deal will “harm America’s working people.” Despite this statement, the House today approved a truncated version of Fast Track (TPA) that excludes funding for Trade Adjustment Assistance for displaced workers.
The House is expected to vote this week on fast track authority to negotiate two massive trade deals, including the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP).
EPI’s Rob Scott joined NPR’s “On Point” to discuss the debate over trade, globalization, and the TPP.
Watch the video
It would be unconscionable for the administration to negotiate, or for Congress to approve, a trade agreement that does not include strong and enforceable tools to end currency manipulation.
EPI’s Rob Scott spoke with NPR’s “Morning Edition” about potential U.S. jobs lost due to rising imports from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Last week, the president claimed that critics who say that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) “is bad for working families… don’t know what they are talking about.”
But the truth is, there is an emerging consensus that globalization has put downward pressure on the wages of most working Americans, and has redistributed income from the bottom to the top.
Currency manipulation distorts trade flows by artificially lowering the cost of U.S. imports and raising the cost of U.S. exports, and is the leading cause of growing U.S.
The U.S. trade deficit in its top 30 export industries is a consequence of its toleration of massive currency manipulation over many years by China, Japan, and about 20 other countries, the failure to eliminate widespread tariff and nontariff barriers to U.S. exports, and the failure to develop effective strategies for rebuilding U.S. manufacturing.
This post originally appeared in The Huffington Post.
This week, Senator Hatch will reportedly introduce “fast track” (trade promotion authority) legislation in the Senate, to help President Obama complete the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade and investment deal with eleven other countries in Asia and the Americas.
This post was updated at 5:43 pm to reflect additional analysis.
Today, the Washington Post fact checker, Glenn Kessler, claimed that Public Citizen’s analysis of the Korean Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) is based on flawed economics and faulty math.
(Update of a blog post from March 14, 2014).
March 15th was the third anniversary of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS).
In a recent op-ed in the Washington Post, three prominent economists, David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson make a number of controversial arguments in favor of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).