Full employment caucus presentation

Full employment:

Heading there, but not there yet

Elise Gould, Senior Economist
Economic Policy Institute

Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2237
Monday, March 20, 2017

Month-over-month payroll employment growth, in thousands, 2016–2017

Date Month-over-month payroll employment growth, in thousands
Feb-2016 237
Mar-2016 225
Apr-2016 153
May-2016 43
Jun-2016 297
Jul-2016 291
Aug-2016 176
Sep-2016 249
Oct-2016 124
Nov-2016 164
Dec-2016 155
Jan-2017 238
Feb-2017 235
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics public data series

Unemployment rate, 1989–2017

Date Actual Autopilot projection Target
Jan-1989 5.4 4
Feb-1989 5.2 4
Mar-1989 5 4
Apr-1989 5.2 4
May-1989 5.2 4
Jun-1989 5.3 4
Jul-1989 5.2 4
Aug-1989 5.2 4
Sep-1989 5.3 4
Oct-1989 5.3 4
Nov-1989 5.4 4
Dec-1989 5.4 4
Jan-1990 5.4 4
Feb-1990 5.3 4
Mar-1990 5.2 4
Apr-1990 5.4 4
May-1990 5.4 4
Jun-1990 5.2 4
Jul-1990 5.5 4
Aug-1990 5.7 4
Sep-1990 5.9 4
Oct-1990 5.9 4
Nov-1990 6.2 4
Dec-1990 6.3 4
Jan-1991 6.4 4
Feb-1991 6.6 4
Mar-1991 6.8 4
Apr-1991 6.7 4
May-1991 6.9 4
Jun-1991 6.9 4
Jul-1991 6.8 4
Aug-1991 6.9 4
Sep-1991 6.9 4
Oct-1991 7 4
Nov-1991 7 4
Dec-1991 7.3 4
Jan-1992 7.3 4
Feb-1992 7.4 4
Mar-1992 7.4 4
Apr-1992 7.4 4
May-1992 7.6 4
Jun-1992 7.8 4
Jul-1992 7.7 4
Aug-1992 7.6 4
Sep-1992 7.6 4
Oct-1992 7.3 4
Nov-1992 7.4 4
Dec-1992 7.4 4
Jan-1993 7.3 4
Feb-1993 7.1 4
Mar-1993 7 4
Apr-1993 7.1 4
May-1993 7.1 4
Jun-1993 7 4
Jul-1993 6.9 4
Aug-1993 6.8 4
Sep-1993 6.7 4
Oct-1993 6.8 4
Nov-1993 6.6 4
Dec-1993 6.5 4
Jan-1994 6.6 4
Feb-1994 6.6 4
Mar-1994 6.5 4
Apr-1994 6.4 4
May-1994 6.1 4
Jun-1994 6.1 4
Jul-1994 6.1 4
Aug-1994 6 4
Sep-1994 5.9 4
Oct-1994 5.8 4
Nov-1994 5.6 4
Dec-1994 5.5 4
Jan-1995 5.6 4
Feb-1995 5.4 4
Mar-1995 5.4 4
Apr-1995 5.8 4
May-1995 5.6 4
Jun-1995 5.6 4
Jul-1995 5.7 4
Aug-1995 5.7 4
Sep-1995 5.6 4
Oct-1995 5.5 4
Nov-1995 5.6 4
Dec-1995 5.6 4
Jan-1996 5.6 4
Feb-1996 5.5 4
Mar-1996 5.5 4
Apr-1996 5.6 4
May-1996 5.6 4
Jun-1996 5.3 4
Jul-1996 5.5 4
Aug-1996 5.1 4
Sep-1996 5.2 4
Oct-1996 5.2 4
Nov-1996 5.4 4
Dec-1996 5.4 4
Jan-1997 5.3 4
Feb-1997 5.2 4
Mar-1997 5.2 4
Apr-1997 5.1 4
May-1997 4.9 4
Jun-1997 5 4
Jul-1997 4.9 4
Aug-1997 4.8 4
Sep-1997 4.9 4
Oct-1997 4.7 4
Nov-1997 4.6 4
Dec-1997 4.7 4
Jan-1998 4.6 4
Feb-1998 4.6 4
Mar-1998 4.7 4
Apr-1998 4.3 4
May-1998 4.4 4
Jun-1998 4.5 4
Jul-1998 4.5 4
Aug-1998 4.5 4
Sep-1998 4.6 4
Oct-1998 4.5 4
Nov-1998 4.4 4
Dec-1998 4.4 4
Jan-1999 4.3 4
Feb-1999 4.4 4
Mar-1999 4.2 4
Apr-1999 4.3 4
May-1999 4.2 4
Jun-1999 4.3 4
Jul-1999 4.3 4
Aug-1999 4.2 4
Sep-1999 4.2 4
Oct-1999 4.1 4
Nov-1999 4.1 4
Dec-1999 4 4
Jan-2000 4 4
Feb-2000 4.1 4
Mar-2000 4 4
Apr-2000 3.8 4
May-2000 4 4
Jun-2000 4 4
Jul-2000 4 4
Aug-2000 4.1 4
Sep-2000 3.9 4
Oct-2000 3.9 4
Nov-2000 3.9 4
Dec-2000 3.9 4
Jan-2001 4.2 4
Feb-2001 4.2 4
Mar-2001 4.3 4
Apr-2001 4.4 4
May-2001 4.3 4
Jun-2001 4.5 4
Jul-2001 4.6 4
Aug-2001 4.9 4
Sep-2001 5 4
Oct-2001 5.3 4
Nov-2001 5.5 4
Dec-2001 5.7 4
Jan-2002 5.7 4
Feb-2002 5.7 4
Mar-2002 5.7 4
Apr-2002 5.9 4
May-2002 5.8 4
Jun-2002 5.8 4
Jul-2002 5.8 4
Aug-2002 5.7 4
Sep-2002 5.7 4
Oct-2002 5.7 4
Nov-2002 5.9 4
Dec-2002 6 4
Jan-2003 5.8 4
Feb-2003 5.9 4
Mar-2003 5.9 4
Apr-2003 6 4
May-2003 6.1 4
Jun-2003 6.3 4
Jul-2003 6.2 4
Aug-2003 6.1 4
Sep-2003 6.1 4
Oct-2003 6 4
Nov-2003 5.8 4
Dec-2003 5.7 4
Jan-2004 5.7 4
Feb-2004 5.6 4
Mar-2004 5.8 4
Apr-2004 5.6 4
May-2004 5.6 4
Jun-2004 5.6 4
Jul-2004 5.5 4 
Aug-2004 5.4 4
Sep-2004 5.4 4
Oct-2004 5.5 4
Nov-2004 5.4 4
Dec-2004 5.4 4
Jan-2005 5.3 4
Feb-2005 5.4 4
Mar-2005 5.2 4
Apr-2005 5.2 4
May-2005 5.1 4
Jun-2005 5 4
Jul-2005 5 4
Aug-2005 4.9 4
Sep-2005 5 4
Oct-2005 5 4
Nov-2005 5 4
Dec-2005 4.9 4
Jan-2006 4.7 4
Feb-2006 4.8 4
Mar-2006 4.7 4
Apr-2006 4.7 4
May-2006 4.6 4
Jun-2006 4.6 4
Jul-2006 4.7 4
Aug-2006 4.7 4
Sep-2006 4.5 4
Oct-2006 4.4 4
Nov-2006 4.5 4
Dec-2006 4.4 4
Jan-2007 4.6 4
Feb-2007 4.5 4
Mar-2007 4.4 4
Apr-2007 4.5 4
May-2007 4.4 4
Jun-2007 4.6 4
Jul-2007 4.7 4
Aug-2007 4.6 4
Sep-2007 4.7 4
Oct-2007 4.7 4
Nov-2007 4.7 4
Dec-2007 5 4
Jan-2008 5 4
Feb-2008 4.9 4
Mar-2008 5.1 4
Apr-2008 5 4
May-2008 5.4 4
Jun-2008 5.6 4
Jul-2008 5.8 4
Aug-2008 6.1 4
Sep-2008 6.1 4
Oct-2008 6.5 4
Nov-2008 6.8 4
Dec-2008 7.3 4
Jan-2009 7.8 4
Feb-2009 8.3 4
Mar-2009 8.7 4
Apr-2009 9 4
May-2009 9.4 4
Jun-2009 9.5 4
Jul-2009 9.5 4
Aug-2009 9.6 4
Sep-2009 9.8 4
Oct-2009 10 4
Nov-2009 9.9 4
Dec-2009 9.9 4
Jan-2010 9.8 4
Feb-2010 9.8 4
Mar-2010 9.9 4
Apr-2010 9.9 4
May-2010 9.6 4
Jun-2010 9.4 4
Jul-2010 9.4 4
Aug-2010 9.5 4
Sep-2010 9.5 4
Oct-2010 9.4 4
Nov-2010 9.8 4
Dec-2010 9.3 4
Jan-2011 9.1 4
Feb-2011 9 4
Mar-2011 9 4
Apr-2011 9.1 4
May-2011 9 4
Jun-2011 9.1 4
Jul-2011 9 4
Aug-2011 9 4
Sep-2011 9 4
Oct-2011 8.8 4
Nov-2011 8.6 4
Dec-2011 8.5 4
Jan-2012 8.3 4
Feb-2012 8.3 4
Mar-2012 8.2 4
Apr-2012 8.2 4
May-2012 8.2 4
Jun-2012 8.2 4
Jul-2012 8.2 4
Aug-2012 8.1 4
Sep-2012 7.8 4
Oct-2012 7.8 4
Nov-2012 7.7 4
Dec-2012 7.9 4
Jan-2013 8 4
Feb-2013 7.7 4
Mar-2013 7.5 4
Apr-2013 7.6 4
May-2013 7.5 4
Jun-2013 7.5 4
Jul-2013 7.3 4
Aug-2013 7.3 4
Sep-2013 7.2 4
Oct-2013 7.2 4
Nov-2013 6.9 4
Dec-2013 6.7 4
Jan-2014 6.6 4
Feb-2014 6.7 4
Mar-2014 6.7 4
Apr-2014 6.2 4
May-2014 6.3 4
Jun-2014 6.1 4
Jul-2014 6.2 4
Aug-2014 6.2 4
Sep-2014 5.9 4
Oct-2014 5.7 4
Nov-2014 5.8 4
Dec-2014 5.6 4
Jan-2015 5.7 4
Feb-2015 5.5 4
Mar-2015 5.4 4
Apr-2015 5.4 4
May-2015 5.5 4
Jun-2015 5.3 4
Jul-2015 5.2 4
Aug-2015 5.1 4
Sep-2015 5 4
Oct-2015 5 4
Nov-2015 5 4
Dec-2015 5 4
Jan-2016 4.9 4
Feb-2016 4.9 4
Mar-2016 5 4
Apr-2016 5 4
May-2016 4.7 4
Jun-2016 4.9 4
Jul-2016 4.9 4
Aug-2016 4.9 4
Sep-2016 4.9 4
Oct-2016 4.8 4
Nov-2016 4.6 4
Dec-2016 4.7 4
Jan-2017 4.8 4.7 4
Feb-2017 4.7% 4.677778 4
Mar-2017 4.655556 4
Apr-2017 4.633333 4
May-2017 4.611111 4
Jun-2017 4.588889 4
Jul-2017 4.566667 4
Aug-2017 4.544444 4
Sep-2017 4.522222 4
Oct-2017 4.5 4
Nov-2017 4.477778 4
Dec-2017 4.455556 4
Jan-2018 4.433333 4
Feb-2018 4.411111 4
Mar-2018 4.388889 4
Apr-2018 4.366667 4
May-2018 4.344444 4
Jun-2018 4.322222 4
Jul-2018 4.3 4
Aug-2018 4.277778 4
Sep-2018 4.255556 4
Oct-2018 4.233333 4
Nov-2018 4.211111 4
Dec-2018 4.188889 4
Jan-2019 4.166667 4
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public data

Unemployment rate of workers age 16 and older by race and ethnicity, 1995–2017

White Black Hispanic
Jan-1995 4.8 10.3 10.2
Feb-1995 4.7 10.1 9.0
Mar-1995 4.7 9.7 8.9
Apr-1995 5.0 10.7 8.9
May-1995 5.0 10.0 9.8
Jun-1995 4.9 10.7 9.1
Jul-1995 4.9 10.9 8.8
Aug-1995 4.9 11.1 9.6
Sep-1995 4.9 11.1 9.1
Oct-1995 4.9 10.0 9.4
Nov-1995 5.0 9.7 9.5
Dec-1995 4.9 10.2 9.3
Jan-1996 4.9 10.6 9.4
Feb-1996 4.8 10.0 9.6
Mar-1996 4.8 10.6 9.6
Apr-1996 4.8 10.7 9.6
May-1996 4.9 10.2 9.6
Jun-1996 4.6 10.4 8.8
Jul-1996 4.7 10.6 8.8
Aug-1996 4.4 10.6 8.8
Sep-1996 4.5 10.6 8.2
Oct-1996 4.5 10.7 8.0
Nov-1996 4.6 10.6 8.5
Dec-1996 4.6 10.5 7.4
Jan-1997 4.5 10.8 8.4
Feb-1997 4.5 10.7 8.2
Mar-1997 4.4 10.5 8.3
Apr-1997 4.3 10.2 8.2
May-1997 4.1 10.3 7.7
Jun-1997 4.2 10.8 7.5
Jul-1997 4.2 9.5 7.9
Aug-1997 4.2 9.4 7.2
Sep-1997 4.2 9.5 7.4
Oct-1997 4.1 9.5 7.8
Nov-1997 3.9 9.5 7.0
Dec-1997 3.9 10.0 7.3
Jan-1998 4.0 9.4 7.1
Feb-1998 3.9 9.3 6.9
Mar-1998 4.0 9.2 6.9
Apr-1998 3.7 9.1 6.7
May-1998 3.8 8.9 6.9
Jun-1998 3.9 8.8 7.4
Jul-1998 3.8 9.5 7.3
Aug-1998 3.9 8.8 7.4
Sep-1998 3.9 9.1 7.3
Oct-1998 3.9 8.6 7.2
Nov-1998 3.8 8.6 7.1
Dec-1998 3.8 7.7 7.7
Jan-1999 3.8 7.8 6.7
Feb-1999 3.8 8.2 6.7
Mar-1999 3.6 8.0 5.8
Apr-1999 3.8 7.8 7.0
May-1999 3.7 7.4 6.7
Jun-1999 3.8 7.7 6.6
Jul-1999 3.7 8.7 6.5
Aug-1999 3.7 7.7 6.5
Sep-1999 3.6 8.5 6.7
Oct-1999 3.5 8.4 6.4
Nov-1999 3.5 8.0 6.0
Dec-1999 3.5 7.8 5.8
Jan-2000 3.4 8.2 5.6
Feb-2000 3.6 8.1 5.7
Mar-2000 3.5 7.4 6.1
Apr-2000 3.4 7.0% 5.5
May-2000 3.5 7.7 5.8
Jun-2000 3.4 7.8 5.6
Jul-2000 3.5 7.7 5.8
Aug-2000 3.6 7.9 5.9
Sep-2000 3.5 7.3 5.8
Oct-2000 3.4%   7.3 5.1
Nov-2000 3.5 7.3 6.0
Dec-2000 3.5 7.4 5.7
Jan-2001 3.6 8.2 5.8
Feb-2001 3.7 7.7 6.1
Mar-2001 3.7 8.3 6.2
Apr-2001 3.9 8.0 6.4
May-2001 3.8 7.9 6.3
Jun-2001 4.0 8.3 6.6
Jul-2001 4.0 8.0 6.2
Aug-2001 4.3 9.1 6.5
Sep-2001 4.3 8.9 6.7
Oct-2001 4.7 9.5 7.1
Nov-2001 4.9 9.8 7.3
Dec-2001 5.1 10.1 7.7
Jan-2002 5.1 10.0 7.8
Feb-2002 5.0 9.9 7.0
Mar-2002 5.0 10.5 7.5
Apr-2002 5.2 10.7 8.0
May-2002 5.1 10.2 7.1
Jun-2002 5.1 10.5 7.4
Jul-2002 5.2 9.8 7.4
Aug-2002 5.1 9.8 7.5
Sep-2002 5.1 9.7 7.4
Oct-2002 5.1 9.8 7.9
Nov-2002 5.1 10.7 7.8
Dec-2002 5.1 11.3 7.9
Jan-2003 5.2 10.5 7.9
Feb-2003 5.1 10.7 7.6
Mar-2003 5.1 10.3 7.8
Apr-2003 5.3 10.9 7.6
May-2003 5.4 10.9 8.1
Jun-2003 5.5 11.5 8.4
Jul-2003 5.4 10.9 8.1
Aug-2003 5.4 10.9 7.7
Sep-2003 5.3 11.1 7.3
Oct-2003 5.1 11.4 7.4
Nov-2003 5.2 10.2 7.5
Dec-2003 5.0 10.1 6.6
Jan-2004 5.0 10.4 7.4
Feb-2004 4.9 9.7 7.4
Mar-2004 5.1 10.3 7.5
Apr-2004 5.0 9.8 7.1
May-2004 4.9 10.1 7.0
Jun-2004 5.0 10.2 6.6
Jul-2004 4.7 11.0 6.9
Aug-2004 4.7 10.5 6.8
Sep-2004 4.6 10.3 6.9
Oct-2004 4.6 10.8 6.7
Nov-2004 4.6 10.7 6.7
Dec-2004 4.5 10.7 6.5
Jan-2005 4.5 10.6 6.2
Feb-2005 4.6 10.9 6.4
Mar-2005 4.5 10.5 5.8
Apr-2005 4.4 10.3 6.4
May-2005 4.4 10.1 5.9
Jun-2005 4.3 10.2 5.7
Jul-2005 4.2 9.2 5.5
Aug-2005 4.2 9.7 5.8
Sep-2005 4.4 9.4 6.5
Oct-2005 4.4 9.1 5.9
Nov-2005 4.3 10.6 6.2
Dec-2005 4.2 9.2 6.1
Jan-2006 4.1 8.9 5.7
Feb-2006 4.1 9.5 5.5
Mar-2006 4.0 9.5 5.2
Apr-2006 4.1 9.4 5.3
May-2006 4.1 8.7 4.9
Jun-2006 4.1 8.9 5.2
Jul-2006 4.1 9.5 5.3
Aug-2006 4.1 8.8 5.3
Sep-2006 3.9 9.0 5.5
Oct-2006 3.9 8.4 4.7%  
Nov-2006 4.0 8.5 5.1
Dec-2006 3.9 8.3 5.0
Jan-2007 4.2 7.9 5.5
Feb-2007 4.1 8.0 5.1
Mar-2007 3.8 8.4 5.0
Apr-2007 4.0 8.3 5.6
May-2007 3.9 8.3 5.8
Jun-2007 4.1 8.5 5.5
Jul-2007 4.2 8.1 5.9
Aug-2007 4.2 7.6 5.5
Sep-2007 4.2 8.0 5.9
Oct-2007 4.1 8.5 5.7
Nov-2007 4.2 8.5 5.9
Dec-2007 4.4 9.0 6.3
Jan-2008 4.4 9.1 6.5
Feb-2008 4.4 8.4 6.3
Mar-2008 4.5 9.2 7.0
Apr-2008 4.4 8.6 7.0
May-2008 4.8 9.6 6.9
Jun-2008 5.0 9.4 7.7
Jul-2008 5.2 10.0 7.6
Aug-2008 5.4 10.6 8.1
Sep-2008 5.4 11.3 8.0
Oct-2008 5.9 11.4 8.8
Nov-2008 6.2 11.5 8.6
Dec-2008 6.7 12.1 9.3
Jan-2009 7.1 12.7 10.0
Feb-2009 7.6 13.7 11.1
Mar-2009 8.0 13.7 11.7
Apr-2009 8.1 15.0 11.5
May-2009 8.5 15.0 12.6
Jun-2009 8.7 14.8 12.2
Jul-2009 8.7 14.8 12.5
Aug-2009 8.9 14.8 13.1%  
Sep-2009 8.9 15.3 12.7
Oct-2009 9.2 15.8 12.9
Nov-2009 9.2%   15.7 12.4
Dec-2009 9.0 16.1 12.7
Jan-2010 8.8 16.5 12.9
Feb-2010 8.9 16.1 12.7
Mar-2010 8.9 16.8%   12.9
Apr-2010 9.0 16.6 12.5
May-2010 8.7 15.5 12.0
Jun-2010 8.6 15.2 12.3
Jul-2010 8.5 15.6 12.2
Aug-2010 8.6 15.9 12.0
Sep-2010 8.6 16.0 12.3
Oct-2010 8.6 15.6 12.3
Nov-2010 8.9 16.2 12.9
Dec-2010 8.5 15.5 12.9
Jan-2011 8.1 15.8 12.3
Feb-2011 8.1 15.5 11.8
Mar-2011 8.0 15.8 11.6
Apr-2011 8.1 16.5 11.9
May-2011 7.9 16.3 11.6
Jun-2011 8.1 16.2 11.5
Jul-2011 8.0 15.9 11.2
Aug-2011 7.9 16.4 11.2
Sep-2011 7.9 15.9 11.2
Oct-2011 7.9 14.6 11.3
Nov-2011 7.7 15.6 11.2
Dec-2011 7.5 15.4 11.1
Jan-2012 7.4 13.6 10.7
Feb-2012 7.4 14.0 10.9
Mar-2012 7.3 14.0 10.6
Apr-2012 7.4 13.3 10.3
May-2012 7.4 13.5 10.9
Jun-2012 7.3 14.5 10.9
Jul-2012 7.3 14.2 10.2
Aug-2012 7.2 13.8 10.1
Sep-2012 7.0 13.6 9.7
Oct-2012 6.9 14.1 10.0
Nov-2012 6.8 13.3 9.9
Dec-2012 6.9 14.0 9.6
Jan-2013 7.1 13.7 9.7
Feb-2013 6.8 13.9 9.8
Mar-2013 6.7 13.0 9.3
Apr-2013 6.7 13.2 9.0
May-2013 6.7 13.4 9.0
Jun-2013 6.6 14.0 9.0
Jul-2013 6.5 12.6 9.4
Aug-2013 6.4 12.8 9.3
Sep-2013 6.3 13.1 8.8
Oct-2013 6.3 12.9 9.1
Nov-2013 6.1 12.4 8.7
Dec-2013 6.0 11.9 8.4
Jan-2014 5.7 12.1 8.3
Feb-2014 5.8 11.9 8.2
Mar-2014 5.8 12.1 7.9
Apr-2014 5.3 11.5 7.3
May-2014 5.4 11.4 7.7
Jun-2014 5.3 10.9 7.6
Jul-2014 5.3 11.6 7.7
Aug-2014 5.3 11.4 7.5
Sep-2014 5.1 11.0 6.8
Oct-2014 4.8 10.8 6.8
Nov-2014 4.9 11.0 6.6
Dec-2014 4.8 10.5 6.4
Jan-2015 4.9 10.3 6.8
Feb-2015 4.8 10.3 6.8
Mar-2015 4.7 9.9 6.8
Apr-2015 4.7 9.6 6.8
May-2015 4.7 10.2 6.8
Jun-2015 4.6 9.6 6.7
Jul-2015 4.6 9.1 6.9
Aug-2015 4.4 9.4 6.7
Sep-2015 4.3 9.2 6.2
Oct-2015 4.3 9.1 6.3
Nov-2015 4.3 9.4 6.4
Dec-2015 4.5 8.4 6.2
Jan-2016 4.3 8.8 5.9
Feb-2016 4.3 8.8 5.5
Mar-2016 4.3 8.9 5.6
Apr-2016 4.3 8.8 6.1
May-2016 4.1 8.2 5.6
Jun-2016 4.4 8.6 5.8
Jul-2016 4.3 8.4 5.4
Aug-2016 4.4 8.1 5.7
Sep-2016 4.4 8.3 6.4
Oct-2016 4.3 8.6 5.7
Nov-2016 4.2 8.0 5.7
Dec-2016 4.3 7.8 5.9
Jan-2017 4.3% 7.7% 5.9%
Feb-2017 4.1%   8.1%  5.6%  
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey, public data series

Prime-age employment-to-population ratio, 1989–2019

Date Actual Autopilot projection Target
Jan-1989 80 81.6
Feb-1989 79.9 81.6
Mar-1989 79.9 81.6
Apr-1989 79.8 81.6
May-1989 79.8 81.6
Jun-1989 79.8 81.6
Jul-1989 79.8 81.6
Aug-1989 79.9 81.6
Sep-1989 80 81.6
Oct-1989 79.9 81.6
Nov-1989 80.2 81.6
Dec-1989 80.1 81.6
Jan-1990 80.2 81.6
Feb-1990 80.2 81.6
Mar-1990 80.1 81.6
Apr-1990 79.9 81.6
May-1990 79.9 81.6
Jun-1990 79.8 81.6
Jul-1990 79.6 81.6
Aug-1990 79.5 81.6
Sep-1990 79.4 81.6
Oct-1990 79.4 81.6
Nov-1990 79.2 81.6
Dec-1990 79 81.6
Jan-1991 78.9 81.6
Feb-1991 78.9 81.6
Mar-1991 78.7 81.6
Apr-1991 79 81.6
May-1991 78.6 81.6
Jun-1991 78.7 81.6
Jul-1991 78.6 81.6
Aug-1991 78.5 81.6
Sep-1991 78.6 81.6
Oct-1991 78.5 81.6
Nov-1991 78.4 81.6
Dec-1991 78.3 81.6
Jan-1992 78.4 81.6
Feb-1992 78.2 81.6
Mar-1992 78.2 81.6
Apr-1992 78.4 81.6
May-1992 78.4 81.6
Jun-1992 78.5 81.6
Jul-1992 78.4 81.6
Aug-1992 78.4 81.6
Sep-1992 78.3 81.6
Oct-1992 78.2 81.6
Nov-1992 78.2 81.6
Dec-1992 78.2 81.6
Jan-1993 78.2 81.6
Feb-1993 78.1 81.6
Mar-1993 78.2 81.6
Apr-1993 78.2 81.6
May-1993 78.5 81.6
Jun-1993 78.6 81.6
Jul-1993 78.6 81.6
Aug-1993 78.8 81.6
Sep-1993 78.6 81.6
Oct-1993 78.7 81.6
Nov-1993 79 81.6
Dec-1993 79 81.6
Jan-1994 78.9 81.6
Feb-1994 78.9 81.6
Mar-1994 78.9 81.6
Apr-1994 79 81.6
May-1994 79.2 81.6
Jun-1994 78.8 81.6
Jul-1994 79.1 81.6
Aug-1994 79.2 81.6
Sep-1994 79.6 81.6
Oct-1994 79.6 81.6
Nov-1994 79.8 81.6
Dec-1994 79.8 81.6
Jan-1995 79.7 81.6
Feb-1995 80 81.6
Mar-1995 79.9 81.6
Apr-1995 79.8 81.6
May-1995 79.7 81.6
Jun-1995 79.5 81.6
Jul-1995 79.7 81.6
Aug-1995 79.6 81.6
Sep-1995 79.8 81.6
Oct-1995 79.8 81.6
Nov-1995 79.7 81.6
Dec-1995 79.7 81.6
Jan-1996 79.8 81.6
Feb-1996 79.9 81.6
Mar-1996 79.9 81.6
Apr-1996 79.9 81.6
May-1996 80 81.6
Jun-1996 80.1 81.6
Jul-1996 80.4 81.6
Aug-1996 80.5 81.6
Sep-1996 80.4 81.6
Oct-1996 80.6 81.6
Nov-1996 80.5 81.6
Dec-1996 80.5 81.6
Jan-1997 80.5 81.6
Feb-1997 80.4 81.6
Mar-1997 80.6 81.6
Apr-1997 80.7 81.6
May-1997 80.6 81.6
Jun-1997 80.9 81.6
Jul-1997 81.1 81.6
Aug-1997 81.3 81.6
Sep-1997 81.1 81.6
Oct-1997 81.1 81.6
Nov-1997 81 81.6
Dec-1997 81 81.6
Jan-1998 81 81.6
Feb-1998 81 81.6
Mar-1998 81 81.6
Apr-1998 81.1 81.6
May-1998 81 81.6
Jun-1998 81 81.6
Jul-1998 81.1 81.6
Aug-1998 81.2 81.6
Sep-1998 81.3 81.6
Oct-1998 81.1 81.6
Nov-1998 81.2 81.6
Dec-1998 81.3 81.6
Jan-1999 81.8 81.6
Feb-1999 81.5 81.6
Mar-1999 81.3 81.6
Apr-1999 81.3 81.6
May-1999 81.4 81.6
Jun-1999 81.4 81.6
Jul-1999 81.2 81.6
Aug-1999 81.3 81.6
Sep-1999 81.3 81.6
Oct-1999 81.5 81.6
Nov-1999 81.6 81.6
Dec-1999 81.5 81.6
Jan-2000 81.8 81.6
Feb-2000 81.8 81.6
Mar-2000 81.7 81.6
Apr-2000 81.9 81.6
May-2000 81.5 81.6
Jun-2000 81.5 81.6
Jul-2000 81.3 81.6
Aug-2000 81.1 81.6
Sep-2000 81.1 81.6
Oct-2000 81.1 81.6
Nov-2000 81.3 81.6
Dec-2000 81.4 81.6
Jan-2001 81.4 81.6
Feb-2001 81.3 81.6
Mar-2001 81.3 81.6
Apr-2001 80.9 81.6
May-2001 80.8 81.6
Jun-2001 80.6 81.6
Jul-2001 80.5 81.6
Aug-2001 80.2 81.6
Sep-2001 80.2 81.6
Oct-2001 79.9 81.6
Nov-2001 79.7 81.6
Dec-2001 79.8 81.6
Jan-2002 79.6 81.6
Feb-2002 79.8 81.6
Mar-2002 79.6 81.6
Apr-2002 79.5 81.6
May-2002 79.4 81.6
Jun-2002 79.2 81.6
Jul-2002 79.1 81.6
Aug-2002 79.3 81.6
Sep-2002 79.4 81.6
Oct-2002 79.2 81.6
Nov-2002 78.8 81.6
Dec-2002 79 81.6
Jan-2003 78.9 81.6
Feb-2003 78.9 81.6
Mar-2003 79 81.6
Apr-2003 79.1 81.6
May-2003 78.9 81.6
Jun-2003 78.9 81.6
Jul-2003 78.8 81.6
Aug-2003 78.7 81.6
Sep-2003 78.6 81.6
Oct-2003 78.6 81.6
Nov-2003 78.7 81.6
Dec-2003 78.8 81.6
Jan-2004 78.9 81.6
Feb-2004 78.8 81.6
Mar-2004 78.7 81.6
Apr-2004 78.9 81.6
May-2004 79 81.6
Jun-2004 79.1 81.6
Jul-2004 79.2 81.6
Aug-2004 79 81.6
Sep-2004 79 81.6
Oct-2004 79 81.6
Nov-2004 79.1 81.6
Dec-2004 78.9 81.6  
Jan-2005 79.2 81.6
Feb-2005 79.2 81.6
Mar-2005 79.2 81.6
Apr-2005 79.4 81.6
May-2005 79.5 81.6
Jun-2005 79.2 81.6
Jul-2005 79.4 81.6
Aug-2005 79.6 81.6
Sep-2005 79.4 81.6
Oct-2005 79.3 81.6
Nov-2005 79.2 81.6
Dec-2005 79.3 81.6
Jan-2006 79.6 81.6
Feb-2006 79.7 81.6
Mar-2006 79.8 81.6
Apr-2006 79.6 81.6
May-2006 79.7 81.6
Jun-2006 79.8 81.6
Jul-2006 79.8 81.6
Aug-2006 79.8 81.6
Sep-2006 79.9 81.6
Oct-2006 80.1 81.6
Nov-2006 80 81.6
Dec-2006 80.1 81.6
Jan-2007 80.3 81.6
Feb-2007 80.1 81.6
Mar-2007 80.2 81.6
Apr-2007 80 81.6
May-2007 80 81.6
Jun-2007 79.9 81.6
Jul-2007 79.8 81.6
Aug-2007 79.8 81.6
Sep-2007 79.7 81.6
Oct-2007 79.6 81.6
Nov-2007 79.7 81.6
Dec-2007 79.7 81.6
Jan-2008 80 81.6
Feb-2008 79.9 81.6
Mar-2008 79.8 81.6
Apr-2008 79.6 81.6
May-2008 79.5 81.6
Jun-2008 79.4 81.6
Jul-2008 79.2 81.6
Aug-2008 78.8 81.6
Sep-2008 78.8 81.6
Oct-2008 78.4 81.6
Nov-2008 78.1 81.6
Dec-2008 77.6 81.6
Jan-2009 77 81.6
Feb-2009 76.7 81.6
Mar-2009 76.2 81.6
Apr-2009 76.2 81.6
May-2009 75.9 81.6
Jun-2009 75.9 81.6
Jul-2009 75.8 81.6
Aug-2009 75.6 81.6
Sep-2009 75.1 81.6
Oct-2009 75 81.6
Nov-2009 75.2 81.6
Dec-2009 74.8 81.6
Jan-2010 75.1 81.6
Feb-2010 75.1 81.6
Mar-2010 75.1 81.6
Apr-2010 75.4 81.6
May-2010 75.1 81.6
Jun-2010 75.2 81.6
Jul-2010 75.1 81.6
Aug-2010 75 81.6
Sep-2010 75.1 81.6
Oct-2010 75 81.6
Nov-2010 74.8 81.6
Dec-2010 75 81.6
Jan-2011 75.2 81.6
Feb-2011 75.1 81.6
Mar-2011 75.3 81.6
Apr-2011 75.1 81.6
May-2011 75.2 81.6
Jun-2011 75 81.6
Jul-2011 75 81.6
Aug-2011 75.1 81.6
Sep-2011 74.9 81.6
Oct-2011 74.9 81.6
Nov-2011 75.3 81.6
Dec-2011 75.4 81.6
Jan-2012 75.5 81.6
Feb-2012 75.5 81.6
Mar-2012 75.7 81.6
Apr-2012 75.7 81.6
May-2012 75.7 81.6
Jun-2012 75.6 81.6
Jul-2012 75.6 81.6
Aug-2012 75.7 81.6
Sep-2012 76 81.6
Oct-2012 76.1 81.6
Nov-2012 75.8 81.6
Dec-2012 76 81.6
Jan-2013 75.6 81.6
Feb-2013 75.8 81.6
Mar-2013 75.8 81.6
Apr-2013 75.9 81.6
May-2013 76 81.6
Jun-2013 75.9 81.6
Jul-2013 76 81.6
Aug-2013 75.9 81.6
Sep-2013 76 81.6
Oct-2013 75.6 81.6
Nov-2013 76.1 81.6
Dec-2013 76.2 81.6
Jan-2014 76.4 81.6
Feb-2014 76.4 81.6
Mar-2014 76.6 81.6
Apr-2014 76.5 81.6
May-2014 76.4 81.6
Jun-2014 76.8 81.6
Jul-2014 76.7 81.6
Aug-2014 76.8 81.6
Sep-2014 76.8 81.6
Oct-2014 77 81.6
Nov-2014 77 81.6
Dec-2014 77.1 81.6
Jan-2015 77.1 81.6
Feb-2015 77.2 81.6
Mar-2015 77.2 81.6
Apr-2015 77.2 81.6
May-2015 77.2 81.6
Jun-2015 77.2 81.6
Jul-2015 77.1 81.6
Aug-2015 77.2 81.6
Sep-2015 77.3 81.6
Oct-2015 77.3 81.6
Nov-2015 77.5 81.6
Dec-2015 77.5 81.6
Jan-2016 77.7 81.6
Feb-2016 77.8 81.6
Mar-2016 78 81.6
Apr-2016 77.7 81.6
May-2016 77.8 81.6
Jun-2016 77.8 81.6
Jul-2016 78 81.6
Aug-2016 77.8 81.6
Sep-2016 78 81.6
Oct-2016 78.2 81.6
Nov-2016 78.2 81.6
Dec-2016 78.2 81.6
Jan-2017 78.2 78.2 81.6
Feb-2017 78.3  78.25278 81.6
Mar-2017 78.30556 81.6
Apr-2017 78.35833 81.6
May-2017 78.41111 81.6
Jun-2017 78.46389 81.6
Jul-2017 78.51667 81.6
Aug-2017 78.56944 81.6
Sep-2017 78.62222 81.6
Oct-2017 78.675 81.6
Nov-2017 78.72778 81.6
Dec-2017 78.78056 81.6
Jan-2018 78.83333 81.6
Feb-2018 78.88611 81.6
Mar-2018 78.93889 81.6
Apr-2018 78.99167 81.6
May-2018 79.04444 81.6
Jun-2018 79.09722 81.6
Jul-2018 79.15 81.6
Aug-2018 79.20278 81.6
Sep-2018 79.25556 81.6
Oct-2018 79.30833 81.6
Nov-2018 79.36111 81.6
Dec-2018 79.41389 81.6
Jan-2019 79.46667 81.6
ChartData Download data

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Year-over-year growth in wages among nonfarm employees

Date Actual Autopilot projection
Mar-2007 3.44%
Apr-2007 3.13%
May-2007 3.53%
Jun-2007 3.61%
Jul-2007 3.25%
Aug-2007 3.35%
Sep-2007 3.09%
Oct-2007 3.03%
Nov-2007 3.07%
Dec-2007 2.92%
Jan-2008 2.91%
Feb-2008 2.85%
Mar-2008 3.04%
Apr-2008 2.89%
May-2008 3.07%
Jun-2008 2.67%
Jul-2008 3.05%
Aug-2008 3.33%
Sep-2008 3.28%
Oct-2008 3.32%
Nov-2008 3.50%
Dec-2008 3.59%
Jan-2009 3.58%
Feb-2009 3.43%
Mar-2009 3.28%
Apr-2009 3.37%
May-2009 2.93%
Jun-2009 2.88%
Jul-2009 2.69%
Aug-2009 2.44%
Sep-2009 2.44%
Oct-2009 2.53%
Nov-2009 2.15%
Dec-2009 1.96%
Jan-2010 2.09%
Feb-2010 2.09%
Mar-2010 1.81%
Apr-2010 1.81%
May-2010 1.90%
Jun-2010 1.76%
Jul-2010 1.85%
Aug-2010 1.75%
Sep-2010 1.84%
Oct-2010 1.93%
Nov-2010 1.79%
Dec-2010 1.74%
Jan-2011 1.92%
Feb-2011 1.83%
Mar-2011 1.83%
Apr-2011 1.87%
May-2011 2.04%
Jun-2011 2.13%
Jul-2011 2.30%
Aug-2011 1.95%
Sep-2011 1.94%
Oct-2011 2.07%
Nov-2011 1.98%
Dec-2011 2.07%
Jan-2012 1.79%
Feb-2012 1.79%
Mar-2012 2.14%
Apr-2012 2.09%
May-2012 1.74%
Jun-2012 1.96%
Jul-2012 1.69%
Aug-2012 1.86%
Sep-2012 1.99%
Oct-2012 1.51%
Nov-2012 1.94%
Dec-2012 2.11%
Jan-2013 2.06%
Feb-2013 2.19%
Mar-2013 1.88%
Apr-2013 1.97%
May-2013 2.14%
Jun-2013 2.17%
Jul-2013 2.04%
Aug-2013 2.26%
Sep-2013 2.08%
Oct-2013 2.25%
Nov-2013 2.20%
Dec-2013 1.98%
Jan-2014 2.02%
Feb-2014 2.23%
Mar-2014 2.14%
Apr-2014 2.01%
May-2014 2.13%
Jun-2014 2.00%
Jul-2014 2.09%
Aug-2014 2.21%
Sep-2014 2.04%
Oct-2014 2.03%
Nov-2014 2.03%
Dec-2014 1.86%
Jan-2015 2.19%
Feb-2015 1.93%
Mar-2015 2.22%
Apr-2015 2.26%
May-2015 2.30%
Jun-2015 2.09%
Jul-2015 2.21%
Aug-2015 2.24%
Sep-2015 2.32%
Oct-2015 2.56%
Nov-2015 2.39%
Dec-2015 2.52%
Jan-2016 2.51%
Feb-2016 2.38%
Mar-2016 2.45%
Apr-2016 2.61%
May-2016 2.52%
Jun-2016 2.64%
Jul-2016 2.76%
Aug-2016 2.55%
Sep-2016 2.75%
Oct-2016 2.74%
Nov-2016 2.65%
Dec-2016 2.85%
Jan-2017 2.56% 2.7%
Feb-2017 2.84% 2.73%
Mar-2017 2.63% 2.76%
Apr-2017 2.51% 2.78%
May-2017 2.46% 2.81%
Jun-2017 2.54% 2.84%
Jul-2017 2.64% 2.87%
Aug-2017 2.64% 2.89%
Sep-2017 2.79% 2.92%
Oct-2017 2.36% 2.95%
Nov-2017 2.43% 2.98%
Dec-2017 2.50% 3.00%
Jan-2018 3.03%
Feb-2018 3.06%
Mar-2018 3.09%
Apr-2018 3.12%
May-2018 3.14%
Jun-2018 3.17%
Jul-2018 3.20%
Aug-2018 3.23%
Sep-2018 3.25%
Oct-2018 3.28%
Nov-2018 3.31%
Dec-2018 3.34%
Jan-2019 3.36%
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The target is nominal wage growth consistent with the Federal Reserve Board's 2 percent inflation target, 1.5 percent productivity growth, and a stable labor share of income. Wages are for nonfarm employees.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics public data series

Percent change in real wages given a one-point decline in unemployment

Men Women
10th 2.0% 1.4%
20th 1.6% 1.0%
30th 1.5% 1.0%
40th 1.0% 0.9%
50th 0.9% 0.9%
60th 0.8% 0.7%
70th 0.9% 0.5%
80th 0.8% 0.6%
90th 0.5% 0.8%

 

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Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata

  

Lower unemployment means more broadly based wage growth: Cumulative percent change in real hourly wages, by wage percentile

Annualized percent changes 2007–2015 2015–2016
10th 0.0% 2.9%
50th -0.1% 3.1%
95th 1.0% 1.7%
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Note: Sample based on all workers age 18–64. The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100 - x)% earn more.

Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata

Thank you!

Economic Policy Institute: epi.org

Autopilot Economy Tracker: http://www.epi.org/publication/autopilot-economy-tracker-benchmarks-to-beat-in-order-to-claim-policy-driven-improvements-to-american-wages-and-employment/