Figure 7M

Poverty rate, actual and simulated, 1959–2013

Simulated poverty rate* Actual poverty rate
Jan-1959 22.0% 22.4%
Jan-1960 21.9% 22.2%
Jan-1961 21.8% 21.9%
Jan-1962 20.6% 21.0%
Jan-1963 19.8% 19.5%
Jan-1964 18.6% 19.0%
Jan-1965 17.1% 17.3%
Jan-1966 15.4% 14.7%
Jan-1967 14.9% 14.2%
Jan-1968 13.7% 12.8%
Jan-1969 13.0% 12.1%
Jan-1970 13.3% 12.6%
Jan-1971 12.6% 12.5%
Jan-1972 11.1% 11.9%
Jan-1973 9.4% 11.1%
Jan-1974 9.9% 11.2%
Jan-1975 10.4% 12.3%
Jan-1976 8.7% 11.8%
Jan-1977 7.3% 11.6%
Jan-1978 5.5% 11.4%
Jan-1979 4.7% 11.7%
Jan-1980 5.3% 13.0%
Jan-1981 4.6% 14.0%
Jan-1982 5.9% 15.0%
Jan-1983 4.3% 15.2%
Jan-1984 1.6% 14.4%
Jan-1985 0.1% 14.0%
Jan-1986 -1.1% 13.6%
Jan-1987 13.4%
Jan-1988 13.0%
Jan-1989 12.8%
Jan-1990 13.5%
Jan-1991 14.2%
Jan-1992 14.8%
Jan-1993 15.1%
Jan-1994 14.5%
Jan-1995 13.8%
Jan-1996 13.7%
Jan-1997 13.3%
Jan-1998 12.7%
Jan-1999 11.9%
Jan-2000 11.3%
Jan-2001 11.7%
Jan-2002 12.1%
Jan-2003 12.5%
Jan-2004 12.7%
Jan-2005 12.6%
Jan-2006 12.3%
Jan-2007 12.5%
Jan-2008 13.2%
Jan-2009 14.3%
Jan-2010 15.1%
Jan-2011 15.0%
Jan-2012 15.0%
Jan-2013 14.5%
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

* Poverty rate simulated by a model based on the relationship between per capita GDP growth and the official poverty rate between 1959 and 1973.

Underlying data are from Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Historical Poverty Tables, Table 2, “Poverty Status, by Family Relationship, Race, and Hispanic Origin,” and Table 4, “Poverty Status, by Type of Family, Presence of Related Children, Race and Hispanic Origin,” and from Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income Product Accounts public data, Table 7.1, “Selected Per Capita Product and Income Series in Current and Chained Dollars.” The analysis is an adaptation of analysis by Danziger and Gottschalk (1995), whose method was to regress the poverty rate of the growth of real per capita gross domestic product from 1959–1973 and then simulate poverty rates based on that simple model. The link between GDP and poverty in the earlier period (1959–1973) and the potential for GDP to eradicate poverty by the 1980s holds true for alternative specifications including using only the under-age-65 poverty rate (to remove elderly, the main recipients of Social Security, also growing over this period) and controlling for one target demographic: female-headed families.

Source: Authors' analysis of Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Historical Poverty Tables (Tables 2 and 4) and Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Table 7.1). Analysis using Danziger and Gottschalk (1995).

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

This chart appears in:

Previous chart: «

Next chart: »