Table 3
Near-term macroeconomic effects of Mitt Romney's budget plan, assuming revenue-neutral income tax rate cuts, AMT elimination, and unspecified "base-broadening"
| Budgetary cost (+) or savings (-) (billions) | GDP impact (% GDP) | Employment impact (thousands of jobs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2014 | 2013 | 2014 | 2013 | 2014 | |
| Tax policy | ||||||
| Tax cuts | $196 | $234 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 492 | 570 |
| Expiration of refundable tax credit expansions | -10 | -30 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -92 | -267 |
| Discretionary spending | ||||||
| Defense increases | $75 | $113 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 793 | 1,145 |
| Nonsecurity discretionary cuts | -12 | -16 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -122 | -164 |
| Mandatory spending | ||||||
| Repeal the Affordable Care Act | -$6 | -$29 | -0.1% | -0.2% | -63 | -290 |
| Block grant and cut Medicaid | -10 | -18 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -103 | -185 |
| Government spending cap | ||||||
| Additional primary spending cuts needed to phase in 20% government spending cap | -$143 | -$208 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -1,512 | -2,105 |
| Total | $90 | $45 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -608 | -1,298 |
Note: All policies are scored relative to EPI's current policy baseline. This table presents the impact in calendar years 2013 and 2014.
Source: Authors' analysis of Romney for President, Tax Policy Center, Congressional Budget Office, and Moody's Analytics data
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