Early state unemployment insurance data foreshadow the massive shock the coronavirus is having on state labor markets: The real surge will be seen in next week’s data

The data released yesterday by the Department of Labor showed there was a breathtaking increase in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance (UI) during the week ending in March 21, 2020. Initial UI claims skyrocketed to 3.3 million last week—a nearly 1,500% increase over three weeks ago, when 211,000 initial claims were filed.

The comparable state-level data on UI claims is released one week later than the national data, so the most recent information available at the state-level is for two weeks ago—the week ending March 14. While this does not capture the staggering spike in claims that we saw last week, the early effects of coronavirus are already apparent in many states. Figure A displays the percent change in unemployment insurance claims from the prior week.

UI is a critical tool for ensuring that those who are out of work or have seen their hours reduced are still able to make ends meet. The CARES Act, which Congress is currently debating, would adapt UI to meet the needs of the current crisis by expanding who is eligible (gig workers and the self-employed are usually excluded), giving an additional $600 in weekly benefits, and reducing burdensome waiting period, job search, and earnings requirements. Still, UI is just one of many policy levers that should be used to support workers throughout this crisis. Policymakers in every state should work to ensure that they are protecting public health while reducing economic harm to workers.

Figure A

Initial unemployment insurance claims filed during the week ending March 14, by state

State Initial claims filed Percent change from prior week Level change from prior week Level change from a year ago
Alabama 1,819 -15.8% -341 -330
Alaska 1,120 37.4% 305 165
Arizona 3,844 14.5% 487 456
Arkansas 1,382 -25.0% -461 -60
California 57,606 32.8% 14,221 16,478
Colorado 2,321 24.5% 456 815
Connecticut 3,440 36.1% 913 619
Delaware 472 -8.9% -46 12
Washington D.C. 1,213 157.5% 742 783
Florida 6,463 21.4% 1,138 662
Georgia 5,445 19.2% 876 1,058
Hawaii 1,589 24.6% 314 434
Idaho 1,031 9.9% 93 -12
Illinois 10,870 24.6% 2,143 2,883
Indiana 2,596 16.8% 373 508
Iowa 2,229 0.4% 8 -119
Kansas 1,755 28.6% 390 107
Kentucky 2,785 13.1% 322 680
Louisiana 2,255 32.8% 557 594
Maine 634 -11.3% -81 15
Maryland 3,864 44.4% 1,189 1,271
Massachusetts 7,449 58.1% 2,737 3,095
Michigan 5,338 3.7% 188 182
Minnesota 4,010 15.0% 522 781
Mississippi 1,147 30.5% 268 12
Missouri 4,016 34.1% 1,022 783
Montana 817 14.4% 103 43
Nebraska 795 58.7% 294 7
Nevada 6,356 175.3% 4,047 4,068
New Hampshire 642 29.7% 147 124
New Jersey 9,467 18.4% 1,471 1,614
New Mexico 869 25.9% 179 192
New York 14,272 1.7% 237 1,357
North Carolina 3,533 37.2% 958 865
North Dakota 415 -1.9% -8 127
Ohio 7,046 7.7% 501 597
Oklahoma 1,836 17.0% 267 -833
Oregon 4,269 2.8% 115 563
Pennsylvania 15,439 26.3% 3,212 2,361
Rhode Island 1,108 58.3% 408 221
South Carolina 2,093 10.8% 204 16
South Dakota 190 2.7% 5 47
Tennessee 2,702 33.0% 670 454
Texas 16,176 12.7% 1,821 4,596
Utah 1,305 28.6% 290 391
Vermont 659 47.8% 213 18
Virginia 2,706 7.1% 179 496
Washington 14,240 115.2% 7,624 8,453
West Virginia 865 -16.3% -168 25
Wisconsin 5,190 2.7% 138 -809
Wyoming 517 -3.2% -17 195

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from Department of Labor (DOL), https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf and https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp, March 26, 2020

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Of all the states, Nevada saw the largest percent increase in initial claims filed compared with the prior week. Initial claims there nearly tripled, increasing by 175% or 4,047 additional claims. This is the largest numerical week-to-week increase in Nevada’s history, and the second-largest percentage increase. In Nevada, over 40% of jobs are in the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors. As social distancing measures impact restaurants, bars, hotels, theaters, and other businesses across the country, states like Nevada will feel the effects more acutely.

Washington state, an early epicenter of the coronavirus, was also particularly hard hit. In terms of sheer numbers, it saw the second-largest over-the-week increase in claims (7,624 additional claims) after California (14,240) and the second-largest percentage increase (115%) behind Nevada. Washington’s increase for the week of March 14, 2020, was also the second-largest increase in the state’s history, both in level and percentage terms. Washington, D.C. (158%), Nebraska (58.7%), Rhode Island (58.3%), and Massachusetts (58.1%) also saw claims increase by more than 50%. Data for all states is displayed in Table 1.

Table 1

Initial unemployment insurance claims filed during the week ending March 14, by state

State Initial claims filed Percent change from prior week Level change from prior week Level change from a year ago
Alabama 1,819 -15.8% -341 -330
Alaska 1,120 37.4% 305 165
Arizona 3,844 14.5% 487 456
Arkansas 1,382 -25.0% -461 -60
California 57,606 32.8% 14,221 16,478
Colorado 2,321 24.5% 456 815
Connecticut 3,440 36.1% 913 619
Delaware 472 -8.9% -46 12
District of Columbia 1,213 157.5% 742 783
Florida 6,463 21.4% 1,138 662
Georgia 5,445 19.2% 876 1,058
Hawaii 1,589 24.6% 314 434
Idaho 1,031 9.9% 93 -12
Illinois 10,870 24.6% 2,143 2,883
Indiana 2,596 16.8% 373 508
Iowa 2,229 0.4% 8 -119
Kansas 1,755 28.6% 390 107
Kentucky 2,785 13.1% 322 680
Louisiana 2,255 32.8% 557 594
Maine 634 -11.3% -81 15
Maryland 3,864 44.4% 1,189 1,271
Massachusetts 7,449 58.1% 2,737 3,095
Michigan 5,338 3.7% 188 182
Minnesota 4,010 15.0% 522 781
Mississippi 1,147 30.5% 268 12
Missouri 4,016 34.1% 1,022 783
Montana 817 14.4% 103 43
Nebraska 795 58.7% 294 7
Nevada 6,356 175.3% 4,047 4,068
New Hampshire 642 29.7% 147 124
New Jersey 9,467 18.4% 1,471 1,614
New Mexico 869 25.9% 179 192
New York 14,272 1.7% 237 1,357
North Carolina 3,533 37.2% 958 865
North Dakota 415 -1.9% -8 127
Ohio 7,046 7.7% 501 597
Oklahoma 1,836 17.0% 267 -833
Oregon 4,269 2.8% 115 563
Pennsylvania 15,439 26.3% 3,212 2,361
Rhode Island 1,108 58.3% 408 221
South Carolina 2,093 10.8% 204 16
South Dakota 190 2.7% 5 47
Tennessee 2,702 33.0% 670 454
Texas 16,176 12.7% 1,821 4,596
Utah 1,305 28.6% 290 391
Vermont 659 47.8% 213 18
Virginia 2,706 7.1% 179 496
Washington 14,240 115.2% 7,624 8,453
West Virginia 865 -16.3% -168 25
Wisconsin 5,190 2.7% 138 -809
Wyoming 517 -3.2% -17 195

 

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from Department of Labor (DOL), https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf and https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp, March 26, 2020

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The Department of Labor also provides an advance estimate of initial claims by state for one week ago, shown in Table 2. This advance estimate is available earlier than the official count of initial claims in each state, but it is not directly comparable. (The advance claims are based on the state where the employer is located, whereas the historical data of official claims is based on the resident state of the employee.) Still, these advance estimates indicate that when the official data are released next week, they’re going to show historical levels of UI claims for nearly every state.

Table 2

Advance estimates of initial unemployment insurance claims filed during the week ending March 21, by state

State Advance estimate of initial claims filed Prior week Level change from prior week Percent change from prior week
Alabama 9,490 1,819 7,671 421.7%
Alaska 8,225 1,120 7,105 634.4%
Arizona 29,268 3,844 25,424 661.4%
Arkansas 8,958 1,382 7,576 548.2%
California 186,809 57,606 129,203 224.3%
Colorado 19,429 2,321 17,108 737.1%
Connecticut 25,098 3,440 21,658 629.6%
Delaware 10,720 472 10,248 2,171.2%
District of Columbia 13,473 1,213 12,260 1,010.7%
Florida 74,021 6,463 67,558 1,045.3%
Georgia 11,746 5,445 6,301 115.7%
Hawaii 8,904 1,589 7,315 460.4%
Idaho 13,314 1,031 12,283 1,191.4%
Illinois 114,663 10,870 103,793 954.9%
Indiana 61,635 2,596 59,039 2,274.2%
Iowa 41,890 2,229 39,661 1,779.3%
Kansas 23,687 1,755 21,932 1,249.7%
Kentucky 48,847 2,785 46,062 1,653.9%
Louisiana 72,620 2,255 70,365 3,120.4%
Maine 21,197 634 20,563 3,243.4%
Maryland 41,882 3,864 38,018 983.9%
Massachusetts 147,995 7,449 140,546 1,886.8%
Michigan 129,298 5,338 123,960 2,322.2%
Minnesota 116,438 4,010 112,428 2,803.7%
Mississippi 6,723 1,147 5,576 486.1%
Missouri 40,508 4,016 36,492 908.7%
Montana 14,704 817 13,887 1,699.8%
Nebraska 15,668 795 14,873 1,870.8%
Nevada 93,036 6,356 86,680 1,363.8%
New Hampshire 21,878 642 21236 3,307.8%
New Jersey 155,454 9,467 145,987 1,542.1%
New Mexico 17,187 869 16,318 1,877.8%
New York 80,334 14,272 66,062 462.9%
North Carolina 93,587 3,533 90,054 2,548.9%
North Dakota 5,968 415 5,553 1,338.1%
Ohio 187,784 7,046 180,738 2,565.1%
Oklahoma 17,720 1,836 15,884 865.1%
Oregon 22,824 4,269 18,555 434.6%
Pennsylvania 378,908 15,439 363,469 2,354.2%
Rhode Island 35,436 1,108 34,328 3,098.2%
South Carolina 31,064 2,093 28,971 1,384.2%
South Dakota 1,703 190 1513 796.3%
Tennessee 39,096 2,702 36,394 1,346.9%
Texas 155,657 16,176 139,481 862.3%
Utah 1,314 1,305 9 0.7%
Vermont 3,667 659 3,008 456.4%
Virginia 46,885 2,706 44,179 1,632.6%
Washington 133,478 14,240 119,238 837.3%
West Virginia 3,435 865 2,570 297.1%
Wisconsin 50,957 5,190 45,767 881.8%
Wyoming 2,339 517 1,822 352.4%

Note: Advance claims are not directly comparable to claims reported in prior weeks. Advance claims are reported by the state liable for paying the unemployment compensation, whereas previous weeks’ reported claims reflect claimants by state of residence. In addition, claims reported as “workshare equivalent” in the previous week are added to the advance claims as a proxy for the current week’s “workshare equivalent” activity.

Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Initial Claims [ICSA], retrieved from Department of Labor (DOL), https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf and https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp, March 26, 2020

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