Black Unemployment Rate Falls to Single Digits in April as Black Men Catch Up to Black Women

In January of this year, I projected that the black unemployment rate would reach single digits by mid-2015. That happened this month as job growth of 223,000 in April was more in line with the monthly average in 2014. At 9.6 percent, the black unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been since June 2008 and nearly two (1.8) percentage points below where it was this time last year. Though this is an important milestone, the rate remains above the annual average of 8.3 percent in 2007, meaning there’s still much further to go before we declare a full recovery for black workers.

Though the unemployment rate for black men fell to nearly the same rate for black women in April, black men and black women have made very unequal progress, as can be seen in Figure A. This is an amplification of the fact that although men lost more jobs than women during the recession, they have also rebounded faster in the recovery.

Figure A

Black unemployment rate by gender, December 2007–April 2015

Black Men Black Women
Dec-2007 10.0% 8.0%
Jan-2008 10.0% 8.2%
Feb-2008 9.0% 7.8%
Mar-2008 9.8% 8.7%
Apr-2008 9.2% 8.1%
May-2008 10.4% 8.9%
Jun-2008 10.7% 8.3%
Jul-2008 11.8% 8.3%
Aug-2008 11.4% 9.9%
Sep-2008 12.8% 9.9%
Oct-2008 13.3% 9.6%
Nov-2008 13.6% 9.7%
Dec-2008 14.9% 9.6%
Jan-2009 15.7% 10.1%
Feb-2009 16.5% 11.2%
Mar-2009 16.6% 11.0%
Apr-2009 18.4% 11.9%
May-2009 17.8% 12.4%
Jun-2009 17.5% 12.5%
Jul-2009 17.2% 12.7%
Aug-2009 17.7% 12.3%
Sep-2009 17.6% 13.3%
Oct-2009 18.3% 13.6%
Nov-2009 18.8% 13.0%
Dec-2009 18.4% 14.0%
Jan-2010 19.2% 14.1%
Feb-2010 19.2% 13.3%
Mar-2010 20.6% 13.5%
Apr-2010 18.7% 14.7%
May-2010 17.5% 13.6%
Jun-2010 18.4% 12.4%
Jul-2010 17.8% 13.7%
Aug-2010 18.1% 14.0%
Sep-2010 18.3% 14.0%
Oct-2010 17.6% 13.9%
Nov-2010 18.1% 14.4%
Dec-2010 17.3% 13.9%
Jan-2011 18.1% 13.7%
Feb-2011 17.6% 13.7%
Mar-2011 18.2% 13.6%
Apr-2011 18.6% 14.6%
May-2011 18.5% 14.3%
Jun-2011 17.9% 14.5%
Jul-2011 17.4% 14.4%
Aug-2011 18.6% 14.5%
Sep-2011 17.3% 14.7%
Oct-2011 16.6% 13.0%
Nov-2011 17.6% 13.9%
Dec-2011 16.7% 14.3%
Jan-2012 13.7% 13.4%
Feb-2012 15.6% 12.7%
Mar-2012 15.1% 13.1%
Apr-2012 15.0% 11.7%
May-2012 14.9% 12.3%
Jun-2012 15.3% 13.5%
Jul-2012 15.7% 12.6%
Aug-2012 15.1% 12.9%
Sep-2012 15.2% 12.1%
Oct-2012 15.5% 13.0%
Nov-2012 14.5% 12.3%
Dec-2012 14.8% 13.2%
Jan-2013 14.4% 13.2%
Feb-2013 14.2% 13.5%
Mar-2013 13.7% 12.6%
Apr-2013 13.8% 12.5%
May-2013 14.9% 12.2%
Jun-2013 14.7% 12.9%
Jul-2013 13.5% 11.4%
Aug-2013 14.8% 11.3%
Sep-2013 15.4% 11.0%
Oct-2013 14.0% 12.1%
Nov-2013 13.4% 11.5%
Dec-2013 12.7% 11.1%
Jan-2014 13.3% 11.0%
Feb-2014 13.7% 10.4%
Mar-2014 12.8% 11.7%
Apr-2014 12.0% 10.9%
May-2014 12.2% 10.7%
Jun-2014 11.7% 9.9%
Jul-2014 12.1% 10.8%
Aug-2014 11.7% 11.4%
Sep-2014 11.9% 10.2%
Oct-2014 11.6% 10.2%
Nov-2014 12.1% 10.1%
Dec-2014 12.0% 9.0%
Jan-2015 11.5% 9.3%
Feb-2015 11.3% 9.5%
Mar-2015 10.7% 9.6%
Apr-2015 9.7% 9.5%
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Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey

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Between April 2014 and April 2015, job gains for black men far outpaced those of black women (an increase of 7.6 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively). As a result, black men’s unemployment rate declined 2.3 percentage points over the last year, compared to a decline of 1.4 percentage points for black women. Since the end of 2014, employment growth for black women has slowed even further, leaving black women’s unemployment rate 0.5 percentage points higher in April 2015 than it was in December 2014. Meanwhile, black men’s unemployment rate was 2.3 percentage points lower in April 2015 than December 2014.

Although caution should always be used in placing too much emphasis on a single month of data, the last four months raise some questions about whether the recovery has stalled for black women and why.