Economic Snapshot | Health

Millions of people have a lot to lose under the AHCA

If the Senate votes to pass the American Health Care Act (AHCA), millions of Americans will be unquestionably worse off. In addition to the 23 million Americans who will lose their health insurance coverage by 2026, the economic impacts of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are large and wide-reaching.

As Medicaid is slashed, households’ premium costs skyrocket, and protections for people with preexisting conditions are eliminated, 23 million Americans will lose their health insurance by 2026. The majority would lose it to breathtakingly large cuts to the vital Medicaid program (almost $900 billion over the next decade). Further, millions more would lose the coverage they get through their employer if AHCA passes.

Overall, out-of-pocket costs after premiums would rise by $33 billion each year by 2026 if AHCA is passed. Costs would skyrocket, particularly for those who still needed coverage in the nongroup market—these costs alone would rise by $25 billion.

Nationally, all-else-equal, the AHCA could slow job growth by 1.1 million in 2020, with losses felt in every state. The American Health Care Act (AHCA) drastically cuts spending on Medicaid and subsidies to help people purchase health insurance, while cutting taxes that disproportionately fall on higher-income households. Because low- and moderate-income households tend to spend a much higher share of their disposable income, the overall effect of the AHCA would be less spending and lower aggregate demand across every state and congressional district.


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