At projected rates, excess health care cost growth will crowd out income gains in coming decades: Spending on public health insurance programs and employer contributions to employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) premiums as a share of GDP, current projections and with no excess cost growth, 2018–2048
| Projected | No excess cost growth | |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 13.3654% | 13.3654% |
| 2019 | 13.3653% | 13.3654% |
| 2020 | 13.4911% | 13.4654% |
| 2021 | 13.7170% | 13.6654% |
| 2022 | 14.0429% | 13.9654% |
| 2023 | 14.1687% | 14.0654% |
| 2024 | 14.0945% | 13.9654% |
| 2025 | 14.4203% | 14.2654% |
| 2026 | 14.6461% | 14.4654% |
| 2027 | 14.7719% | 14.5654% |
| 2028 | 15.0977% | 14.8654% |
| 2029 | 15.1234% | 14.7654% |
| 2030 | 15.2492% | 14.7654% |
| 2031 | 15.5749% | 14.9654% |
| 2032 | 15.7006% | 15.0654% |
| 2033 | 15.8263% | 15.0654% |
| 2034 | 16.0519% | 15.1654% |
| 2035 | 16.1776% | 15.1654% |
| 2036 | 16.4032% | 15.2654% |
| 2037 | 16.5288% | 15.2654% |
| 2038 | 16.6545% | 15.3654% |
| 2039 | 16.8801% | 15.3654% |
| 2040 | 17.0056% | 15.3654% |
| 2041 | 17.2312% | 15.3654% |
| 2042 | 17.2567% | 15.3654% |
| 2043 | 17.4823% | 15.3654% |
| 2044 | 17.6078% | 15.4654% |
| 2045 | 17.7333% | 15.5654% |
| 2046 | 17.8588% | 15.5654% |
| 2047 | 17.9842% | 15.5654% |
| 2048 | 18.1097% | 15.5654% |
Notes: We use potential GDP in our calculations. Potential GDP is a measure of what GDP could be as long as the economy did not suffer from excess unemployment. The difference between the growth rate of potential GDP per capita and health spending per capita is often described as “excess cost growth” in health care. Potential GDP is used to measure excess health care cost growth so that it is not infected by economic recessions and booms.
Sources: Data on projected public spending on public health insurance programs include Medicare, Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program and subsidies for Affordable Care Act marketplace exchanges from Congressional Budget Office 2018c. For projections of employer contributions to ESI premiums, we use the data from Figure G and then project that the ratio of earnings to total compensation will be reduced by rising health care costs at the rate forecast by the Social Security Administration (SSA 2018).
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