Figure H
Excess cost growth pushes up spending on public health insurance programs: Public spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Children’s Health Insurance Program as a share of GDP, actual and if there had been no excess cost growth, 1987–2016
| Year | Actual | No excess cost growth |
|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 1988 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 1989 | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 1990 | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| 1991 | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| 1992 | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| 1993 | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| 1994 | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| 1995 | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| 1996 | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| 1997 | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| 1998 | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| 1999 | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| 2000 | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| 2001 | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| 2002 | 4.7% | 3.9% |
| 2003 | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 2004 | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| 2005 | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| 2006 | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| 2007 | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| 2008 | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| 2009 | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| 2010 | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| 2011 | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| 2012 | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| 2013 | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| 2014 | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| 2015 | 6.7% | 5.2% |
| 2016 | 6.7% | 5.4% |
Notes: We use potential GDP in our calculations. Potential GDP is a measure of what GDP could be as long as the economy did not suffer from excess unemployment. The difference between the growth rate of potential GDP per capita and health spending per capita is often described as “excess cost growth” in health care. Potential GDP is used to measure excess health care cost growth so that it is not infected by economic recessions and booms.
Source: Author’s analysis of data from CMS 2018
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