U.S. trade deficit and projected deficit under three currency-manipulation-elimination scenarios, 1997–2014*
* This figure estimates the effects of ending currency manipulation over three years, modeled as having started in 2011.
Note: Authors' analysis of U.S. goods trade from the BEA (2012a), 1997–2011, and IMF projections of the rates of growth of U.S. imports and exports in the 2012–2014 period (IMF 2012b) were used to project the U.S. goods trade deficit in the base case. Ex post changes in U.S. trade deficits due to the elimination of currency manipulation in 2014 (Table 1 in this paper) were subtracted from the projected 2014 U.S. trade deficit. The low-impact scenario corresponds to an ex-post reduction of $184.1 billion in the U.S. trade deficit, as shown in Table 1 ($748.4 billion – $184.1 billion = $564.3 billion), and the high-impact scenario corresponds to an ex-post reduction of $387.5 billion, as shown in Table 1 ($748.4 billion – $387.5 billion = $360.9 billion). Estimates for 2012–2013 for each of these series were extrapolated from the end point values for 2011 and 2014 using constant, compound rates of growth.
Source: Authors' analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (BEA 2012a), International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (IMF 2012b), Congressional Budget Office (2012a), and IMPLAN model (MIG Inc. 2012)
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