The economy has made great strides since the recession began, but there is still work to be done
Today’s jobs report gives us an opportunity to compare how the economy is treating Americans today compared with December 2007, when the recession began. As the recovery has strengthened we’ve seen improvements in all measures of employment, unemployment, and wage growth. All measures indicate a consistent story—an economy on its way to full employment, but not there yet. Taking a data-driven approach to policymaking would mean continuing to push, keeping interest rates low and letting the economy recover for Americans across genders, races, ethnicities, and levels of educational attainment.
In December, the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.7 percent because of a small but positive increase in the labor force participation rate. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent during the recession, and at 4.7 percent it is now below where it was before the recession began (5.0 percent). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for black workers hit 7.8 percent in December. This is its lowest point so far in the recovery, but it’s still slightly above its pre-recession low in August 2007 (7.6 percent). Likewise, the unemployment rate for Hispanic workers (5.9 percent) has stagnated for much of the year and remains significantly above its pre-recession low point of 4.7 percent in October 2006. The underemployment rate—which adds in workers who are part-time for economic reasons and those marginally attached—was 9.2 percent in December and still hasn’t reached its pre-recession level (8.8 percent). So, while the economy is the strongest it’s been in years, there are still a lot of workers sitting on the sidelines and underutilized, and a lot of communities that are not feeling the full extent of the recovery.
Two other important indicators, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) and nominal wage growth, are still far lower than would be expected in a stronger economy. Prime-age EPOP, the share of the population 25-54 years old with a job, has been one of the major indicators lagging behind in the recovery. As shown in the figure below, the prime-age EPOP has been slowly but fairly steadily improving since it bottomed out in 2010, hitting 78.2 percent in December. The graph also shows recent relevant benchmarks with which to judge progress on this measure. At 78.2 percent, it has exceeded the lowest point in the last two full business cycles, but has yet to hit the lowest mark of the last full business cycle. And, it remains far below its high points in both of the last two recessions. In a strong economy, we could expect a greater share of prime-working-age workers to actually have a job. If the economy continues to improve as it has over the last year, more people will be pulled off the sidelines and back into the labor force.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public dataEmployment-to-population ratio of workers ages 25-54, 1989–2016
Employment-to-population ratio
Jan-1989
80.0
Feb-1989
79.9
Mar-1989
79.9
Apr-1989
79.8
May-1989
79.8
Jun-1989
79.8
Jul-1989
79.8
Aug-1989
79.9
Sep-1989
80.0
Oct-1989
79.9
Nov-1989
80.2
Dec-1989
80.1
Jan-1990
80.2
Feb-1990
80.2
Mar-1990
80.1
Apr-1990
79.9
May-1990
79.9
Jun-1990
79.8
Jul-1990
79.6
Aug-1990
79.5
Sep-1990
79.4
Oct-1990
79.4
Nov-1990
79.2
Dec-1990
79.0
Jan-1991
78.9
Feb-1991
78.9
Mar-1991
78.7
Apr-1991
79.0
May-1991
78.6
Jun-1991
78.7
Jul-1991
78.6
Aug-1991
78.5
Sep-1991
78.6
Oct-1991
78.5
Nov-1991
78.4
Dec-1991
78.3
Jan-1992
78.4
Feb-1992
78.2
Mar-1992
78.2
Apr-1992
78.4
May-1992
78.4
Jun-1992
78.5
Jul-1992
78.4
Aug-1992
78.4
Sep-1992
78.3
Oct-1992
78.2
Nov-1992
78.2
Dec-1992
78.2
Jan-1993
78.2
Feb-1993
78.1%
Mar-1993
78.2
Apr-1993
78.2
May-1993
78.5
Jun-1993
78.6
Jul-1993
78.6
Aug-1993
78.8
Sep-1993
78.6
Oct-1993
78.7
Nov-1993
79.0
Dec-1993
79.0
Jan-1994
78.9
Feb-1994
78.9
Mar-1994
78.9
Apr-1994
79.0
May-1994
79.2
Jun-1994
78.8
Jul-1994
79.1
Aug-1994
79.2
Sep-1994
79.6
Oct-1994
79.6
Nov-1994
79.8
Dec-1994
79.8
Jan-1995
79.7
Feb-1995
80.0
Mar-1995
79.9
Apr-1995
79.8
May-1995
79.7
Jun-1995
79.5
Jul-1995
79.7
Aug-1995
79.6
Sep-1995
79.8
Oct-1995
79.8
Nov-1995
79.7
Dec-1995
79.7
Jan-1996
79.8
Feb-1996
79.9
Mar-1996
79.9
Apr-1996
79.9
May-1996
80.0
Jun-1996
80.1
Jul-1996
80.4
Aug-1996
80.5
Sep-1996
80.4
Oct-1996
80.6
Nov-1996
80.5
Dec-1996
80.5
Jan-1997
80.5
Feb-1997
80.4
Mar-1997
80.6
Apr-1997
80.7
May-1997
80.6
Jun-1997
80.9
Jul-1997
81.1
Aug-1997
81.3
Sep-1997
81.1
Oct-1997
81.1
Nov-1997
81.0
Dec-1997
81.0
Jan-1998
81.0
Feb-1998
81.0
Mar-1998
81.0
Apr-1998
81.1
May-1998
81.0
Jun-1998
81.0
Jul-1998
81.1
Aug-1998
81.2
Sep-1998
81.3
Oct-1998
81.1
Nov-1998
81.2
Dec-1998
81.3
Jan-1999
81.8
Feb-1999
81.5
Mar-1999
81.3
Apr-1999
81.3
May-1999
81.4
Jun-1999
81.4
Jul-1999
81.2
Aug-1999
81.3
Sep-1999
81.3
Oct-1999
81.5
Nov-1999
81.6
Dec-1999
81.5
Jan-2000
81.8
Feb-2000
81.8
Mar-2000
81.7
Apr-2000
81.9%
May-2000
81.5
Jun-2000
81.5
Jul-2000
81.3
Aug-2000
81.1
Sep-2000
81.1
Oct-2000
81.1
Nov-2000
81.3
Dec-2000
81.4
Jan-2001
81.4
Feb-2001
81.3
Mar-2001
81.3
Apr-2001
80.9
May-2001
80.8
Jun-2001
80.6
Jul-2001
80.5
Aug-2001
80.2
Sep-2001
80.2
Oct-2001
79.9
Nov-2001
79.7
Dec-2001
79.8
Jan-2002
79.6
Feb-2002
79.8
Mar-2002
79.6
Apr-2002
79.5
May-2002
79.4
Jun-2002
79.2
Jul-2002
79.1
Aug-2002
79.3
Sep-2002
79.4
Oct-2002
79.2
Nov-2002
78.8
Dec-2002
79.0
Jan-2003
78.9
Feb-2003
78.9
Mar-2003
79.0
Apr-2003
79.1
May-2003
78.9
Jun-2003
78.9
Jul-2003
78.8
Aug-2003
78.7
Sep-2003
78.6%
Oct-2003
78.6
Nov-2003
78.7
Dec-2003
78.8
Jan-2004
78.9
Feb-2004
78.8
Mar-2004
78.7
Apr-2004
78.9
May-2004
79.0
Jun-2004
79.1
Jul-2004
79.2
Aug-2004
79.0
Sep-2004
79.0
Oct-2004
79.0
Nov-2004
79.1
Dec-2004
78.9
Jan-2005
79.2
Feb-2005
79.2
Mar-2005
79.2
Apr-2005
79.4
May-2005
79.5
Jun-2005
79.2
Jul-2005
79.4
Aug-2005
79.6
Sep-2005
79.4
Oct-2005
79.3
Nov-2005
79.2
Dec-2005
79.3
Jan-2006
79.6
Feb-2006
79.7
Mar-2006
79.8
Apr-2006
79.6
May-2006
79.7
Jun-2006
79.8
Jul-2006
79.8
Aug-2006
79.8
Sep-2006
79.9
Oct-2006
80.1
Nov-2006
80.0
Dec-2006
80.1
Jan-2007
80.3%
Feb-2007
80.1
Mar-2007
80.2
Apr-2007
80.0
May-2007
80.0
Jun-2007
79.9
Jul-2007
79.8
Aug-2007
79.8
Sep-2007
79.7
Oct-2007
79.6
Nov-2007
79.7
Dec-2007
79.7
Jan-2008
80.0
Feb-2008
79.9
Mar-2008
79.8
Apr-2008
79.6
May-2008
79.5
Jun-2008
79.4
Jul-2008
79.2
Aug-2008
78.8
Sep-2008
78.8
Oct-2008
78.4
Nov-2008
78.1
Dec-2008
77.6
Jan-2009
77.0
Feb-2009
76.7
Mar-2009
76.2
Apr-2009
76.2
May-2009
75.9
Jun-2009
75.9
Jul-2009
75.8
Aug-2009
75.6
Sep-2009
75.1
Oct-2009
75.0
Nov-2009
75.2
Dec-2009
74.8
Jan-2010
75.1
Feb-2010
75.1
Mar-2010
75.1
Apr-2010
75.4
May-2010
75.1
Jun-2010
75.2
Jul-2010
75.1
Aug-2010
75.0
Sep-2010
75.1
Oct-2010
75.0
Nov-2010
74.8%
Dec-2010
75.0
Jan-2011
75.2
Feb-2011
75.1
Mar-2011
75.3
Apr-2011
75.1
May-2011
75.2
Jun-2011
75.0
Jul-2011
75.0
Aug-2011
75.1
Sep-2011
74.9
Oct-2011
74.9
Nov-2011
75.3
Dec-2011
75.4
Jan-2012
75.5
Feb-2012
75.5
Mar-2012
75.7
Apr-2012
75.7
May-2012
75.7
Jun-2012
75.6
Jul-2012
75.6
Aug-2012
75.7
Sep-2012
76.0
Oct-2012
76.1
Nov-2012
75.8
Dec-2012
76.0
Jan-2013
75.6
Feb-2013
75.8
Mar-2013
75.8
Apr-2013
75.9
May-2013
76.0
Jun-2013
75.9
Jul-2013
76.0
Aug-2013
75.9
Sep-2013
76.0
Oct-2013
75.6
Nov-2013
76.1
Dec-2013
76.2
Jan-2014
76.4
Feb-2014
76.4
Mar-2014
76.6
Apr-2014
76.5
May-2014
76.4
Jun-2014
76.8
Jul-2014
76.7
Aug-2014
76.8
Sep-2014
76.8
Oct-2014
77.0
Nov-2014
77.0
Dec-2014
77.1
Jan-2015
77.1
Feb-2015
77.2
Mar-2015
77.2
Apr-2015
77.2
May-2015
77.2
Jun-2015
77.2
Jul-2015
77.1
Aug-2015
77.2
Sep-2015
77.3
Oct-2015
77.3
Nov-2015
77.5
Dec-2015
77.5
Jan-2016
77.7
Feb-2016
77.8
Mar-2016
78.0
Apr-2016
77.7
May-2016
77.8
Jun-2016
77.8
Jul-2016
78.0
Aug-2016
77.8
Sep-2016
78.0
Oct-2016
78.2
Nov-2016
78.2
Dec-2016
78.2%
Year-over-year nominal hourly wages grew at 2.9 percent in December, the fastest rate of growth so far in the recovery. While the pace of wage growth has improved as the economy strengthens, it is still below levels consistent with the Fed’s target inflation rate and trend productivity growth. Wage growth is simply not putting worrisome upward pressure on inflation. If this is the indicator the Federal Reserve is most closely eyeing when it decides whether or not to raise interest rates, then the data shows they should hold off. The labor market—and surely the workers in it—can withstand stronger wage growth for a sustained period of time.
Nominal wage growth has been far below target in the recovery: Year-over-year change in private-sector nominal average hourly earnings, 2007–2017
Date | All nonfarm employees | Production/nonsupervisory workers |
---|---|---|
Mar-2007 | 3.44% | 4.17% |
Apr-2007 | 3.13% | 3.85% |
May-2007 | 3.53% | 4.14% |
Jun-2007 | 3.61% | 4.13% |
Jul-2007 | 3.25% | 4.05% |
Aug-2007 | 3.35% | 4.04% |
Sep-2007 | 3.09% | 4.09% |
Oct-2007 | 3.03% | 3.72% |
Nov-2007 | 3.07% | 3.89% |
Dec-2007 | 2.92% | 3.75% |
Jan-2008 | 2.91% | 3.80% |
Feb-2008 | 2.85% | 3.79% |
Mar-2008 | 3.04% | 3.71% |
Apr-2008 | 2.89% | 3.70% |
May-2008 | 3.07% | 3.69% |
Jun-2008 | 2.67% | 3.62% |
Jul-2008 | 3.05% | 3.67% |
Aug-2008 | 3.33% | 3.89% |
Sep-2008 | 3.28% | 3.70% |
Oct-2008 | 3.32% | 3.93% |
Nov-2008 | 3.50% | 3.80% |
Dec-2008 | 3.59% | 3.90% |
Jan-2009 | 3.58% | 3.72% |
Feb-2009 | 3.43% | 3.65% |
Mar-2009 | 3.28% | 3.53% |
Apr-2009 | 3.37% | 3.35% |
May-2009 | 2.93% | 3.11% |
Jun-2009 | 2.88% | 2.88% |
Jul-2009 | 2.69% | 2.76% |
Aug-2009 | 2.44% | 2.64% |
Sep-2009 | 2.44% | 2.75% |
Oct-2009 | 2.53% | 2.68% |
Nov-2009 | 2.15% | 2.73% |
Dec-2009 | 1.96% | 2.50% |
Jan-2010 | 2.09% | 2.66% |
Feb-2010 | 2.09% | 2.55% |
Mar-2010 | 1.81% | 2.27% |
Apr-2010 | 1.81% | 2.38% |
May-2010 | 1.90% | 2.54% |
Jun-2010 | 1.76% | 2.53% |
Jul-2010 | 1.85% | 2.42% |
Aug-2010 | 1.75% | 2.36% |
Sep-2010 | 1.84% | 2.19% |
Oct-2010 | 1.93% | 2.51% |
Nov-2010 | 1.79% | 2.18% |
Dec-2010 | 1.74% | 2.02% |
Jan-2011 | 1.92% | 2.17% |
Feb-2011 | 1.83% | 2.06% |
Mar-2011 | 1.83% | 2.06% |
Apr-2011 | 1.87% | 2.11% |
May-2011 | 2.04% | 2.05% |
Jun-2011 | 2.13% | 2.05% |
Jul-2011 | 2.30% | 2.26% |
Aug-2011 | 1.95% | 1.99% |
Sep-2011 | 1.94% | 1.99% |
Oct-2011 | 2.07% | 1.72% |
Nov-2011 | 1.98% | 1.82% |
Dec-2011 | 2.07% | 1.87% |
Jan-2012 | 1.79% | 1.40% |
Feb-2012 | 1.79% | 1.45% |
Mar-2012 | 2.14% | 1.71% |
Apr-2012 | 2.09% | 1.65% |
May-2012 | 1.74% | 1.44% |
Jun-2012 | 1.96% | 1.54% |
Jul-2012 | 1.69% | 1.33% |
Aug-2012 | 1.86% | 1.33% |
Sep-2012 | 1.99% | 1.38% |
Oct-2012 | 1.51% | 1.28% |
Nov-2012 | 1.94% | 1.43% |
Dec-2012 | 2.11% | 1.58% |
Jan-2013 | 2.06% | 1.89% |
Feb-2013 | 2.19% | 2.04% |
Mar-2013 | 1.88% | 1.88% |
Apr-2013 | 1.97% | 1.78% |
May-2013 | 2.14% | 1.93% |
Jun-2013 | 2.17% | 2.03% |
Jul-2013 | 2.04% | 2.03% |
Aug-2013 | 2.26% | 2.23% |
Sep-2013 | 2.08% | 2.28% |
Oct-2013 | 2.25% | 2.27% |
Nov-2013 | 2.20% | 2.37% |
Dec-2013 | 1.98% | 2.26% |
Jan-2014 | 2.02% | 2.31% |
Feb-2014 | 2.23% | 2.50% |
Mar-2014 | 2.14% | 2.35% |
Apr-2014 | 2.01% | 2.40% |
May-2014 | 2.13% | 2.44% |
Jun-2014 | 2.00% | 2.34% |
Jul-2014 | 2.09% | 2.38% |
Aug-2014 | 2.21% | 2.43% |
Sep-2014 | 2.04% | 2.27% |
Oct-2014 | 2.03% | 2.27% |
Nov-2014 | 2.03% | 2.21% |
Dec-2014 | 1.86% | 1.92% |
Jan-2015 | 2.19% | 2.01% |
Feb-2015 | 1.93% | 1.61% |
Mar-2015 | 2.22% | 2.00% |
Apr-2015 | 2.26% | 2.00% |
May-2015 | 2.30% | 2.14% |
Jun-2015 | 2.09% | 1.99% |
Jul-2015 | 2.21% | 2.04% |
Aug-2015 | 2.24% | 2.08% |
Sep-2015 | 2.32% | 2.13% |
Oct-2015 | 2.56% | 2.32% |
Nov-2015 | 2.39% | 2.12% |
Dec-2015 | 2.52% | 2.56% |
Jan-2016 | 2.51% | 2.45% |
Feb-2016 | 2.38% | 2.45% |
Mar-2016 | 2.45% | 2.44% |
Apr-2016 | 2.61% | 2.58% |
May-2016 | 2.52% | 2.33% |
Jun-2016 | 2.64% | 2.52% |
Jul-2016 | 2.76% | 2.61% |
Aug-2016 | 2.55% | 2.46% |
Sep-2016 | 2.75% | 2.65% |
Oct-2016 | 2.74% | 2.50% |
Nov-2016 | 2.65% | 2.50% |
Dec-2016 | 2.85% | 2.54% |
Jan-2017 | 2.56% | 2.39% |
Feb-2017 | 2.84% | 2.48% |
Mar-2017 | 2.63% | 2.34% |
Apr-2017 | 2.51% | 2.38% |
May-2017 | 2.46% | 2.42% |
*Nominal wage growth consistent with the Federal Reserve Board's 2 percent inflation target, 1.5 percent productivity growth, and a stable labor share of income.
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series
All told, it’s clear that the next president is inheriting an economy much stronger than it was at the start of the previous administration—but there is still more work to do. The Federal Reserve should keep its foot off the brake until wage growth picks up, and Congress and the president should forgo budget cuts and austerity measures. Not only would cuts to social safety net programs hurt the people who rely on them to make ends meet to put a roof over their heads, to put food on the table, and get the health care they need, we’ve also seen austerity at all levels of government put a drag on the economy.
Working families need good jobs, decent wages, and reliable benefits—which means we need policymakers to make returning the country to full employment a top priority. We need to keep our eye on solutions at the scale of the problem, not piecemeal strategies. That means monetary and fiscal policy that sustains job growth and gets us back to full employment and stronger wage growth. To improve living standards to the vast majority Americans, policymakers need to strengthen the safety net, bolster labor standards, forgo austerity, and ensure that interest rates stay low so that the growing economy reaches all.
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