New Data Show Top 1 Percent Really are Different from You and Me

On Monday, we released new estimates of top incomes by state for 2012, based on the work done by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. Coincidentally, Saez just released a preliminary update to 2013 of the national top income time series. Saez’s key finding is that the average income of the top 1 percent in the U.S. fell in 2013 by 14.9%. This decline at the top was large enough to lower overall average incomes in 2013 by 3.2%. The good news is, the bottom 99% saw their earnings climb—but by a very modest and somewhat disappointing 0.2%.

Illustrating that the top 1 percent really are different from you and me, Saez notes the fall in income at the top is due to high income earners shifting income from 2013 to 2012 in an effort to reduce their tax liabilities in anticipation of higher top marginal tax rates which took effect in 2013. In an earlier EPI analysis in October 2014, Lawrence Mishel and Will Kimball reported on the decline of wages among the top 1 percent of wage earners, which prefigured these results for households. Similarly, Mishel and Kimball also noted the changes in taxes and suggested this decline was probably only temporary.

Saez expects top incomes to rebound in 2014, but fall short of their 2012 values. Indeed, James Parrott of the Fiscal Policy Institute noted in his summary of New York State top income trends (look up your state’s top income trends here) that data from the New York State Division of the Budget indicate that the top 1 percent’s share of New York personal income tax liability is expected to reach 42.5% in 2015—just shy of its 2012 value of 43.2%.

So the bottom line is top income growth paused briefly in 2013, but all signs point to a return to growth when we get the data for 2014 and 2015. The bottom 99 percent experienced slight income gains in 2013, but given trends in wage growth it may be a while before we see much stronger gains in income for the rest of us.

Figure A

Share of all income held by the top 1%, United States and by region, 1917–2013

Year United States (by Piketty and Saez) Northeast  Midwest  South  West 
1917 18% 23 13 16 13
1918 16 20 12 15 12
1919 16 21 13 14 12
1920 15 18 12 13 11
1921 16 18 13 14 12
1922 17 20 14 15 13
1923 16 18 13 14 12
1924 17 20 15 15 13
1925 20 23 17 18 15
1926 20 22 17 18 16
1927 21 23 18 19 16
1928 24 26 21 20 19
1929 22 27 18 17 16
1930 17 19 15 15 14
1931 15 16 14 15 13
1932 16 16 13 15 12
1933 16 18 14 15 13
1934 16 17 15 16 14
1935 17 18 14 16 14
1936 19 20 18 19 16
1937 17 18 15 17 15
1938 16 15 14 16 13
1939 16 16 15 16 13
1940 16 16 15 17 13
1941 16 15 15 16 13
1942 13 14 13 13 11
1943 12 13 11 12 11
1944 11 11 13 12 11
1945 13 15 12 12 11
1946 13 14 12 13 11
1947 12 12 11 12 10
1948 12 13 11 13 12
1949 12 12 11 12 11
1950 13 14 12 13 12
1951 12 13 11 12 11
1952 11 12 10 11 10
1953 10 11 9 10 9
1954 11 12 10 11 10
1955 11 12 10 11 10
1956 11 12 10 11 10
1957 10 11 10 11 9
1958 10 11 9 10 9
1959 11 12 9 11 10
1960 10 11 9 10 9
1961 11 12 10 11 10
1962 10 11 9 10 9
1963 10 11 9 10 9
1964 10 11 10 11 10
1965 11 12 10 11 10
1966 10 11 10 11 9
1967 11 12 10 11 10
1968 11 13 10 11 10
1969 10 12 10 11 9
1970 9 10 9 9 8
1971 9 10 9 10 9
1972 10 10 9 10 9
1973 9 10 8 10 9
1974 9 9 8 9 8
1975 9 9 8 10 8
1976 9 9 8 9 8
1977 9 9 8 10 9
1978 9 9 8 9 9
1979 10 10 9 10 10
1980 10 11 9 10 9
1981 10 11 9 10 9
1982 11 11 10 11 9
1983 12
1984 12
1985 13
1986 16 15 11 13 12
1987 13 13 10 11 10
1988 15 15 11 13 12
1989 14 14 11 12 12
1990 14 16 13 14 15
1991 13 15 12 13 14
1992 15 17 13 14 14
1993 14 16 13 14 14
1994 14 16 13 14 14
1995 15 17 14 15 15
1996 17 19 17 16 16
1997 18 20 15 17 18
1998 19 22 16 18 19
1999 20 23 16 18 22
2000 22 25 16 18 24
2001 18 23 15 16 18
2002 17 20 14 15 16
2003 18 18 13 15 16
2004 20 22 16 18 20
2005 22 24 17 20 22
2006 23 24 17 21 22
2007 24 26 18 20 22
2008 21 23 16 19 18
2009 18 21 15 17 17
2010 20 24 17 18 20
2011 20 24 17 18 19
2012 22 26 19 21 23
2013 20.081
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Data are for tax units. Tax data from 1983 to 1985 were unavailable, hence the gap in regional figures. Income includes capital gains income.

Source: Authors’ analysis of state-level tax data from Sommeiller (2006) extended to 2012 using state-level data from the Internal Revenue Service SOI Tax Stats (various years), and Piketty and Saez (2012)

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