Moving Towards a Tighter Labor Market, But We Are Not There Yet

While the U.S. economy has been solidly adding jobs for many months now, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) released today is another indicator of how much slack still remains in the labor market.

The figure below plots job openings and unemployment levels from December 2000 to January 2015, the latest month of data available. Both indicators are moving in the right direction and have clearly been improving, albeit slowly, throughout the recovery. However, in a stronger labor market, these two indicators would be closer together. The gap is a good indicator of a certain amount of slack. And, it is important to point out that the unemployment level doesn’t include the nearly 6 million missing workers, who have yet to enter or return to the labor force.

JOLTS

Job openings levels and unemployment levels, December 2000–January 2015

Month Job Openings level Unemployment level
Dec-2000 4.934 5.634
Jan-2001 5.273 6.023
Feb-2001 4.706 6.089
Mar-2001 4.618 6.141
Apr-2001 4.668 6.271
May-2001 4.444 6.226
Jun-2001 4.232 6.484
Jul-2001 4.354 6.583
Aug-2001 4.095 7.042
Sep-2001 3.973 7.142
Oct-2001 3.594 7.694
Nov-2001 3.545 8.003
Dec-2001 3.586 8.258
Jan-2002 3.587 8.182
Feb-2002 3.412 8.215
Mar-2002 3.605 8.304
Apr-2002 3.357 8.599
May-2002 3.525 8.399
Jun-2002 3.325 8.393
Jul-2002 3.343 8.39
Aug-2002 3.462 8.304
Sep-2002 3.319 8.251
Oct-2002 3.502 8.307
Nov-2002 3.585 8.52
Dec-2002 3.074 8.64
Jan-2003 3.686 8.52
Feb-2003 3.402 8.618
Mar-2003 3.101 8.588
Apr-2003 3.182 8.842
May-2003 3.201 8.957
Jun-2003 3.356 9.266
Jul-2003 3.195 9.011
Aug-2003 3.239 8.896
Sep-2003 3.054 8.921
Oct-2003 3.196 8.732
Nov-2003 3.316 8.576
Dec-2003 3.334 8.317
Jan-2004 3.391 8.37
Feb-2004 3.437 8.167
Mar-2004 3.42 8.491
Apr-2004 3.466 8.17
May-2004 3.658 8.212
Jun-2004 3.384 8.286
Jul-2004 3.835 8.136
Aug-2004 3.578 7.99
Sep-2004 3.704 7.927
Oct-2004 3.779 8.061
Nov-2004 3.456 7.932
Dec-2004 3.846 7.934
Jan-2005 3.595 7.784
Feb-2005 3.842 7.98
Mar-2005 3.891 7.737
Apr-2005 4.115 7.672
May-2005 3.824 7.651
Jun-2005 4.018 7.524
Jul-2005 4.162 7.406
Aug-2005 4.085 7.345
Sep-2005 4.227 7.553
Oct-2005 4.23 7.453
Nov-2005 4.341 7.566
Dec-2005 4.249 7.279
Jan-2006 4.278 7.064
Feb-2006 4.308 7.184
Mar-2006 4.537 7.072
Apr-2006 4.495 7.12
May-2006 4.432 6.98
Jun-2006 4.331 7.001
Jul-2006 4.081 7.175
Aug-2006 4.411 7.091
Sep-2006 4.498 6.847
Oct-2006 4.454 6.727
Nov-2006 4.622 6.872
Dec-2006 4.552 6.762
Jan-2007 4.59 7.116
Feb-2007 4.481 6.927
Mar-2007 4.657 6.731
Apr-2007 4.534 6.85
May-2007 4.531 6.766
Jun-2007 4.639 6.979
Jul-2007 4.43 7.149
Aug-2007 4.508 7.067
Sep-2007 4.481 7.17
Oct-2007 4.278 7.237
Nov-2007 4.278 7.24
Dec-2007 4.323 7.645
Jan-2008 4.223 7.685
Feb-2008 4.039 7.497
Mar-2008 4.012 7.822
Apr-2008 3.85 7.637
May-2008 4 8.395
Jun-2008 3.67 8.575
Jul-2008 3.762 8.937
Aug-2008 3.584 9.438
Sep-2008 3.21 9.494
Oct-2008 3.273 10.074
Nov-2008 3.059 10.538
Dec-2008 3.049 11.286
Jan-2009 2.763 12.058
Feb-2009 2.794 12.898
Mar-2009 2.493 13.426
Apr-2009 2.271 13.853
May-2009 2.413 14.499
Jun-2009 2.388 14.707
Jul-2009 2.146 14.601
Aug-2009 2.294 14.814
Sep-2009 2.434 15.009
Oct-2009 2.376 15.352
Nov-2009 2.419 15.219
Dec-2009 2.49 15.098
Jan-2010 2.706 15.046
Feb-2010 2.561 15.113
Mar-2010 2.652 15.202
Apr-2010 3.097 15.325
May-2010 2.9 14.849
Jun-2010 2.728 14.474
Jul-2010 2.929 14.512
Aug-2010 2.869 14.648
Sep-2010 2.782 14.579
Oct-2010 3.026 14.516
Nov-2010 3.072 15.081
Dec-2010 2.909 14.348
Jan-2011 2.917 14.046
Feb-2011 3.065 13.828
Mar-2011 3.132 13.728
Apr-2011 3.099 13.956
May-2011 3.032 13.853
Jun-2011 3.194 13.958
Jul-2011 3.417 13.756
Aug-2011 3.138 13.806
Sep-2011 3.557 13.929
Oct-2011 3.422 13.599
Nov-2011 3.215 13.309
Dec-2011 3.527 13.071
Jan-2012 3.653 12.812
Feb-2012 3.517 12.828
Mar-2012 3.837 12.696
Apr-2012 3.627 12.636
May-2012 3.696 12.668
Jun-2012 3.785 12.688
Jul-2012 3.587 12.657
Aug-2012 3.637 12.449
Sep-2012 3.614 12.106
Oct-2012 3.729 12.141
Nov-2012 3.741 12.026
Dec-2012 3.64 12.272
Jan-2013 3.77 12.497
Feb-2013 4.023 11.967
Mar-2013 3.891 11.653
Apr-2013 3.84 11.735
May-2013 3.829 11.671
Jun-2013 3.864 11.736
Jul-2013 3.829 11.357
Aug-2013 3.893 11.241
Sep-2013 3.955 11.251
Oct-2013 4.076 11.161
Nov-2013 4.073 10.814
Dec-2013 3.977 10.376
Jan-2014 3.906 10.28
Feb-2014 4.160 10.387
Mar-2014 4.210 10.384
Apr-2014 4.417 9.696
May-2014 4.608 9.761
Jun-2014 4.710 9.453
Jul-2014 4.726 9.648
Aug-2014 4.925 9.568
Sep-2014 4.678 9.237
Oct-2014 4.849 8.983
Nov-2014 4.886 9.071
Dec-2014 4.877 8.688
Jan-2015 4.998 8.979

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Another way to look at that gap is to create a ratio of job seekers to job openings. The number of job openings hit 5 million in January, while there were 9 million unemployed workers. Taken together, this means there were 1.8 times as many job seekers as job openings. As shown in the figure below, the job-seekers-to-job-openings ratio has been declining steadily from its high of 6.8-to-1 in July 2009.

JOLTS

The job-seekers ratio, December 2000–January 2015

Month Unemployed job seekers per job opening
Dec-2000 1.1
Jan-2001 1.1
Feb-2001 1.3
Mar-2001 1.3
Apr-2001 1.3
May-2001 1.4
Jun-2001 1.5
Jul-2001 1.5
Aug-2001 1.7
Sep-2001 1.8
Oct-2001 2.1
Nov-2001 2.3
Dec-2001 2.3
Jan-2002 2.3
Feb-2002 2.4
Mar-2002 2.3
Apr-2002 2.6
May-2002 2.4
Jun-2002 2.5
Jul-2002 2.5
Aug-2002 2.4
Sep-2002 2.5
Oct-2002 2.4
Nov-2002 2.4
Dec-2002 2.8
Jan-2003 2.3
Feb-2003 2.5
Mar-2003 2.8
Apr-2003 2.8
May-2003 2.8
Jun-2003 2.8
Jul-2003 2.8
Aug-2003 2.7
Sep-2003 2.9
Oct-2003 2.7
Nov-2003 2.6
Dec-2003 2.5
Jan-2004 2.5
Feb-2004 2.4
Mar-2004 2.5
Apr-2004 2.4
May-2004 2.2
Jun-2004 2.4
Jul-2004 2.1
Aug-2004 2.2
Sep-2004 2.1
Oct-2004 2.1
Nov-2004 2.3
Dec-2004 2.1
Jan-2005 2.2
Feb-2005 2.1
Mar-2005 2.0
Apr-2005 1.9
May-2005 2.0
Jun-2005 1.9
Jul-2005 1.8
Aug-2005 1.8
Sep-2005 1.8
Oct-2005 1.8
Nov-2005 1.7
Dec-2005 1.7
Jan-2006 1.7
Feb-2006 1.7
Mar-2006 1.6
Apr-2006 1.6
May-2006 1.6
Jun-2006 1.6
Jul-2006 1.8
Aug-2006 1.6
Sep-2006 1.5
Oct-2006 1.5
Nov-2006 1.5
Dec-2006 1.5
Jan-2007 1.6
Feb-2007 1.5
Mar-2007 1.4
Apr-2007 1.5
May-2007 1.5
Jun-2007 1.5
Jul-2007 1.6
Aug-2007 1.6
Sep-2007 1.6
Oct-2007 1.7
Nov-2007 1.7
Dec-2007 1.8
Jan-2008 1.8
Feb-2008 1.9
Mar-2008 1.9
Apr-2008 2.0
May-2008 2.1
Jun-2008 2.3
Jul-2008 2.4
Aug-2008 2.6
Sep-2008 3.0
Oct-2008 3.1
Nov-2008 3.4
Dec-2008 3.7
Jan-2009 4.4
Feb-2009 4.6
Mar-2009 5.4
Apr-2009 6.1
May-2009 6.0
Jun-2009 6.2
Jul-2009 6.8
Aug-2009 6.5
Sep-2009 6.2
Oct-2009 6.5
Nov-2009 6.3
Dec-2009 6.1
Jan-2010 5.6
Feb-2010 5.9
Mar-2010 5.7
Apr-2010 4.9
May-2010 5.1
Jun-2010 5.3
Jul-2010 5.0
Aug-2010 5.1
Sep-2010 5.2
Oct-2010 4.8
Nov-2010 4.9
Dec-2010 4.9
Jan-2011 4.8
Feb-2011 4.5
Mar-2011 4.4
Apr-2011 4.5
May-2011 4.6
Jun-2011 4.4
Jul-2011 4.0
Aug-2011 4.4
Sep-2011 3.9
Oct-2011 4.0
Nov-2011 4.1
Dec-2011 3.7
Jan-2012 3.5
Feb-2012 3.6
Mar-2012 3.3
Apr-2012 3.5
May-2012 3.4
Jun-2012 3.4
Jul-2012 3.5
Aug-2012 3.4
Sep-2012 3.3
Oct-2012 3.3
Nov-2012 3.2
Dec-2012 3.4
Jan-2013 3.3
Feb-2013 3.0
Mar-2013 3.0
Apr-2013 3.1
May-2013 3.0
Jun-2013 3.0
Jul-2013 3.0
Aug-2013 2.9
Sep-2013 2.8
Oct-2013 2.7
Nov-2013 2.7
Dec-2013 2.6
Jan-2014 2.6
Feb-2014 2.5
Mar-2014 2.5
Apr-2014 2.2
May-2014 2.1
Jun-2014 2.0
Jul-2014 2.0
Aug-2014 1.9
Sep-2014 2.0
Oct-2014 1.9
Nov-2014 1.9
Dec-2014 1.8
Jan-2015 1.8

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

While there has been a clear improvement, it is important to remember that a job opening when the labor market is weak often does not mean the same thing as a job opening when the labor market is strong. There is a wide range of “recruitment intensity” with which a company can deal with a job opening. If a firm is trying hard to fill an opening, it may increase the compensation package and/or scale back the required qualifications. On the other hand, if it is not trying very hard, it might hike up the required qualifications and/or offer a meager compensation package. Perhaps unsurprisingly, research shows that recruitment intensity is cyclical—it tends to be stronger when the labor market is strong, and weaker when the labor market is weak. This means that when a job opening goes unfilled when the labor market is weak, as it is today, companies may very well be holding out for an overly-qualified candidate at a cheap price.