Below, EPI economists offer their initial insights on the jobs report released this morning, which showed 263,000 jobs added in September.

From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):

Read the full Twitter thread here. 

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, back to where it was in July, mostly for the “wrong” reasons as labor force participation declined. Two-thirds of the decline in the unemployment rate was due to the drop in the labor force and one-third from increased employment. pic.twitter.com/snor6FSdKK

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) October 7, 2022

The private sector keeps chugging along while the public sector is faltering. With the September increase, private sector employment is now 0.9% above pre-pandemic levels while state and local jobs remain stubbornly 3.0% below its Feb 2020 level with little recent improvement. pic.twitter.com/txEIaCI29i

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) October 7, 2022

After a troubling rise last month in Black unemployment accompanied by falling labor force and employment the last three months, Black unemployment fell back to 5.8% alongside increasing employment and participation.

Note: volatile series but hopefully a reversal in trend. pic.twitter.com/r1rsTAvWHq

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) October 7, 2022

The fall in Black unemployment and rise in participation in September was experienced by both Black men and Black women. Again, huge disclaimer on data volatility for smaller demographic groups. pic.twitter.com/8Ol83CHmwt

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) October 7, 2022

From EPI president, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):

Read the full Twitter thread here. 

The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% in September, but mostly *not* for good reasons—the share of the working age population with a job held steady, while labor force participation dropped. (Though make no mistake, 3.5% unemployment is extremely low.) 2/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022

We’re clearly starting to see the effects of the Fed’s rate hikes, but the labor market is still extremely strong. However, it takes a while for higher interest rates to have a big impact and there’s a huge concern the Fed has overshot and secured a recession in coming months. 4/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022

One thing: there is still a giant gap in state and local govt jobs—they are down 600,000 since Feb ‘20, with over half of that, 317,000, in education. It’s crucial that state and local govts use their ARPA funds to raise pay and refill those jobs. 6/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022

The overall numbers mask big disparities for different groups. Due to the impact of structural racism on the labor market, people of color have much higher unemp rates than white workers. For example, the unemp rate is currently 5.8% for Black workers, 3.1% for white workers. 8/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022

And that’s because, unlike with the Great Recession, Congress did what was needed to spur a robust recovery this time around (namely, CARES and ARPA). And no, those relief and recovery packages are not to blame for inflation. 10/ https://t.co/80YTugXRdp

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022

Excellent thread on today’s jobs numbers https://t.co/R7pzfACYUG

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) October 7, 2022