Groups of working conditions examined
| Factor | Name of metric | Indicator associated | Notes | Curve affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct metric | ||||
| Teachers needed (net) | Shortage |
Unfilled vacancies Number of emergency certificates issued[1] Perceptions of shortages by district superintendents or human resource directors[2] Hiring and personnel management X-year projections of teacher supply and demand that inform planning for future workforce needs [Based on trends and forecasts for a number of factors.] |
A teacher shortage occurs when demand is greater than supply, which can be the result of either increases in demand or decreases in supply or of both simultaneously (Guarino et al. 2006). The imbalance between teacher supply and teacher demand in the school year 2015-2016 is of about 64,000 teachers needed. The projected trends for teacher demand and supply indicate that the demand in 2018 and onwards will exceed supply by about 112,000 teacher vacancies (around 300,000 teachers demanded per year and about 190,000 teachers supplying their job) (Sutcher et al. 2016) | Imbalance between supply and demand |
| Indirect metrics: Staffing schools | ||||
| Recruiting | Teacher preparation enrollments, production and recruitment of new teaching candidates |
Number/share of newly certified teachers Number of preparation program enrollees/completers in preparation programs [Percentage change over time in the number of enrollees/completers] Degrees conferred in education [Percentage change over time in the number of degrees conferred in education] Number of applicants (per vacancy)[3] Share of applicants who are new to the profession Preparation and costs to entry, and change in costs over time Induction and support for new teachers |
Supply of new teachers has been atypically low in recent years.
Enrollment in teacher education programs had decreased significantly. In 2014, there were about 240,000 fewer new professionals relative to 2009, and re-entrants (those who have stepped out of teaching, who make up one-third to one-half of each year’s supply) were not attracted by policies that make teaching an attractive and accessible possibility (Sutcher et al. 2016). |
Supply |
| Retaining | Teacher attrition: turnover, retention and voluntary attrition |
Number/share of teachers leaving the profession Number/share of teachers moving to another school, Number/share of projected retirees Share of teachers retiring Qualifications of teachers who stay, move or quit Number/share of qualified teachers [Percentage change over time in the share of qualified teachers] |
Attrition is sometimes called the “leaky bucket and revolving door” (Ingersoll 2004). High teacher attrition is seen as the single largest problem in explaining shortages in teacher labor markets.[4] Out of the 250-260,000 new teachers needed each year between 2013-2017, pre-retirement attrition and voluntary turnover are responsible for the largest share (about 160-170,000 teachers needed to replace them); retirement is responsible for about 60-75,000 teachers needed.[4] It is argued that reducing attrition “by half could virtually eliminate shortages” (Sutcher et al 2016). This target would also situate the U.S. rate at the attrition level of other countries (Darling-Hammond et al 2017). |
Supply |
| Hiring | Replacing teachers who moved or quit, efforts made by districts to return to pre-recession pupil-teacher ratios, increasing student enrollment, or creating new posts |
Number of vacancies (per applicant) Share of schools reporting vacancies Share of newly hired teachers (as a proportion of total teachers) Share of newly hired teachers in their first year of teaching Share of filled/unfilled vacancies Difficulty in hiring Pupil-teacher ratios (projected) Change over time in student enrollment (projected) |
Affected by changes in enrollment, regulation, teacher supply, and working conditions offered, etc. Working conditions: school leadership, professional collaboration and shared decision-making, accountability systems, and resources for teaching and learning, school climate (Podolsky et al. 2016; Loeb, Darling-Hammond, & Luczak 2005; Ingersoll 2001, Moore-Johnson et al. 2012) |
Demand |
| Indirect metrics: Offering attractive conditions (wages, additional compensation, and working conditions) | ||||
| Attracting | Institutional characteristics and reforms |
Pupil-teacher ratios Salaries, pensions and other compensation Working conditions–including school climate, vocation for teaching, willingness to move to a higher paying job Preparation and costs to entry Induction and support for new teachers Change over time in student enrollment (projected) Change over time in expenditures by function Change over time in share accounted for salaries and benefits in total expenditures Share accounted for salaries and benefits by function in expenditures of function |
Affected by changes in enrollment, regulation, etc. Quoting Ingersoll: Schools could attract teachers better by “increasing support for teachers, raising salaries, reducing student misbehavior, and giving faculty members more say in school decision-making” (Education Week 2002) |
External (demand, supply) |
[1] Certificates are issued after having diagnosed there is a shortage (shortage, demand, equilibrium)
[2] Other things constant, affected by subjectivity and expectations, which may vary as a function of true shortages or others.
[3] Number of vacancies and number of applicants per vacancy are susceptible to changes in either demand, supply, and/or external.
[4] More broadly, Sutcher et al. (2016) argue that the key questions to address shortages reside in finding why people are leaving the profession, who is leaving the profession, and what factors are associated with different rates of attrition.
Note: not all the metrics offer a break-down to examine quality and/or equity. For the report, those that do offer those views (with minor exceptions).
Sources: Behrstock-Sherratt (2016), references in the table, and own elaboration.
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