Josh 4
Pandemic distortions on both demand and supply-side spark inflation: Global supply chain pressure index and change in durable goods share, 1998–2022
| Quarter | Global supply chain pressure index (supply dysfunction) | Durable goods share (demand spike) |
|---|---|---|
| 1998Q1 | -0.47 | -0.12 |
| 1998Q2 | -0.48 | 0.40 |
| 1998Q3 | -0.93 | 0.26 |
| 1998Q4 | -0.65 | 0.47 |
| 1999Q1 | -0.24 | 0.39 |
| 1999Q2 | -0.38 | 0.40 |
| 1999Q3 | -0.48 | 0.39 |
| 1999Q4 | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| 2000Q1 | -0.30 | 0.50 |
| 2000Q2 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| 2000Q3 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| 2000Q4 | -0.91 | -0.08 |
| 2001Q1 | -1.02 | -0.36 |
| 2001Q2 | -1.08 | -0.13 |
| 2001Q3 | -0.73 | -0.12 |
| 2001Q4 | -1.12 | 0.57 |
| 2002Q1 | -0.62 | 0.20 |
| 2002Q2 | -0.41 | 0.30 |
| 2002Q3 | -0.87 | 0.40 |
| 2002Q4 | -0.78 | -0.43 |
| 2003Q1 | -0.35 | -0.33 |
| 2003Q2 | -0.27 | -0.07 |
| 2003Q3 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| 2003Q4 | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| 2004Q1 | -0.14 | 0.20 |
| 2004Q2 | 0.56 | -0.11 |
| 2004Q3 | 0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2004Q4 | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| 2005Q1 | -0.20 | -0.23 |
| 2005Q2 | -1.15 | 0.00 |
| 2005Q3 | -0.62 | -0.05 |
| 2005Q4 | -0.50 | -0.47 |
| 2006Q1 | -0.54 | -0.21 |
| 2006Q2 | 0.08 | -0.45 |
| 2006Q3 | -0.19 | -0.40 |
| 2006Q4 | -0.35 | -0.04 |
| 2007Q1 | -0.69 | -0.19 |
| 2007Q2 | -0.46 | -0.12 |
| 2007Q3 | -0.16 | -0.18 |
| 2007Q4 | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| 2008Q1 | 0.11 | -0.45 |
| 2008Q2 | 0.14 | -0.58 |
| 2008Q3 | 0.25 | -0.83 |
| 2008Q4 | -1.05 | -1.22 |
| 2009Q1 | -0.37 | -0.88 |
| 2009Q2 | 0.03 | -0.74 |
| 2009Q3 | -0.84 | -0.19 |
| 2009Q4 | -0.56 | 0.02 |
| 2010Q1 | 0.05 | -0.04 |
| 2010Q2 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| 2010Q3 | 0.35 | -0.21 |
| 2010Q4 | 0.64 | 0.12 |
| 2011Q1 | 0.68 | 0.17 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.97 | -0.01 |
| 2011Q3 | -0.08 | 0.02 |
| 2011Q4 | -0.09 | -0.02 |
| 2012Q1 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
| 2012Q2 | -0.53 | 0.03 |
| 2012Q3 | -0.30 | 0.02 |
| 2012Q4 | -0.12 | 0.06 |
| 2013Q1 | -0.33 | 0.07 |
| 2013Q2 | -0.72 | 0.10 |
| 2013Q3 | -0.47 | 0.03 |
| 2013Q4 | -0.40 | -0.11 |
| 2014Q1 | -0.48 | -0.13 |
| 2014Q2 | -0.72 | 0.00 |
| 2014Q3 | -0.72 | 0.05 |
| 2014Q4 | -0.63 | 0.14 |
| 2015Q1 | -0.41 | 0.12 |
| 2015Q2 | -0.52 | 0.10 |
| 2015Q3 | -0.48 | 0.13 |
| 2015Q4 | -0.47 | 0.08 |
| 2016Q1 | -0.68 | 0.08 |
| 2016Q2 | -0.38 | -0.02 |
| 2016Q3 | -0.10 | 0.01 |
| 2016Q4 | -0.19 | -0.01 |
| 2017Q1 | 0.21 | -0.06 |
| 2017Q2 | 0.06 | -0.05 |
| 2017Q3 | 0.42 | -0.07 |
| 2017Q4 | 0.83 | 0.07 |
| 2018Q1 | 0.42 | 0.04 |
| 2018Q2 | 0.49 | 0.05 |
| 2018Q3 | 0.51 | 0.01 |
| 2018Q4 | 0.50 | -0.15 |
| 2019Q1 | 0.31 | -0.18 |
| 2019Q2 | -0.36 | -0.09 |
| 2019Q3 | -0.20 | -0.03 |
| 2019Q4 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| 2020Q1 | 1.32 | -0.10 |
| 2020Q2 | 2.94 | 0.45 |
| 2020Q3 | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| 2020Q4 | 0.87 | 1.10 |
| 2021Q1 | 1.91 | 1.97 |
| 2021Q2 | 2.77 | 1.66 |
| 2021Q3 | 3.28 | 0.30 |
| 2021Q4 | 4.25 | 0.39 |
| 2022Q1 | 3.11 | -0.16 |
Source: Data on durable goods consumption as a share of overall GDP from Table 1.1.5 from the BEA NIPAs. Index of global supply chain pressure calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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