Nominal GDP (Demand, kind of) and Potential Output (Supply, kind of) relative to CBO pre-pandemic forecasts
| Potential output | Nominal GDP | Projected Potential ouput | Projected Nominal GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019Q4 | 100.0% | 100.0% | ||
| 2020Q1 | 99.5% | 97.7% | ||
| 2020Q2 | 97.4% | 87.7% | ||
| 2020Q3 | 95.4% | 94.1% | ||
| 2020Q4 | 96.5% | 94.6% | ||
| 2021Q1 | 96.4% | 96.1% | ||
| 2021Q2 | 97.1% | 98.3% | ||
| 2021Q3 | 97.1% | 99.3% | ||
| 2021Q4 | 99.2% | 101.8% | ||
| 2022Q1 | 99.8% | 102.4% | 99.8% | 102.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 100.6% | 103.0% |
Source: Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) from Table 1.1.5 from the BEA NIPAs.
Forecasted nominal GDP and forecasted potential output taken from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Budget and Economic Outlook from January 2020. Real-time potential output is estimated by taking difference between forecasted measures of labor force participation and trend measures of capital services and total factor productivity (TFP) growth and actual measures since 2019.
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