Figure X

Federal Debt Given Different Rates of Labor Force Participation, Productivity Growth, Federal Borrowing, and Excess Cost Growth for Federal Spending on Medicare and Medicaid: Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, 2000—2048

 Year Extended baseline Given a lower rate of excess cost growth for federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid Given a higher rate of excess cost growth for federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid 
2000 34
2001 31
2002 33
2003 35
2004 36
2005 36
2006 35
2007 35
2008 39
2009 52
2010 61
2011 66
2012 70
2013 73
2014 74
2015 73
2016 77
2017 76
2018 78 78 78
2019 79 79 79
2020 81 81 81
2021 83 83 83
2022 86 85 86
2023 88 87 89
2024 90 88 91
2025 91 90 93
2026 93 91 95
2027 94 92 97
2028 96 93 100
2029 97 93 102
2030 99 94 104
2031 101 95 107
2032 103 96 111
2033 105 97 114
2034 107 98 118
2035 110 99 122
2036 112 100 126
2037 115 101 131
2038 118 102 136
2039 121 103 141
2040 124 104 147
2041 127 105 153
2042 130 106 159
2043 133 107 166
2044 137 107 173
2045 140 108 181
2046 144 109 189
2047 148 109 197
2048 152 110 206
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Notes: The alternative projections of rates of excess cost growth begin in 2019. Through 2048, the higher rate of excess cost growth is 1.0 percentage point higher, and the lower rate is 1.0 percentage point lower, than the rate used for each year in the extended baseline.

Source: EPI analysis of the Congressional Budget Office's June 2018 report, The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

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