Figure X
Federal Debt Given Different Rates of Labor Force Participation, Productivity Growth, Federal Borrowing, and Excess Cost Growth for Federal Spending on Medicare and Medicaid: Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, 2000—2048
Year | Extended baseline | Given a lower rate of excess cost growth for federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid | Given a higher rate of excess cost growth for federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid |
---|---|---|---|
2000 | 34 | ||
2001 | 31 | ||
2002 | 33 | ||
2003 | 35 | ||
2004 | 36 | ||
2005 | 36 | ||
2006 | 35 | ||
2007 | 35 | ||
2008 | 39 | ||
2009 | 52 | ||
2010 | 61 | ||
2011 | 66 | ||
2012 | 70 | ||
2013 | 73 | ||
2014 | 74 | ||
2015 | 73 | ||
2016 | 77 | ||
2017 | 76 | ||
2018 | 78 | 78 | 78 |
2019 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
2020 | 81 | 81 | 81 |
2021 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
2022 | 86 | 85 | 86 |
2023 | 88 | 87 | 89 |
2024 | 90 | 88 | 91 |
2025 | 91 | 90 | 93 |
2026 | 93 | 91 | 95 |
2027 | 94 | 92 | 97 |
2028 | 96 | 93 | 100 |
2029 | 97 | 93 | 102 |
2030 | 99 | 94 | 104 |
2031 | 101 | 95 | 107 |
2032 | 103 | 96 | 111 |
2033 | 105 | 97 | 114 |
2034 | 107 | 98 | 118 |
2035 | 110 | 99 | 122 |
2036 | 112 | 100 | 126 |
2037 | 115 | 101 | 131 |
2038 | 118 | 102 | 136 |
2039 | 121 | 103 | 141 |
2040 | 124 | 104 | 147 |
2041 | 127 | 105 | 153 |
2042 | 130 | 106 | 159 |
2043 | 133 | 107 | 166 |
2044 | 137 | 107 | 173 |
2045 | 140 | 108 | 181 |
2046 | 144 | 109 | 189 |
2047 | 148 | 109 | 197 |
2048 | 152 | 110 | 206 |
Notes: The alternative projections of rates of excess cost growth begin in 2019. Through 2048, the higher rate of excess cost growth is 1.0 percentage point higher, and the lower rate is 1.0 percentage point lower, than the rate used for each year in the extended baseline.
Source: EPI analysis of the Congressional Budget Office's June 2018 report, The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook.
Previous chart: « CEO realized direct compensation (in millions of 2016 dollars), 1965–2016