Source: Author's analysis of Current Population Survey public data series and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Experience of the Population. The 2013 unemployment rate is the average of the Jan. 2013-Nov. 2013 monthly unemployment rates, and the 2014 unemployment rate is a forecast from Moody’s Economy.com.  The over-the-year unemployment rates in 2013 and 2014 are the projected unemployment rates times the ratio of the over-the-year unemployment rate to the average monthly unemployment rate in 2012.