Table 2
Change in union density, 2015–2026, under various scenarios
| Employment in newly organized units (000) | Project union density (number covered and percent) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NLRB/NMB over ten-years | Optimistic* baseline | Pessimistic** baseline | |
| A. Status Quo | |||
| Maintain rate of organizing of 2000-07 (77k/yr) | |||
| Levels of organizing needed | 835 | 8,301 | 7,308 |
| Density (%) | 6.7% | 5.9% | |
| Change in level | (137) | (1,130) | |
| Change in density | -0.7% | -1.5% | |
| B. Targeted Density Goals | |||
| Maintain density @7.3% | |||
| Levels of organizing needed (2007-17 baseline) | 1,651 | 9,118 | 9,118 |
| Levels of organizing needed (2000-17 baseline) | 2,645 | ||
| Density (%) | 7.3% | 7.3% | |
| Change in level | 680 | 680 | |
| Change in density | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Increase density by half to 11.0% | |||
| Levels of organizing needed (2007-17 baseline) | 6,258 | 13,724 | 13,724 |
| Levels of organizing needed (2000-17 baseline) | 7,251 | ||
| Density (%) | 11.0% | 11.0% | |
| Change in level | 5,286 | 5,286 | |
| Change in density | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| C. Targeting Historic Organizing Scale | |||
| Organize at (NLRB/NMB) rate of 1965-72 (250k/yr), scaled to future employment | |||
| Levels of organizing needed | 5,453 | 12,919 | 11,926 |
| Density (%) | 10.4% | 9.6% | |
| Change in level | 4,481 | 3,488 | |
| Change in density | 3.0% | 2.3% | |
| Organize at (NLRB/NMB) rate of 1973-80 (188k/yr), scaled to future employment | |||
| Levels of organizing needed | 3,402 | 10,869 | 9,876 |
| Density (%) | 8.7% | 7.9% | |
| Change in level | 2,431 | 1,438 | |
| Change in density | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
Source: EPI analysis of NLRB, NMB, BLS data
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