Figure B
National health spending grows faster than the economy, leading to rising health costs as a share of GDP: Annual growth in potential gross domestic product (GDP) and national health spending per capita, and national health spending as a share of GDP, 1963–2016
| Health spending per capita, annual growth rate | Potential GDP per capita, annual growth rate | Health spending as a share of potential GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1963 | 6.6630% | 3.6753% | 5.2100% |
| 1964 | 8.1860% | 4.1030% | 5.4148% |
| 1965 | 8.1550% | 4.4119% | 5.6083% |
| 1966 | 8.7561% | 5.3061% | 5.7904% |
| 1967 | 9.0819% | 5.9913% | 5.9596% |
| 1968 | 10.6157% | 7.1631% | 6.1522% |
| 1969 | 11.5567% | 7.8402% | 6.3638% |
| 1970 | 11.9869% | 8.2077% | 6.5862% |
| 1971 | 11.0592% | 7.6787% | 6.7924% |
| 1972 | 10.8231% | 6.9372% | 7.0395% |
| 1973 | 10.0730% | 6.8901% | 7.2487% |
| 1974 | 11.2432% | 8.8411% | 7.4081% |
| 1975 | 12.0202% | 10.8218% | 7.4887% |
| 1976 | 13.2363% | 10.8772% | 7.6519% |
| 1977 | 13.2562% | 9.6124% | 7.9098% |
| 1978 | 12.5668% | 8.7754% | 8.1821% |
| 1979 | 12.1997% | 9.7512% | 8.3633% |
| 1980 | 12.6633% | 10.4858% | 8.5286% |
| 1981 | 13.7348% | 10.7466% | 8.7601% |
| 1982 | 13.5286% | 9.9516% | 9.0449% |
| 1983 | 11.8397% | 8.5082% | 9.3209% |
| 1984 | 10.0617% | 7.0991% | 9.5783% |
| 1985 | 8.7952% | 6.1881% | 9.8131% |
| 1986 | 7.8322% | 5.6611% | 10.0133% |
| 1987 | 7.4082% | 5.2874% | 10.2151% |
| 1988 | 8.4922% | 5.3897% | 10.5176% |
| 1989 | 9.7172% | 5.7079% | 10.9173% |
| 1990 | 10.5963% | 5.8368% | 11.4079% |
| 1991 | 9.5018% | 5.4317% | 11.8465% |
| 1992 | 8.5510% | 4.6792% | 12.2820% |
| 1993 | 7.0628% | 4.0980% | 12.6307% |
| 1994 | 5.8493% | 3.7034% | 12.8890% |
| 1995 | 5.0867% | 3.8628% | 13.0398% |
| 1996 | 4.3902% | 3.8349% | 13.1094% |
| 1997 | 4.4475% | 4.0035% | 13.1652% |
| 1998 | 4.4001% | 3.9734% | 13.2193% |
| 1999 | 4.9253% | 4.3937% | 13.2867% |
| 2000 | 5.4291% | 4.8084% | 13.3654% |
| 2001 | 6.3346% | 5.0957% | 13.5235% |
| 2002 | 7.4139% | 4.6979% | 13.8788% |
| 2003 | 7.8801% | 4.0745% | 14.3885% |
| 2004 | 7.4597% | 3.8726% | 14.8797% |
| 2005 | 6.5299% | 4.2965% | 15.1954% |
| 2006 | 5.8841% | 4.5144% | 15.3942% |
| 2007 | 5.6311% | 4.2787% | 15.5946% |
| 2008 | 4.7853% | 3.5169% | 15.7850% |
| 2009 | 4.0717% | 2.6437% | 16.0044% |
| 2010 | 3.3192% | 1.8707% | 16.2332% |
| 2011 | 3.0945% | 1.7810% | 16.4419% |
| 2012 | 3.1002% | 2.0850% | 16.6051% |
| 2013 | 2.7039% | 2.3707% | 16.6588% |
| 2014 | 3.2489% | 2.4439% | 16.7893% |
| 2015 | 3.8346% | 2.3154% | 17.0397% |
| 2016 | 4.3914% | 2.3941% | 17.3713% |
Notes: Potential GDP is a measure of what GDP could be as long as the economy did not suffer from excess unemployment. The difference between the growth rate of potential GDP per capita and health spending per capita is often described as “excess cost growth” in health care. Potential GDP is used to measure excess health care cost growth so that it is not infected by economic recessions and booms.
Sources: Data on potential GDP are from the Congressional Budget Office 2018a. Data on national health spending are from the National Health Expenditure (NHE) Accounts from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Studies (CMS) 2018.
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