Bubble paper
Too low for too long?: Actual interest rates and those implied by "neutral" Taylor rules with equal weights on inflation and unemployment deviations between 2000 and 2006
| Actual | Neutral Taylor, omniscent | Neutral Taylor, real-time data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-2000 | 6.000% | 7.590% | 6.010% |
| Apr-2000 | 6.500% | 7.840% | 5.830% |
| Jul-2000 | 6.500% | 7.740% | 5.330% |
| Oct-2000 | 6.500% | 7.390% | 4.800% |
| Jan-2001 | 5.000% | 6.900% | 4.080% |
| Apr-2001 | 3.750% | 6.550% | 3.410% |
| Jul-2001 | 2.500% | 4.990% | 2.690% |
| Oct-2001 | 1.750% | 3.400% | 2.130% |
| Jan-2002 | 1.750% | 2.300% | 3.550% |
| Apr-2002 | 1.750% | 2.400% | 3.920% |
| Jul-2002 | 1.750% | 2.620% | 3.530% |
| Oct-2002 | 1.250% | 3.510% | 3.130% |
| Jan-2003 | 1.250% | 4.330% | 2.630% |
| Apr-2003 | 1.000% | 2.860% | 1.680% |
| Jul-2003 | 1.000% | 3.640% | 1.880% |
| Oct-2003 | 1.000% | 3.460% | 2.150% |
| Jan-2004 | 1.000% | 3.230% | 2.610% |
| Apr-2004 | 1.250% | 4.650% | 3.220% |
| Jul-2004 | 1.750% | 4.620% | 2.660% |
| Oct-2004 | 2.250% | 5.860% | 2.870% |
| Jan-2005 | 2.500% | 5.560% | 3.210% |
| Apr-2005 | 3.250% | 5.260% | 4.530% |
| Jul-2005 | 3.750% | 6.590% | 4.605% |
| Oct-2005 | 4.250% | 6.750% | 4.680% |
Source: Reproduced using data from Bernanke (2010)
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