Figure B

Sharp drop in demand caused recession and demand has yet to recover: Actual and potential gross domestic product (GDP), 2001–2015

Date Potential GDP Actual GDP
2001Q1 12589.7 12643.3
2001Q2 12706.0 12710.3
2001Q3 12821.9 12670.1
2001Q4 12936.2 12705.3
2002Q1 13044.8 12822.3
2002Q2 13151.1 12893.0
2002Q3 13254.8 12955.8
2002Q4 13355.7 12964.0
2003Q1 13454.0 13031.2
2003Q2 13548.7 13152.1
2003Q3 13640.7 13372.4
2003Q4 13730.3 13528.7
2004Q1 13817.2 13606.5
2004Q2 13901.3 13706.2
2004Q3 13984.1 13830.8
2004Q4 14066.4 13950.4
2005Q1 14149.5 14099.1
2005Q2 14234.0 14172.7
2005Q3 14319.0 14291.8
2005Q4 14404.6 14373.4
2006Q1 14491.8 14546.1
2006Q2 14580.7 14589.6
2006Q3 14669.2 14602.6
2006Q4 14756.5 14716.9
2007Q1 14840.9 14726.0
2007Q2 14922.2 14838.7
2007Q3 15000.7 14938.5
2007Q4 15075.9 14991.8
2008Q1 15146.4 14889.5
2008Q2 15214.8 14963.4
2008Q3 15279.7 14891.6
2008Q4 15340.8 14577.0
2009Q1 15398.6 14375.0
2009Q2 15449.3 14355.6
2009Q3 15496.2 14402.5
2009Q4 15539.8 14541.9
2010Q1 15579.5 14604.8
2010Q2 15618.0 14745.9
2010Q3 15655.5 14845.5
2010Q4 15692.9 14939.0
2011Q1 15733.5 14881.3
2011Q2 15772.6 14989.6
2011Q3 15812.7 15021.1
2011Q4 15854.5 15190.3
2012Q1 15897.9 15291.0
2012Q2 15946.0 15362.4
2012Q3 15997.3 15380.8
2012Q4 16051.8 15384.3
2013Q1 16111.6 15457.2
2013Q2 16174.8 15500.2
2013Q3 16239.7 15614.4
2013Q4 16305.6 15761.5
2014Q1 16369.9 15724.9
2014Q2 16433.5 15901.5
2014Q3 16496.9 16068.8
2014Q4 16560.0 16151.4
2015Q1 16622.4 16177.3
2015Q2 16684.3 16333.6
2015Q3 16746.4 16414.0
2015Q4 16809.3  16455.1
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Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Table 1.1.6 and the Congressional Budget Office (on potential gross domestic product)

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