Table 5

Impact on Ohio state and local budgets of ending currency manipulation, 2014*

Low impact** High impact**
State and local revenues (millions of 2010 dollars)
Dividends $2.42 $5.09
Social insurance tax: employee contribution 5.43 11.44
Social insurance tax: employer contribution 12.58 26.50
Indirect business tax: sales tax 197.22 415.27
Indirect business tax: property tax 194.52 409.60
Indirect business tax: motor vehicle licenses 5.36 11.28
Indirect business tax: severance tax 0.08 0.16
Indirect business tax: other taxes 31.29 65.89
Indirect business tax: state and local non-taxes (fines, fees) 21.91 46.14
Corporate profits tax 15.44 32.53
Personal tax: income tax 134.19 282.59
Personal tax: non-taxes (fines, fees) 16.93 35.65
Personal tax: motor vehicle license 7.53 15.85
Personal tax: property taxes 2.88 6.06
Personal tax: other tax (fishing/hunting) 2.03 4.28
Total (millions of 2010 dollars) $649.81 $1,368.35
Estimated state and local spending reduction
Increase in Ohio GDP (billions of 2010 dollars) $8.26 $17.41
Fiscal multiplier (dollar decline in state spending per dollar increase in Ohio state GDP)*** 13.19% 13.19%
Estimated budget savings (billions of 2010 dollars)**** $1.09 $2.30
Total fiscal impact (increased revenues plus spending reductions) (billions of 2010 dollars) $1.74 $3.66

* Impact in 2014, modeled here assuming that changes started in 2011, compared with baseline of no policy change
** The IMPLAN model used to calculate real-world effects of an estimated $190.5 billion (low impact) to $399.5 billion (high impact) increase in net exports adjusts for the fact that GDP growth from direct stimulus to net exports would boost consumer spending on imports, slightly offsetting the growth in exports. (See methodological appendix for further details on the IMPLAN model.)
*** Based on econometric estimates of the cyclicality of total state expenditures for Ohio and the other 49 states (Kondo and Svec 2009, Appendix Table A1)
**** From reductions in net program spending in areas such as unemployment compensation, Medicaid, and welfare

Source: Authors' analysis of trade data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (2012), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2012a; 2012b), Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Employment Projections (2011), Kondo and Svec (2009), and IMPLAN model (MIG Inc. 2012)

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