Figure E

Change in average real family income of the middle fifth, actual and predicted, 2000–2018

* Path of income growth projected by a model based on the relationship between income growth and the unemployment rate from 1948 to 2010. The top line uses unemployment projections from Moody's Analytics, while the bottom line uses Congressional Budget Office forecasts.

Note: Data are for money income.

Source: Authors' analysis of Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Historical Income Tables (Table F-2, F-3, and F-5) and analysis based on forecasted unemployment rates from Congressional Budget Office (2012b) and Moody's Analytics (2012). Adapted from Mishel et al. (2012), Figure 1E.

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