Table 2

High rates of return estimated by Heintz (2010), confirmed: Error correction model of determinants of US private-sector productivity, various time periods

Variables 1949–2015 1949–2007 1959–2015 1979–2015
Levels (potential cointegrating relationships)
Output-to-capital ratio, lagged −0.202 −0.221 −0.207 −0.272
[3.14]*** [2.97]*** [2.61]** [3.91]***
Private capital stock, lagged −0.46 −0.536 −0.549 −0.257
[4.46]*** [4.21]*** [3.82]*** [2.26]**
Labor force, lagged 0.407 0.394 0.391 0.411
[5.81]*** [5.10]*** [4.49]*** [5.82]***
Public capital stock, lagged 0.147 0.16 0.204 0.092
[3.95]*** [3.83]*** [3.27]*** [0.82]
First differences −1.165 −1.163 −1.19 −0.864
Private capital stock [6.60]*** [5.94]*** [5.00]*** [4.24]***
0.857 0.835 0.829 0.785
Labor force [19.03]*** [16.48]*** [13.57]*** [14.47]***
0.546 0.351 0.518 0.032
Public capital stock [3.72]*** [1.83]* [1.94]* [0.12]
0.004 0.006 0.005
Time trend yes yes yes yes
R-squared, adj. 0.9 0.88 0.86 0.91
N 66 57 56 36

Notes: The dependent variable is the change in private-sector productivity, measured as the ratio of private-sector output to private-sector capital stock. Data and methods are discussed in the technical appendix. T-statistics are in brackets. Three asterisks denote significance at the 1 percent level, two asterisks denote significance at the 5 percent level, and one asterisk denotes significance at the 10 percent level.

Source: Author’s analysis of data the from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Fixed Assets data series, BEA National Income and Product Accounts, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

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