Below, EPI economists offer their initial insights on the jobs report released this morning, and it was a tale of two conflicting employment surveys. The payroll survey—a survey of employers—showed 263,000 jobs added in November, but the household survey showed a decline in employment.

From EPI senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):

Read the full Twitter thread here. 

When the two surveys conflict it may indicate a turning point in the business cycle. The unemployment rate is holding steady—solidly below 4%—but participation has declined for the last four months and employment has declined for the last three, according to the household survey. pic.twitter.com/bRYWksfF8n

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 2, 2022

Notable gains in the payroll survey for November were in leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and government employment. Notable declines (continue) in retail trade, somewhat surprising this time of the year. pic.twitter.com/xsH5Fio0kZ

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 2, 2022

Public sector employment—notably at the state and local level—has seen very slow progress over the last year and for much of the recovery. Private-sector jobs bounced back heartily from fiscal support, but state and local continues to trail, still 2.3% below pre-pandemic levels. pic.twitter.com/DjmleFegef

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) December 2, 2022

From EPI president, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz):

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In the household survey, on the other hand, employment dropped 138,000, and the 3-month average is -87,000 (and for you wonks: if you look at the series that adjusts the HH survey to match establishment survey concepts, the 3-month average is -167,000). 2/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 2, 2022

The household survey tends to pick up “inflection points” quicker than the establishment survey, for methodological reasons. So, it’s possible that the household survey is picking up a downturn that is not yet showing up in the establishment survey. Time will tell. 4/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 2, 2022

Remember, wage growth is from the establishment survey. 6/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 2, 2022

The overall numbers mask big disparities for different groups. Due to the impact of structural racism on the labor market, people of color have much higher unemp rates than white workers. For example, the unemp rate is currently 5.7% for Black workers, 3.2% for white workers. 10/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) December 2, 2022