EPI economists offer their initial insights on the June jobs report below. They see strong growth in employment, especially in leisure and hospitality—the numbers do not signal a big labor shortage. The economy appears to be on its way to a full recovery by the end of 2022.

From economist and director of EPI’s Program on Race, Ethnicity, and the Economy (@ValerieRWilson)

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The 850k jobs added in June reflects lifting of more COVID-19 restrictions in time for summer, no indication of labor shortage, and on pace to reach pre-COVID unemployment rate by end of 2022. 1/n

— Valerie R Wilson (@ValerieRWilson) July 2, 2021

Returning workers are earning more (as they should)–nominal hourly earnings of production non-supervisory workers are up 3.67% over this time last year. 2/n

— Valerie R Wilson (@ValerieRWilson) July 2, 2021

Even with the caveat of household survey volatility, black unemployment has improved less than for other groups. White, Hispanic and Asian rates are close to half of what they were last June, black rate down just 40% (9.2 vs. 15.3). pic.twitter.com/BLQNfspxE0

— Valerie R Wilson (@ValerieRWilson) July 2, 2021

From senior economist, Elise Gould (@eliselgould):

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Even with significant gains in June, leisure and hospitality remains 2.2 million jobs below pre-recession levels. Significant shortfalls still remain in education and health services as well as public sector employment (also primarily in educational services).
6/n pic.twitter.com/3gy2ZT0eCd

— Elise Gould (@eliselgould) July 2, 2021

From senior economist and director of policy, Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz)

Read the full Twitter thread here. 

Leisure and hospitality grew by 343,000 in June. Over the last three months, leisure & hospitality has added 977,000 jobs—well over half of the 1.7 million total jobs added over that period. Folks, these numbers are just not signaling a big labor shortage. 5/

— Heidi Shierholz (@hshierholz) July 2, 2021