Figure C
Lagging demand from Great Recession has also hurt economy's potential growth: Actual GDP and estimates of potential GDP, 2001–2016Q3
| Date | 2008 estimate of potential | 2017 estimate of potential | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001Q1 | 85.34537 | 86.53812 | 85.91008 |
| 2001Q2 | 86.06692 | 87.28146 | 86.36534 |
| 2001Q3 | 86.76844 | 87.99891 | 86.09218 |
| 2001Q4 | 87.44473 | 88.68842 | 86.33136 |
| 2002Q1 | 88.0923 | 89.33365 | 87.12636 |
| 2002Q2 | 88.7181 | 89.94686 | 87.60677 |
| 2002Q3 | 89.3265 | 90.53894 | 88.03349 |
| 2002Q4 | 89.92358 | 91.11671 | 88.0892 |
| 2003Q1 | 90.51718 | 91.69381 | 88.54582 |
| 2003Q2 | 91.1073 | 92.26136 | 89.36733 |
| 2003Q3 | 91.69742 | 92.82551 | 90.86424 |
| 2003Q4 | 92.29015 | 93.39034 | 91.92629 |
| 2004Q1 | 92.88723 | 93.96607 | 92.45493 |
| 2004Q2 | 93.49215 | 94.5602 | 93.13239 |
| 2004Q3 | 94.10577 | 95.15705 | 93.97903 |
| 2004Q4 | 94.72722 | 95.75322 | 94.7917 |
| 2005Q1 | 95.35912 | 96.34939 | 95.80211 |
| 2005Q2 | 96.00059 | 96.93534 | 96.30221 |
| 2005Q3 | 96.65077 | 97.50767 | 97.11148 |
| 2005Q4 | 97.30878 | 98.06227 | 97.66595 |
| 2006Q1 | 97.97288 | 98.58214 | 98.83943 |
| 2006Q2 | 98.64307 | 99.07134 | 99.13501 |
| 2006Q3 | 99.31849 | 99.54282 | 99.22334 |
| 2006Q4 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2007Q1 | 100.685 | 100.4476 | 100.0618 |
| 2007Q2 | 101.3761 | 100.8946 | 100.8276 |
| 2007Q3 | 102.0706 | 101.3347 | 101.5058 |
| 2007Q4 | 102.7696 | 101.7701 | 101.8679 |
| 2008Q1 | 103.4711 | 102.2089 | 101.1728 |
| 2008Q2 | 104.1735 | 102.6518 | 101.6749 |
| 2008Q3 | 104.8768 | 103.081 | 101.1871 |
| 2008Q4 | 105.5809 | 103.4898 | 99.04939 |
| 2009Q1 | 106.2842 | 103.8632 | 97.67682 |
| 2009Q2 | 106.9874 | 104.1814 | 97.545 |
| 2009Q3 | 107.6916 | 104.4709 | 97.86368 |
| 2009Q4 | 108.3966 | 104.738 | 98.81089 |
| 2010Q1 | 109.1025 | 104.9758 | 99.23829 |
| 2010Q2 | 109.8083 | 105.2075 | 100.1971 |
| 2010Q3 | 110.5168 | 105.4384 | 100.8738 |
| 2010Q4 | 111.2279 | 105.679 | 101.5091 |
| 2011Q1 | 111.9443 | 105.9597 | 101.1171 |
| 2011Q2 | 112.6675 | 106.256 | 101.853 |
| 2011Q3 | 113.3969 | 106.5681 | 102.067 |
| 2011Q4 | 114.1333 | 106.8958 | 103.2167 |
| 2012Q1 | 114.8766 | 107.2379 | 103.901 |
| 2012Q2 | 115.6251 | 107.599 | 104.3861 |
| 2012Q3 | 116.378 | 107.9757 | 104.5111 |
| 2012Q4 | 117.1335 | 108.3662 | 104.5349 |
| 2013Q1 | 117.889 | 108.7715 | 105.2661 |
| 2013Q2 | 118.6453 | 109.1865 | 105.4679 |
| 2013Q3 | 119.4008 | 109.6123 | 106.2812 |
| 2013Q4 | 120.1563 | 110.0463 | 107.3181 |
| 2014Q1 | 120.9118 | 110.4838 | 107.0715 |
| 2014Q2 | 121.6656 | 110.9328 | 108.2823 |
| 2014Q3 | 122.4193 | 111.3886 | 109.6664 |
| 2014Q4 | 123.1722 | 111.8498 | 110.2148 |
| 2015Q1 | 123.9259 | 112.3165 | 111.0968 |
| 2015Q2 | 124.6788 | 112.788 | 111.8503 |
| 2015Q3 | 125.4335 | 113.2609 | 112.3035 |
| 2015Q4 | 126.1898 | 113.7324 | 112.4394 |
| 2016Q1 | 126.9488 | 114.1977 | 112.6025 |
| 2016Q2 | 127.7104 | 114.6535 | 113.227 |
| 2016Q3 | 128.4754 | 115.108 | 114.0057 |
Note: Shaded areas denote recession. Measures of potential output are from the 2008 and 2017 editions of the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook.
Source: Author’s analysis of data from BEA NIPA Table 1.1.6 and the Congressional Budget Office (on gross domestic product)
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