Key takeaways:

• Misclassification of workers as independent contractors is a pervasive and widespread problem. AAPI workers are overrepresented in three of the 11 commonly misclassified occupations: manicurists and pedicurists, home health aides, and personal care aides. Vietnamese, Bangladeshi, Filipino, Samoan, and other Pacific Islander workers are overrepresented within these occupations.
• Groups with lower median hourly wages also have larger shares of their working populations in the 11 commonly misclassified occupations.
• Federal protections against misclassification are limited and currently under attack by the Trump administration. The state and local landscape for curbing misclassification is varied, which leaves some workers less protected than others.

In March, EPI published updated research highlighting the cost to workers of being misclassified as an independent contractor for 11 commonly misclassified occupations. Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) workers were overrepresented in three of those occupations—manicurists and pedicurists, home health aides, and personal care aides—relative to their share of the overall workforce.

Most federal, state, and local labor laws apply only to employees and not to independent contractors, so misclassification strips workers of key protections such as minimum wage laws or qualifying for employer-provided health insurance and retirement benefits. Additionally, both misclassified workers and social insurance funds lose out on income: the report conservatively estimates that for the three jobs in which AAPI workers are overrepresented, misclassification costs workers at least $7,000 annually and costs social insurance programs $600 to $800 per worker each year.

With the understanding that the umbrella term “AAPI” encompasses an immensely diverse population both in ethnic origin but also in economic outcomes, this piece goes beyond the narrow view that all AAPI workers are high-wage earners. Below, we provide more detail on which groups of AAPI workers are most likely to be employed in lower-wage commonly misclassified occupations.

Disaggregated data shed light on particular AAPI communities that may be vulnerable to misclassification

Across all occupations, AAPI workers comprise approximately 8% of the total workforce. For three of the 11 occupations highlighted in the report—manicurists and pedicurists, home health aides, and personal care aides—AAPI workers make up 67%, 13%, and 10% of employment, respectively, according to Current Population Survey (CPS) data.

Table 1 provides a detailed breakdown of the composition of the AAPI workforce for the three occupations in which AAPI workers are overrepresented. Here, we use the American Community Survey (ACS) as it offers detailed race definitions which the CPS does not offer due to sample size restrictions.

Asian Indian and Chinese populations combined make up over 40% of the working-age AAPI population, thus their relatively large shares of the AAPI workforce in these occupations are not surprising. However, several groups are disproportionately represented across these occupations compared with their share of the overall AAPI workforce.

For example, Bangladeshi workers make up 5.1% of AAPI workers employed as home health aides while only constituting 1.1% of the total AAPI workforce. Chinese workers represent almost half (47.7%) of AAPI home health aides while representing just over one-fifth of the overall AAPI workforce (20.9%). AAPI employment among manicurists and pedicurists is largely held by those of Vietnamese origin (71.4%).

Finally, a majority of AAPI personal care aides are either Filipino (32.8%) or Chinese (20.8%). Filipino workers, however, are overrepresented by twice their share of the overall workforce. While Samoans and other Pacific Islanders comprised a much smaller share of personal care aide employment, they are also overrepresented in this occupation by more than twice their share of the overall workforce.

Table 1

Figure A provides a more comprehensive picture of the share of each detailed group employed across all 11 commonly misclassified occupations, revealing that smaller communities—often overlooked because of their size relative to the aggregate AAPI workforce—may be among the most vulnerable to misclassification. Workers belonging to seven of those groups are more likely than the average U.S. worker to be employed in one of those occupations. Almost 20% of Vietnamese workers are employed in one of those occupations, with over half concentrated as manicurists and pedicurists.

Samoan, Hawaiian, and other Pacific Islanders have the next highest shares working in the 11 occupations, making up 15% or more of their total working-age population. These groups also earn lower median hourly wages than the national median and the aggregate AAPI median hourly wage. Their disproportionate representation in commonly misclassified occupations further exposes these workers to wage suppression due to misclassification.

Misclassification enforcement varies by state—meaning different AAPI populations can be disproportionately impacted

Federal protections from misclassification are limited and are currently under attack by the Trump administration, which has proposed a rule to weaken standards to determine worker classification under the Fair Labor Standards Act, the Family and Medical Leave Act, and the Migrant and Seasonal Agricultural Protection Act. The proposed rule narrows the definition of who is a covered employee under these statutes, encouraging employer schemes to reclassify their employees as independent contractors to evade those obligations.

Broadly, the Trump administration has been actively dismantling long-standing federal worker protections, leaving states to bear the responsibility of ensuring workers are given rights and protections and that they can exercise them. For most states, labor and employment protections only apply to workers classified as employees, meaning workers misclassified as independent contractors are denied their legal rights and protections.

EPI’s 2026 misclassification report outlines state and federal policy recommendations that ensure proper enforcement mechanisms to curb misclassification. One of the recommendations includes implementing the ABC test. Unlike the six-part “economic reality” test or the “common law” test, the ABC test presumes that a worker is an employee unless they can demonstrate they are an independent contractor based on three criteria. Placing the onus on the employer to determine the employment status of a worker provides protections against misclassification and extends proper protections to workers. Many states have adopted the ABC test for unemployment insurance programs and, to a lesser extent, for wage and hour orders and other employment applications.

As shown in Figure B, The AAPI population is highly concentrated across a handful of states. Almost half of the prime-age working Asian population is concentrated in California, New York, and Texas, and a majority of the Pacific Islander population resides in California, Hawaii, and Washington. Overall, 21 states have significant numbers of AAPI residents, and some are home to large shares of specific AAPI communities. For example, the Hmong community in Minnesota and the Burmese community in Indiana are concentrated in states that have smaller total AAPI populations.

The current landscape for state policy protections against misclassification is quite varied. For example, among the states with the largest AAPI populations, California is the only state to adopt the ABC test for both unemployment insurance and employment law, although certain occupations are exempt from the test—including app-based drivers. California also institutes penalties for misclassifying a worker, which can include restitution payments and, if the misclassification was willful, a penalty between $5,000 to $25,000 per violation.

Texas, on the other hand, has significantly less state enforcement. Apart from using the common law test for its unemployment insurance program and providing a definition of an independent contractor for workers’ compensation, Texas mainly relies on federal law for classifying workers as employees. In the last 15 years, Texas lawmakers have introduced several bills that would create penalties for misclassifying workers in the construction industry, but all have stalled or failed.

Figure B

Comprehensive protections are needed to protect workers from misclassification

AAPI workers are facing multi-pronged attacks from the Trump administration through the degradation of federal protections for workers, immigration, and equity. Occupational segregation and other labor market disparities lead women, people of color, and immigrants to be disproportionately represented in occupations that are commonly misclassified. These factors—in addition to historical and current geopolitical relations that shape the flow of labor to the U.S., immigration and citizenship status, and English language proficiency—can contribute to the concentration of AAPI workers in these occupations. Disaggregated data further identify which specific AAPI communities are overrepresented, revealing that smaller, less economically secure groups are often most exposed to the costs of misclassification. Strong policies at the federal, state, and local levels are needed to combat misclassification and to ensure workers can exercise their rights.

Our decisions about whom and how to tax are decisions about which community needs we have the capacity to address and at what scale. Progressive taxes like personal, investment, and corporate income taxes generate more revenue from those who have the greatest ability to pay, and for whom the cost of losing the next dollar is small, relative to the last dollar of a family struggling to make rent and afford groceries. On the other hand, regressive revenue strategies like non-strategic tariffs, fees and fines, and an overreliance on sales taxes, especially when combined with cuts to social programs, heighten the sense that the system is unfair. Where progressive revenue strategies can bind a community together in mutual support and expand capacity to meet needs through good governance, regressive strategies erode people’s trust in the public sector.

H.R. 1 presents a vision of public finance that is unsustainable and erodes trust in government

Much of the federal tax code is in fact progressively structured, but for decades conservatives have weakened and attacked that progressivity. H.R. 1 (which the White House has referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” or “OBBBA”) is the latest Republican-led effort toward breaking down trust in the public sector and social contract. H.R. 1 provides a suite of tax breaks to households across the income distribution; however, the wealthiest households and corporations see a far bigger tax cut from the package than the typical household does. In service to these tax breaks, the bill introduces devastating cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and critical government agencies designed to help workers and their families thrive. Despite their size and the pain they will cause, these drastic cuts in the federal government’s capacity to serve and support working families are not enough to cover the costs of the corporate tax breaks; the Tax Policy Center estimates that H.R. 1 could increase the federal deficit by between $3.7 trillion and $5.1 trillion by 2034.

But unlike the federal government, states and localities cannot run budget deficits; their budgets must be balanced yearly. When major federal cuts happen, states and localities that rely on federal dollars to maintain critical services are forced to curtail and eliminate services, dive into emergency savings where they exist, or else shift to revenue generation strategies that often fall disproportionately on Black, brown, and poor households. The combination of directly hampering public services working people rely on while shifting more of the burden of raising revenue toward Black, brown, and poor workers and their families weakens worker power and exacerbates racial disparities.

H.R. 1 combines a shift toward regressive revenue strategies with massive tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest households, in service to the Trump administration’s overarching goal: reasserting white, wealthy, and corporate privilege through tax cuts, deregulation, and the defunding of public institutions.

Regressive revenue strategies: Taking from the poor to give the rich even more breaks

The Trump administration has floated using tariffs as a replacement (either in full or part) for the federal income tax. This is not a new Republican strategy: Tariffs are a kind of consumption tax (on imported goods, along with the intermediate products businesses need to create goods and provide services domestically), and Republican-led state governments tend to rely more on consumption taxes1 (like sales taxes) and less on income taxes to increase revenue. Because poorer households spend a larger share of their income purchasing goods and services than the rich do, consumption taxes are inherently more regressive. The current federal income tax is progressively structured, in spite of the ways conservatives have attempted to weaken that progressivity over time. While tariffs can be a sensible part of a larger industrial policy strategy, governments place too large a burden on low- and moderate-income households when they try to use consumption taxes as a primary source of revenue. 

States and localities may turn to fines and fees to raise revenues in the absence of adequate federal support. These penalties are a poor substitute for progressive taxes. Fines and fees historically have only been able to cover a small fraction of state and local budget costs. And this is baked into the design: If the point of a fine or fee is to deter behavior, the best-case scenario (ending the behavior) would result in no revenue.

Even so, fines and fees cause significant economic pain for working-class families in the Black communities that are most affected by them. On an ethical level, a modern idiom applies: “If the penalty for a crime is a fine, that crime only exists for the poor.” The criminal justice system can trap poor folks in a cruel cycle of penalization for being unable to pay traffic tickets, court fees, and even their own surveillance through ankle monitors. Fines and fees increase the economic burden on those with the least ability to pay, all for a low return, making them a poor substitute for broad, progressive taxes.

Faux-progressive revenue strategies are ineffective and distract workers, their families, and policymakers from the need for real change

Ineffective tax gimmicks like temporary deductions on overtime and tipped income distract from the need for real reform around worker pay and scheduling. The point of requiring businesses to pay time-and-a-half for overtime is to discourage pushing workers to work beyond what we have collectively decided is a full and reasonable period of labor. Tipping is an outdated practice with racist roots, designed to shift the cost of maintaining a workforce onto consumers, rather than having employers properly compensate employees. Instead of cynically gesturing toward affordability through encouraging bad business practices, we should empower workers to fight for better wages and consistent scheduling.

Conservatives may also try to balance budgets by allowing progressive tax expenditures to expire (e.g., the recent expiration of the ACA premium tax credits or the expiration of the expanded child tax credits passed as pandemic relief). Temporary tax breaks themselves are not the most effective means of addressing structural economic issues; if health care or health insurance is persistently inaccessible to wide swaths of the population, we should seek to remedy that by making access universal—or, at the very least, making the credits that allowed greater access in the first place permanent. Allowing tax breaks implemented to address structural inequities to expire without an alternative solution to the problem being addressed is negligence. There are ways to balance budgets that do not involve reversing hard-won progress toward equity.

Progressive ways to generate revenue: Worker-centered tax policies can reduce inequality and expand the tax base

There are better ways of raising revenue that will support workers and their families, rebuild public trust in government, and get us the public goods and services we want and need. Since most Americans earn their living through selling their labor, it makes sense to keep some progressive tax on income to ensure people remain invested in the social contract. But with so much wealth and income concentrated amongst a few individuals, a necessary step is shifting more of the tax burden toward extremely high earners, wealth, and investment income. This will generate more revenue to improve public services and infrastructure, while tamping down on inequality. Adding tax brackets for the highest earners, adopting a legitimate tax on wealth holdings, and taxing the income made from investments at a rate closer to that of income from wages and salaries progressively raise revenues without increasing the burden on most U.S. households.

Proper enforcement of the current tax code would go a long way toward improving both our ability to raise funds and the public’s trust in public finance. The tax code is rife with opportunities for wealthy individuals and corporations to evade paying their fair share of taxes, allowing them to skirt holding up their end of the social contract. The IRS is also critically underfunded and recovering from recent staff reductions from the Trump administration. With enough resources to enforce existing tax law effectively, the IRS could go after the largest tax evaders and see returns that matter, as opposed to disproportionately targeting Black households without the funds to instigate a drawn-out legal battle over an audit.

Table 1

We need a tax code that supports states and localities and promotes full economic participation, not temporary tax gimmicks and handouts to the wealthiest

Taxpayers (literally) cannot afford to accept the conservative propaganda that all taxation is a burden on households. Taxes are one way of binding a democratic community together and allowing us to share in the costs of creating collective prosperity and community. Especially at the state and local levels, tax revenues are essential to providing the services people need to thrive. When federal funding gets pulled back and states and localities turn to regressive revenue strategies, it is working-class families who pay the price.

If we are going to rebuild a sense of trust in the social contract, we need to structure the tax code such that it becomes more progressive, tapping into a greater portion of the massive amounts of wealth and income that have pooled at the top. We can use that revenue to fund programs and new infrastructure that allow more people to fully participate in the economy:

• improved funding for public schooling, increasing teacher pay and quality of education
• a fully funded federal food assistance program, and/or adequate funding to states to support their own cash-assistance programs more comprehensive than Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)
• expanded access to and adequacy of Medicaid, or Medicare for All

Each of these initiatives could improve affordability and remove the need for state and local governments to pursue revenue regressive strategies that do more harm than good (like fines and fees). We won’t solve every structural inequality and eliminate all disparities through reforming the tax code; but building the resources and will to collect taxes in a progressive way are steps toward a fairer economy and a government that earns the public’s trust.

1. Consumption taxes have some potential uses. Carbon taxes, for example, tax the consumption of goods whose production intensively uses greenhouse gas-emitting inputs; if consumers look to avoid these goods by switching to others whose production involves fewer greenhouse gas emissions, we achieve an important social good.

Key takeaways:

• Black unemployment rose and employment fell in Q1 2026, reflecting a deterioration in labor market conditions. In the first quarter of 2026, the Black unemployment rate (7.6%) was 1.2 percentage points higher than in the first three months of the second Trump administration.
• Black men’s employment-population (EPOP) ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points (from 60.5% to 58.8%) since the first quarter of 2025, with noncollege graduates driving this decline.
• Black women’s EPOP ratio was the same in Q1 2026 as in Q1 2025 (56.4%), with gains among noncollege graduates offsetting losses among college graduates.

The rising Black unemployment rate and big employment losses among Black women made major news headlines in 2025. In a February 2026 analysis, I examined the nature of those losses, noting the large impact on Black women who were college graduates and public-sector workers. With so much of the Trump policy-induced 2025 labor market decline appearing to land first on Black workers who typically have relatively secure employment, the longer-term significance of those losses is of continuing interest. This post provides an update for the first quarter of 2026, examining changes in the overall Black unemployment rate and gender-specific employment trends for Black women and men relative to the first quarter of 2025. For consistency with the prior analysis, I apply the same mutually exclusive race and ethnicity categories used in EPI’s State of Working America Data Library and include all people age 16 or older when examining outcomes by gender. While these estimates differ slightly from those reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they lead to similar conclusions.

In the first quarter of 2026, the Black unemployment rate (7.6%) was 1.2 percentage points higher than in the first three months of the second Trump administration. While a rise in the unemployment rate can sometimes be for “good” reasons—workers getting drawn into the labor force because of strengthening job opportunities—that was not the case here: the rise in the Black unemployment rate reflected a decline in employment. The Black employment-population ratio (EPOP)—the share of working-age people who are employed—declined 0.8 percentage points over the same period, from 58.3% in Q1 2025 to 57.5% in Q1 2026 (see Figure A).

Figure A

Looking more closely at changes in employment for Black women and men separately, Black women’s first quarter EPOP was the same in 2026 as in 2025 (56.4%), while employment among Black men was 1.7 percentage points lower (from 60.5% to 58.8%). BLS published estimates by race—limited to the sample of people age 20 or older and not exclusive of ethnicity—show a similar decline for Black men (-1.5 percentage points), but a 0.4 percentage point increase for Black women.

Figure B shows that among Black women, Q1 2026 employment was lower than Q1 2025 for college graduates but higher for noncollege graduates, resulting in essentially offsetting effects. The opposite was true among Black men, for whom the decline in employment was driven by lower employment among noncollege graduates and higher employment for college graduates.

Figure B

These first quarter 2026 estimates incorporate annual population adjustments applied to Current Population Survey (CPS) data each January to reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the previous year’s data are not adjusted, monthly data across the two years are not strictly comparable. This year, shifts in the demographic composition of the population also resulted in larger than usual discontinuities in labor force measures by race, ethnicity, and gender between December 2025 and January 2026—which is why this analysis is focused on a comparison between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, when the population controls are the most up to date.

Based on this analysis, we can conclude that overall, labor market conditions for Black workers were not better in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the early months of the Trump administration. Black men’s employment is lower than what was reported in the first quarter of 2025, and while Black women’s employment is unchanged overall, employment among college-educated Black women is lower than first quarter 2025 estimates.  

Since the second Trump administration swept into office in January 2025, it has undertaken a range of damaging and destabilizing actions that have weakened the economy, undermined workers, hurt businesses and consumers, and threatened core elements of our democracy. While Trump has targeted numerous Democratic-led states and cities, the Washington, D.C., region has faced acute and prolonged harms since day one. From the first set of executive actions signed on Inauguration Day, the Trump administration has attacked people and businesses in the capital region repeatedly and intensely. These initial actions announced the president’s dubious claims of authority to fire large segments of the federal workforce, eliminate long-standing federal agencies and programs, and begin a campaign of illegal and inhumane mass deportations.  

The Trump administration’s damaging actions have been enabled and abetted by Republican members of Congress. Their passage of H.R. 1, the bill that the White House has referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), amplifies the administration’s mass deportation agenda and shreds critical health care and food supports for lower-income families to finance tax cuts for the wealthy. This funding bill will only cause more pain in the years ahead for Washington, D.C.-area households and throughout the country.

Congress also passed a federal spending bill that constrained the District of Columbia’s ability to spend its own tax revenue (Koma 2025) and a resolution that may force the district to adopt local tax code changes that match the OBBBA, whether the city wants to or not—changes that will jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars for city programs (D.C. Fiscal Policy Institute 2026).

In this report, we assess the early indicators of the damage of Trump’s actions and their effects on the Washington, D.C., regional economy, with particular attention to effects on workers and the labor market. We focus on this region due to its prominence as an early target of the Trump administration, in part due to its large federal workforce. Additionally, the district’s unique status as a non-state means that its leaders have far less legal authority to resist Trump’s interference than other target areas do.

Throughout this report, unless otherwise indicated, the data describe economic conditions for the Washington, D.C., metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which includes the District of Columbia, four nearby counties in Maryland, six cities and 11 counties in northern Virginia, and one county in West Virginia. We also refer to this region as the DMV (Washington, D.C.; Maryland; and Virginia). While we do not yet have the requisite data to fully and precisely document all the effects of the administration’s actions, we can see clear signals that the regional economy is already struggling, with more severe impacts likely to register in the data soon.

We then explore some of the factors that make other regions particularly vulnerable to significant economic harm from the Trump administration’s agenda. These include counties with large concentrations of federal workers, areas where federal transfer income (such as Medicaid and Social Security) makes up a significant portion of the region’s economic base, and places with significant immigrant populations. Though Trump has largely targeted prominent, Democratic-led areas, many of the regions most susceptible to the harmful economic consequences of the administration’s actions are rural counties, frequently represented in Congress by Republicans.

Trump’s actions in Washington, D.C., have led to reduced employment and rising unemployment

The clearest sign of the harm that the Trump administration’s actions have done to the Washington, D.C., regional economy is the substantial drop in the region’s employment rate. Based on EPI analysis of Current Population Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from December 2024 to December 2025, the share of the regional working-age population with a job fell by 3.2 percentage points.1 As shown in Table 1, this compares with a decline of just 0.4 percentage points for the country over the same period. Among prime-age workers (those ages 25–54), the share employed in the DMV fell by 2.7 percentage points, compared with a decline of just 0.1 percentage points for the country overall.

This dramatic drop in regional employment is a direct result of the Trump administration’s relentless attacks on federal government workers, cuts to federal programs and agencies, and their cascading effects on connected regional industries. Prior to Trump’s taking office, federal employees made up 11.2% of the metro area’s total workforce (BLS-CES-SAE 2025).2 Between the end of 2024 and 2025, federal employment in the DMV region fell by more than 53,800 jobs (-14.2%) (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).3 These losses reverberated through the regional economy as affected households pulled back on spending, and many may have even opted to move, as data show the DMV region had the largest increase in home sale listings of any major metro last year (Brookings Institution 2026).

These significant cuts to federal employment, though highly damaging on their own, are only the first layer of the administration’s harm on the regional labor market. The DMV has a non-federal workforce of over three million people (BLS-CES-SAE 2026), many of whom work at firms that consult with, contract with, are funded by, or are otherwise connected to the government.4 The Trump administration has terminated thousands of grants to scientific research institutions (Kozlov, Tollefson, and Garisto 2026) and frozen or delayed funding for tens of thousands of nonprofit organizations, causing those targeted to limit operations or lay off staff (Tomasko et al. 2025). These cuts have also shrunk the funding pool for nonprofit groups, causing budget challenges even for those not previously receiving federal funding, as they must compete with groups previously funded through federal programs that are now scrambling to fill gaps with private support (Barrett 2025). The administration has also moved to cancel contracts with any company that maintains a commitment to DEI standards (Singh 2026). Although these cuts affect organizations everywhere, the DMV is disproportionately vulnerable to the economic harms of attacks on this sector as it has one of the highest concentrations of nonprofits in the country (Friesenhahn 2025). This is evident in the region’s slight dip (-0.3%) in private-sector employment from December 2024 to December 2025, a change from the consistent, albeit slowing, growth that had marked the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the national level, private-sector employment experienced slow but still positive change (0.5%) over the same period (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).5

The widespread impact of the administration’s actions can be seen in the breadth of employment declines across racial, ethnic, gender, and age groups in the region. As shown in Table 1, the employment rate fell by at least 2 percentage points for every demographic category of workers in the DMV. Notably, young workers under age 25 (-4.3 percentage points), workers age 55 and older (-3.3 percentage points), men (-3.5 percentage points), and Black workers (-5.9 percentage points) all experienced drops in their employment rates larger than the regional average. For older workers, the above-average decline likely reflects, at least in part, the firings and retirements of many federal employees, including many who had been near retirement age and opted into the so-called “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation program. For young workers, the administration’s funding and programmatic cuts directly reduced many traditional Beltway early-career opportunities (internships, fellowships), while weakness in the broader regional economy simultaneously forced area employers to pull back on entry-level positions.

Still, not all groups have been equally affected by Trump’s actions. As Table 1 shows, Black workers in the DMV region have suffered the largest employment declines, with the share employed falling by 5.9 percentage points in 2025. This is nearly triple the employment drop experienced by white workers (2.0 percentage points) in the region and, notably, more than seven times the employment drop of Black workers throughout the country overall (0.8 percentage points). Again, this is a direct consequence of the administration’s attacks on the federal workforce. Black workers have long tended to make up a larger share of the public sector than they do in the private sector—both in the DMV and across the country. This is because the public sector has historically been a pathway to the middle class for workers of color who face labor market discrimination in the private sector (Maye and Marvin 2025).

Trump’s massive cuts to federal employment have also rapidly undone what had been considerable progress in shrinking the regional Black-white employment gap. Figure A shows the employment rate of DMV workers, overall and by race/ethnicity, since the end of 2018. The rapid drop in the Black employment rate since the start of President Trump’s second term is striking, bringing the regional Black employment rate back down to its pandemic-era low. It is also notable that before that drop began, Black workers in the region were employed at essentially the same rate as their white counterparts—the only time in the last two decades when that occurred. These losses in employment will exacerbate existing racial and gender inequity across wages, poverty, and unemployment (Markoff and Zielinski 2026; Zielinski 2025; Busette and Elizondo 2022).

Recent increases in the DMV’s overall unemployment rate underscore the damage Trump is doing to the region. The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped more than a full percentage point, from 3.1% in January 2025 to 4.4% in January 2026—more than four times the increase in the national figure. (Importantly, this increase understates the weakening of the area labor market, as the BLS estimates the DMV labor force shrank by 3% over the same period—meaning that many workers who would have been counted as unemployed simply left the area labor force.) For comparison, the national non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by less than half a percentage point, moving from 4.4% in January 2025 to 4.7% in January 2026 (BLS-LAUS 2026).

These numbers do not capture the full extent of the economic downturn in the DMV area, nor can they give us precise insight into where the pain has been most acutely felt. The administration’s violent deportation agenda, for example, will lead to a drop in immigrant and U.S.-born Hispanic workers’ employment, but resulting changes in Hispanic employment rates may be muted by the corresponding shrinking of the overall Hispanic population (Zipperer 2025). In other words, while the overall Hispanic population in the U.S. may fall dramatically in coming years, the ratio of remaining employed workers to remaining total population may stay somewhat consistent. This will mask the true scale of the economic and social harm being done to immigrant communities in the DMV and across the country.

It is also difficult to fully quantify how the deployment and continued presence of National Guard troops, violent immigration actions, and other authoritarian, fear-inducing tactics have impacted D.C.-area businesses, workers, and families, particularly in neighborhoods with predominately Black and Latino populations. Early data show regional declines in tourism, consumer spending, and foot traffic; harder to capture are the emotional and long-term economic consequences (Montgomery 2025; Hadden Loh and Haskins 2025; Sachs and Cocco 2025). Other recent analyses estimate similar economic harms in cities where targeted federal immigration enforcement actions have been aggressively deployed (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). A full accounting of the Trump administration’s harms on the Washington, D.C., region will take years to document.

Other localities should brace for similar consequences

Some of the Trump administration’s actions and their acute consequences are unique to the DMV, a function of the region’s high concentration of federal employees and government contractors, as well as the District of Columbia’s lack of statehood and full constitutional rights. However, the anti-government attacks the administration has unleashed on DMV-area households, workers, and businesses will have cascading consequences for communities throughout the country. The effects of the administration’s authoritarian attacks on the civil service, democratic institutions, and immigrants (Human Rights Watch 2026) that first registered across the DMV should be viewed as a preview of the consequences that will be felt in other regions. While no locality will be spared, regions particularly at risk include those with large shares of government workers (especially federal workers, but state and local government workers too), localities in which federal funding and social safety net programs make up a large portion of total area income, and those with large immigrant populations.

Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce will harm communities that rely on their employment

The day Trump returned to power in January 2025, he began attacking the federal workforce, first by moving to reclassify tens of thousands of federal employees to make it easier to fire and replace them with political loyalists (EPI 2026c), and then by stripping more than one million federal workers of their collective bargaining rights (EPI 2025a). The Trump White House subsequently worked feverishly to slash federal employment, attempting large and chaotic reductions in force, shuttering entire agencies, and coercing tens of thousands of staff to resign, among many other attacks (Poydock 2025). As of March 2026, the administration’s actions have reduced nationwide federal government employment by over 350,000 (11.7%) since January 2025 (Gould 2026).

Though federal workers make up a sizeable share of the DMV’s workforce, over 80% of federal workers live outside the region (Partnership for Public Service 2024). For instance, in Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico—states that are home to large swaths of federal and Native land, military bases, and federal research institutions—federal workers make up at least 4.5% of total employment (EPI 2025c). Within states, federal workers tend to be concentrated in specific localities. For instance, in Apache County, Arizona, which is largely made up of the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache Reservations, lands that extend beyond county lines, the federal government employs 12% of the county’s workers, more than double the next most significant county for federal worker employment in the state (EPI 2025c). There are 22 U.S. counties, spread across the South, Midwest, and West Census regions, where federal workers comprise at least 10% of the county’s workforce (see Table 2).

In these counties and elsewhere, federal workers are the backbone of the regional economy, both through the essential services they provide and through their contributions to the local economy. Trump’s attacks simultaneously threaten federal workers’ livelihoods and the economic health of communities in which these workers’ spending on goods and services makes up a large share of economic activity in the region. In Apache County, Arizona, civilian government workers’ earnings comprise 11.7% of total economic activity in the county (see Table 3)—roughly the same as their share of overall county employment. However, in some counties, federal employees’ earnings are a disproportionate share of the regional economic base. For instance, in Leavenworth County, Kansas, where federal employees make up 10.0% of employment (Leavenworth has a large federal prison), federal civilian earnings comprise 22.1% of total income in the county.

The effects from lost federal jobs and income in these regions could be devastating. Some of these communities are places that have already faced historic disinvestment and in which there are few local employment opportunities that can match the quality of federal government jobs. These jobs are historically stable, good quality, union jobs that offer a pathway to the middle class, particularly for workers without a college education.6

Regions highly dependent on federal revenue will also suffer from a reduction in services and a loss of income

Beyond the harm to localities from reductions in the federal workforce, localities that are particularly reliant on federal government revenue and services will bear the consequences of Trump’s actions most acutely, though no locality will be spared from harm. For example, the Trump administration has announced or considered $23 billion in cuts to federal clean energy projects in nearly every state (CATF 2025) and $8 billion in cuts to colleges and universities that will impact every state’s economy (Bedekovics and Ragland 2025). Trump’s 2025 budget bill also made massive cuts to federal safety net programs that millions of low-income households rely on in order to finance tax cuts for the wealthiest households and corporations.

Funds from federal programs such as SNAP, Medicaid, and other social programs not only help struggling families make ends meet, they also comprise a significant share of a locality’s “economic base,” the amount of money circulating in that region, as shown by sociologist Robert Manduca in a recent working paper (2025). Indeed, an often-overlooked benefit of Medicaid coverage is its role as a source of income for low-income households (money they would have had to spend on medical care in the absence of Medicaid). For the bottom 20% of households in the U.S., Medicaid comprised 70% of their total money income, based on recent data from the Congressional Budget Office (Bivens, Wething, and Morrissey 2025). In fact, government transfers such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid collectively made up 40% of the economic base of U.S. regions in 2022 (Manduca 2025). Substantial cuts to government social programs that support low-income households could reduce the economic base of these localities, at a scale equivalent, in many cases, to the loss of entire private industries in those areas.

Without deliberate intervention by state lawmakers to offset lost federal revenues, localities in every state face dire economic losses, but states particularly reliant on government transfers will suffer most. For instance, take Clay County, West Virginia, which is represented in Congress by Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV01), who voted in support of Trump’s budget bill (Miller 2025). Clay County’s poverty rate is more than double the national rate, and its per capita income is half the national amount (U.S. Census 2024a). Of the 10 U.S. counties that rely most on each of the largest federal social insurance programs (Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, and Social Security) as a share of their economic base, Clay is the only county in the country to show up three times (see Table 4). Federal government transfers in the form of Medicare, SNAP, and Social Security payments comprise 57% of Clay County’s economic base, 20 times the share comprised by the earnings of every private industry in the county combined. Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia all have at least three counties that are ranked in the top 10 in the country for their reliance on a given social safety net program as a share of the county’s economic base (see Table 4).

Localities that have significant shares of federal workers and rely heavily on federal government transfers may face particularly significant consequences as a result of Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce and the Republican budget bill’s cuts to essential social safety net programs. For example, in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, and Apache County, Arizona, federal government workers make up 16.1% and 12.0% of all workers in the county, respectively (EPI 2025b). At the same time, both counties are ranked in the top-10 counties most reliant on federal government transfers—Apache is #2 for Medicaid, and Rio Arriba is #10 for SNAP. In Apache County, federal government transfers account for three-quarters (76.9%) of the county’s economic base, and the earnings of federal government civilian workers account for 11.7%—the Navajo Nation Tribal Government is the county’s largest employer (NACOG 2023). Meanwhile, private earnings account for a mere 2.8% of the county’s economy. In Apache, Trump’s cuts to both the federal workforce and federal government programs mean that the federal government may be unable to fulfill its legal obligations to tribal communities (Brown 2025) that have faced decades of disinvestment and depressed economic outcomes resulting from historic land theft and forced assimilation. Apache County’s poverty rate of 31.2% (AZ Economics 2026) is nearly triple the national rate of 11.1% in 2023 (Shrider 2024).

Trump’s anti-immigrant crackdown and deportation agenda hurt localities with large immigrant populations

Trump has launched a campaign of terror against immigrant communities, communities of color, and those who stand with them. Last summer, Trump federalized local police and deployed thousands of federal troops to diverse cities with large immigrant populations (Kim 2025). Though Washington, D.C., may have experienced the most visible federal troop presence, a function of the district’s lack of statehood and the president’s unchecked authority to mobilize the National Guard there (Dallas 2025), Los Angeles was the first city Trump targeted after public opposition to aggressive immigration raids (Kim 2025). It was soon followed by Washington, D.C.; Memphis, Tennessee; Portland, Oregon; New Orleans, Louisiana; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Portland, Maine.

These attacks are characteristic of an authoritarian playbook that includes forcing the leaders of diverse, opposition-led communities to bend to the strongman government’s will (McManus, Benson, and Herman 2024). Minneapolis, home to a large immigrant population, was subjected to an unprecedented immigration crackdown that drew widespread protests (Boone 2026). During “Operation Metro Surge,” as it was called, federal immigration enforcement officials made 4,000 arrests and killed two U.S. citizens. Though the true toll of this violent operation may never be fully quantified, initial economic data show clear cause for concern. A recent analysis estimated that Trump’s immigration crackdown has led to a 2.9% decline in consumer spending in Minnesota over a single month—the equivalent of the state’s economy losing $626 million (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). Relative to overall consumer spending, the food and accommodation sector (which employs a large share of immigrant workers) saw the most significant decline in January 2026—3.8% or a $46 million reduction in economic activity. Researchers also estimated that nearly 3% of workers in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul region were unable to work during the occupation, resulting in a loss of over $100 million in wages (Sojourner and Rosenthal 2026).

Trump’s deportation agenda will continue to destabilize local communities and result in job losses for immigrant and U.S.-born residents alike (Zipperer 2025). Though immigrants live in counties across the U.S., coastal urban areas tend to have the largest shares of foreign-born residents. Counties with the largest foreign-born populations include Miami-Dade, Florida; Queens, New York; Aleutians, Alaska; and Hudson, New Jersey (see Table 5). Counties with relatively large shares of immigrants may see particularly acute harms from aggressive immigration enforcement.

Communities face overlapping economic threats from attacks on federal workers, the social safety net, and immigrants, but state and local lawmakers can resist them.

The Trump administration’s attacks on the federal workforce, the social safety net, and immigrant communities are designed to exacerbate economic precarity in many communities that are already struggling (Bivens 2026). The implementation of Trump’s authoritarian agenda in the DMV region may be the first, clearest, and in some cases most direct manifestation of its harms, but other localities across the country—particularly those with large federal workforces, those that are heavily dependent on federal revenue and those with sizeable immigrant populations—are far from immune, and many will suffer as much, if not more, from this agenda.

While state and local leaders cannot stop federal attacks, they do have the power to resist Trump’s agenda by improving state labor standards (EPI 2026b), advancing protections for immigrant workers (Díaz and Whitaker 2026), investing in the public-sector workforce (Bivens and Shierholz 2026), and using progressive tax policies (Austin and Davis 2025) to stabilize funding for critical social programs and other investments that workers, families, and communities need.

Notes

1. Throughout this report, unless explicitly noted, the source for all employment rate data is the authors’ analysis of Current Population Survey data (EPI 2026a). We compare an average of calendar year 2025 with calendar year 2024 in order to have adequate sample sizes for the noted demographic groups.

2. Employment level by industry and sector data come from the authors’ analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) State and Metro Area (SAE) data.

3. These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. A quarterly comparison of 2025Q4 to 2024Q4 finds roughly the same results—employment fell by 52,600 jobs (13.9%). The quarterly analysis omits October in both years to maintain an apples-to-apples comparison, accounting for missing data due to the government shutdown that began in October 2025 and the subsequent lapse in Bureau of Labor Statistics funding.

4. The non-federal workforce includes private sector workers as well as state and local government employees.

5. These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. Quarterly comparisons of 2025 Q4 to 2024 Q4 produce similar results—private sector employment fell by 0.1% in the DMV and grew by 0.7% nationally. The quarterly analysis follows the methodology outlined in note 2.

6. On average, federal workers with advanced degrees typically earn less in wages and total compensation than their private-sector counterparts. Federal workers without an advanced degree typically earn more than their private-sector counterparts and have access to retirement benefits that have become less common in the private sector (CBO 2024).

References

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But diverting public funds away from public K–12 schools and toward private schools does not guarantee educational opportunities will be expanded for all students—and this is especially true in rural communities. Most obviously, because students in rural communities often don’t have a private school option and therefore cannot use the vouchers, state voucher programs—which are financed by all the taxpayers in a state—amount to an education subsidy for wealthy urban families at the expense of strong public schools. Moreover, for rural areas that can support multiple school systems, voucher programs introduce a potentially large cost for the students that remain in public schools, as any sharp drop in public school enrollment will raise the fixed cost per pupil of running schools. For example, school facilities and staff that are efficient for 1,000 students in a school may no longer be efficient if enrollment were to drop to 800 or 900.

Voucher programs work like this: Parents who wish to send their kid to private school can receive public funding to cover part of the tuition or education-related expenses, rather than paying out of pocket. In states with vouchers programs, this added cost to government of paying for private educational expenses makes a big dent in state budgets—see examples here, here, and here. These programs also often entail fraud and abuse of funds and strip away funding for public schools. As a share of K–12 budgets, voucher spending accounted for as much as 26% in 2025, squeezing public schools of sorely needed funds. Moreover, recent reports have documented accounts of voucher funding getting used for high-end concert tickets and rideshare apps like Uber and Lyft. For wealthy parents in urban districts who were already planning to send their kids to private school, these slippery regulations and extra funding for education expenses are a feature, not a bug, of voucher programs. Vouchers are disproportionately taken up by students already attending private school, compared with those who consider a private school option when voucher laws get passed in their state.

For students in rural areas with no private school option, voucher programs simply mean there is less to spend on public schools, which leads to teacher shortages, fewer educational opportunities, and worse building maintenance. In rural communities with homeschooling or private school options, voucher programs impose an added cost to public education when students transition from public to private school.

We call this cost the fiscal externality of voucher programs, and it is borne by school districts, students, and their families when voucher-driven declines in student enrollment intersect with the fixed nature of many school costs. In rural districts, many key education costs—such as interest on bonds issued in the past, heating, electricity for school buildings, bus drivers, and even some staff—cannot easily adjust to student enrollment declines.

While public schools’ fixed costs do not decline when they lose students to voucher programs, their revenue does. Thus, when students in rural areas take up vouchers to leave public school for private school or homeschool, public schools have less revenue to cover the same level of fixed costs. The costs that can be adjusted—such as supplies or certain personnel—will get forced down due to shrinking school budgets. These variable costs are crucial for effectively educating children, meaning students who remain in public schools will pay the price of voucher program takeup.

This fiscal externality therefore leaves districts unable to deliver the same level of instruction to the remaining public school pupils. When students leave public schools in rural areas with voucher programs, there are fewer resources available on a daily basis to educate kids—fewer teachers and other staff members and fewer curriculum and education supplies. Education quality suffers.

How large is the fiscal externality that voucher programs impose on public schools in rural districts? Take the McComb Local School District in Ohio, which had 627 students in 2022 and is classified as a rural district according to the U.S. Census. Using EPI’s Fiscal Externality Calculator, we estimate that a 5% decline in enrollment would lead to an increased cost of $520 per pupil for the remaining students in the district, or a total of $309,530.

The key assumption is that there is some fraction of schools’ costs that is fixed and can’t be adjusted in the near term when enrollment falls. We assume that instruction and services costs (the cost of teachers and services like transportation, counseling, nurses, and school administrators) can only partially adjust to changes in enrollment. Specifically, we assume that when enrollment declines, instruction costs are only able to adjust by 50% of the enrollment decline, and service costs are only able to adjust by 20%. We assume that capital and building and maintenance costs can’t be adjusted at all. (Users can set their own adjustment rates for their school districts using the fiscal externality calculator here. The method behind this calculation is detailed in our report.)

Under these assumptions, aggregating all the rural Ohio districts using the rural categorization of school districts from the National Center for Education Statistics, a voucher-driven 5% enrollment decline would impose a fiscal externality of just over $206 million on Ohio public schools.

Rural districts have the most to lose when states enact voucher programs. For rural communities, vouchers are not a cost-free policy that simply expands education options for children—they are a subsidy for wealthy urban and suburban families at the expense of strong public schools. Voucher programs also introduce a large potential cost for the students that remain in rural public schools. The public spending declines associated with the introduction of vouchers will reliably cause significantly worse educational outcomes at a time when states should be spending more—not less—on public schools. States that promote voucher programs at the expense of funding for strong public education are signaling that rural students are not a priority. 

Table 1

The benefits of raising the minimum wage

Raising the minimum wage is a research-backed policy that increases earnings for low-wage workers without causing increases in unemployment or other negative economic side effects. A strong wage floor is also a powerful tool for making a more equitable economy. Almost two-thirds of the workers who would be affected by SQ 832 are women (63.3%). The policy would also disproportionately benefit workers of color. Hispanic workers make up 18.2% of the affected workers, compared with 11.0% of the total Oklahoma workforce. Black workers would be 10.6% of affected workers, while only making up 7.1% of the workforce (see Table 3).

The policy would also provide critical support to workers experiencing significant economic insecurity. Nearly three-fifths (59.3%) of the affected workers have incomes below 200% of the poverty line. Research shows that raising the minimum wage significantly reduces poverty, even as higher wages simultaneously reduce some workers’ and families’ eligibility for, and reliance on, public assistance programs.

A higher minimum wage would help combat the affordability crisis

While dozens of states and cities have passed minimum wage increases over the past 15 years, Oklahoma is one of 20 states that still uses the dismally low federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. Policymakers have not raised the federal minimum wage since July 2009, meaning that as prices throughout the economy have risen, the buying power of a paycheck at the federal minimum wage has fallen—substantially. Adjusting for inflation, the federal minimum wage is worth 30% less than it was in 2009. In fact, since 2025, the federal minimum wage has officially been a poverty-level wage under the Department of Health and Human Services’ guidelines. The stagnant federal minimum wage is one example of how economic policy in recent decades has suppressed workers’ wage growth, squeezing them as prices have continued to rise and creating the affordability crisis.

Fortunately, SQ 832 would not only raise the state minimum wage to more adequate levels, but also automatically adjust it for inflation beginning in 2030. Twenty-one states already use these automatic increases to ensure that low-wage workers don’t lose ground over time as prices rise.

SQ 832 would go a long way toward improving conditions for the lowest-paid workers in the state as they contend with rising housing, energy, and health insurance costs. However, the reality is that most Oklahoma workers face higher living costs than can be supported by a $15-per-hour wage. Figure A shows estimates of a living wage for a single adult in different Oklahoma metro areas using EPI’s Family Budget Calculator. All Oklahoma metro areas have living wages above $16 an hour. Workers in Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln County must earn at least $18 an hour to meet the Family Budget Calculator threshold. Even the lowest-cost county in the state (McIntosh County, not shown) has a living wage greater than $15 an hour.

Figure A

SQ 832’s $15 target would help hundreds of thousands of Oklahoma workers earn closer to a living wage and put Oklahoma’s wage standards more in line with many other states. As of January 2026, 17 states and the District of Columbia had at least a $15 minimum wage—including states such as Arizona, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Lawmakers and voters in many states have adopted higher state and local minimum wages both in response to federal inaction and because economic research has reached a strong consensus that raising the minimum wage, at least to levels attempted thus far, has not caused any measurable harm to employment.  

A $15 minimum wage in Oklahoma is not an outlier compared with policies in other states, even after accounting for differences in the labor markets of different jurisdictions. Economists use the minimum-to-median wage ratio (sometimes called the Kaitz index) to assess the “bite” or strength of the wage floor relative to wage levels in the area where the policy is taking place. This measure allows us to see how a $15 minimum wage compares in New York and Oklahoma, where the overall distribution of wages is substantially different. Most minimum wage research has studied policies with minimum-to-median wage ratios of .67 or less (i.e., a minimum wage raised as high as two-thirds the median wage in the same jurisdiction.) Table 2 shows the current and projected path of Oklahoma’s minimum-to-median wage ratio if SB 832 passes. The ratio would grow as the policy goes into effect, but it would likely never exceed 60%—meaning it is solidly in the range of policies that economists have studied and found no negative effect on employment.

Table 2

Oklahoma’s current minimum wage suppresses pay for workers

Establishing and periodically raising a strong wage floor is necessary to counteract employers’ excess market power over workers, which keeps wages lower than they would be in a truly competitive market. Workers face a multitude of barriers which provide wage-setting leverage for employers. Workers often have limited information about wages and work policies at alternative employers and can be constrained in their job choices by limited transportation options or the need to maintain specific schedules for child care and other family needs. Low-wage workers typically have less financial ability than higher-wage workers to overcome these obstacles, and are more likely to encounter take-it-or-leave-it wage offers that prevent them from negotiating pay. These challenges (sometimes called “frictions”) add up, providing leverage for employers to pay lower wages than workers need—and lower than what is optimal for the local economy.

Oklahoma’s weak wage floor suppresses pay for hundreds of thousands of workers. The state has the third-highest share of workers earning less than $15 an hour (21%). Although there are relatively few workers who earn exactly $7.25 an hour, one undervalued benefit of a strong wage floor is that it supplies upwards pressure on the wages of low-wage workers who earn more than the minimum wage. These “spillover effects” mean that workers above the new minimum wage threshold also see wage increases as employers adjust other workers’ pay to maintain wage ladders and preserve seniority.

Oklahomans have a consequential opportunity to strengthen the wage floor and deliver a meaningful raise to hundreds of thousands of workers. A $15 minimum wage is evidence-backed, both by rigorous economic research and the recent experience of many other states. SQ 832 would support families as they struggle with the affordability crisis and generate lasting improvements to the health and equity of the economy.

Table 3

Key takeaways:

• The persistent gender wage gap widened slightly in 2025; women were paid 18.6% less than men on average after controlling for race and ethnicity, education, age, marital status, and state.
• Women are paid less than men across all education levels. Women with a graduate degree earn less, on average, than men with only a college degree.

• The gender pay gap worsened following a year of Trump administration attacks on workers, including cuts to the federal workforce; attacks on diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts; ordering mass deportations; and undermining child care and home care providers.
• States can narrow the gender pay gap with policies that guarantee access to paid family and medical leave, mandate pay transparency, raise the minimum wage, and make it easier for workers to form unions.

March 26 is Equal Pay Day, a reminder that there is still a significant pay gap between men and women in our country. The date represents how far into 2026 women would have to work on top of the hours they worked in 2025 simply to match what men were paid in 2025.

On an hourly basis, women were paid 18.6% less on average than men in 2025, after controlling for race and ethnicity, education, age, marital status, and state. After narrowing to a series low of 18.0% in 2024—likely driven by a strong labor market recovery from the COVID-19 recession that lifted wages more at the lower end of the overall wage distribution—the gender wage gap widened slightly in 2025. Though far from a total reversal of the last few years’ progress, the slight worsening in 2025 reflects the slowing of low-end wage growth and the economic consequences of Trump’s first year back in office.

Women are paid less than men due to discrimination associated with occupational segregation, devaluation of women’s work, and societal norms, much of which takes root well before women enter the labor market. The wage gap is smallest among lower-wage workers partly because the minimum wage creates a wage floor. At the 10th percentile, women are paid $1.39 (or 9.1%) less an hour than men, while the wage gap at the middle is $4.12 an hour (or 14.7%). Women at the 90th percentile of their wage distribution are paid $14.05 (or 19.6%) less an hour than men at the 90th percentile of the wage distribution.

Women are paid less than men at every education level

Although women have seen gains in educational attainment over the last five decades, they still face a significant wage gap. Among workers, women slightly outnumber men in the college-educated labor force and are significantly more likely to obtain a graduate degree than men. Even so, women are paid less than men at every education level, as shown in Figure A.

Figure A

Among workers who have only a high school diploma, women are paid 21.5% less than men. Among workers who have a college degree, women are paid 23.8% less than men. That gap of $12.07 per hour translates to roughly $25,100 lower annual earnings for a full-time worker. Women with an advanced degree also experience a significant hourly wage gap of $17.70 in 2025, amounting to over $36,800 annually.

What the data makes very clear is that women cannot educate themselves out of the gender wage gap. Systemic inequities are so persistent that women with advanced degrees are paid less per hour, on average, than men with only college degrees. Men with a college degree only are paid $50.61 per hour on average compared with $49.67 for women with an advanced degree.

Black and Hispanic women experience the largest wage gaps

For Black and Hispanic women, the pay gaps relative to white men are even larger due to compounded discrimination and occupational segregation based on both gender and race/ethnicity. In Figure B, we compare middle wages—or the 50th percentile of each group’s wage distribution—for Asian American/Pacific Islander (AAPI), Black, Hispanic, and white women with that of white men.1

White and AAPI women are paid 81.9% and 93.3%, respectively, of the amount non-Hispanic white men are paid. Black women are paid only 68.3% of white men’s wages at the middle, down from 69.6% in 2024. This is a gap of $9.87 on an hourly basis, which translates to roughly $20,500 lower annual earnings for a full-time worker. For Hispanic women, the gap is even larger: Hispanic women are paid only 64.5% of white men’s wages, an hourly wage gap of $11.06. For a full-time worker, that gap is over $23,000 a year. This disparity has also risen slightly compared with last year.

Figure B

Even when controlling for age, education, marital status, and state of residence, Black and Hispanic women are paid 25.3% and 27.4% less than their white male counterparts, respectively. In other words, very little of the observed difference in pay is explained by differences in education, experience, or regional economic conditions.

Trump administration policies exacerbate lower pay and make it harder to enforce antidiscrimination laws

Over the last year, the Trump administration has repeatedly taken actions that harm women workers, including:

• slashing the federal workforce;
• weaponizing agencies meant to defend workers and combat discrimination by turning them into defenders of discriminatory practices;
• eliminating enforcement of race- and gender-based equal employment practices for federal contractors;
• ordering mass deportations;
• undermining child care providers and vital state funds;
• limiting access to funding for higher education;
• rolling back protections for home care workers; and
• normalizing harassment and retaliation in the workplace.

Black and Hispanic women have endured and will continue to suffer the consequences of these attacks more intensely than many of their white, non-Hispanic male colleagues. Trump’s reckless decimation of the federal workforce, for instance, has disproportionately affected Black women, for whom government jobs have historically been a powerful tool for economic mobility and security. In 2025, Black women’s employment rate fell by 1.4 percentage points to 55.7%. This is one of the sharpest one-year declines in the last 25 years and is a much more dramatic drop than that of other women or Black men. College-educated Black women experienced the largest drop in employment, likely because nearly half of Black federal government workers have a bachelor’s degree or higher. This drop in well-paid, traditionally stable jobs will almost certainly lead to increased economic insecurity. Additionally, mass deportations will likely reduce jobs for both immigrant and U.S.-born women, particularly in the care sector, disproportionately impacting Hispanic women.

The Trump administration has also stifled the government’s ability to protect workers and penalize discriminatory employers. The restriction of the use of words like “gender,” “race,” “equity,” and “discrimination,” and attempts to weaponize the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) against women and workers of color will harm all workers, while weakening our ability to track pay equity and enforce nondiscrimination laws. Staffing levels at the EEOC have fallen steadily over the last four decades, but recent funding cuts and shifting priorities will exacerbate its already reduced capacity for enforcement. There have also been ongoing threats to the availability and continued collection of key data throughout federal agencies. If agencies that collect data on wages and incomes by demographic characteristics pull back, it would be a disaster for anyone—policymakers, researchers, employers, or workers—who wants basic facts about how well the economy is performing for different workers and different sectors.

Despite federal threats, states can help close the gender pay gap

Closing pay gaps by gender and by race and ethnicity will require policy solutions on multiple fronts. Although attacks on gender and racial equity continue at the federal level, state lawmakers can and must take steps to address the gender wage gap. Potential solutions include enacting pay transparency laws, mandating Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML), raising the minimum wage, funding universal child care, and removing anti-worker, so-called “right-to-work” (RTW) statutes. Figure C highlights the states that have already passed some of these critical pieces of legislation, while underscoring the need for strong federal standards to cover the millions of workers who live outside of these states.

Figure C

Only 14 states have mandatory, comprehensive PFML policies, even though they provide essential benefits that help workers maintain their livelihoods while taking care of themselves and their families. Studies show that access to PFML improves outcomes for parents and children, workforce participation, and job retention, and that this a beneficial policy for both employees and employers. Access to paid leave is also shown to bridge racial gaps in care and pay.

Pay transparency laws are another useful tool that prevents employers from offering unequal pay by requiring them to include wage information in job postings. While there is some variation in laws, all include some requirement that employers provide salary information in job postings, but employers in Connecticut, Maryland, and Rhode Island only must furnish that information if requested by applicants. This wage transparency has the potential to reduce gender-based discrimination by arming jobseekers with more information and limiting employers’ ability to pay different amounts to similarly qualified candidates. A Colorado pay transparency law, for example, reduced gender wage gaps for workers who changed jobs by as much as 8.9%.

Policymakers effectively stopped protecting workers’ rights to form unions and bargain collectively starting in the 1980s, resulting in less leverage for workers and increased income inequality. Weak labor law allows employers to retaliate against union organizing and undermine workers’ right to collectively bargain. Union contracts can help narrow gender and racial wage gaps by providing clear wages for a given level of experience and education, reducing employers’ ability to discriminate in wage setting. Unfortunately, 26 states have RTW laws that make it even harder for unions to effectively organize and bargain for better contracts. States with these laws not only have lower unionization rates but also have wider gender wage gaps. By making it easier for workers to form unions, policymakers can help reduce these pay gaps.

The minimum wage keeps wages from falling below a mandated floor. While the real value of the federal minimum wage has been allowed to decline, down nearly $5 an hour since its peak in 1968, states have stepped in and increased their minimum wage. As of January 2026, 30 states and D.C. have minimum wages higher than the federal minimum, covering more than half of U.S. workers. Since women are disproportionately found in the low-wage workforce, these laws are key to increasing their economic security and narrowing wage gaps at the lower end of the wage distribution.

Although there is no single policy that will close the wage gap, each of these solutions will narrow it and improve conditions for workers across the country. In his first year back in office, Trump has rolled back critical labor standards, decimated federal unions, and laid off tens of thousands of federal workers. Now, more than ever, it is critical that states step up to protect workers under attack, prevent the gender wage gap from expanding, and build an equitable economy that works for all. 

1. Race/ethnicity categories are mutually exclusive in this analysis. Here we denote white to mean white non-Hispanic, Black is Black non-Hispanic, Asian American/Pacific Islander (AAPI) are AAPI non-Hispanic, and Hispanic refers to Hispanic of any race.

Key takeaways:

• Trump has weaponized the EEOC to go after employers with diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, accusing them of “reverse racism” against white workers—but nothing in the EEOC’s own data points to evidence of systemic discrimination against white workers.
• People of color have made up a growing share of the U.S. working-age population since 1989, while the share of the white working-age population has fallen from 76.9% in 1989 to 55.4% in 2025.
• According to data submitted to the EEOC by large employers, workers of color make up more than 40% of the workforce but hold only 1 in 5 executive or senior-level positions—a pattern that contradicts the administration’s narrative of bias against white workers.

Trump’s Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) recently opened a federal investigation into Nike and its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives—alleging systemic discrimination against white workers. This is the first time the EEOC has targeted a large private employer with a federal investigation and subpoena explicitly linked to their DEI initiatives and hiring goals. Shortly thereafter, the EEOC sued a Coca-Cola bottling company for sex discrimination following a networking event it held for female employees. The EEOC chair closed a busy February with a letter to Fortune 500 companies, warning them about “unlawful discrimination” related to their use of DEI initiatives.

These recent EEOC actions reflect Trump’s undue control over the agency and his administration’s effective weaponization of the EEOC to fight against DEI, a broad set of programs and initiatives designed to remedy the long and well-documented history of systemic injustices against people of color and women in the labor market. Established by the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the EEOC has operated as an independent federal agency throughout its 60-year history enforcing employment nondiscrimination laws—until last year.

EEOC Chair Andrea Lucas has repeatedly affirmed her commitment to redirecting the EEOC’s priorities toward those of the administration; she has made the scrutiny of DEI programs and initiatives a top enforcement priority. This restructuring of EEOC priorities follows the administration’s revisionist version of history that centers white men—not people of color and women—as the primary victims of labor market discrimination. In an unprecedented move last December, Chair Lucas actively solicited discrimination complaints from white male workers, arguing that DEI initiatives function as illegal quotas that make it easier for employers to discriminate against white men. Previous EEOC chairs have avoided using their platform to solicit charges from specific demographic groups. In January 2026, the Republican majority voted to give the chair more power to decide which matters reach the full commission and to require nearly all litigation to be approved by the commissioners. The vote to centralize power with the chair and Republican majority completely neutralizes bipartisan decision-making over which cases to pursue.

Right-wing commentators have cited a now debunked report that over 90% of new corporate hires were people of color as evidence of DEI gone too far. In this post, we expose the fallacy of such claims by showing increased employment among people of color is consistent with demographic changes in the working-age population. The Trump EEOC’s targeting of employers with programs aimed at improving hiring and promotion of historically underrepresented groups defies the ongoing demographic changes of the U.S. labor force and the spirit of the Civil Rights Act that created the agency. Under current law, anyone who believes they’ve experienced discrimination based on race, sex, color, religion, national origin, age, and disability can file a charge. By prioritizing so-called “reverse discrimination,” fewer of the underfunded agency’s resources will be available to investigate systemic inequities against workers of color or members of any other protected class.

DEI programs or not, the U.S. working population is increasingly more diverse and less white

 As Trump’s EEOC goes after private employers based on their efforts to improve workplace diversity, equity, and inclusion, it is important to understand that non-Hispanic white workers are a smaller share of the U.S. workforce than they were decades ago. In 1989, for example, more than 3 out of 4 people between the ages of 16 and 64 were white (see Figure A). This share declined by 28% over the course of the last three decades. In 2025, just over half (55.4%) of the U.S. working-age population was white. People of color, on the other hand, have become an increasing share of the working-age population since 1989.

Figure A

Last year, more than 2 in 5 individuals between the ages of 16 and 64 were either Hispanic, Black, or Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI). This figure nearly doubled between 1989 and 2025. A significant share of this growth can be attributed to the growth of the Hispanic working-age population, which nearly tripled over the course of the last three decades with increased immigration.

Figure B

This demographic shift is most evident among younger workers—the new hires who will gradually replace less diverse cohorts of older workers as they retire. Nearly 1 in 2 individuals between the ages of 16 to 24 are either Black, Hispanic, AAPI, or American Indian and Alaska Native (see Figure B), up more than 80% since 1989. Based on these numbers, it is only logical that historically underrepresented groups of workers account for a larger share of employment now and in the future than they did decades ago—regardless of DEI initiatives. In fact, workplaces that reflect the growing diversity of the labor force are a sign of less discrimination, not of a bias against white workers. Moreover, employers who set and pursue DEI goals that develop the talent and career growth of workers of color are making forward-looking investments in the leadership of the future workforce. This has been a primary motivation and justification for many DEI initiatives.

Despite the growing diversification of the U.S. workforce, EEOC data suggest that people of color continue to be underrepresented in leadership positions

While Trump’s EEOC targets and accuses employers with equity initiatives of bias against white workers, demographic statistics reported to the regulatory agency paint a different picture when it comes to representation in leadership roles. Private employers with 100 or more employees and federal contractors with 50 or more employees are required to file an annual EEO-1 report. These data are used to support EEOC enforcement efforts and can raise flags about systemic patterns of discrimination. Based on publicly available EEO-1 data for 2023 (latest year), white workers are significantly more likely to be overrepresented in leadership positions (see Figure C). In 2023, for example, Black, Hispanic, AAPI, and AIAN workers accounted for more than 40% of workers in all job categories at EEO-1 reporting firms, but only about 1 in 5 employees in executive- or senior-level positions. Similarly, less than 1 in 3 workers in mid-level, managerial positions identified as Black, Hispanic, AAPI, or AIAN in 2023.

Figure C

Table 1 presents the 2023 data along with data for 2020—the year several private employers launched DEI initiatives in response to the racial reckoning that followed the murder of George Floyd at the hands of police officers—and 2017. While it is impossible to disentangle DEI from demographic and pandemic effects based on these data alone, we can see changes in the racial composition of employees at EEO-1 reporting firms over these years that are generally consistent with changes in the working-age population shown in Figure A. More importantly, nothing in these statistics points to evidence of systemic “DEI-motivated discrimination” against white workers. Relative to the preceding three years, between 2020 and 2023, there was a larger increase in the share of all people of color employed in executive-/senior- level and first-/mid-level management positions—3.7 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively—but white workers remained significantly overrepresented in these roles. Throughout the entire period, Black and Hispanic workers remained grossly underrepresented relative to their share of all positions.

Table 1

The Trump EEOC’s intentional diversion of attention and resources away from more prevalent forms of discrimination will hurt all workers

Aggregate results alone neither qualify nor disqualify a charge of discrimination against a specific employer. All charges, whether filed by an individual or an EEOC commissioner, are individually investigated— a process involving extensive information gathering and detailed examination of the facts to assess the merits of the charge. The administration’s aggressive search for evidence of “reverse discrimination” diverts the limited resources of an already understaffed and underfunded agency away from investigating more prevalent forms of racial and gender discrimination that are consistent with persistent racial and gender wage gaps and patterns of occupational segregation.

It would be a mistake to assume that Trump and the Republican majority leading the EEOC don’t understand the nature of demographic changes in the U.S. population and labor market. The administration’s campaign against DEI initiatives and accusations of bias against white male workers represent an emboldened assertion of white supremacy to stoke fear and to recast growing racial, ethnic, and gender diversity as a threat to social and economic advantages historically afforded to white men. This is a strategy that has often led to periods of slower economic growth and greater economic inequality. In the end, it not only makes the American workplace less fair, but it also risks lowering the standard of living for all working people and their families. 

Throughout this second term we’ve also seen a steady increase in white supremacist rhetoric and images coming from government officials: Agency-run social media accounts make appeals to the homeland, remigration, and other white nationalist dog-whistle phrases, while the president himself continues to demonize nonwhite immigrants and cities with large minority populations, and to mischaracterize the Civil Rights Movement as harmful to white people.

These actions and rhetoric are not simply poor governance; they follow a historical script that white supremacists in the United States have used for centuries to undermine progress toward equity. Each time, that script sets the stage for policy changes that lead to a massive increase in economic inequality. Here’s the pattern:

1. Establish distrust in progressive goals by raising the specter of racial minorities corrupting and taking advantage of a government that has “overstepped its authority.”
2. Severely curtail government functions by dismantling existing programs directed toward progressive policy goals (e.g., equity, poverty prevention) and allowing others to expire, halting forward progress.
3. Institute methods of targeting and controlling nonwhite populations, increasing economic insecurity, stoking fear, and lowering their political and economic power relative to white peers.

Consider what took place in the half-century following the Civil War, as the United States tried and failed to rebuild itself into a multiracial democracy for the first time:

1. Establish distrust: Disaffected ex-Confederates led campaigns of misinformation alleging that newly elected Black government officials were corrupt and undeserving, that the government itself had overreached by sending federal troops to ensure that Southern states followed the law with respect to racial inclusion, and that allowing Black men the vote presented an existential threat to white men, women, and children. In the West, white supremacists spread similar misinformation about Chinese immigrant workers.
2. Halt forward progress: Federal troops were removed from Southern states, exposing Black families to horrific acts of economic, social, and spiritual violence from white vigilantes; institutions like the Freedmen’s Bureau and Freedman’s Bank were dismantled and allowed to collapse, curtailing progress toward integrating Black families into the U.S economy with dignity.
3. Target and control nonwhite populations: White supremacists in government passed legislation limiting the economic, social, and political rights available to nonwhite Americans, most notably Jim Crow laws and the Chinese Exclusion Act. These policies led to significant economic precarity for nonwhite workers, allowing exploitative systems like sharecropping to thrive and ensuring railroad workers and miners had little recourse to protest poor working conditions.

This reassertion of white supremacy saw the government take a big step back from progressive goals and ushered in one of the most unequal and unstable ages of U.S. economic history: The Gilded Age.

For a more recent example, consider the 40-year-long backlash to racial progress made in the mid-20th century through the efforts of the Civil Rights Movement (beginning with the first Reagan administration in 1980):

1. Establish distrust: Disaffected conservatives employed an intellectual strategy (neoliberalism) designed to cast government as the source of America’s economic woes, rather than a tool that could be used to alleviate them. Neoliberalism recast the social safety net that had been designed to keep poor and working-class families, children, and the elderly out of poverty as a hammock in which lazy, undeserving Black people (especially single Black mothers) could comfortably take advantage of taxpayer dollars.
2. Halt forward progress: Citing the myth of an undeserving, perpetually dependent “underclass,” Republican and Democratic administrations alike took action. They made major cuts to programs designed to alleviate economic hardship, halting progress toward closing racial gaps in poverty because Black families are more likely to be impoverished. The federal government added strict work and income requirements to social programs like food stamps (SNAP) and Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC, eventually replaced by the much less adequate TANF) that decreased their efficacy. The government stripped institutions devoted to enforcing and advancing civil rights like the EEOC and the Commission on Civil Rights of funds and reduced their scope.
3. Target and control nonwhite populations: Beginning in the 1970s the United States embarked on an unprecedented expansion of policing and the carceral state; the development of this mass incarceration led to an explosion of arrests, convictions, and crucially, imprisonment. Nonwhite men were and still are overwhelmingly the targets of this system, with Black incarceration rates six times higher than those of white people. Incarceration serves as a tool of economic stratification that renders Black and brown workers noncompetitive with white workers and severely limits the capacity of Black and brown families to accumulate wealth, alongside a host of other imposed disadvantages.

The wealthiest owners of capital used white supremacy to shape policy decisions such that they could capture a greater share of economic power and resources, influencing government to withdraw resources previously used to support and protect workers and families of all shades. This also set the stage for weakening labor standards, chipping away at workers’ rights to organize, allowing globalization to displace blue-collar workers, and influencing the Fed’s tolerance of excessive unemployment.

Further, as more of our national spending shifted toward law enforcement rather than social welfare, racial targeting increased, poverty was criminalized, and so too did a greater share of income go to the top percentile earners. Significant progress toward racial economic equity—little that there was—has all but ceased since the 1980s.

Figure A shows the raw deal that both Black and white workers have been given since the 1980s. While the workforce became around 84% more productive between 1979 and 2024, workers’ wages grew much more slowly. Typical white workers’ wages only grew 37% over the same period, while Black workers’ wages grew even more slowly at 28.5%.

Figure A

Figure B shows how racial wage inequality increased along with rising corporate power. The lighter line here represents the extent to which workers’ productivity increased faster than their pay (the ratio of net productivity—or output per hour—to total compensation per hour); in other words, the extent to which employers were able to capture a greater share of economic output than workers. As the wage gap between typical Black and white workers increased (from 16.6% in 1979 to 21.6% in 2024, a growth rate of 30%), so too did the ratio between productivity and pay (from 1.6 in 1979 to 2.27 in 2024, a growth rate of 42%). In this view, white supremacy works as a wedge by which the working class is separated, weakening worker power and allowing the productivity-pay ratio to increase.

It took the labor market shock and reset of a global pandemic, and the rapid, expansionary policy response toward it, to finally break the decades-long trend of increasing Black-white wage inequality; the resulting tight labor market saw faster wage growth between 2019–2024 for low-wage workers (who are disproportionately Black and brown) than for any period since 1979, and a drop in the Black-white wage gap from its peak in 2018 at 26.4% to 21.6% in 2024. This relatively rapid reduction in Black-white income inequality provides important context for our current wave of white supremacist backlash.

Figure B

White supremacy has always been employed in the United States as a political economic strategy for maintaining social hierarchy. That hierarchy is consistent both with the assertion of white privilege and with corporate interests. The value in maintaining white supremacy for the interests of wealthy elites is that it complicates class solidarity across racial lines, while also pre-establishing a population of workers who exist along a spectrum of exploitation.

The most exploitable of these workers (e.g. Black, brown, women, and/or poor workers) have little to no recourse for protection nor serious prospects of changing their class position without explicit outside intervention, even across generations. Workers with more proximity to power (e.g. white, male, and/or high-income workers) have access to real social and material benefits that come from their relative position, and so are incentivized to maintain the status quo. Even still, these workers face exploitation and economic precarity as the truly wealthy continue to build capital, and their share of the nation’s income and wealth continues to rise.

The Trump administration’s motivations are clear when viewed through the lens of white supremacist political economy. This framing puts Project 2025 into its proper historical context as a recycled agenda designed to reassert the social and economic privileges of white Americans relative to their Black and brown neighbors, pacifying potential white opposition toward policies that will most enrich the few at their absolute expense. If this historical script is allowed to run its course—that is, if the administration is successful at establishing distrust in the efficacy of government, halting what forward progress we’ve made toward equity and progressive goals, and targeting and controlling nonwhite populations—the final act will be another massive increase in economic inequality and instability, a period in which most American families will suffer.

There is a path forward, however. Progress toward racial equity has always threatened consolidated class power, particularly in the United States. A working-class coalition across racial lines has historically been a dangerous prospect for those invested in maintaining inequality because it creates the possibility of a serious inversion of power, a realization that solidarity could genuinely result in a more equitable distribution of the costs and benefits of production. Building a genuine multiracial democracy in which people from all groups can expect to be treated with dignity and have access to the same economic security and opportunity is a real path toward breaking down inequality run rampant.

Here’s the bottom line. When we see:

• A concerted effort to discredit and defund the important work done by Black and brown women government employees to move us toward equity (Establish distrust)
• The tearing down of historic laws and institutions devoted to providing equal access to opportunity and security to all Americans (Halt forward progress)
• The terrorizing of nonwhite workers and their families in places of work and worship alike (Target and control nonwhite populations)

We must recognize these efforts as intentional ones that lead us all—white workers and their families included—down a path to greater economic inequality, instability, and injustice.

In 2025, Black women’s employment rate fell by 1.4 percentage points to 55.7%. This is one of the sharpest one-year declines in the last 25 years (see Figure A). The decline among Black men and white women was no more than 0.5 percentage points each while employment rose slightly for Hispanic (+0.6 percentage points) and AAPI (+0.4 percentage points) women. At 55.7%, Black women’s employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) was well below the most recent peak of 57.8% in 2023, reflecting employment losses that started in 2024 and accelerated in 2025. These estimates are also available in EPI’s State of Working America Data Library.

Figure A

The decline in Black women’s employment over the last year included exits from the labor force and rising unemployment among remaining jobseekers. Their labor force participation rate dropped from 60.6% in 2024 to 59.7% in 2025 as the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.7%.

A closer look reveals that college-educated Black women experienced the greatest drop in employment and labor force participation rates. As shown in Figure B, the EPOP for Black women with bachelor’s degrees fell by 3.5 percentage points over the last year—a much larger decline than any other education category, including those who are not college graduates. Similarly, the labor force participation rate declined most for Black women bachelor’s degree holders—down 2.3 percentage points in 2025.

Figure B

Large employment losses and labor force departures among college graduates were a direct consequence of the Trump administration implementing massive federal layoffs and buyouts over the last year, a sector where nearly half of Black workers have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata further supports this as a driving factor. Figure C presents changes in the number of Black women employed by self-reported sector and industry of employment between 2024 and 2025. Notably, it shows that the overall net loss in employed Black women was driven entirely by public-sector losses, with most job losses in federal government.

While Black women saw a net increase in private-sector employment in 2025—primarily in the growing education and health services industry—there were net losses in six of the 12 major private-sector industries. Among the net losses, 33% occurred in other services, followed by 25% in manufacturing, 21% in financial activities, and 15% in professional and business services. The other services industry includes establishments primarily engaged in repair and maintenance and personal and laundry services, as well as work for private households and religious, grantmaking, civic, and professional organizations.

To put a finer point on the dominant influence of Black women’s employment losses on rising Black unemployment in 2025, Figure C also shows that Black men reported a net gain in the total number employed. Black men had a much smaller decline in federal government employment and relatively fewer industry-specific private-sector losses.

Figure C

While this analysis offers more details about the decline in Black women’s employment, the biggest looming question remains unanswered: Why do federal and private-sector employment losses seem so targeted to Black women? Whether those losses are an early indication of more widespread job losses to come—or casualties of anti-equity backlash in action—could become clearer in the months ahead.