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In the last two years, Republicans in Tennessee have attempted to push legislation that would violate Plyler to set the stage to challenge the court decision (although neither proposal passed). Last year, the state proposed charging undocumented students tuition for public schools, and this year, Tennessee attempted to pass legislation to track the immigration status of all public school students.

The 1982 ruling of Plyler v. Doe is notable because it stated that the harm of not educating undocumented children would be worse for society than providing a basic education to all children in the U.S. The ruling recognized the huge positive spillovers public education has on the U.S. labor market, public health, and civil society and that leaving immigrant children out of public education would create an “underclass” in U.S. society.

Moreover, if the move to deny public education to children in the U.S. is successful, particularly in pockets of the country where immigrant children are a substantial share of the student population, it will lead to an extraordinarily high cost for the students who remain in public school.

Some school costs are hard to adjust, regardless of the number of students

Across the country, an estimated 17% of school-aged children live with at least one noncitizen adult, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. If these students were to leave suddenly, schools would be left to educate a fewer number of kids without any time to adjust their fixed costs. For example, when Alabama passed an immigration data collection law, more than 13% of Hispanic schoolchildren withdrew from classes.

At first, it would seem that reducing enrollment would reduce both total revenue and the number of students needing educational services proportionately, which should leave the schools’ ability to provide education unaffected. But schools can’t adjust every educational cost quickly: School bus routes still need to circulate to all stops, even if there is one fewer child in need of transit; buildings need to be heated and cooled, even if classroom size goes down; and guidance counselors and support staff are still required to support the remaining students.

School districts will pay more per pupil if student enrollment declines because of immigration enforcement

Since these fixed costs can’t be adjusted in the short run, when total revenue declines due to families’ fears of deportation, districts are stuck paying more per pupil on costs they can’t adjust. Effectively, native-born students who remain in public schools receive no additional benefit when immigrant students are denied services and rights. Districts instead will be paying more on costs that can’t be adjusted and getting less on the costs that can be adjusted for fewer students.

Calculating the cost under two different scenarios

We call all the costs of downward adjustment that occur when enrollment is reduced the fiscal externality. This means the per-pupil funds each district would require to maintain the same level of spending for remaining public school students due to a rapid decline in enrollment. This cost is entirely borne by state and local education budgets and leaves districts unable to deliver the same level of instruction to the remaining public-school pupils.

For districts with a large share of school-aged children in immigrant families, the costs of losing these students could be substantial. Table 1 shows the top-25 school districts, based on the number of K–12 students that are in immigrant families and the corresponding fiscal externality for two scenarios. In the first scenario, half of these students stop attending public school (referred to as the lower bound in the table). In the second scenario, all of these students stop attending public school (referred to as the upper bound in the table).

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The implications of a reversal of Plyler v. Doe or any type of policy restricting immigrant children’s access to public education would be extreme for these districts. In Houston, Texas, where 62% of students in the school district are Hispanic, we estimate that nearly 63,000 students may live in a household with immigrants and as such, might be vulnerable to dropping out of school due to anti-immigration efforts. The lower bound shows the costs if half of these students stopped showing up. Houston School District would have to reduce services by $1,654 for each remaining (and disproportionately native-born) public school student. This decline translates to a total fiscal externality of $268 million a year, or 11% of the total budget for the school district.

The extraordinarily high cost to native-born students of losing students in immigrant families due to anti-immigrant policies highlights the hypocrisy in the anti-immigrant movement. If all students in immigrant families stopped attending public school tomorrow, not only would those students suffer from the lack of public education, but the quality of public education would be much worse for the remaining students in those same schools. In short, no one wins. When the costs are tallied up, it’s clear that these policies are not about improving education quality for native-born students, but instead are malicious attacks on the institution of public education in the U.S.

Since the second Trump administration swept into office in January 2025, it has undertaken a range of damaging and destabilizing actions that have weakened the economy, undermined workers, hurt businesses and consumers, and threatened core elements of our democracy. While Trump has targeted numerous Democratic-led states and cities, the Washington, D.C., region has faced acute and prolonged harms since day one. From the first set of executive actions signed on Inauguration Day, the Trump administration has attacked people and businesses in the capital region repeatedly and intensely. These initial actions announced the president’s dubious claims of authority to fire large segments of the federal workforce, eliminate long-standing federal agencies and programs, and begin a campaign of illegal and inhumane mass deportations.  

The Trump administration’s damaging actions have been enabled and abetted by Republican members of Congress. Their passage of H.R. 1, the bill that the White House has referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), amplifies the administration’s mass deportation agenda and shreds critical health care and food supports for lower-income families to finance tax cuts for the wealthy. This funding bill will only cause more pain in the years ahead for Washington, D.C.-area households and throughout the country.

Congress also passed a federal spending bill that constrained the District of Columbia’s ability to spend its own tax revenue (Koma 2025) and a resolution that may force the district to adopt local tax code changes that match the OBBBA, whether the city wants to or not—changes that will jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars for city programs (D.C. Fiscal Policy Institute 2026).

In this report, we assess the early indicators of the damage of Trump’s actions and their effects on the Washington, D.C., regional economy, with particular attention to effects on workers and the labor market. We focus on this region due to its prominence as an early target of the Trump administration, in part due to its large federal workforce. Additionally, the district’s unique status as a non-state means that its leaders have far less legal authority to resist Trump’s interference than other target areas do.

Throughout this report, unless otherwise indicated, the data describe economic conditions for the Washington, D.C., metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which includes the District of Columbia, four nearby counties in Maryland, six cities and 11 counties in northern Virginia, and one county in West Virginia. We also refer to this region as the DMV (Washington, D.C.; Maryland; and Virginia). While we do not yet have the requisite data to fully and precisely document all the effects of the administration’s actions, we can see clear signals that the regional economy is already struggling, with more severe impacts likely to register in the data soon.

We then explore some of the factors that make other regions particularly vulnerable to significant economic harm from the Trump administration’s agenda. These include counties with large concentrations of federal workers, areas where federal transfer income (such as Medicaid and Social Security) makes up a significant portion of the region’s economic base, and places with significant immigrant populations. Though Trump has largely targeted prominent, Democratic-led areas, many of the regions most susceptible to the harmful economic consequences of the administration’s actions are rural counties, frequently represented in Congress by Republicans.

Trump’s actions in Washington, D.C., have led to reduced employment and rising unemployment

The clearest sign of the harm that the Trump administration’s actions have done to the Washington, D.C., regional economy is the substantial drop in the region’s employment rate. Based on EPI analysis of Current Population Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from December 2024 to December 2025, the share of the regional working-age population with a job fell by 3.2 percentage points.1 As shown in Table 1, this compares with a decline of just 0.4 percentage points for the country over the same period. Among prime-age workers (those ages 25–54), the share employed in the DMV fell by 2.7 percentage points, compared with a decline of just 0.1 percentage points for the country overall.

This dramatic drop in regional employment is a direct result of the Trump administration’s relentless attacks on federal government workers, cuts to federal programs and agencies, and their cascading effects on connected regional industries. Prior to Trump’s taking office, federal employees made up 11.2% of the metro area’s total workforce (BLS-CES-SAE 2025).2 Between the end of 2024 and 2025, federal employment in the DMV region fell by more than 53,800 jobs (-14.2%) (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).3 These losses reverberated through the regional economy as affected households pulled back on spending, and many may have even opted to move, as data show the DMV region had the largest increase in home sale listings of any major metro last year (Brookings Institution 2026).

These significant cuts to federal employment, though highly damaging on their own, are only the first layer of the administration’s harm on the regional labor market. The DMV has a non-federal workforce of over three million people (BLS-CES-SAE 2026), many of whom work at firms that consult with, contract with, are funded by, or are otherwise connected to the government.4 The Trump administration has terminated thousands of grants to scientific research institutions (Kozlov, Tollefson, and Garisto 2026) and frozen or delayed funding for tens of thousands of nonprofit organizations, causing those targeted to limit operations or lay off staff (Tomasko et al. 2025). These cuts have also shrunk the funding pool for nonprofit groups, causing budget challenges even for those not previously receiving federal funding, as they must compete with groups previously funded through federal programs that are now scrambling to fill gaps with private support (Barrett 2025). The administration has also moved to cancel contracts with any company that maintains a commitment to DEI standards (Singh 2026). Although these cuts affect organizations everywhere, the DMV is disproportionately vulnerable to the economic harms of attacks on this sector as it has one of the highest concentrations of nonprofits in the country (Friesenhahn 2025). This is evident in the region’s slight dip (-0.3%) in private-sector employment from December 2024 to December 2025, a change from the consistent, albeit slowing, growth that had marked the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the national level, private-sector employment experienced slow but still positive change (0.5%) over the same period (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).5

The widespread impact of the administration’s actions can be seen in the breadth of employment declines across racial, ethnic, gender, and age groups in the region. As shown in Table 1, the employment rate fell by at least 2 percentage points for every demographic category of workers in the DMV. Notably, young workers under age 25 (-4.3 percentage points), workers age 55 and older (-3.3 percentage points), men (-3.5 percentage points), and Black workers (-5.9 percentage points) all experienced drops in their employment rates larger than the regional average. For older workers, the above-average decline likely reflects, at least in part, the firings and retirements of many federal employees, including many who had been near retirement age and opted into the so-called “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation program. For young workers, the administration’s funding and programmatic cuts directly reduced many traditional Beltway early-career opportunities (internships, fellowships), while weakness in the broader regional economy simultaneously forced area employers to pull back on entry-level positions.

Still, not all groups have been equally affected by Trump’s actions. As Table 1 shows, Black workers in the DMV region have suffered the largest employment declines, with the share employed falling by 5.9 percentage points in 2025. This is nearly triple the employment drop experienced by white workers (2.0 percentage points) in the region and, notably, more than seven times the employment drop of Black workers throughout the country overall (0.8 percentage points). Again, this is a direct consequence of the administration’s attacks on the federal workforce. Black workers have long tended to make up a larger share of the public sector than they do in the private sector—both in the DMV and across the country. This is because the public sector has historically been a pathway to the middle class for workers of color who face labor market discrimination in the private sector (Maye and Marvin 2025).

Trump’s massive cuts to federal employment have also rapidly undone what had been considerable progress in shrinking the regional Black-white employment gap. Figure A shows the employment rate of DMV workers, overall and by race/ethnicity, since the end of 2018. The rapid drop in the Black employment rate since the start of President Trump’s second term is striking, bringing the regional Black employment rate back down to its pandemic-era low. It is also notable that before that drop began, Black workers in the region were employed at essentially the same rate as their white counterparts—the only time in the last two decades when that occurred. These losses in employment will exacerbate existing racial and gender inequity across wages, poverty, and unemployment (Markoff and Zielinski 2026; Zielinski 2025; Busette and Elizondo 2022).

Recent increases in the DMV’s overall unemployment rate underscore the damage Trump is doing to the region. The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped more than a full percentage point, from 3.1% in January 2025 to 4.4% in January 2026—more than four times the increase in the national figure. (Importantly, this increase understates the weakening of the area labor market, as the BLS estimates the DMV labor force shrank by 3% over the same period—meaning that many workers who would have been counted as unemployed simply left the area labor force.) For comparison, the national non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by less than half a percentage point, moving from 4.4% in January 2025 to 4.7% in January 2026 (BLS-LAUS 2026).

These numbers do not capture the full extent of the economic downturn in the DMV area, nor can they give us precise insight into where the pain has been most acutely felt. The administration’s violent deportation agenda, for example, will lead to a drop in immigrant and U.S.-born Hispanic workers’ employment, but resulting changes in Hispanic employment rates may be muted by the corresponding shrinking of the overall Hispanic population (Zipperer 2025). In other words, while the overall Hispanic population in the U.S. may fall dramatically in coming years, the ratio of remaining employed workers to remaining total population may stay somewhat consistent. This will mask the true scale of the economic and social harm being done to immigrant communities in the DMV and across the country.

It is also difficult to fully quantify how the deployment and continued presence of National Guard troops, violent immigration actions, and other authoritarian, fear-inducing tactics have impacted D.C.-area businesses, workers, and families, particularly in neighborhoods with predominately Black and Latino populations. Early data show regional declines in tourism, consumer spending, and foot traffic; harder to capture are the emotional and long-term economic consequences (Montgomery 2025; Hadden Loh and Haskins 2025; Sachs and Cocco 2025). Other recent analyses estimate similar economic harms in cities where targeted federal immigration enforcement actions have been aggressively deployed (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). A full accounting of the Trump administration’s harms on the Washington, D.C., region will take years to document.

Other localities should brace for similar consequences

Some of the Trump administration’s actions and their acute consequences are unique to the DMV, a function of the region’s high concentration of federal employees and government contractors, as well as the District of Columbia’s lack of statehood and full constitutional rights. However, the anti-government attacks the administration has unleashed on DMV-area households, workers, and businesses will have cascading consequences for communities throughout the country. The effects of the administration’s authoritarian attacks on the civil service, democratic institutions, and immigrants (Human Rights Watch 2026) that first registered across the DMV should be viewed as a preview of the consequences that will be felt in other regions. While no locality will be spared, regions particularly at risk include those with large shares of government workers (especially federal workers, but state and local government workers too), localities in which federal funding and social safety net programs make up a large portion of total area income, and those with large immigrant populations.

Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce will harm communities that rely on their employment

The day Trump returned to power in January 2025, he began attacking the federal workforce, first by moving to reclassify tens of thousands of federal employees to make it easier to fire and replace them with political loyalists (EPI 2026c), and then by stripping more than one million federal workers of their collective bargaining rights (EPI 2025a). The Trump White House subsequently worked feverishly to slash federal employment, attempting large and chaotic reductions in force, shuttering entire agencies, and coercing tens of thousands of staff to resign, among many other attacks (Poydock 2025). As of March 2026, the administration’s actions have reduced nationwide federal government employment by over 350,000 (11.7%) since January 2025 (Gould 2026).

Though federal workers make up a sizeable share of the DMV’s workforce, over 80% of federal workers live outside the region (Partnership for Public Service 2024). For instance, in Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico—states that are home to large swaths of federal and Native land, military bases, and federal research institutions—federal workers make up at least 4.5% of total employment (EPI 2025c). Within states, federal workers tend to be concentrated in specific localities. For instance, in Apache County, Arizona, which is largely made up of the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache Reservations, lands that extend beyond county lines, the federal government employs 12% of the county’s workers, more than double the next most significant county for federal worker employment in the state (EPI 2025c). There are 22 U.S. counties, spread across the South, Midwest, and West Census regions, where federal workers comprise at least 10% of the county’s workforce (see Table 2).

In these counties and elsewhere, federal workers are the backbone of the regional economy, both through the essential services they provide and through their contributions to the local economy. Trump’s attacks simultaneously threaten federal workers’ livelihoods and the economic health of communities in which these workers’ spending on goods and services makes up a large share of economic activity in the region. In Apache County, Arizona, civilian government workers’ earnings comprise 11.7% of total economic activity in the county (see Table 3)—roughly the same as their share of overall county employment. However, in some counties, federal employees’ earnings are a disproportionate share of the regional economic base. For instance, in Leavenworth County, Kansas, where federal employees make up 10.0% of employment (Leavenworth has a large federal prison), federal civilian earnings comprise 22.1% of total income in the county.

The effects from lost federal jobs and income in these regions could be devastating. Some of these communities are places that have already faced historic disinvestment and in which there are few local employment opportunities that can match the quality of federal government jobs. These jobs are historically stable, good quality, union jobs that offer a pathway to the middle class, particularly for workers without a college education.6

Regions highly dependent on federal revenue will also suffer from a reduction in services and a loss of income

Beyond the harm to localities from reductions in the federal workforce, localities that are particularly reliant on federal government revenue and services will bear the consequences of Trump’s actions most acutely, though no locality will be spared from harm. For example, the Trump administration has announced or considered $23 billion in cuts to federal clean energy projects in nearly every state (CATF 2025) and $8 billion in cuts to colleges and universities that will impact every state’s economy (Bedekovics and Ragland 2025). Trump’s 2025 budget bill also made massive cuts to federal safety net programs that millions of low-income households rely on in order to finance tax cuts for the wealthiest households and corporations.

Funds from federal programs such as SNAP, Medicaid, and other social programs not only help struggling families make ends meet, they also comprise a significant share of a locality’s “economic base,” the amount of money circulating in that region, as shown by sociologist Robert Manduca in a recent working paper (2025). Indeed, an often-overlooked benefit of Medicaid coverage is its role as a source of income for low-income households (money they would have had to spend on medical care in the absence of Medicaid). For the bottom 20% of households in the U.S., Medicaid comprised 70% of their total money income, based on recent data from the Congressional Budget Office (Bivens, Wething, and Morrissey 2025). In fact, government transfers such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid collectively made up 40% of the economic base of U.S. regions in 2022 (Manduca 2025). Substantial cuts to government social programs that support low-income households could reduce the economic base of these localities, at a scale equivalent, in many cases, to the loss of entire private industries in those areas.

Without deliberate intervention by state lawmakers to offset lost federal revenues, localities in every state face dire economic losses, but states particularly reliant on government transfers will suffer most. For instance, take Clay County, West Virginia, which is represented in Congress by Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV01), who voted in support of Trump’s budget bill (Miller 2025). Clay County’s poverty rate is more than double the national rate, and its per capita income is half the national amount (U.S. Census 2024a). Of the 10 U.S. counties that rely most on each of the largest federal social insurance programs (Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, and Social Security) as a share of their economic base, Clay is the only county in the country to show up three times (see Table 4). Federal government transfers in the form of Medicare, SNAP, and Social Security payments comprise 57% of Clay County’s economic base, 20 times the share comprised by the earnings of every private industry in the county combined. Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia all have at least three counties that are ranked in the top 10 in the country for their reliance on a given social safety net program as a share of the county’s economic base (see Table 4).

Localities that have significant shares of federal workers and rely heavily on federal government transfers may face particularly significant consequences as a result of Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce and the Republican budget bill’s cuts to essential social safety net programs. For example, in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, and Apache County, Arizona, federal government workers make up 16.1% and 12.0% of all workers in the county, respectively (EPI 2025b). At the same time, both counties are ranked in the top-10 counties most reliant on federal government transfers—Apache is #2 for Medicaid, and Rio Arriba is #10 for SNAP. In Apache County, federal government transfers account for three-quarters (76.9%) of the county’s economic base, and the earnings of federal government civilian workers account for 11.7%—the Navajo Nation Tribal Government is the county’s largest employer (NACOG 2023). Meanwhile, private earnings account for a mere 2.8% of the county’s economy. In Apache, Trump’s cuts to both the federal workforce and federal government programs mean that the federal government may be unable to fulfill its legal obligations to tribal communities (Brown 2025) that have faced decades of disinvestment and depressed economic outcomes resulting from historic land theft and forced assimilation. Apache County’s poverty rate of 31.2% (AZ Economics 2026) is nearly triple the national rate of 11.1% in 2023 (Shrider 2024).

Trump’s anti-immigrant crackdown and deportation agenda hurt localities with large immigrant populations

Trump has launched a campaign of terror against immigrant communities, communities of color, and those who stand with them. Last summer, Trump federalized local police and deployed thousands of federal troops to diverse cities with large immigrant populations (Kim 2025). Though Washington, D.C., may have experienced the most visible federal troop presence, a function of the district’s lack of statehood and the president’s unchecked authority to mobilize the National Guard there (Dallas 2025), Los Angeles was the first city Trump targeted after public opposition to aggressive immigration raids (Kim 2025). It was soon followed by Washington, D.C.; Memphis, Tennessee; Portland, Oregon; New Orleans, Louisiana; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Portland, Maine.

These attacks are characteristic of an authoritarian playbook that includes forcing the leaders of diverse, opposition-led communities to bend to the strongman government’s will (McManus, Benson, and Herman 2024). Minneapolis, home to a large immigrant population, was subjected to an unprecedented immigration crackdown that drew widespread protests (Boone 2026). During “Operation Metro Surge,” as it was called, federal immigration enforcement officials made 4,000 arrests and killed two U.S. citizens. Though the true toll of this violent operation may never be fully quantified, initial economic data show clear cause for concern. A recent analysis estimated that Trump’s immigration crackdown has led to a 2.9% decline in consumer spending in Minnesota over a single month—the equivalent of the state’s economy losing $626 million (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). Relative to overall consumer spending, the food and accommodation sector (which employs a large share of immigrant workers) saw the most significant decline in January 2026—3.8% or a $46 million reduction in economic activity. Researchers also estimated that nearly 3% of workers in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul region were unable to work during the occupation, resulting in a loss of over $100 million in wages (Sojourner and Rosenthal 2026).

Trump’s deportation agenda will continue to destabilize local communities and result in job losses for immigrant and U.S.-born residents alike (Zipperer 2025). Though immigrants live in counties across the U.S., coastal urban areas tend to have the largest shares of foreign-born residents. Counties with the largest foreign-born populations include Miami-Dade, Florida; Queens, New York; Aleutians, Alaska; and Hudson, New Jersey (see Table 5). Counties with relatively large shares of immigrants may see particularly acute harms from aggressive immigration enforcement.

Communities face overlapping economic threats from attacks on federal workers, the social safety net, and immigrants, but state and local lawmakers can resist them.

The Trump administration’s attacks on the federal workforce, the social safety net, and immigrant communities are designed to exacerbate economic precarity in many communities that are already struggling (Bivens 2026). The implementation of Trump’s authoritarian agenda in the DMV region may be the first, clearest, and in some cases most direct manifestation of its harms, but other localities across the country—particularly those with large federal workforces, those that are heavily dependent on federal revenue and those with sizeable immigrant populations—are far from immune, and many will suffer as much, if not more, from this agenda.

While state and local leaders cannot stop federal attacks, they do have the power to resist Trump’s agenda by improving state labor standards (EPI 2026b), advancing protections for immigrant workers (Díaz and Whitaker 2026), investing in the public-sector workforce (Bivens and Shierholz 2026), and using progressive tax policies (Austin and Davis 2025) to stabilize funding for critical social programs and other investments that workers, families, and communities need.

Notes

1. Throughout this report, unless explicitly noted, the source for all employment rate data is the authors’ analysis of Current Population Survey data (EPI 2026a). We compare an average of calendar year 2025 with calendar year 2024 in order to have adequate sample sizes for the noted demographic groups.

2. Employment level by industry and sector data come from the authors’ analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) State and Metro Area (SAE) data.

3. These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. A quarterly comparison of 2025Q4 to 2024Q4 finds roughly the same results—employment fell by 52,600 jobs (13.9%). The quarterly analysis omits October in both years to maintain an apples-to-apples comparison, accounting for missing data due to the government shutdown that began in October 2025 and the subsequent lapse in Bureau of Labor Statistics funding.

4. The non-federal workforce includes private sector workers as well as state and local government employees.

5. These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. Quarterly comparisons of 2025 Q4 to 2024 Q4 produce similar results—private sector employment fell by 0.1% in the DMV and grew by 0.7% nationally. The quarterly analysis follows the methodology outlined in note 2.

6. On average, federal workers with advanced degrees typically earn less in wages and total compensation than their private-sector counterparts. Federal workers without an advanced degree typically earn more than their private-sector counterparts and have access to retirement benefits that have become less common in the private sector (CBO 2024).

References

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Rising authoritarianism and the need to upend the failed Southern economic development model

For generations, Southern politicians backed by powerful business interests have promoted a Southern economic development model—characterized by low wages, regressive taxation, lax environmental regulations, a weak social safety net, and vicious opposition to unions—while claiming such policies will attract business and thereby generate regional economic gains. But data actually show a grim reality. The South lags all other regions on most indicators of economic health including job growth and wages, and Southern workers and their families experience significantly higher rates of poverty than in other parts of the country (Childers 2024a).

The truth is that this Southern economic development model was never designed to benefit most Southerners; rather, it is historically rooted in efforts of white plantation owners to retain their wealth following emancipation and ensure continued access to the labor of Black people for as little compensation as possible (Childers 2025). Foundational to these efforts was an authoritarian approach to state governance that suppressed popular democracy and worker organizing—an approach that also sanctioned prison labor, sharecropping, a century of Jim Crow laws, lynching, and other forms of state-sponsored terror and exploitation. Until partially challenged by federal legal and policy interventions won by post-WWII civil rights movements, many Southern states for decades held elections that served merely to provide a cover of legitimacy to one-party rule of white, wealthy elites—functionally excluding Black voters from the electorate and blocking working-class constituencies from any meaningful participation in governance (Mickey 2015; Perez 2024; Mast 2025).

Today, the Trump administration’s increasingly authoritarian actions echo this troubling Southern history. At their foundation, the administration’s approaches to bypassing constitutional checks and balances—while rolling back civil rights, worker rights, and environmental protections; terrorizing immigrant communities; deploying military troops in U.S. cities; and attempting to engineer election outcomes via gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression—are rooted in authoritarian models developed and tested in the U.S. South, and that Black, brown, and immigrant communities across the country are no stranger to.

Recent attempts to terminate federal employee collective bargaining agreements, for example, are familiar to public employees in Southern states for whom collective bargaining has long been banned or severely restricted. The Trump administration’s use of military-style policing in communities across the country echoes Southern histories of weaponizing law enforcement (or National Guard troops) to suppress organizing and instill fear, while prioritizing the expansion of the carceral state over investments in housing, education, and public services. Trump’s efforts to override the authority of state officials mirror Southern state uses of abusive preemption laws to strip policymaking authority from local governments. And administration attempts to halt clean energy investments and environmental protections threaten to repeat harms familiar in Black and brown communities in the South, where corporations have insisted on lax environmental regulations that allow them to degrade air, water, and climate quality, while profiting from the exploitation of local natural resources and labor.

Seizing opportunities to reverse decades of anti-worker, anti-democratic policymaking in the South at a moment of rising authoritarianism in the U.S. is a daunting and unavoidably urgent challenge. It will require robust new forms of multiracial organizing and labor-community coalition building across a broad set of industries in the South. Labor-community coalitions can leverage community benefits agreements (CBAs) as a powerful tool to transform economic power relations in Southern workplaces and communities. Because CBAs are private agreements between labor-community coalitions and project owners, they do not rely on government action and can therefore shape economic outcomes of major projects even in otherwise hostile political environments. CBAs have traditionally been fought for and won by labor and community groups coming together and building necessary public pressure to hold developers, corporations, and elected leaders accountable for ensuring that public investments in major new developments truly benefit workers and communities.

In this report, we analyze the potential for labor-community coalitions to pursue strong CBAs that secure significant economic benefits for Southern manufacturing workers and communities, drawing on examples of existing agreements to model potential impacts. We examine the scale of recent public investments in Southern manufacturing and examine how strong CBAs on major publicly-subsidized private projects could improve the quality of newly created construction and production jobs; open up pathways to unionization; ensure equitable hiring and training opportunities for local residents; and address community needs such as child care, affordable housing, and natural resource protection.

We contend that upending the failed Southern economic development model and the authoritarian structures that underpin it will require building new forms of labor and community power to increase union density in the South. Well-known research shows that unions promote economic equality and help workers win improvements in pay, benefits, and working conditions (Economic Policy Institute 2021). But unions also powerfully affect people’s lives outside of work. They help foster solidarity, increase democratic participation, enable working-class communities to shape economic policies affecting their lives, and serve as a counterweight to corporate power in our economy and democracy (McNicholas et al. 2025). Historically, unions have been engines of resistance to entrenched and undemocratic power—mobilizing working people to challenge inequality, defend civil rights, and push back against authoritarianism in all its forms. For all these reasons, strengthening labor-community coalitions and pathways to unionization in growing Southern industrial sectors is not just good economic policy—it is also a democratic imperative amid national authoritarian backsliding.

Worker and community power can ensure new manufacturing investments yield good jobs and community benefits

The latest wave of manufacturing growth in the South presents both opportunities and pitfalls for workers and communities. Southern states continue to lure businesses—including large manufacturing facilities—with promises of low corporate tax rates, low wages, lax regulations, and massive public subsidies. The automotive manufacturing industry has been a key recipient of public subsidies, receiving billions of dollars from Southern states in recent decades (Childers 2024a; Todd 2021). This system of low taxation and corporate giveaways starves other essential public goods, like education and social safety net programs (Mast 2025b). Likewise, weak or nonexistent environmental regulations have contributed to toxic sites and resource degradation that disproportionately affect Black and brown families, reflecting often intentional decisions to site hazardous facilities in low-income communities of color (Bergman 2019).

Some announced manufacturing projects have been cancelled or reduced in size after the Trump administration’s slashing of federal supports for strategic industries, but many projects launched during the Biden administration continue to move forward. These manufacturing investments, both in traditional industries and nascent ones such as electric vehicle (EV) and EV battery manufacturing, are spurring significant job growth in some Southern communities. Yet past experience shows that new investments and resulting jobs are unlikely to generate economic benefits for most Southerners unless local residents are able to ensure that developers and corporations respect workers’ rights, protect local natural resources, and contribute a fair share toward addressing priority community needs.

Community benefits agreements can be powerful vehicles for communities to secure lasting local economic benefits from major industrial development, at both new and existing facilities. A CBA is a legally enforceable contract between a private developer or company and a local coalition—typically made up of labor, community, faith, environmental, and other grassroots organizations—that details how a project will benefit workers and the community, and in turn how the community will support the project (including via potential public investment). Benefits spelled out in a CBA can include commitments to strong labor standards; respect for workers’ rights to organize; equitable workforce recruitment, training, and hiring practices; affordable housing; environmental protections; or a broad range of other community-identified priorities. CBAs are a well-developed model for responsible community development—so far mostly, but not entirely, in regions outside the South—and have been used for many different types of major projects including sports stadiums, events centers, manufacturing plants, airports, transit projects, and more (WRI n.d.).

CBAs can likewise mitigate risks for project developers by ensuring local project support and addressing important concerns early on, whereas failure to engage local communities in major development decisions can otherwise lead to strong community opposition, interruption of development, obstacles to obtaining necessary siting permits or rezoning approvals, or significant legal costs. In an example from June 2024, developers shelved plans for a $1.3 billion data center in Indiana after facing significant local opposition over environmental concerns (Fazili et al. 2025).

Because a CBA is a private, legally binding agreement, it does not require government action and can be used to shape outcomes of major projects even in contexts (as in most of the South) where state legislators have preempted local governments from establishing their own job quality or environmental standards (EPI 2025a). That being said, state and local governments can still have a role in facilitating, negotiating, or enforcing community benefits. Cities like Detroit and Cleveland have ordinances requiring developers of projects using public resources to engage in a community benefits plan process (City of Detroit n.d.; City of Cleveland n.d.). In 2005, Atlanta passed an ordinance specifying worker and community benefits for the Beltline redevelopment (WRI 2025). However, government involvement in community benefits plans does not guarantee strong agreements on its own. A strong labor-community coalition remains essential for securing meaningful community benefits.

Another key strength of a CBA is that it can set standards across all stages of a project’s development to ensure long-term benefits for the community at large. Private developers or public entities sometimes negotiate Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) or Community Workforce Agreements (CWAs) with building trades unions and community partners to set wages, working conditions, and timelines for the construction phase of a complex development project. A CBA can be negotiated alongside a PLA to also ensure pathways to quality jobs for local residents during the operational phases of a project, including any future expansions of the facility or additions to its workforce. A CBA can also secure commitments to build affordable housing, strengthen environmental standards, and provide other benefits to the community such as child care, public parks, or other community spaces.

To be successful, a CBA must also include defined enforcement mechanisms that hold all parties to the agreement accountable. It must clearly establish the obligations of each party, metrics for measuring progress, and ongoing monitoring of compliance with the agreement’s provisions (Last 2025; PWF and CBLC 2016). If the company or the coalition fails to make good-faith efforts on the agreement’s commitments, an arbitration process is initiated. While monitoring of the agreement is an ongoing responsibility of all members of the coalition, providing a pathway for workers to organize in the operational phase of a project is of particular importance. A newly established union at the project site is well-positioned to monitor the commitments of the CBA and hold the company accountable over the long term.

Organizers and advocates should be clear-eyed that while strong CBAs can yield powerful economic outcomes, such agreements are by no means easy to win. There are generally no legal requirements for a particular company or developer to recognize or engage with a labor-community coalition, much less to agree to negotiate and implement a CBA. Building the broad-based, durable coalitions and leverage necessary to compel private interests to engage in CBA negotiations (and then to implement and enforce the terms of a CBA) is unavoidably a challenging, long-term, resource-intensive organizing project. And like any worthwhile organizing, the formation of strong, durable labor-community coalitions is itself a key outcome of successful CBA campaigns. Vastly expanding the capacity of broad-based coalitions and labor, faith, environmental, and other grassroots organizations to gradually build community and worker power in Southern communities is the most essential ingredient for transforming existing power imbalances and, ultimately, upending the failed Southern economic development model.

Indeed, recent initiatives to win CBAs in Southern states have proven so threatening to some corporate interests that they have sought to undermine them. In 2025, Tennessee Republicans passed legislation prohibiting any company that enters into a CBA from receiving state economic development funds—aiming to create obstacles to replication of a highly successful CBA covering Nashville’s soccer stadium, and to discourage a coalition of West Tennessee residents and allied groups calling on Ford and SK Innovation to negotiate a CBA covering its massive BlueOval electric vehicle and battery manufacturing complex (Abrams 2025). In Tennessee and elsewhere, however, labor-community coalitions are nonetheless continuing to organize to ensure that massive, publicly subsidized new facilities yield good jobs and community benefits.

A new wave of Southern manufacturing is an opportunity to transform working conditions in growing industries—and across the South

Growth in Southern manufacturing industries presents a significant opportunity for labor-community coalitions to shape labor standards and community benefits in new plants and facilities—and to shape economic outcomes for generations of Southern workers to come. In recent years, the South has seen a wave of manufacturing investments. Between 2017 and 2023, manufacturing construction doubled in the East South Central Census division (Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi) (O’Brien 2023). The West South Central division (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas) has the highest amount of manufacturing construction spending of any division in the U.S. These investments are part of a long-term trend of manufacturing industries locating in the South, which in recent years was accelerated by large federal investments through the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and CHIPS and Science Act. These federal investments included both direct public subsidies and tax credits to businesses that invested in key clean energy manufacturing industries such as the production of batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind energy products.

In contrast to the typical economic development approach of many Southern states, some recent federal investments have included incentives meant to encourage strong labor standards on projects receiving public funds. While the future of many of these investments (and accompanying incentives) is now uncertain, the U.S. has in the past two years experienced its largest investment in clean energy manufacturing ever, and much of that has occurred in Southern states.{{1}} Since the third quarter of 2023, more than $125 billion worth of clean energy manufacturing investments were announced across Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas (CET 2025). Advancing even a portion of these projects would result in thousands of jobs for Southern workers.

Independent of the future of federal support for clean energy manufacturing, the South will likely continue to be the largest manufacturing employer of all U.S. regions. Figure A shows manufacturing employment by region in the United States since 1990. While manufacturing employment overall has fallen during the last three decades, the South has retained the largest share of manufacturing employment of any region. In 2024, 35% of U.S. manufacturing employment was in the South. Furthermore, since 2010, manufacturing employment in the South has grown by 17%, the quickest growth of any region.

Figure A

Manufacturing jobs are often considered to be well-paid, benefit-providing “middle-class” jobs, but there is nothing inherent to the sector that determines their quality. Manufacturing jobs in some industries became “good jobs” thanks to relatively high levels of unionization during the mid-20th century, which improved wages, benefits, and working conditions (Bayard et al. 2024; Rhinehart and McNicholas 2020). As Figure B shows, unionization in manufacturing has fallen in all regions since 1983, but the South has almost without exception had the lowest unionization rate of any region.

Conservative Southern policymakers have long been hostile to union organizing. For example, every Southern state except Maryland and Delaware has passed anti-union so-called right-to-work (RTW) laws, which make it harder for workers to form, join, and sustain unions. Southern states like Florida and Arkansas were among the first to pass such laws in the 1940s, amid a wave of big business backlash against new federal labor laws and white supremacist campaigns to maintain racial hierarchies and suppress multiracial worker organizing. RTW laws suppress unionization rates and, as a result, have driven down wages for both union and nonunion workers alike across the South (Sherer and Gould 2025; Childers 2023).

Figure B

In 2025, Southern manufacturing had a 6.7% unionization rate—slightly below the national unionization rate for private-sector workers (6.8%). Unionization in Southern manufacturing grew by more than a percentage point between 2024 and 2025, a notable one-year reversal of the industry’s long-standing unionization decline, consistent with overall union gains in the South (McNicholas, Poydock, and Shierholz 2026). Nevertheless, Southern manufacturing’s unionization rate remains well below the Midwest’s (11.2%), the region where manufacturing is the most heavily unionized. Unions have a strong impact on job quality because they leverage worker power collectively to raise wages, win benefits like health care and retirement, and enact other meaningful workplace improvements, such as improved health and safety standards. These benefits can extend beyond unionized workers themselves, helping set standards across a workplace, and with enough density, across an industry.

As unionization declines in an industry or region, so does job quality. For instance, as unionization rates have fallen in auto manufacturing, the pay advantage for auto workers compared with the median worker has declined significantly (Barrett and Bivens 2021). Figure C demonstrates how this relationship holds across regions in 2025. Manufacturing jobs in the South have a pay advantage of 7%, the lowest of any region. Southern manufacturing workers also experience the lowest median hourly pay of any region ($24.41).{{2}}

Figure C

The Southern economic development model clearly hurts the region’s workers by denying them their right to organize and suppressing their wages, but there are harmful spillover effects for their communities as well. Corporate tax breaks with no strings attached provide billions of dollars to corporations that could otherwise be used to invest in schools and other essential government services. These types of tax breaks might be worthy of consideration if manufacturing employers were required to create high-quality jobs for local workers and make long-term investments in local community development needs (i.e., housing, infrastructure, education, etc.). Without such protections, they are simply taxpayer-funded giveaways that often drain the very resources needed to develop the local workforce recruited by large new facilities.

Southern states enact little to no regulation of workplace safety or environmental pollution. This results in unsafe workplaces with greater levels of injury and death (Childers 2024a). Environmental pollution from manufacturing sites can negatively affect public health by contaminating water, air, and soil. New manufacturing investments also can mean significant changes to the demand for housing in a community. A new plant or factory can drive up the cost of living for nearby residents without yielding any economic benefits to a local community. Labor, community, and environmental groups need to collaborate on shared solutions to effectively address these intertwined challenges.

Labor-community coalitions can obtain commitments that ensure “economic development” means shared prosperity for all

Labor-community coalitions organizing around manufacturing projects can secure commitments that offer direct economic benefits to workers and communities, while also establishing groundwork for the growth of worker and community power in the area. While a campaign to win a CBA can be the impetus for forming a local labor-community coalition, the alignment and relationships built through this shared work can lead to longer-term, sustainable coalitions capable of transforming local and state power relationships.

The following section analyzes a set of commitments that can be included in a CBA for a manufacturing project. The CBA framework is flexible and allows for the inclusion of many different types of commitments prioritized by particular groups of workers, community members, and environmental groups. This report focuses on key types of commitments including union neutrality agreements, living wage floors, equitable workforce development practices (such as local or targeted hire policies and programs to expand pathways to apprenticeship training), affordable housing provisions, child care benefits, and environmental protections. Each type of commitment is analyzed in terms of its economic impacts and effectiveness in reshaping local economic development to ensure that public investments generate broadly shared community benefits.

The construction phase and Project Labor Agreements (PLA)

This report mostly focuses on community benefits for workers during the operational phase of a manufacturing plant. Nevertheless, it is just as vital to set high labor standards during the construction phase. Strong community benefits agreements are ideally developed in tandem with strong project construction labor standards set via project labor agreements (PLAs). A PLA is a multiparty agreement between a project owner and a coalition of labor unions that sets out labor standards and dispute resolution procedures to promote stability and efficiency on complex infrastructure projects while also ensuring the project will generate good jobs. PLAs ensure that construction projects run smoothly, are safer, and pay workers fairly (Mangundayao, McNicholas, and Poydock 2022). By setting negotiated wage and benefit levels for each type of work on a project, PLAs level the playing field in highly competitive construction bidding processes; they ensure that contractors base bids on their ability to deliver on quality and efficiency, rather than low-ball cost estimates that reflect intent to pay substandard wages or cut corners on safety. By standardizing wage and benefit levels and taking them out of the competition in the bidding process, PLAs incentivize the use of skilled union labor, which is 14% more productive than nonunionized construction work (McFadden, Santosh, and Shetty 2022). PLAs typically set wages, fringe benefits, and working conditions but can also include requirements to utilize certain numbers of apprentices, hire locally or from certain target worker populations, and/or provide child care or other benefits that open up pathways to good union construction jobs for members of underrepresented groups.

Several of the types of standards for construction workers typically included in a PLA have analogous labor standards in the operational phase. For instance, a CBA can secure commitments for local or targeted hiring and the development of registered apprenticeship programs in a manufacturing facility, extending equitable recruitment and high-quality training requirements that a PLA typically sets for construction into the operational phase of a project.

Removing obstacles to unionization: Neutrality and labor peace agreements

Protecting workers’ freedom to unionize has historically been key to turning manufacturing jobs into good jobs. This remains just as true today. However, like workers across the country, Southern manufacturing workers continue to face formidable obstacles—including weak labor laws, powerful anti-union corporations, and hostile politicians—to exercising their legally protected rights to form or join a union. Employers are charged with violating federal labor law in more than 40% of union elections and spend more than $400 million a year on “union avoidance” consultants (McNicholas et al. 2019; McNicholas et al. 2023). Because existing weak labor laws do not effectively deter employers from union busting, these tactics are treated by many employers as a normal cost of doing business—stacking the deck unfairly against workers seeking to exercise their rights to organize and collectively bargain.

Union neutrality agreements can help safeguard workers’ right to form unions free of the types of interference employers often deploy. Under a neutrality agreement, an employer agrees to remain “neutral” and not interfere with workers’ decisions on whether to unionize. Such agreements typically include joint commitments to a “card check” process for verifying whether a majority of employees have indicated interest in forming a union. Unions and employers sometimes also enter into a labor peace agreement, where unions agree not to engage in certain types of picketing, work stoppages, or other economic disruptions during the organizing process in exchange for employer neutrality.

Employers can also choose to commit to union neutrality as a matter of principle or company policy. Union neutrality—providing workers a more free and fair choice to decide whether to unionize—has been a key component of successful unionization drives in Southern manufacturing. To take two recent examples:

• In 2024, workers at the Volkswagen (VW) Chattanooga plant voted to join the United Auto Workers. Like many European corporations, the German-based VW has an established policy of maintaining neutrality in union election processes, although workers still voiced concerns that in its U.S. facilities, VW management tried to intimidate and dissuade workers from forming a union (Bomey 2024).
• In tandem with community benefits agreement negotiations with New Flyer in Anniston, Alabama, the United Steel Workers and Communications Workers of America negotiated three neutrality agreements with New Flyer and its subsidiaries in 2022. Over the two years that followed, these union neutrality agreements enabled workers to pursue five successful union drives, including at the New Flyer facility in Alabama (Last 2025; Sasha 2024).

Successful recent instances of union organizing in Southern manufacturing facilities have been powerful enough to generate their own backlash. Because of the threat that union neutrality agreements represent to the reigning Southern economic development model, several conservative state legislatures in the South have used model legislation developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council to pass laws intended to interfere with these agreements (Sachs 2024). While the legality of such measures remains in question and has not yet been tested, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia now all have legislation in place stating that employers who agree to a union neutrality agreement will be barred from receiving state economic development funds, disincentivizing companies from participating in these agreements (Stephenson 2024).

Importance of unionization to improve manufacturing jobs and wages

Securing unionization in Southern manufacturing can have significant wage benefits for workers. Unionized manufacturing jobs are more likely to provide family-sustaining wages. Unionization in manufacturing is associated with a 17.9% wage premium for workers (Scott et al. 2022). This means that compared with similar workers in terms of education, occupation, experience, race, and ethnicity, unionized manufacturing workers are paid almost a fifth more per hour than their nonunionized counterparts.

Table 1 translates this union premium into how much more unionized workers in the South could make on an hourly, annual, and plant-wide basis. The average nonunionized manufacturing worker in the South earns $34.50 an hour, so with the typical union premium, that worker would be earning an additional $6.18 an hour. If that worker works full time, year-round, the hourly premium translates to $12,846 more a year. To illustrate the potential impact of unionization in an entire plant, we take the example of the BlueOval auto manufacturing investment in Tennessee, which is projected to create 6,000 jobs (TN Office of Governor 2023). For a plant of that size, unionization could mean more than $77 million in additional wages for workers.

Table 1

Wage gains from successful unionization are not hypothetical for manufacturing workers in the South. For example, in 2024, workers at New Flyer in Anniston, Alabama, ratified a union contract with significant pay raises, with some workers gaining raises of up to 38% through 2026 (CWA 2024). Establishing a union contract with transparent pay ladders will also help New Flyer workers combat persistent pay gaps between white and Black workers in Anniston’s manufacturing industry (Erickson 2021).

The benefits of unionization go far beyond hourly wage increases. The workers at New Flyer also achieved significant gains in terms of vacation time and retirement contributions. Unionized workers secure critical benefits like health care and sick days at greater rates than their nonunion peers. Adjusting for differences in industry, sector, and region, union workers are 18.3% more likely to have employer-covered health insurance than their nonunion counterparts (EPI 2021). Almost 9 in 10 private-sector union workers have paid sick days, compared with less than three-fourths of nonunion private-sector workers (EPI 2021).

Unions also contribute to safer and healthier working conditions across a wide range of industries (Dean, McCallum, and Venkataramani 2022). By strengthening workers’ voice on the job, unions empower workers to report safety issues and demand better protocols. One example of this is that unionized construction sites experience significantly lower rates of Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) violations than nonunionized sites (Manzo IV, Jekot, and Bruno 2021). This is despite the fact that unionized workplaces actually experience greater rates of OSHA inspections than other workplaces, likely because many unions maintain active health and safety committees and because unionized workers have greater access to education on how to recognize safety hazards and are less afraid of reprisals from their employer for reporting them (Leigh and Chakalov 2021).

As the New Flyer agreement demonstrates, a strong CBA includes (or is negotiated in tandem with) union neutrality commitments ensuring that workers have a free and fair choice to unionize, without employer interference or retaliation. Securing a pathway to unionization can provide direct benefits to workers at a particular facility, while also increasing local organizing capacity and coalition strength for future negotiations over new projects and local development decisions. Not only is a new union a legally recognized institution that can monitor and hold the company accountable for commitments in the CBA, but it can also play a critical role in amplifying demands of workers and communities outside of the workplace and building power for working people more broadly.

Living wage floor

CBAs can also include commitments to minimum wage floors for the workers who will operate a new facility. For example, the 2018 Nashville Soccer CBA in Tennessee included a commitment to an hourly wage of at least $15.50 for stadium workers (SUN 2018). This provision set the stadium’s wage floor well above the minimum wage in Nashville, where workers—like all Tennessee workers and many across the South—are otherwise subject to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.

If a wage floor set by a CBA is high enough, it can help workers achieve a living wage in the place that they live. What constitutes a living wage must be determined by labor and community partners (Gould, Mokhiber, and DeCourcy 2024). For example, a living wage could be defined narrowly as covering the necessities for a single adult, or more broadly as including the needs of a working parent and their children. A living wage target must also make assumptions about nonwage income such as health care benefits and government transfers. Manufacturing workers in the South can also rightfully seek wages that not only cover bare necessities but provide the family-sustaining resources needed to be healthy and thrive.

Figure D shows the share of manufacturing workers in the South earning less than $30 an hour, or $62,400 a year in wages for a full-time worker. More than 3 in 5 (60.8%) manufacturing workers in the region earn less than $30 an hour. Around 80% of Southern Black and Hispanic manufacturing workers earn below the $30 threshold. Women in manufacturing are also more likely to earn below $30 an hour (71.8%) than men (59.1%).

Figure D

A $30 wage floor exceeds the minimum costs for a single adult in most jurisdictions in the U.S., but still barely covers needs for many families with children in manufacturing-dense counties nationwide. EPI’s Family Budget Calculator estimates living wage standards by county that cover modest but necessary costs families face like food, rent, and transportation in the United States. Table 2 shows three Southern counties with significant clean energy manufacturing investments in recent years (CET 2025). Each county has significant manufacturing employment, exceeding the U.S. average for manufacturing employment density. For each county, living wage standards from the Family Budget Calculator are listed for different family types. In Morgan County, Georgia, and Maury County, Tennessee, a single adult with a child must earn at least $30 an hour to cover basic needs. For a single economic provider to cover the costs of a four-person family, they must earn over $35 an hour in all the counties listed. These living wage standards indicate that a $30 wage floor would provide significant economic security for workers with smaller families or multiple wage-earners.

Table 2

A CBA that secures a strong living wage standard in a manufacturing facility can create a virtuous cycle that brings about greater prosperity in the area. Higher wages for low- and middle-income workers boost spending in the local economy because these workers spend a greater share of their paycheck than high-income workers (Anderson 2014). Other employers in the area might have to raise their wages to compete for workers with the CBA-bound employer. The establishment of a living wage also demonstrates to other workers in the area that higher wages are a feasible goal through collective action.

Local and/or targeted hire policies

Local and targeted hiring refers to policies that prioritize recruitment of individuals from the local community, or workers from specific groups who are otherwise underrepresented in a given workforce relative to local population demographics, such as women, people of color, veterans, low-income workers, formerly incarcerated workers, or workers with disabilities (Lawliss, Finfer, and Sherer 2022). A local hire policy can require that a certain percentage of hours worked on a project be completed by local workers. These policies can also require giving local workers the first option to apply for jobs on a project. For the prosperity created through manufacturing investments in the South to be shared equitably, it is important that local community members have access to the jobs that are created during both the construction and operation phases of a development. Workforce policies also should be designed to remove barriers to employment for groups of workers—especially workers of color and women—who have historically been excluded from many construction and manufacturing career opportunities. Increasing access to these well-paying jobs can increase economic mobility for workers with more limited opportunities.

Despite these benefits, some state policymakers have been hostile to local hire as a public policy. In 2015, Nashville voters passed a ballot initiative that required city-funded construction projects to dedicate 40% of construction hours to Nashville residents, with 25% of those hours going to low-income Nashville residents (Blair et al. 2020). The Tennessee state legislature then quickly passed a bill that preempted the city from creating its own local hire policy.

As Figure E shows, the harm of Tennessee’s preemption of local hire falls disproportionately on workers of color. The construction workforce in the Nashville metro area has a higher share of workers of color and immigrant workers compared with the state construction workforce overall. Black workers are 8.2% of the construction workforce in Davidson County, but 5.5% of the overall state workforce. More than half (51.5%) of construction workers in Davidson County are Hispanic, compared with less than a quarter (20.1%) of the state overall. Davidson County construction workers are also more than twice as likely to be immigrants (40.2%) than in all of Tennessee (14.8%). State preemption of local hire prevented Nashville from ensuring that public spending would benefit local workers. However, private agreements like CBAs offer an opportunity to incorporate local hire and/or targeted hire requirements into publicly subsidized developments, even in heavily preempted jurisdictions.

Figure E

In 2018, three years after the preemption of Nashville’s local hire policy, the labor-community coalition Stand Up Nashville was able to leverage $275 million in public subsidies for a new professional soccer stadium into a successful CBA (SUN 2018). The Nashville Soccer CBA included commitments to local hire for stadium workers, particularly workers from “Promise Zones,” i.e., high-poverty areas with fewer economic opportunities (SUN 2020). Through the CBA, Nashville Soccer Holding, LLC agreed to consider qualified Promise Zone resident referrals for jobs at the stadium. So far, the program has succeeded in hiring Promise Zone residents. In 2023, Nashville Soccer Club had hired 180 employees, 80 of whom were residents of Promise Zones (SUN 2023).

CBAs in the South and throughout the country are securing similar commitments to local and targeted hiring in clean energy and manufacturing investments. In Alabama, the New Flyer CBA commits the company to ensuring that at least 45% of new hires and 20% of promotions are members of “Historically Disadvantaged Groups” (Sabin 2022).{{4}} In Massachusetts, a new offshore wind terminal entered into a CBA with the City of Salem—setting targets for hiring of local workers, workers of color, and women workers (Sabin 2024). The CBA for Maine Aqua Ventis, an offshore wind facility, includes local hiring opportunities for residents of Monhegan, Maine (Sabin 2017). 

These types of agreements help ensure that local residents benefit from large investments in their communities, particularly when policymakers have invested public dollars in the form of tax breaks or corporate subsidies to support a new facility. Ensuring local workers are prioritized in training programs and hiring processes for newly created jobs also helps community members stay in the area when housing costs are driven up by a large new manufacturing investment. And in the longer term, providing pathways for local workers to benefit directly from these investments strengthens the labor and community alliances needed to hold developers and corporations accountable over time.

Equitable workforce development through apprenticeships and pre-apprenticeships

In addition to local hire policies, which help create equitable pathways for local workers to secure good jobs at a manufacturing site, construction and manufacturing projects require a skilled workforce to operate safely and productively. A robust ecosystem of registered apprenticeship and pre-apprenticeship programs can help ensure both that employers find the skilled workers they need in a large new manufacturing facility, and that local workers can access pathways to newly created jobs.

Registered apprenticeship programs are training programs vetted by federal or state agencies to ensure use of high-quality, best-practice training standards and approved curriculum aligned with skills needed to succeed in a particular occupation. Registered apprenticeships combine paid on-the-job and classroom training and result in a recognized, portable credential certifying that a worker has the skills and experience necessary for a specific occupation. Pre-apprenticeship programs (also known as apprenticeship readiness programs) recruit and prepare participants for registered apprenticeships—often partnering with community organizations—to open pathways to apprenticeship for women, Black and brown youth, immigrants, workers with disabilities, or others historically excluded from skilled trades occupations. The best practice is for these apprenticeships and pre-apprenticeships to be joint programs between unions and employers, providing high-quality instruction tailored to industry needs and training that leads to placement in a high-quality job with wages, conditions, and benefits negotiated into a union contract. Often, a vital building block for successful manufacturing apprenticeship programs is the establishment of a unionized workforce at a facility.

Unlike lower-quality workforce development programs, registered apprenticeships pay workers fairly for their labor during their training—and in joint apprenticeship programs, the wages and benefits of apprentices are negotiated into a union contract and typically include scheduled increases as apprentices progress through the training program. Registered apprentices (across joint and non-joint programs) typically see their earnings increase 49% between the year before they enter the program and the year after completing it (Walton, Gardiner, and Barnow 2022). These increases in earnings are greater than for similar workers who do not enter the apprenticeship during the same time period (Katz et al. 2022). Apprenticeships can also be particularly attractive to workers because they are debt-free. Most apprentices (60%) consider debt avoidance the most important reason for choosing to enroll in an apprenticeship (Walton, Gardiner, and Barnow 2022).

Apprenticeships can be a powerful tool for increasing the diversity of construction and other industry workforces. While participation of women and workers of color in apprenticeships has grown in recent years, this growth has been painfully slow for decades (CEA 2024). Research finds that union-based (joint) apprenticeship programs have been more successful than other types of apprenticeships at increasing diversity in the construction industry (Ormiston and Bilginsoy 2024). Joint apprenticeships enroll a higher share of women, Black workers, and Hispanic workers than non-joint programs, and have higher program completion rates for all workers, including for women and workers of color. Community benefits agreements can secure commitments and partnerships that equitably grow this pipeline of workers and set enforceable local and targeted hiring goals which in turn spur diversification of construction and manufacturing apprenticeship programs.

For instance, the New Flyer CBA creates a partnership between the company and coalition partners to develop pre-apprenticeship and technical training programs that expand access to manufacturing jobs for workers with low incomes and from disadvantaged groups (Sabin 2022). For these programs to succeed, community groups and educational institutions must have an active role in shaping the programs and connecting workers to these opportunities. The development of a growing skilled workforce and a robust, high-quality workforce development ecosystem can in turn be a strong incentive for bringing more facilities to an area over time. In 2015, Polaris stated that a significant factor in its decision to choose Huntsville, Alabama, for a new production facility was the area’s skilled workforce (Polaris 2015). As more workers participate in high-quality training programs that lead to union jobs, the organized workforce of the region will grow, strengthening labor-community coalitions the next time there is an opportunity to shape new development in the region.

Child care

Child care is an essential but extremely costly expense for many working families across the South. Average annual infant care costs in the South range from $6,868 in Mississippi to $14,277 in Virginia.{{5}} The Department of Health and Human Services recommends that 7% or less of family income go toward infant child care costs, but typical Southern families spend significantly more. In Alabama, infant care costs are 9.8% of median family income, while in Oklahoma the share is 15.4% (EPI 2025b).

Increasing access to high-quality, affordable child care not only makes work more accessible to parents (and especially to women, who on average continue to assume disproportionate care responsibilities), but is a powerful investment in children’s development that can help narrow class and racial inequalities (Morrisey 2020). In addition, child care workers tend to work for very low wages and experience poverty at greater rates than the typical worker.

A large manufacturing investment in a locality might produce a significant number of jobs, and in turn increase the demand of workers and their families to live nearby. This is likely to increase the need for child care services in the region. However, data show that child care employment has not kept up with manufacturing growth in Southern counties. Table 3 compares counties with high manufacturing density, where manufacturing employment makes up more than the national average (9% in 2009), with those with lower manufacturing employment density (EPI 2025c).

Table 3

Between 2009 and 2024, manufacturing employment in high-manufacturing-density counties in the South grew 15.9%, achieving faster growth than similar counties in the U.S. overall (12.1%). However, over the same period, child care employment only grew 4.5% in Southern high-manufacturing-density counties, far below the national rate of 14.2%. Child care employment growth in the South for low-manufacturing-density counties (22.3%) is also below the national level (28.5%). The South systematically underinvests in child care, despite its importance to a healthy economy in the region.

CBAs and PLAs have been used to secure both the construction of physical child care spaces and financial support for actual services. The Nashville Soccer CBA reserved 4,000 square feet for the development of a child care center (SUN 2020). In 2001, the CBA for the North Hollywood Commons mixed-use development project in Southern California secured a commitment to an on-site child care center. Fifty child care spaces at the center were reserved for low- and moderate-income families (Sabin 2001). In the Boston area, unions have secured Project Labor Agreements that seek to address the unique child care needs of the construction industry. The PLA for the Winthrop Center in Boston established a child care access fund to research, develop, and implement alternative child care models within the construction industry, with a particular focus on assisting single mothers with child care while supporting their career (NEREJ 2019).

These types of investments are vital supports for working families, particularly mothers, seeking to balance professional and care work. Combined with union neutrality for the child care workers at these facilities, commitments to providing child care can further elevate worker power in the region and help large new facilities recruit and retain the skilled, experienced workforces they need to succeed.

Affordable housing

Without strategies to address the housing needs of a community impacted by a new manufacturing investment, local residents can experience increased economic precarity or forced displacement. The local housing impacts of a large industrial investment can be complex. A significant manufacturing investment can make a local community more attractive as workers move into the area to be close to their place of work. Manufacturing investments are also likely to be paired with prospective real estate investments in anticipation of future development around the original project. State and local governments might use eminent domain and other purchasing mechanisms to secure land for roads and other new infrastructure. These dynamics can increase housing costs for residents, particularly renters who are most vulnerable to the impacts of housing speculation and prospective rent increases. For instance, the BlueOval development in West Tennessee is already reported to have increased property prices and housing rents (TCG 2023). Homeowners, particularly those with fixed incomes, can also be more burdened with housing costs as higher demand in the area increases property tax valuations (Payne 2019).

On the other hand, extreme proximity to an industrial site can expose residents to environmental hazards and noise pollution, and may be considered unsightly, which decreases property values (Currie et al. 2016; Upton and Talpur 2024). The exact distribution of these changes in demand for housing across a community will depend on the type of industry and any other types of development included in the project.

Industrial investments like manufacturing facilities tend to take place in rural and semirural areas, in part because land is relatively inexpensive (Wiley 2015). While the counties with a higher share of manufacturing employment tend to have lower housing costs than urban areas, housing affordability remains a significant issue for workers. On average, across high-manufacturing-density counties in the South, a two-adult, two-child household must cover more than $14,000 a year in housing costs.{{6}} A large share of renters in high-manufacturing-density counties in the South still are cost-burdened by housing, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on rent, utilities, and other housing costs. As shown in Figure F, across the Southern states, the share of cost-burdened households in high-manufacturing-density counties ranges from 28% in Arkansas to 47% in Florida. More than 2 in 5 (42%) of Texas renters in these counties are also housing cost-burdened.

Figure F

A strong CBA will secure commitments to build a certain number of affordable housing units or dedicate a share of housing at the site as affordable. The Nashville Stadium CBA created agreements that at least 12% of residential units in the development would be affordable and that 20% of those units would be three-bedroom units to accommodate families (SUN 2020). The Staples Center CBA in Los Angeles, California, was another successful example of strong affordable housing benefits. The 2001 agreement for the development of an expanded convention center, theater, and surrounding housing, hotel, and retail space secured commitments that 20% of housing units would be affordable. The developer also agreed to provide $650,000 in interest-free loans to nonprofit affordable housing developers in the local community (WRI 2001).

Even in situations where a labor-community coalition is unable to reach a final CBA with a company, coalition organizing around community demands can still deliver meaningful affordable housing victories. Between 2002 and 2006, a labor-community coalition in Denver pressured Cherokee Investment Partners to provide community benefits as part of their redevelopment of the site of the Gates Rubber Company. The coalition leveraged zoning changes necessary for the project and a potential subsidy package from the city to extract benefits including an affordable housing plan for hundreds of rental and for-sale affordable housing units (Ingram and Hong 2011; PowerSwitch Action 2025).

In 2005, the labor-community coalition organized by Georgia STAND-UP was able to attach community benefits to an Atlanta city ordinance allocating $2 billion in public funding for the Atlanta Beltline transit-oriented development project. The city resolution shaped by the coalition established an affordable housing trust fund and a goal of developing 5,600 affordable housing units (PowerSwitch Action 2025). As of 2024, more than 4,100 affordable units have been created as part of the project (Atlanta Beltline, Inc. 2024).

Labor-community coalitions can also pursue other land-use commitments beyond the development of affordable housing. The BlueOval Good Neighbors coalition in West Tennessee has demanded commitments to protect land for farmers in the area. The development of the Ford factory has pushed Tennessee’s Department of Transportation to pursue land for new roadways through purchase and eminent domain. The area targeted for new roadways is a majority Black farming community, and several farmers are engaged in lawsuits with the state over the state’s meager compensation offers for their land (Wadhwani 2023). The coalition has demanded that farmers be offered replacement land in exchange for their sold land, as well as the creation of a 10,000-acre community land trust (BlueOval Good Neighbors n.d.).

Creating or protecting affordable housing is essential for protecting the communities that are necessary for any effective labor-community coalition. Large developments can cause instability within the community as new residents arrive, and existing residents are buffeted by rising housing costs. Because of historic and ongoing racial discrimination in housing policy, labor policy, and real estate practices, the costs of these changes are most likely to impact Black and Hispanic workers. Black families and other workers of color are the most likely to be cost-burdened by housing (JCHS 2024). Creating housing for workers and families to remain in the area is vital for continued collective action to secure benefits from developers and hold those developers accountable for their promises.

Environmental standards, funding, and monitoring

Large-scale manufacturing projects often have significant environmental impacts, both during construction and once they are in operation. Air, noise, and groundwater pollution; harm to wildlife habitats; and residents’ exposure to toxic byproducts are just a few examples of common concerns, and these consequences can be severe when projects are approved without sufficient environmental consideration. The consequences of large manufacturing projects often disproportionately harm communities of color and low-wealth areas throughout the South (Brouk 2024). For decades, poor and Black residents in the region have been exposed to toxic chemicals, pollution, and other environmental dangers at alarming rates (Bergman 2019).

In 2021, the Tennessee governor approved the construction of a General Motors lithium battery supplier in the city of Spring Hill, on the banks of the Duck River. Though the project was seen as an economic success, the plant’s operation has taken a toll on the fragile river ecosystem. The lithium battery factory is not the only strain—just eight companies along the river drain tens of millions of gallons of water daily (Wadhwani 2024). This enormous water usage has lowered river water levels, threatened biodiversity, and harmed local tourism and recreation. Advocates for the river’s health blame the state’s prioritization of manufacturing expansion without regard to the long-term environmental or economic consequences for local residents or other existing local industries.

CBAs are a tool that may help community-labor coalitions address the environmental impacts of data centers in the South. Data centers are booming across the United States, but particularly in Southern states like Georgia, Texas, and Virginia (Walker and Goldsmith 2026). New centers are heavy users of water and energy, create noise and air pollution, and are driving up electricity costs nationwide both by increasing demand for energy and requiring utilities to invest in new infrastructure paid for by all ratepayers (Merchant and Guerra 2025; Bizo et al. 2021; AI NOW 2025; Reed 2025). For example, in Virginia, electric bills were on track to increase as much as 25% in 2025 because of data centers (Penn and Weise 2025).

Growing community concerns surrounding data centers could create leverage for labor-community coalitions to pursue CBAs and other community benefits strategies. In 2025, community opposition blocked or delayed $64 billion in data center projects across the nation (Data Center Watch 2025). As community resistance to data centers continues to grow, more developers may recognize the need to come to the table with local coalitions to negotiate binding commitments on environmental and economic outcomes to secure project approvals. A handful of localities have begun to create agreements with data center developers regulating water use and securing commitments to green energy use (Turner Lee and West 2026).

Past development projects provide examples of how communities have used CBAs to secure long-term commitments to clean energy transition and protection of local natural resources in a multitude of ways, from mandating that any new construction must meet specific sustainability standards to requiring companies to contribute a set dollar amount to a city’s renewable energy transition fund. In Virginia, the City of Richmond Resort Casino CBA ensured the developing and operating company would design and construct all project buildings to Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Silver standards and would use previously existing pavement where possible (WRI 2021). The agreement also required the developer to attempt to reduce the urban heat island effect by planting shade trees along sidewalks and using other landscaping methods (WRI 2021). These agreements can mitigate additional environmental harm in areas that have already been polluted. A CBA between the Town of Waterloo, New York, and Seneca Meadows, Inc. regarding a landfill expansion commits the waste management company to pay for the development of new public water lines and other potable water infrastructure if existing public water wells become contaminated (WRI 2005).

CBAs can also be used to expand the positive impact of an already climate-friendly project. In New York, a CBA with an offshore windfarm developer stipulates that the company must contribute $2 million to the town of East Hampton’s Ocean Industries Sustainability Program (WRI 2018). Additionally, Deepwater Wind South Fork, LLC must spend $200,000 to establish an Energy Sustainability and Resilience Fund to support East Hampton’s transition to 100% renewable energy (WRI 2018). CBAs with environmentally focused companies provide valuable opportunities for communities looking to address climate change, especially where state governments have failed to invest in environmental programs.

A CBA can achieve a variety of climate and environmental commitments from a company but is also a strong starting point for building local capacity to monitor resource use, pollution, and other environmental priorities. A strong coalition of community, labor, and environmental groups can play essential roles in implementing and enforcing CBA commitments in contexts where understaffed government agencies have limited ability to monitor or investigate pollution and other environmental harms. Instead, workers and community members are often the first to report harmful practices and safety concerns. A strong CBA can provide opportunities for labor and environmental groups to work together to monitor and protect worker and community health, natural resources, and ecosystems.

Conclusion

For decades, Southern economic policies shaped by dominant business and corporate interests have resulted in poor working conditions and failed to ensure that profits generated by publicly subsidized development are shared with local workers and communities. Confronting the deep, long-standing imbalances of power that have entrenched this failed economic development model will require significant organizing and coalition-building to increase the collective power of workers and community members to shape different outcomes from the latest Southern manufacturing boom. Building new forms of worker and community power will be equally necessary to counter escalating authoritarian actions of the Trump administration, which closely parallel many features of the failed Southern economic development model that by design prioritizes corporations over workers and communities.

Our analysis shows that community benefits agreements could be powerful tools for Southern labor and community groups building the shared power necessary to reshape local and eventually regional economies. When strong coalitions of labor, environmental, faith-based, and other grassroots community organizations are able to build the necessary power to bring a company or developer to the table to negotiate an enforceable agreement, such coalitions can secure measurable economic benefits like higher wages, respect for workers’ rights to unionize, local or targeted hiring, protection of natural resources, or more affordable housing. Such economic gains are beneficial in themselves, but they also raise expectations, build local capacity to pursue additional gains, and demonstrate to the community at large that local residents can shape their own economic futures, and that these types of victories are achievable in the face of the Southern status quo.

While the urgent project of upending the Southern economic development model will require vigorous and persistent organizing across many sectors and geographies, community benefits agreements are one key strategy for turning manufacturing jobs into good jobs, ensuring long-term local economic gains from new industrial investments, and even renewing democracy in contexts where it has long been suppressed. Forming strong, long-lasting labor-community coalitions is essential to winning concrete gains for local workers as well as reshaping the political fabric of Southern communities and increasing working people’s influence over broader state or regional economic policy decisions. Winning and implementing any strong CBA requires the formation of an empowered labor-community coalition, which ideally endures and gains greater strength, experience, and influence over time. Just as the economic benefits of unionization extend far beyond an individual workplace, establishing a strong CBA coalition can create broader positive impacts across a community or region—delivering higher-quality jobs; more equitable tax systems; stronger public services; and healthier, more inclusive political systems.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the AFL-CIO Center for Transformational Organizing for their partnership and invaluable contributions in the production of this report. The authors are also grateful to Athena Last and Ian Elder at Jobs to Move America and Ben Beach at PowerSwitch Action for their expert feedback.

Appendix

Appendix Table 1

Notes

{{1.}} Clean energy manufacturing includes manufacturing of batteries, electric vehicles, mineral products, solar energy products, and wind energy products.

{{2.}} Workers in Southern states experience lower wages than in other regions even after adjusting for cost-of-living differences (Childers 2023).

{{3.}} The facilities covered by these agreements included plants in Alabama, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, New York, and Wisconsin.

{{4.}} This category includes workers who are Black, Indigenous, and/or people of color; women; LGBTQ+ persons; systems-impacted people (formerly incarcerated people); persons emancipated from the foster care system; residents of Anniston, Alabama, lacking GED or high school diploma; and veterans.

{{5.}} Southern states excluding D.C., Delaware, and Maryland.

{{6.}} EPI analysis of Family Budget Calculator and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data.

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What is happening?

At a time when working-class families are already facing a weakened job market, high prices, and general economic uncertainty due to erratic federal policy, Republicans in Congress seem committed to worsening their economic anxieties. The enhanced ACA premium tax credits, instituted with the American Rescue Plan (ARPA) and extended through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), were not extended through the Republican-led reconciliation budget. These credits have led to the largest increase in health insurance coverage since the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, and saved enrollees on average $705 annually in 2024.

Working-class families across the country will feel the implications of this policy failure as health insurance premiums rise (Groundwork Collaborative 2025). However, Black families, who face higher rates of poverty and uninsurance even under “normal” circumstances, are positioned to be hit especially hard by the loss of the enhanced subsidies. The loss of the premium tax credits is also set to economically drain the cities where lots of Black families live, especially those cities in states that neglected to expand health coverage through the ACA (Ortaliza 2025).

This analysis will focus on 10 major metro areas: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.

Impact on Black families across 10 major metro areas

The Affordable Care Act, largely through its Medicaid expansion in 2014, set in motion a decade-long trend of falling rates of uninsurance throughout the country (Ortaliza, McGough, and Cox 2025; Hill et al. 2025). However, some states, particularly those throughout the South where the majority of Black Americans live and work, refused to expand Medicaid through the ACA (Childers 2023). Southern states’ refusal to expand access to Medicaid has meant lower coverage rates in those states and that a large share of Black Americans fall into what is known as the health insurance “coverage gap”; that is, they qualify for neither Medicaid nor traditional ACA subsidies (Lukens and Harker 2024). Even outside the coverage gap, many individuals who do qualify for ACA subsidies remain uninsured due to cost and enrollment difficulties.

The enhanced ACA premium tax credits do not eliminate racial disparities in health insurance coverage, nor do they close the coverage gap faced by Black Americans. However, the tax credits do make insurance more affordable, and thus practically more accessible, for those individuals who qualify. This increase in accessibility has led to the largest increase in Marketplace enrollment since the Medicaid expansion, with outsized increases among low-income individuals and in states that did not expand Medicaid. The loss of the tax credits would reverse hard-won progress made in reducing racial disparities in uninsurance rates (Buettgens et al. 2025).

Table 1

Figure A

Younger and healthier individuals are more likely to forgo coverage when faced with a sharp increase in the price of insurance compared with those who are less healthy and for whom coverage is less optional (Monaghan 2014). The expiration of the tax credits will therefore likely bring a knock-on increase in premiums as younger enrollees forgo coverage, since insurance premiums are cheaper for everyone when there is a large pool of healthier enrollees.

The remaining enrollees in the insurance pool of each metro area will also see premiums, and thus their health care spending, increase. Given that the states where larger shares of the Black population live are those set to be hit hardest by increased rates of uninsurance, we anticipate that the impact on consumption in metro areas in those states will be more severe.

Table 2

Access to health care in the United States is largely mediated by health insurance coverage. As a result, losing coverage in most cases means losing access to adequate and necessary care. Indeed, though access to health insurance does not guarantee affordability, uninsured adults are nearly twice as likely to report some difficulty in affording health care compared with those with insurance, with three-quarters either skipping or postponing needed care due to cost (Sparks et al. 2025).

Over time, a lack of access to adequate health care contributes to excess mortality. Black Americans are more likely to be uninsured, more likely to face difficulties in affording health care, and are thus more likely to postpone or skip care due to cost. To the extent that the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits does lead to reduced health care access, it will likely also lead to excess mortality (Sommers, Long, and Baicker 2014).

Table 3

The loss of the enhanced premium tax credits will have knock-on economic costs, in addition to the public health costs resulting from excess mortality and increased health care costs for remaining marketplace enrollees. We assume a multiplier of 1.8 for health care spending, meaning that every lost dollar in premium tax credits reduces economic activity in a given metro area by $1.80 (estimates range from a multiplier of 1.5 to 2; see methodology section). Metro areas with large Black populations in states that lack Medicaid expansion will face significant losses in economic activity from this reduction in federal spending.

Table 4

Metro areas with large Black populations will also suffer significant productivity losses due to diminished worker health, assuming a productivity loss of $1,650 per newly uninsured Black worker. Finally, we assume employers in these metro areas will pay an additional $4,000 annually due to increased costs associated with each newly uninsured Black worker. Each of these impacts is felt most acutely in places where losing the enhanced premium tax credits is most costly—that is, those MSAs with the largest Black populations facing precarity in their coverage status.

Table 5

Why is this happening?

The Republican reconciliation bill passed last summer gives a clear distillation of conservative priorities: They prioritize the well-being of the wealthiest households and corporations over that of working-class families (Acemoglu et al. 2025). As such, the new budget contains several provisions that provide disproportionate tax relief to the wealthiest households, at the expense of social programs designed to benefit working- and middle-class families.

Allowing the premium tax credits to expire also repeats an unfortunate pattern associated with pandemic-era expansionary policy aimed at easing economic conditions for American families. Through several provisions in the American Rescue Plan Act (namely the expansion of the Child Tax Credit), the scourges of poverty, child poverty, and child hunger were all drastically reduced in 2021 (Gould 2022). When those expansionary provisions were allowed to expire in 2022, these measures snapped back to their previously higher levels, erasing the progress that was made (Cid-Martinez and Zipperer 2023; Moore and Maye 2023). The ARPA and IRA policies provide clear evidence that policy can be used to effectively reduce poverty, hunger, and uninsurance rates in ways that close racial disparities; it is a matter of prioritization, not practicality.

Why does this matter for public health?

The loss of the premium subsidies will almost certainly lead to a reduction in insurance rates, concentrated amongst those with the least ability to pay. Even for those with more income, having to face increasing health care costs amid a broader affordability crisis will also likely lead those families to go uninsured at the margin. This reduction in insurance will lead to a reduction in families’ access to adequate and timely care. Writ large, reduced access to preventative, adequate, and timely care leads to a less healthy population overall. Moreover, when more individuals and families access health care on an emergency rather than preventative basis, it puts greater strain on the entire health care system, contributing to overcrowding in emergency departments and longer wait times, and reducing the quality of care possible for a broader population (Sartini 2022).

Whether health care is a necessary or luxury good within an economy is partially shaped by the extent to which health care is publicly subsidized (Khan and Mahumud 2015). This is because the income elasticity of demand for health care changes with income. With public support, many more individuals and families can purchase health services as they become necessary than would otherwise. In the absence of public support, and at lower income levels, many view health care much more as an optional purchase when weighed against other pressing costs like shelter and food. Structural changes to the social provision of health care, like allowing subsidies to expire, lead to direct changes in consumption of health services by families, and much more so by working- and middle-class families.

Why does this matter for racial health disparities?

Even among the working class, Black families are more likely to be uninsured compared with white families. Black families are more likely to live in states that did not accept the ACA’s Medicaid expansion, and they are less likely to work for employers that provide insurance coverage. Black families will therefore be impacted more heavily by policies that reduce access to insurance at the margin. This matters because, again, Black families are more likely than their white counterparts to forgo or delay access to adequate health care for financial reasons. Losing access to the enhanced tax credits will result in increased health costs, loss of coverage, diminished health, and excess deaths, concentrated amongst the most disadvantaged. This is in keeping with the Trump administration’s stance that racial equity is not a policy goal worth pursuing.

What will this mean economically for workers and their families?

Families facing economic precarity—those for whom even a relatively small negative economic shock could lead to a crisis—stand to lose the most from the expiration of the ACA premium tax credits. More families are in a precarious financial position than live below the poverty line, and the ongoing affordability crisis being exacerbated by erratic and harmful economic policy decisions increases that number. Black and brown families are more likely to be in the position in which losing the subsidies would be impactful because they are more likely to lack financial assets, even after earning a college degree and escaping income poverty.

The cities where Black workers and families reside will also face a negative shock due to the loss of the subsidies, resulting from lost worker productivity and a drop in revenue, as those families shift more of their spending toward maintaining health insurance and less on other locally purchased consumer goods. Reduced economic activity from Black workers and families will have a broader impact on economic growth and activity throughout these cities.

What should we do about it?

The enhanced ACA premium tax credits are a prime example of a policy used to address the income side of the affordability crisis. The credits work as an income transfer from the federal government to families, making purchasing health insurance more affordable; enhancing the credits allowed more families to access timely and adequate health care. Allowing those enhanced credits to expire imposes a major cost on American families and their local economies, especially those in states where Medicaid was not expanded through the ACA.

But temporary tax credits are weak policy tools for addressing structural affordability crises. When the credits inevitably expire and those federal dollars are taken away, families will face the same issues of affordability; only now their consumption will have adjusted around having the credits. The new “increase” in the cost of health insurance means families must decide whether to risk going without coverage or reduce spending elsewhere— a tough choice with no good outcomes for local economies. 

A better policy strategy for addressing an affordability or accessibility problem with health insurance is to make structural changes to the program ( i.e., permanent changes that expand affordability and accessibility). In this case, extending the premium subsidies to become standard policy would be the strategy that creates the least harm for workers and their families.

Extending the tax credit subsidies would still leave millions of Americans and their families without access to health insurance, and thus facing diminished access to timely and affordable health care. The ACA, even in the expanded form adopted by many states throughout the country, is an imperfect system for achieving the goals of health equity. Moving our health care system in the direction of single-payer health insurance in which access to affordable and high-quality health care is given as a right not contingent on wealth, income, or employment is the strategy most consistent with reducing economic and health disparities across race and improving our overall economic and public health.

Allowing the ACA premium tax credits to expire would make it harder for American families to access health care, worsen an ongoing affordability crisis, and have a knock-on negative impact on local economies. Black workers and their families would feel these shocks most acutely because even under normal circumstances, Black families are less likely to live in states with expanded access to Medicaid, less likely to work in jobs that provide access to health insurance, and more likely to forgo or delay health care due to financial challenges.

The Trump administration has continually shown its disdain for the pursuit of equity as a policy goal through dismantling institutions committed to reducing disparities, rescinding executive orders and federal commitments to set higher standards for equity, and failing to maintain policies that brought us closer to those goals. The pursuit of equity in this moment requires us to hold fast to the progress we have made thus far, both so that we limit the suffering of as many American workers and families as possible, and so that when we do have the opportunity to build toward further progress, those families will be in the best position to help us do so.

Methodology

This analysis uses publicly available data and fixed parameter assumptions alongside author calculations to produce annual, metro-level estimates for Black coverage losses and related economic impacts for 10 metropolitan areas. Demographic and labor market statistics are derived from 2023 IPUMS American Community Survey microdata and aggregated from the county to the metropolitan level using Census Core-Based Statistical Area definitions (Ruggles et al. 2025). Coverage data is derived from the 2024 CMS OEP county-level public use file for states using the federally facilitated Marketplace (CMS 2025). For states operating state-based exchanges in which county-level Marketplace data are unavailable, enrollment and subsidy totals are derived from Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) state-level estimates and allocated to metropolitan areas based on Marketplace-eligible population shares calculated from ACS microdata (KFF 2025). Projected coverage losses are derived from Commonwealth Fund estimates of coverage loss at the state level and allocated to metropolitan areas based on each metro’s share of state Marketplace enrollment (Ku et al. 2025). Parameter assumptions for economic activity and public health multipliers are drawn from literature listed in the references, including estimates of lost economic activity from reduced health care spending, productivity losses and employer costs associated with uninsurance, and preventable mortality linked to coverage loss (Chernew 2016; Ortaliza 2025; Sommers, Long, and Baicker 2014; EBRI 2000; O’Brien 2003).

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Peter Diamond, Oliver Hart, Simon Johnson, Paul Krugman, and Joseph Stiglitz. 2025. “An Open Letter From Six Nobel Laureate Economists: The Upside-Down Priorities of the House Budget.” Economic Policy Institute, June 2, 2025. 

Buettgens, Matthew, Michael Simpson, Jason Levitis, Fernando Hernandez-Lepe, and Jessica Banthin. 2025. 4.8 Million People Will Lose Coverage in 2026 If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire. Urban Institute and the Commonwealth Fund, September 2025.

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). 2025. 2024 “OEP County-Level Public Use File” [data set], 2024 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files. Last modified March 3, 2025. 

Chernew, Michael E. 2016. “The Economics of Medicaid Expansion” (blog post). Health Affairs Forefront, March 21, 2016.

Childers, Chandra. 2023. Rooted in Racism and Economic Exploitation: The Failed Southern Economic Development Model. Economic Policy Institute, October 11, 2023. 

Cid-Martinez, Ismael, and Ben Zipperer. 2023. “The End of Key U.S. Public Assistance Measures Pushed Millions of People into Poverty in 2022.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), September 12, 2023.

Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). 2000. The Economic Costs of the Uninsured: Implications for Business and Government. EBRI Policy Forum held in Washington, D.C., May 3, 2000.

Gould, Elise. 2022. “Child Tax Credit Expansions Were Instrumental in Reducing Poverty Rates to Historic Lows in 2021.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), September 22, 2022.

Groundwork Collaborative. 2025. “Another Trump Price Hike for Working Class Americans as Health Insurance Premiums Set to Spike Up to 600% This Fall.” Innovative Research (blog post), October 1, 2025.

Hill, Latoya, Nambi Ndugga, Samantha Artiga, and Anthony Damico. 2025. Health Coverage by Race and Ethnicity, 2010–2023. KFF, February 2025.

KFF. 2025. “Marketplace Enrollment, 2014–2025” (web page). Accessed January 16, 2026.

Khan, Jahangir A.M., and Rashidul Alam Mahumud. 2015. “Is Healthcare a ‘Necessity’ or ‘Luxury’? An Empirical Evidence From Public and Private Sector Analyses of South-East Asian Countries?” Health Economics Review 5, no. 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-014-0038-y.

Ku, Leighton, Taylor Gorak, Kendal Orgera, Kristine Namhee Kwon, Maddie Krips, and Joseph J. Cordes. 2025. Expiring ACA Premium Tax Credits Could Lead to Nearly 340,000 Jobs Lost Across the U.S. in 2026. The Commonwealth Fund (issue brief), October 16, 2025.

Lukens, Gideon, and Laura Harker. 2024. Closing Medicaid Coverage Gap Would Help Diverse Groups and Reduce Inequities. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, July 2024.

Monaghan, Maureen. 2014. “The Affordable Care Act and Implications for Young Adult Health.” Translational Behavioral Medicine 2014, no. 2 (June): 170–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13142-013-0245-9.

Moore, Kyle K., and Adewale A. Maye. 2023. “Despite a Strong Labor Market, the Choice to Allow Pandemic-Era Public Assistance Programs to Expire Increased Poverty Across All Racial Groups in 2022.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), September 18, 2023.

O’Brien, Ellen. 2003. “Employers’ Benefits from Workers’ Health Insurance.” Milbank Quarterly 81, no. 1: 5–43. doi: 10.1111/1468-0009.00037. 

Ortaliza, Jared. 2025. “An Additional 8.2 Million People Are Expected to Be Uninsured from Changes in the ACA Marketplaces.” Quick Takes (KFF), June 10, 2025.

Ortaliza, Jared, Matt McGough, and Cynthia Cox. 2025. The Affordable Care Act 101. KFF, October 2025.

Ruggles, Steven, Sarah Flood, Matthew Sobek, Daniel Backman, Grace Cooper, Julia A. Rivera Drew, Stephanie Richards, Renae Rodgers, Jonathan Schroeder, and Kari C.W. Williams. 2025. IPUMS USA: Version 16.0 . Minneapolis, M.N.: IPUMS, 2025. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V16.0.

Sartini, Marina, Alessio Carbone, Alice Demartini, Luana Giribone, Martino Oliva, Anna Maria Spagnolo, Paolo Cremonesi, Francesco Canale, and Maria Luisa Cristina. “Overcrowding in Emergency Department: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions—A Narrative Review.” Healthcare (Basel) 10, no. 9 (Aug 25, 2022): 1625. doi: 10.3390/healthcare10091625. PMID: 36141237; PMCID: PMC9498666.

Sommers, Benjamin D., Sharon K. Long, and Katherine Baicker. 2014. “Changes in Mortality After Massachusetts Health Care Reform: A Quasi-Experimental Study.” Annals of Internal Medicine 106, no. 9: 585–593. https://doi.org/10.7326/M13-2275.

Sparks, Grace, Lunna Lopes, Alex Montero, Marley Presiado, and Liz Hamel. 2025. Americans’ Challenges with Health Care Costs. KFF, December 2025.

The Trump administration has consistently prioritized aggressive and arbitrary immigration enforcement, with the ultimate goal of deporting 1 million people every year of his term—regardless of their contributions to their communities and the U.S. economy. While the Department of Homeland Security’s pace currently falls short, increased enforcement would curtail business operations and reduce employer demand for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers. Over four years, 1 million annual deportations could cause total employment in the United States to fall by 5.9 million jobs, with particularly severe losses in construction and child care industries.

The direct care sector is also highly vulnerable to these enforcement actions. Amanda Kreider and Rachel Werner’s recent research indicates that job losses will significantly affect workers who provide long-term care in home- and community-based settings. The direct care sector—which includes home health aides, personal care aides, orderlies, psychiatric aides, and some nursing assistants—relies heavily on immigrant labor. Immigrants constitute nearly 30% of the direct care workforce, compared with 20% of overall employment. Among home health aides who assist with daily living and healthcare tasks, four in 10 workers are immigrants.

Kreider and Werner found that previous increases in immigration enforcement caused the direct care sector to shrink. If these patterns hold under the current enforcement regime, four million deportations over four years could cause direct care employment to fall by 394,000 (see Figure A).

Figure A

The majority of this employment decline—274,000 jobs—will result from the loss of immigrant workers. However, in addition to removing a supply of labor, deportations also make the labor market more precarious for immigrant workers. When immigrants face heightened risk of arrest, detention, or deportation, their ability to change jobs becomes severely constrained. With reduced labor market leverage, employers can worsen working conditions and suppress wages for all workers in the sector, not just those directly affected by deportations.

Contrary to the misconception that deportations will increase job opportunities for U.S-born workers, existing research consistently demonstrates that increased immigration enforcement reduces the employment for both immigrant and U.S.-born workers. Deteriorating pay and conditions for direct care workers would make U.S.-born workers unlikely to step in to replace the shortfall of immigrant workers, consistent with what studies have found when immigration enforcement decreased the size of the construction and child care sectors. In direct care, about 30% of the employment decline—the equivalent of around 120,000 jobs—will affect U.S.-born workers.

While employment reductions will be widespread, they will hit certain states particularly hard due to the geographic concentration of noncitizen immigrants in the direct care sector (see Table 1). New York faces especially severe challenges. Immigrants comprise two-thirds of the state’s direct care workforce, and more than one-third of all noncitizens working in direct care nationwide live in New York. If the Trump administration achieves its deportation goals, New York’s direct care sector could shrink by 45%.

Table 1

These large employment losses would translate directly into reduced availability of direct care services. Kreider and Werner found that past escalations of immigration enforcement led to substantial increases in the number of older adults living without any help at home. Among the Medicaid population, formal nonfamily caregiving declined while family-based caregiving increased, reflecting the contraction of the formal direct care sector.

This shift from formal to family-based care suggests that job losses in the direct care sector will have large spillover effects across the economy, greatly increasing their potential harm to even U.S.-born workers. As direct care supply becomes constrained due to deportations, some family members may need to leave their jobs or reduce their work hours to assume new caretaking responsibilities. Indeed, other research has shown that increases in immigration enforcement caused U.S.-born mothers to work fewer hours due to declining availability of household services like cleaning and child care. Family members may well be forced to choose between their careers and caring for aging and disabled relatives.

The Trump administration’s deportation agenda threatens to trigger a cascading crisis in senior and disability care that will harm families across the economic spectrum. Even in the absence of deportations, caretaking needs will accelerate as the older population grows tremendously, especially in the next five years. If the direct care workforce contracts by nearly 400,000 workers due to deportations, millions of older adults and people with disabilities will be left without the professional assistance they need to remain safely in their homes. Rather than creating jobs for U.S.-born workers as proponents claim, mass deportations eliminate employment opportunities for citizens and immigrants alike while dismantling a care infrastructure that seniors, people with disabilities, and families depend on.

The federal Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act—passed in 1970 after decades of fierce advocacy by organized labor and its allies—mandates that workplaces be “free from recognized hazards that could cause death or serious physical harm to employees.” To implement this mandate, the Act created the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) to develop and enforce workplace health and safety standards. OSHA standards are designed to limit workers’ exposure to hazards; ensure access to adequate safety equipment; and require that employers monitor workplaces for hazards and report injuries and illnesses. OSHA also provides training and compliance assistance to workers and employers and gives workers the right to request workplace inspections. The OSH Act established the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), the sole agency responsible for conducting research to inform OSHA policymaking with evidence-based assessments of injury and fatality risks, and providing actionable guidance for employers to improve safety. Since OSHA was created, fatalities and work-related injuries have dropped by 65%, even while the U.S. workforce has doubled in size.

Separately, following a century of lawmaking related to mine safety, the 1977 Federal Mine Safety and Health Act created the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), which is charged with enforcing mine safety rules with the goal of reducing deaths, injuries, and illnesses in U.S. mines.

The OSH Act establishes roles for both federal OSHA and states on occupational safety and health protection. The relationship between federal government and state OSH mandates is complicated. The OSH Act grants the federal government jurisdiction over worker health and safety law, but states have the option to establish their own state-level OSHA standards and enforcement systems (known as “state plans”) that are then monitored by federal OSHA. State OSHA plans must be approved by federal OSHA, be “at least as effective” as federal OSHA, and must cover state and local government employees at a minimum. Currently, federal OSHA can only cover private-sector workers. The cost of running a state plan is shared between the state and federal government. At present:

• 29 states are under federal OSHA jurisdiction (“federal OSHA” states). Federal OSHA covers all private businesses engaged in commerce and all federal agencies but does not cover state and local governments (see Figure A). Self-employed workers are excluded and employers with 10 or fewer employees are exempt from OSHA’s record-keeping requirements (though they are still required to comply with OSHA standards and to report serious injuries and fatalities).
• 21 states have OSHA-approved state plans that cover both private-sector and state and local government workers.{{1}}
• Six states have “hybrid” plans, where private-sector workers fall under federal OSHA jurisdiction, but public-sector employees are covered by a state plan.{{2}}

Figure A

What are the threats to federal workplace health and safety protections?

Threats to federal workplace health and safety protections include:

• Diminishing capacity to enforce or develop workplace safety standards: OSHA has long been understaffed and underfunded. Federal and state OSHAs collectively employ fewer than 2,000 inspectors to cover 161 million workers; it would take the agency 185 years to inspect every U.S. workplace just once. Trump administration actions have already significantly exacerbated OSHA’s existing capacity and enforcement constraints, by:
  • Attempting to close OSHA and MSHA offices, as well as attempting to eliminate NIOSH;
  • Issuing guidance allowing OSHA staff to reduce certain employer OSHA violation penalties by up to 70%; and
  • Announcing self-audit programs that carve out inspection exemptions for employers. These programs reduce the agency’s enforcement powers and create a system that relies on self-policing and individual companies’ voluntary adherence to the law.
• Restricting the General Duty clause: Trump’s Department of Labor has proposed carving out exemptions to this foundational OSHA protection, which ensures that employers have a basic obligation to protect workers from known and preventable dangers not covered by other OSHA regulations. This rule change would exempt certain industries from this obligation and has dangerous implications for the future of OSHA.
• Blocking or delaying long-overdue standards on serious hazards like silica dust or heat exposure: The Trump administration has already paused enforcement of a new mine safety rule on silica exposure that would prevent black lung disease and death from silicosis among coal miners. It is widely anticipated that the administration will block or weaken a proposed new OSHA standard to protect workers from extreme heat exposure.

How can states maintain and strengthen workplace health and safety protections?

State authority to enact and enforce health and safety standards depends on whether a state is a “federal OSHA” or “state plan” state, as follows:

• Federal OSHA states are preempted from enacting standards in areas already addressed by federal OSHA but can still enact policies covering areas of occupational health and safety not addressed by federal law.
• States with state OSHA plans have authority to enact standards that exceed the federal floor—for example, by strengthening existing standards or adopting standards in additional areas, as well as strengthening enforcement programs and imposing civil monetary penalties that exceed federal amounts.

Step I: Update state laws and standards to lock in current federal protections

In state plan states, OSHA standards and enforcement must be at least as strong as the floor set by federal OSHA. However, many state plan states have not achieved this basic standard. Meanwhile, federal OSHA states run the risk of leaving workers unprotected if federal OSHA standards are eliminated or enforcement is further weakened.

Federal OSHA states should:

1. • Ensure OSHA coverage for all public employees: Federal OSHA excludes millions of workers from its protections because it does not cover state and local government employees. Six federal OSHA states have passed protections covering all public employees, but 23 federal OSHA states and the District of Columbia have not yet taken necessary steps to extend protections to state and local government employees. All federal OSHA states should extend coverage to public-sector workers, as is currently under consideration in Pennsylvania. (Because state OSHA plans often struggle with underfunding and capacity constraints that limit their effectiveness, advocates should remain aware that extending coverage to public employees under this model is an important short-term solution, while a best-case long-term scenario would be an expanded federal OSHA that covers all private- and public-sector workers).
   • Pass worker health and safety trigger laws: Federal OSHA states cannot strengthen or adopt standards in areas already regulated by federal OSHA. However, states can safeguard against the possibility of existing federal standards being eliminated by passing legislation to automatically incorporate into state code any eliminated federal standards to ensure workers are not left unprotected. For example, a recently enacted Illinois law directs state agencies to ensure state wage and hour, occupational health and safety, and mine safety standards remain at least as protective as existing federal standards in the event that certain federal protective standards are eliminated.

State plan states should:

• • Ensure full adoption of all current federal standards: Too many state plan states have track records of failing to adopt required new federal standards in their OSHA plans. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the state of Arizona failed to adopt an emergency temporary standard (ETS) for health care workers and failed to align with federal OSHA’s new increase in penalties. After federal OSHA threatened to revoke Arizona’s state plan privilege, the state met its obligations to adopt these standards and penalty increases. Some states, like Kentucky, have failed to update their penalty policy to align with federal minimum standards.

Step II: Close critical gaps in workplace health and safety protections

• All states should adopt standards in key areas federal OSHA fails to cover: Federal OSHA lacks standards in several areas where workers face serious and ongoing workplace hazards, but intense industry opposition has blocked or stalled federal OSHA rulemaking. Fortunately, all states have latitude to adopt their own standards in these areas and can do so by drawing on existing, evidence-based proposals already developed (but not enacted) by federal OSHA, relying on recommendations from NIOSH, or replicating strong standards already implemented in other states.
  • Heat exposure: Heat is a serious and deadly hazard for many workers. There is currently no federal heat standard; it is unlikely that the proposed protection moving through the rulemaking process will be finalized. In the absence of a federal standard, several states have implemented their own state heat standards, which vary in strength and coverage. Lawmakers seeking model policies can look to states like California, Maryland, and Oregon, where strong heat standards apply to both indoor and outdoor workplaces and there are clear temperature thresholds for when protections kick in.
  • Wildfire smoke: Wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, yet there is no federal OSHA standard requiring protection from wildfire smoke. States can follow the lead of California, Oregon, and Washington, which have all promulgated rules that require employers to follow protocols to protect many workers, not just responders. Outdoor and indoor workers need protection from wildfire smoke when airborne particulate matter reaches a certain concentration threshold.
  • Ergonomics: Ergonomic hazards like repetitive lifting, twisting, and forceful hand and wrist motions have long been a leading source of workplace injuries, especially in industries like warehouse work, meat processing, health care, and construction. A federal ergonomics standard was enacted in 2000 but then promptly repealed by Congress. A few states have passed rules to protect workers in certain industries from musculoskeletal disorders, such as hotel housekeepers in California and meatpacking workers in Minnesota. New York recently passed a warehouse worker protection act that includes specific protections against musculoskeletal disorders, among other workplace health and safety concerns.
  • Workplace violence: Workplace violence has worsened over the past five years and is now the third-leading cause of death on the job, yet federal efforts to implement a workplace violence standard have so far been unsuccessful. California, however, is in the process of developing a general standard for workplace violence protections after the state legislature passed SB 553 and mandated comprehensive protections. Cal/OSHA had already implemented a workplace violence prevention standard for employees in health care industries. Several other states proposed standards this year.
  • Infectious disease: In the absence of a federal OSHA standard on airborne or aerosolized infectious disease, U.S. workers—particularly health care workers, low-wage workers, and workers of color—continue to face high risk of workplace exposure during major infectious disease outbreaks. A 2021 OSHA Emergency Temporary Standard established to address COVID-19 in health care settings was withdrawn six months later and OSHA’s stated intent to develop a broader infectious disease rule for health care remains in limbo. During the pandemic, at least 14 states implemented temporary COVID-19 worker safety protections. Other states, such as New York, have adopted limited infectious disease standards. Unfortunately, no state has adopted a comprehensive, enforceable measure yet.
  • Right to refuse work under dangerous conditions—including during climate emergencies: While federal OSHA law has some retaliation protections for workers refusing to work under dangerous conditions, they are weak and largely unenforced. It is therefore urgent that states take steps to ensure that workers may refuse to work under dangerous conditions without being subject to retaliation—and that they continue to be paid so long as the dangerous workplace condition remains unremedied. The need for this protection is only increasing as the climate crisis causes more severe and more frequent emergencies. Some states—such as California and Oregon—and localities like Miami-Dade County, Florida, have enacted laws that prohibit employers from taking adverse action against non-essential workers who refuse to continue work when emergency conditions are present or imminent.
  • Mandate injury and illness prevention programs (IIPPs): Federal OSHA does not have a specific standard to require an IIPP but has issued formal recommendations that employers adopt comprehensive safety programs. Several states, including California, Minnesota, and Washington, have created regulations that require that employers implement an injury and illness prevention plan.
  • Strengthen anti-retaliation protections for workers that voice concerns about safety and health hazards: Though federal OSHA law contains some language on protecting workers from retaliation when exercising their rights under the law, the provisions are weak and the OSHA offices that enforce the provisions are critically understaffed. Providing workers with a private right of action so that they may go to court if they are retaliated against is critical for ensuring workers are protected. States with existing whistleblower laws should expand them to protect workers who notify fellow workers or the public about workplace hazards (not just workers who file complaints).
• State plan states should strengthen existing standards: State plan states should increase protections for workers by implementing stronger versions of existing weak or outdated federal standards. State plan agencies can look to states like California and Washington, whose OSH agencies regularly pass the nation’s most stringent standards, for guidance.

Step III: Use proven strategies to increase effectiveness of enforcement, encourage compliance, and expand community awareness

• State plan states should implement targeted, more effective enforcement and penalty strategies. They should:
  • Increase agency resources and staff: Where possible, states should dedicate more resources to their state OSH agency. Like federal OSHA, state plans are plagued with staffing shortages that severely limit their ability to carry out regular, sufficient inspections. As of 2024, state plan states had an average ratio of one OSHA inspector per 84,937 employees.
  • Increase penalties to meaningful levels: Penalties are effective for deterring violations only if they’re substantial enough to compel employers to take notice and remove hazards. While state plans are required to maintain statutory maximum penalties that are at least equivalent to those of federal OSHA, Kentucky is one of several states that has failed to raise its penalties after Congress required OSHA to raise its penalties in 2016 and index them to inflation. There are also often significant disparities between the already low average penalties assessed by federal OSHA and the average penalties assessed by state plans, even among those that have adopted new maximums. In fiscal year 2024, the average penalty for a serious violation under federal OSHA was $4,083, compared with an average penalty under state OSHA plans of only $2,580. These penalties are far too low to serve as effective deterrents; state plan states should raise penalty rates substantially across the board. In addition, states should resist adopting the new federal OSHA penalty reduction policy that the Trump administration announced in July.
  • Implement instance-by-instance citations: States can use instance-by-instance citations to cite and fine employers for each individual iteration of a willful and serious violation. This strategy can have a significant impact by compounding OSHA’s otherwise low penalties. Washington’s Department of Labor & Industries, for example, fined a manufacturing company over $2 million after it found 31 willful serious, seven willful general, 94 serious, and more than 40 general violations across three of the corporation’s locations. 
  • Cite all involved employers for violations: It is often the case that companies do not directly employ many of the workers who perform tasks for them—work is often outsourced via other entities such as subcontractors, temporary agencies, and workers misclassified as independent contractors. Multiple employers may also operate at the same site. Federal OSHA has maintained a multiemployer policy since the 1970s, but it is underutilized and not regularly enforced. When workers’ safety rights are violated in situations that involve multiple employers, state plans should cast as wide a net of responsibility as is legally feasible and hold all involved companies that possess control over working conditions financially responsible.
  • Require workplace hazards to be addressed while citations are being contested: Federal OSHA and most state plans do not require employers to abate workplace hazards identified during an OSHA inspection while that violation is being contested. State plan states should require employers to address recognized hazards whether they appeal the violation or not, as is done in Washington.
• Monitor and expose routine violators: Federal OSHA’s Severe Violator Enforcement Program designates agency resources toward inspecting and monitoring employers that have “demonstrated indifference” to their OSH Act obligations. Severe violators are subject to additional inspections and are publicly listed on the Severe Violator Enforcement Program Log. This program has been found to be effective at deterring violations by peer employers. States can implement a state-level “wall of shame” like New Jersey’s Workplace Accountability in Labor List (WALL), a publicly accessible list of employers with outstanding wage/benefit theft or tax liabilities, and can issue press releases publicizing serious and willful violations by employers.
• Provide or require workers’ rights education: States can mandate that both youth and adults receive education on workplace health and safety and their rights under OSHA. For high school students, “workplace readiness” curricula—like the one implemented in California and those proposed in other states—can include education on workplace rights including health and safety protections. States can implement use of NIOSH’s “Youth@Work—Talking Safety” curriculum in schools and develop state-level versions of programs like the federal Susan Harwood Training Grants Program, which provides funding to nonprofit organizations to provide workplace health and safety training—particularly to marginalized workers in high-hazard industries.

Where to go next

This document is designed to be a primer on OSHA, as well as to provide insight into the complex relationship between the federal OSHA and state plan states. It is a first step for those interested in improving worker health and safety conditions in their state. It does not provide enough details to guide drafting of laws or regulations for your state. If you are interested in advocating for specific policies mentioned in this brief, please contact us at earn@epi.org. We will be happy to connect you with relevant health and safety experts and organizations for further technical assistance.

Additional recommended resources:

• AFL-CIO’s Death on the Job report
• AFL-CIO’s resources for workers
• Health & Safety resources from National Employment Law Project
• National Council for Occupational Safety and Health
• Workplace Justice Lab at Rutgers University

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Debbie Berkowitz and Rebecca Reindel for their expertise and guidance.

{{1.}} These states are Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Puerto Rico also operates a state plan.

{{2.}} These states are Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. The Virgin Islands also operate a hybrid plan.

Summary:

• From 1916–1970, 6 million Black Americans fled the violence and economic oppression of the rural South. Among the legacies of this Great Migration is the concentration of Black Americans in urban areas.
• Today, 10 metro areas—New York, Atlanta, D.C., Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, Los Angeles, and Detroit—have the largest Black populations in the country and are home to 38.6% of the Black labor force.
• This analysis finds evidence of relative economic prosperity and hardship across and within these 10 metro areas, demonstrating huge stakes associated with federal budget and job cuts, anti-equity backlash, and growing concerns of a self-inflicted recession.
• Since taking office, Trump has pushed an anti-equity agenda that rolls back the clock on hard-won federal policies establishing equal employment and core labor standards and protections for Black workers. The passage of those laws was pivotal in expanding rights and opportunities sought across the decades of the Great Migration and Civil Rights Movement.
• Mass firings of federal employees and budget cuts will have harmful consequences for Black Americans across class lines.
  • Given the large share of the state’s federal workers in metro Atlanta (51% of GA total), D.C. (60% of combined D.C., MD, VA & WV total) and New York (63% of combined NY & NJ total), Trump’s attack on the public sector threatens what has historically been a pathway to better, more equitable jobs for Black Americans—thanks to robust anti-discrimination policies and public-sector collective bargaining.
  • Although these cities anchor metro areas with some of the highest Black median household incomes in the nation, federal grant funds provide critical support to under-resourced inner-city communities. Many of those federal investments in low-income and working-class communities were cut in the Republican-led budget reconciliation bill.
• In addition to his attacks on equity and workers’ rights, Trump’s policy path leads straight to recession—jeopardizing Black workers’ labor market gains in recent years, including historically low unemployment and faster wage growth.
• Based on 2023 estimates from the American Community Survey, metro area Black unemployment was lower than the Black national average in Atlanta, D.C., Dallas, Miami, and Philadelphia.
• While overall real median household income declined 1.1% between 2019 and 2023, Black median household income grew by 2.8%.
• In 2023, Black median household income exceeded the national median of $53,927 in all but two (Chicago and Detroit) of the metros observed. It was highest in the D.C. ($89,912) and Atlanta ($70,969) metro areas.
• In the face of federal rollbacks of civil and worker’s rights and growing concerns about recession, state and local governments should act to maintain and strengthen basic protections, like minimum wage and unemployment insurance, while continuing local efforts to advance racial equity and justice. However, local leaders in red states, like Florida and Texas, face state-imposed obstacles to passing progressive economic and racial justice policies. 

The concentration of Black Americans in urban areas is one of the legacies of the Great Migration—the period between 1916 and 1970 when 6 million Black Americans fled the violence and economic oppression of the rural South in search of safety and better job opportunities in cities throughout the Northeast, Midwest, and West. But even in non-Southern U.S. cities, many continued to face poor working conditions as well as employment and pay discrimination, leaving them just marginally better off than in the places they fled. Rather, significant gains in economic status only became possible through sweeping changes to federal labor and civil rights laws born from years of protest and political pressure during the decades of the Great Migration and beyond. While landmark federal labor laws passed during the 1930s improved working conditions for most white workers, many Black workers were initially excluded from the right to organize unions under the National Labor Relations Act of 1935, or minimum wage and overtime pay protections under the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. The steady demand for equal protection under these and other laws led to the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, prohibiting segregation at all places of public accommodation and discrimination by employers and labor unions based on race, color, religion, or national origin. These federal labor and civil rights laws set a national standard for fair working conditions and equal treatment that some state and local governments have enhanced to varying degrees based on local political and economic conditions. In many cities with large Black populations, policy decisions and local economic conditions yield both positive and negative results for Black Americans.

The diverse experiences of Black people across metro areas{{1}} exemplify the notion that Black America is not a monolith. The unique political and economic dynamics in each place produce relative economic prosperity and hardship that make up the collective economic experience of Black Americans. However, even areas once sought as places of refuge and economic opportunity are now contending with a president whose actions undermine federal laws establishing equal employment and other civil rights, as well as core labor standards and protections.

Since taking office, Trump has pushed a revisionist version of history that erases any acknowledgement of the racism, violence, and oppression that created persistent racial inequities and forever changed the demographic composition of U.S. cities. This includes issuing a barrage of executive orders that roll back the clock on hard-won federal policies that have helped Black Americans attain many of the opportunities sought through the Great Migration and Civil Rights Movement of the 1950s and 1960s. Instead, Trump’s anti-diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) rhetoric centers white men as the primary victims of discrimination and calls into question the “merit” or qualifications of almost anyone else. He has used those false narratives to justify eliminating the use of disparate impact liability and redirecting enforcement priorities at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs—severely weakening the two agencies responsible for making sure employers comply with anti-discrimination law. Trump’s anti-equity agenda—along with efforts to decimate the federal workforce, cut services and programs that working families and low-income communities rely on, and attacks on labor standards and workers’ union and collective bargaining rights—are just some of the many harmful actions that hurt workers and put the economy at risk (McNicholas et al. 2025).

As a benchmark for assessing what’s at stake under Trump’s harmful economic policies and anti-equity agenda, we explore economic conditions for Black Americans in 10 U.S. metro areas with the largest Black populations. This list includes nine of the country’s largest metros overall—anchored by the principal cities of New York, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, and Los Angeles—as well as Detroit. Today, these 10 metro areas, including four in Southern states, are home to 38.6% of the Black labor force and 26.9% of the total labor force. Each of these metro areas account for at least one-third of their respective state’s Black labor force. Additionally, Black Americans are the largest demographic group in the principal cities of Detroit (75.9%), Atlanta (46.4%), Washington, D.C. (40.9%), and Philadelphia (39.5%) and represent over one-fifth of the population in all but Los Angeles (8.5%) and Miami (14.1%).

We examine unemployment rates, median household income, the size of the federal workforce, and federal grant dollars awarded to these places in 2023. Our analysis compares economic outcomes for Black Americans across metro areas and relative to national and state averages and considers some of the factors contributing to those differences. This cross-metro analysis allows us to go beyond a simple categorization of economic conditions as good versus bad or equal versus unequal. Instead, it raises important questions about why conditions are better in some places and worse in others. Finally, we explore the potential for state and local policy to provide a buffer against damaging federal actions that increase the risk of recession, harm workers, and exacerbate racial inequities.

Metro area unemployment rates and income reveal relative economic prosperity and hardship among Black Americans

The chaotic and harmful actions of the second Trump administration have raised the risk of recession for the otherwise strong and resilient labor market Trump inherited. One of the greatest casualties of a completely self-inflicted recession would be the labor market gains experienced by Black workers in recent years, including historically low unemployment and faster wage growth (Cid-Martinez, Maye, and Marvin 2025).

According to official estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the average annual Black unemployment rate in 2023 was a record low (5.5%), compared with an overall national unemployment rate of 3.6%. This analysis compares estimates of national, metro, principal city, and state unemployment rates for Black workers using data from the American Community Survey (ACS). ACS provides better coverage of metro area and principal city Black unemployment rates, but 2023 national estimates are higher than those reported by BLS due to differences in the survey reference periods.{{2}}

As shown in Figure A, in 2023, five of the 10 metro areas—Washington, D.C., Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, and Philadelphia—each outperformed the ACS-estimated national average of 7.2% for Black Americans. Across all 10 metro areas, Black unemployment ranged from a low of 5.6% in metro Atlanta to a high of 10.4% in the Chicago metro area.

Figure A

Figure B reveals that metro area Black median household income exceeded the national median of $53,927 in all but two of the metros observed. The exceptions were the Midwestern metro areas of Chicago and Detroit—the same places where Black unemployment was highest in 2023. Although incomes of Black residents in metro Chicago and Detroit were lower relative to the national median and other metros, their incomes were higher than the median Black household in the states of Illinois and Michigan. Median Black household incomes in those states were also the lowest among the states observed for this analysis.

Figure B

At the opposite end of the scale, Black median household income was highest in the D.C. ($89,912) and Atlanta ($70,969) metro areas. Notably, metro D.C.’s Black median household income was also significantly higher than the overall national median of $77,719. Black households in the New York ($65,758) and Dallas ($63,376) metro areas also had substantially higher median incomes than the typical Black household nationwide.

Relatively higher incomes and lower unemployment in metro D.C. and Atlanta are consistent with the fact that these places also had the largest shares of highly educated Black workers. The share of Black college graduates in the D.C. (40.8%) and Atlanta (36.2%) metro areas is well above the share of Black college graduates nationally (26.2%) and at least as high as the share of all college graduates nationwide. In contrast, the Detroit metro area had the lowest share of Black college graduates (20.8%). As we will discuss later, the high concentration of federal employment and related professional job opportunities in metro D.C. is a likely factor in attracting Black college graduates to the area.

The strength of the 2023 labor market and rise in employment among Black Americans also contributed to the growth in median Black household income. As shown in Figure C, while overall real median household income declined 1.1% between 2019 and 2023, Black median household income grew by 2.8%. The spike in inflation during this period generally muted real income growth; however, increased employment of Black workers managed to counteract the negative impact of inflation on income (Moore and Maye 2023). Black median income growth also outpaced total income growth in six of the 10 observed metro areas—Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Dallas. In places where real incomes declined, the decline was smaller among Black Americans.

Figure C

Echoes of the Great Migration

Across all the observed metro areas, there is a clear distinction in the average economic status of Black Americans in the principal city compared with the broader metro area, which includes surrounding suburbs. We characterize these consistent place-based differences as echoes of the Great Migration. One of the factors contributing to these differences was “white flight”—the mass relocation of white people from urban centers to suburbs in response to the rising Black population in cities during the Great Migration. More than just a demographic shift, white flight initiated a draining of economic resources away from cities that continued as more affluent Black families moved to suburbs following the passage and enforcement of fair housing laws.

Across all 10 metro areas, Black unemployment was higher in principal cities compared with the broader metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and the state. Referring again to Figure A, in 2023, Black unemployment in the city of Atlanta (8.4%) was 2.8 percentage points higher than metro Atlanta where Black unemployment was lowest and closest to the overall national average. Similarly, the Black unemployment rate was more than 3 percentage points higher in the cities of Washington, D.C. (9.9%) and Miami (9.7%), relative to the respective metro areas. In Chicago (12.3%) and Detroit (11.7%), Black unemployment was nearly 2 percentage points above metro area rates that were already at least 2 percentage points above the Black national average. Recession-level Black unemployment rates in the Midwestern cities of Chicago and Detroit are also reflected at the state level for Illinois and Michigan. For Detroit, in particular, a second wave of white flight followed the post-1980s decline in manufacturing jobs and union density, once critical sources of Black economic mobility in the region (Scott et al. 2022). 

Similarly, Black median household income was substantially lower in principal cities than the metro area and the state. Figure B shows that across all 10 metro areas, Black median household income was at least $6,400 lower in the principal city than in the metro area. The largest gap was in the D.C. metro area, where there was a difference of nearly $30,000 between Black median household income in the principal city of Washington, D.C., and the broader metro area. In other metro areas with relatively high Black median incomes, like metro Atlanta and Dallas, the difference was $17,066 and $14,849, respectively. However, even in the Detroit metro area where Black incomes were lowest, there was a gap of more than $10,000 between households in the principal city and those in the broader metro area.

Federal grants are critical to filling resource gaps in urban areas

Federal grants are critical to filling the resource gaps in principal cities since those funds are often directed toward poorly resourced communities. Table 1 provides a summary of federal grant dollars flowing to each city in recent years based on data available at USAspending.gov.{{3}} The grant amounts include funds from block, formula, project, and cooperative agreement grant obligations, and encompass COVID-19-related obligations from the American Recovery Plan Act.

As shown in Table 1, D.C. and New York received the most in federal grant funds (an annual average of more than $6 billion each over fiscal years 2022–2024) followed by Atlanta. However, when adjusted for population size, D.C. and Atlanta had the highest per capita averages ($9,158 and $6,769 per person, respectively).

Although these cities anchor metro areas with some of the highest Black median household incomes in the nation, federal grant funds are directed toward the needs of less advantaged residents. For example, over the last three years, Atlanta’s largest federal grants were from the Department of Education to support students from low-income families in Title I schools. The largest federal grants to Washington, D.C., were from the Environmental Protection Agency, authorized through the Inflation Reduction Act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants and to bring green projects to low-income and disadvantaged communities. Most of the federal grant dollars going to the city of New York were from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to support public housing.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) was a major source of federal grants awarded in nine of the 10 cities. While the agency is most often associated with Medicaid funding for states, HHS funds programs like Head Start, HIV emergency relief, cancer treatment, and children’s hospitals at the city level. Across all 10 cities, the Departments of HHS, HUD, and Transportation were commonly among the top three awarding agencies, representing critical investments in health and well-being, housing, and transportation infrastructure in urban areas.

Table 1

However, due to the upside-down priorities of the current Congress, many federal investments in low-income and working-class communities have been cut to give tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy. In July 2025, Congress passed the Republican-led Budget Reconciliation Bill (or H.R. 1) which guts Medicaid and slashes the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), while also eliminating clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act, potentially putting over half a million jobs at risk (Seeburger et al. 2025). The bill results in 16 million fewer people having health coverage through 2034 and places approximately 11 million individuals at risk of losing SNAP benefits. Medicaid cuts alone could depress local spending enough to force the loss of 850,000 jobs (Bivens 2025). Overall, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that annual income for households in the lowest decile would decline by about $1,600—highlighting the devastating impact this bill will have on vulnerable families and the added strain it would place on state and local budgets (CBO 2025).

The city of Washington, D.C., was placed in a uniquely precarious position when the House’s reconciliation bill reverted D.C. to its 2024 budget. That decision slashed the city’s 2025 budget by more than $1 billion, an impossible deficit to close without laying off many city employees and severely cutting public programs and services. At of the time of this report’s publication, the House had yet to vote on an unanimously passed Senate fix that would reverse the budget cuts, needlessly placing the city’s budget in limbo. In response to House’s inaction, the mayor of D.C. proposed a 2025 supplemental budget that cuts services and freezes hiring to cover the budget gap while avoiding layoffs. Combined with federal job cuts, these actions represent a major blow to the area’s economic base and fiscal autonomy that would be especially tragic for Black Americans across class lines in the D.C. metro area.

Federal jobs cuts threaten relative economic security for the Black middle class

For Black Americans, public-sector employment has historically been a pathway to better, more equitable job opportunities. Through executive actions and legislation introduced in the 1960s and 1970s, the federal government once led in adopting anti-discrimination and affirmative action practices that increased the number of Black workers in the federal government. In the decades that followed, federal jobs have provided stable employment, excellent benefits, and opportunities for career advancement that supported a robust Black middle class. Public-sector collective bargaining has also helped to maintain the quality of these jobs through labor contracts that foster transparency through clearly defined policies and pay structures. This plays a critical role in reducing discrimination and providing workers with critical protections and recourse against other forms of exploitation or mistreatment.

That history stands in sharp contrast to the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the public sector, beginning with workers in DEI departments within federal agencies. Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce also include attempts to limit the approval of collective bargaining agreements with federal workers. The targets of such actions include skilled and often highly educated Black workers who typically experience less employment volatility, even during economic downturns. Nationally, Black federal workers average 12.3 years of service and 45.3% hold at least a bachelor’s degree (compared with 26.2% overall) (Maye and Marvin 2025).

While federal jobs losses will obviously have an impact in the D.C. metro area, over 90% of federal workers are employed outside the nation’s capital (McNicholas and Oakford 2025). The ripple effects from large-scale job cuts are expected to show up in higher unemployment and the disruption of critical public services and government functions throughout the nation. Table 2 shows the number of federal workers who live in each of the 10 metro areas, as well as the metro’s share of total federal jobs in the state. For metro areas that cross state lines, including metro D.C., Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia, we calculate metro area jobs as a share of the combined state totals. Over 300,000 federal workers reside in the D.C. metro area, accounting for 60% of all federal workers in the District of Columbia and surrounding states of Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia. The second largest number of federal workers (over 100,000) are in the New York metro area, representing 63% of all federal workers in New York and New Jersey. Among the single state metro areas, Atlanta is home to over half (51%) of Georgia’s federal workforce and 47% of Michigan’s federal workers are in metro Detroit.

Table 2

While metro-level federal employment numbers by race are unavailable, EPI analysis of state-level data from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) reveals that 43.8% of Georgia’s federal workers are Black—the largest share in the country (Wilson 2025). The District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia each have larger numbers of federal workers than Georgia, and Black workers are just over one-fourth of the federal workforce in each those states—28.8% in D.C., 27.9% in Maryland, and 26% in Virginia.

Between January and July of 2025, BLS reported a loss of 84,000 net federal jobs but the full impact and consequences of those job losses are yet to be revealed. Though thousands of fired federal workers were reinstated by court orders in February 2025, the Supreme Court later sided with the Trump administration when it lifted a lower court’s block on mass federal layoffs, clearing the way for the Trump administration to proceed with planned large-scale cuts to the federal workforce. However, DOGE’s lack of transparency and the Trump administration’s broader data erasure efforts make it difficult to keep track of whether job cuts fall disproportionately on certain groups of workers.{{4}}

Troubling changes at the EEOC stifle equity and would be harmful to economic growth

As a large independent federal agency, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) is relatively small compared with many cabinet level agencies experiencing job cuts. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the EEOC operates 53 district and field offices across the country,{{5}} including locations in each of our 10 featured cities with large Black populations. For 60 years, the EEOC has been integral to the enforcement of U.S. anti-discrimination laws—efforts that helped reduce employment discrimination and boost average living standards by an estimated $493 to $1,233 per person since 1960 (Maye and Wilson 2025). However, troubling changes to the structure and priorities of the agency paralyze some of the commission’s key functions and weaken enforcement against racial and gender discrimination—the most common types of discrimination claims filed (Mark, Gurley, and Rein 2025).

Instead, the Trump administration has redirected the EEOC’s priorities to focus more on investigating so-called DEI-motivated race and sex discrimination and anti-American national origin bias and discrimination (DOJ 2025; EEOC 2025). Trump also issued an executive order designed to end the use of disparate impact liability, a legal standard that works to prevent otherwise “race-neutral” policies and practices from perpetuating racial inequities (EPI 2025b). This restructuring of priorities threatens to turn the mission of the EEOC on its head by framing equity efforts intended to remedy decades of documented employment discrimination as discriminatory.

Just as the presence of EEOC offices in these cities signaled the federal government’s nationwide vigilance over employment discrimination, efforts to undermine the agency signal that employment discrimination—particularly against racial, ethnic, sexual, or religious minorities—will go unchecked. The impact of those changes extends beyond the millions of Black Americans working in and around these 10 cities alone and erodes workplace equity writ large.

State and local policy levers

As the Trump administration pushes the federal government toward a more anti-worker and anti-equity stance, decisions made by state and local policymakers will determine what kinds of protections workers in their states and cities will retain. Table 3 presents a sample of state and local policy positions related to workers’ rights for the ten metro areas featured in this analysis. These positions represent the relative progressivity of those state and local governments which could indicate their propensity to provide some buffer against harmful federal actions that raise the risk of recession, weaken labor standards, and exacerbate racial inequities. These policies include unemployment insurance (UI), minimum wage, paid leave, state preemption of local minimum wage or paid leave policies, and right-to-work laws. As a measure of the likelihood that state and local leaders will fight to maintain or strengthen equity efforts, we also include the number of Black mayors elected in each city and the existence of state or local reparations initiatives.

A basic scan of state and local policies reveals that while there is some variation in the generosity of UI benefits across states, the need for expanded federal support will once again be essential for recovery from the next recession. The scan also shows that local leaders in red states face state-imposed obstacles to passing progressive economic and racial justice policies.  

Table 3

Unemployment insurance

Unemployment insurance benefits are among the most efficient sources of support to families and the economy during a recession. Since they are targeted at individuals whose income falls due to a job loss, UI benefits provide direct income support to eligible unemployed workers while also helping to stabilize aggregate demand, the largest driver of economic growth. Estimates suggest that each dollar in UI benefits can generate nearly $2 in local spending (Evermore 2024). Despite the efficiency of UI benefits, they are often the target of austerity politics fueled by exaggerated and frequently debunked claims that overly generous benefits suppress employment (Martinez Hickey and Cooper 2021). 

While adequate federal action and support for expanding UI during a recession are critical to a quick recovery, state policymakers have some flexibility in determining how their UI programs are structured and resisting the austerity impulse. As a joint state and federal program, each state can adjust its own eligibility requirements, length of time for available benefits, and maximum weekly benefits in coordination with federal guidelines. Among the states represented in Table 3, Florida and Michigan are the only two that currently cap the number of weeks benefits can be received at less than 26 weeks. However, the maximum weekly benefit for unemployed individuals varies from a high of $605 per week in Pennsylvania (Philadelphia) to a low of $365 per week in Georgia (Atlanta).

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the potential for major federal reforms to boost UI as a macroeconomic stabilizer by enhancing the duration, generosity, and eligibility of UI benefits (Bivens and Banerjee 2021). The pandemic also exposed administrative and fiscal inadequacies in state UI systems. Federal funds were allocated by the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) to improve UI systems administration, prevent fraud, and increase equitable access (DOL n.d.). However, few states took steps to strengthen severely underfunded state UI systems long term by increasing their taxable wage base (Sawo and Sherer 2022). UI reform advocates recommend increasing the taxable wage base to half of the taxable maximum for Social Security (Bivens et al. 2021). The increase would result in employers paying state unemployment taxes on a larger percentage of higher wage earners’ pay, generating more revenue and sustaining more fairness, equity, and administrative efficiency over time. Among the states considered, only New York and Illinois have a taxable wage base above $10,000, but still far below the much higher recommended base of $88,500 needed to address underfunding.{{6}}

In red states, a city’s ability to enact pro-worker policies is often at the mercy of state preemption

Several states and localities across the country have established minimum wage ordinances that exceed the federal standard. Since the federal minimum wage has remained stuck at $7.25 for over 15 years, failing to keep up with rising costs and inflation, this is a critical policy lever for supporting workers and their families’ right to a livable wage (Payne-Patterson and Maye 2023). Rasing the minimum wage supports all workers, but especially Black workers who are overrepresented in low-wage occupations.

Currently, 19 states and Washington, D.C., have passed laws raising their own minimum wage to at least $15 an hour by 2027, including several cities listed in Table 3 with local minimum wages well above the federal minimum (Hickey 2024; EPI 2025a). Washington, D.C., New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago all have a minimum wage standard of at least $15 an hour and Detroit’s minimum wage increased to $12.48 in 2025.

Sadly, four cities with large Black populations—Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Philadelphia—have not raised their minimum wage above the federal level. In June, the Pennsylvania state House passed a bill that would raise Philadelphia’s minimum wage to $15 an hour after years of failed attempts to increase the state’s minimum wage to that level (Huangpu 2025). The House proposal now awaits approval by the state Senate. For relatively progressive cities that also happen to be in red states, state preemption laws are a major barrier to passing a higher local minimum wage. In Atlanta, workers not covered by the Fair Labor Standards Act are paid a minimum of $5.15 an hour—$2.10 below the already insufficient federal minimum wage (GDOL n.d.). While local governments are prohibited in establishing a higher city-wide minimum wage, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta have each passed increases for city, county, or contract workers (Cooper 2024; Barrera and Heilman 2025). Apart from preemption, right-to-work laws in these states also present barriers that limit workers’ collective bargaining rights, resulting in lower wages and benefits for all workers.

While raising the minimum wage can raise living standards for low-wage hourly workers, paid family leave enables workers to avoid the difficult tradeoff between income stability and caring for family. There is no federal law that guarantees paid family or medical leave to workers; up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave are available to eligible employees under the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA). However, as of 2025, 13 states and Washington, D.C., have passed their own paid family leave laws (Williamson 2024). Of the states listed in Table 3, only California, New York, and the District of Columbia currently have paid leave policies on the books. In D.C. and New York, eligible employees receive up to 12 weeks of paid leave (DCPFL n.d., NYSPFL n.d.). In California, eligible employees receive up to eight weeks of paid time off (EDD n.d.). All three policies allow workers to use this leave for caring for a loved one, bonding with a child, or military assistance. In New York, employees taking paid family leave receive 67% of their average weekly wage, while in California, workers can receive about 70–90% of wages earned five to 18 months before the claim start date. D.C. Paid Family Leave provides wage replacement of 90% of wages up to 1.5 times D.C.’s minimum wage and 50% of wages above 1.5 times D.C.’s minimum wage (DCPFL n.d.).

Will local steps toward racial reckoning withstand the rising tide of federal and state anti-equity backlash?

Every city and town in the United States has its own complicated racial history to reckon with. That history is infused in local policy and politics and shapes social and economic outcomes. As is true at the national level, decisions made by local elected leaders can either widen or narrow racial disparities. Leadership also reflects and sets the tone for how a city acknowledges, confronts, and seeks to resolve current and historic racial injustice. As measures of perceived racial progressivity, we consider the number of Black mayors elected in the principal city for each metro area and whether any local reparations initiatives have been introduced since 2020. While these are admittedly imperfect metrics, we interpret them as signals of the local political will to advance racial equity and defend current efforts. However, it is uncertain how much local efforts will be jeopardized by legal challenges triggered by aggressive federal and state anti-equity policies.

Table 3 shows that among the 10 cities observed, all except Miami have elected at least two Black mayors. The cities with the longest history of Black leadership are Washington, D.C., and Atlanta, having had seven and six Black mayors, respectively. Five Black Americans have served as mayor of Detroit. Since Black Americans are the largest demographic group in each of these cities, the larger number of Black mayors elected in these cities reflects city demographics and perhaps the degree of influence Black Americans wield in local elections. A more comprehensive analysis of city management and the policy priorities of individual mayors would be needed to assess their direct impact on Black economic outcomes or racial equity.

While little progress has been made to advance the issue of reparations at the federal level, since 2020, several state and local governments have taken initiative in addressing their own histories of racial and economic injustice against Black Americans. Reparations initiatives exist in all except the three cities in red states whose governors have aggressively pushed anti-DEI legislation: Miami in Florida, and Dallas and Houston in Texas. In most places where a reparations initiative exists, activity has been at the city or county level. However, both city- and state-level initiatives exist in California and New York. Current state and local reparations efforts range from the appointment of a task force to study the issue, to exploring plan options, approving legislation, and implementing a plan. While there are open questions about whether local plans are truly reparative or will have any measurable economic effect on closing the racial wealth gap, they are at least a signal of willingness to confront and seriously consider government accountability for eliminating racial inequities (Moore 2023).{{7}}

Conclusion

The strong and stable economy Trump inherited withstood months of his administration’s harmful and chaotic policy actions before clear signs of a softening labor market became evident in the July jobs report. Large downward revisions to May and June payroll employment estimates signaled a weaker labor market than originally reported, bringing average three-month job growth down to just 35,000 net new jobs compared with 127,000 over the preceding three months. Rather than taking this sobering news as a sign that he should reconsider the current policy path, Trump misrepresented the news as a politically motivated personal attack and fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Such careless actions unjustifiably erode confidence in one of the world’s most respected statistical agencies and endangers sound economic decision-making.

If the Trump administration and Congress continue along the current path, there is a very real risk of a recession in the coming months—and a lot at stake for Black Americans who typically suffer higher rates of unemployment and take longer to recover lost jobs and income from a downturn. In recent years there have been economic gains that should be protected and expanded. Five metro areas in this analysis had Black unemployment rates below the national average in 2023 and the median Black household income was above the national median in eight metros. At the same time, there is evidence of persistent inequities and economic hardship that demand a commitment to long-term solutions and investment in underserved communities. Two metro areas were below national measures of Black unemployment and income, but across all 10 metro areas, principal city residents had higher unemployment and lower incomes compared with the broader metro area which includes surrounding suburbs. Trump’s anti-equity, anti-worker agenda undermines both of those objectives by decimating the federal workforce and attacking public sector unions; cutting the federal budget for Medicaid, SNAP, and other programs that benefit low-income families; weaponizing civil rights enforcement to discourage diversity, equity and inclusion; and weakening core labor standards and protections.

State and local governments have some policy levers at their disposal for improving worker protections, but the effect those policies can have on the economic well-being of Black Americans varies by place, and in some cases is conditional on federal or state actions. For example, while cities and states have some capacity to increase their minimum wage or pass paid leave policies, preemption is a major barrier for local leaders seeking to pursue more progressive policies in red states. The law allows states some flexibility to adjust the duration and amount of unemployment insurance benefits, one of the most efficient sources of income support during a recession. Yet severe underfunding of state systems due to a far too low state taxable wage base starves their capacity to make substantial improvements in the fairness, equity, or generosity of benefits without federal funding. Moreover, in a recession, there is little any state can do to expand benefits and speed recovery without increased federal support—a step we can’t assume to be a priority of the current Congress or president. Finally, while many of cities we observe could be considered more racially progressive than the country as a whole, federally led anti-DEI backlash raises the possibility of legal challenges against local policies in support of equity and racial justice.

Black America is not a monolith. That statement is an assertion of the right to self-determination and individual expression that racism denies Black Americans. It is also a reflection of the varied experiences shaped by differences in local policy, economic conditions, political influence, and culture. Still, history shows that the pursuit of collective freedom, justice, and equity for Black Americans has always required decisive national actions that raise the standards for fair and equal treatment of all people in this country. The Trump administration’s denial of that history and lowering of those standards is not just several steps backwards for Black Americans, but moves all of the United States in the wrong direction.

Notes

{{1.}} A metro area is a region that includes a principal city and surrounding cities and towns with economic and social ties to the urban core.

{{2.}} The labor market statistics produced by BLS are based on data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS interviews are conducted in a single designated week each month and annual averages align with the calendar year, whereas respondents answer the ACS at times that vary throughout the month and year and annual figures are averaged over the prior 12 months.

{{3.}} USAspending.gov is the official open data source of federal spending information, including information about federal awards such as contracts, grants, and loans. Since annual grant totals can change as data are updated on a rolling basis, we use a three-year average to minimize the sometimes substantial effect updates can have on a single year’s grant total. A downloaded transaction summary as it existed at the time of our analysis is available upon request.

{{4.}} The OPM data used to report the share of Black federal workers are no longer publicly available.

{{5.}} Workers can call or visit EEOC field offices to ask questions about potential employment discrimination or to directly file an individual complaint. Field offices may also recommend charges for EEOC Commissioners to pursue against specific employers.

{{6.}} The $88,500 corresponds to half of the 2025 taxable wage limit for Social Security, which was $176,100, up from $168,600 in 2024.

{{7.}} In May 2025, FirstRepair and Decolonizing Wealth Project launched a mapping tool that documents state and local reparations initiatives across the United States. See: FirstRepair and Decolonizing Wealth Project, “Mapping the U.S. Reparations Movement” (web page), https://www.reparationsresources.com/.

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The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) establishes a “floor under wages” mandating that employers pay covered employees no less than a minimum hourly rate for all hours worked, whether they are paid on an hourly or salaried basis. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour—a rate set in 2009. FLSA minimum wage rules apply to all private businesses with annual revenue of at least $500,000, as well as hospitals, care centers, schools, and public agencies. 

The FLSA exempts a variety of specific occupations from the minimum wage, such as newspaper delivery workers, seasonal farm workers, workers in commercial fisheries and canneries, private investigators, and babysitters. It allows workers under 20-years-old to be paid as little as $4.25 per hour for their first 90 days of employment. The FLSA also allows employers who have been granted a certificate from the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) to pay less than the minimum wage to employees with disabilities. It also allows employers to pay workers who customarily receive tips as little as $2.13 per hour, so long as the tips they receive over the course of a workweek bring them to an average hourly combined wage (tips plus base wage) of at least the minimum wage.

What are the threats to federal minimum wage protections?

• Allowing the value of the minimum wage to continue to erode: Since the federal minimum wage was last raised in June 2009, its value has declined by 30%. At its 1968 high point in inflation-adjusted terms, the federal minimum wage was worth roughly $12 in 2024 dollars. In 2019, the U.S. House passed a bill to gradually raise the federal minimum wage to $15 and then automatically update it for inflation every year thereafter; however, the Senate never took up the bill. Every year it remains unchanged, the purchasing power of the minimum wage erodes, undermining wage growth for millions of low-wage workers, including many earning wages above the minimum. Moreover, without an increase, the gap between the current minimum wage and what would constitute a true living wage gets larger—making any eventual effort to reach a living wage more challenging.
• Continuing to subject tipped workers to a lower and difficult-to-enforce subminimum wage: The subminimum wage for tipped workers was set in 1991 at $2.13 per hour and has not been raised since. At such a low level, many tipped workers effectively receive no pay from their employers; their take-home pay comes entirely from what they receive in tips. Consequently, tipped workers’ income is volatile and unpredictable, and they can be subject to abuse by customers and employers who, in every shift and transaction, hold power over tipped workers’ pay. Although the FLSA requires that employers must “top off” workers’ paychecks if their tips do not make up the difference between the tipped minimum and full minimum wage, this requirement is notoriously hard to enforce.
• Denying minimum wage coverage to some groups of workers: The Trump administration has already taken initial steps to roll back existing DOL rules that ensure minimum wage coverage for direct care workers (home health aides) and has withdrawn a proposed rule that would have phased out programs allowing payment of subminimum wages to workers with disabilities. Proposals laid out in Project 2025 recommend altering the FLSA to allow states to seek waivers to core FLSA provisions—which could open the door to exclusions of additional groups of workers from coverage.
• Increasing likelihood of underpayment: Failure to pay the minimum wage is one of the most common forms of wage theft and diminished DOL capacity to enforce federal wage and hour laws will exacerbate this problem.

How can states maintain and strengthen minimum wage protections?

States have legal authority to establish their own minimum wages that are higher and more expansive in coverage than the federal minimum. Given the very real risk that aspects of FLSA minimum wage protections could be eliminated (or will go unenforced), it is important for states to at least lock in existing FLSA minimum wage protections. However, states should seek to go beyond the current floor, as the federal minimum wage is far too low and does not cover all workers.

Step I: Update state statutes to lock in current federal protections

Because updates to the federal minimum wage have been infrequent and inadequate over the last 40 years, many states—though not all—have established their own minimum wages. The strength of these laws varies greatly. For example:

• 30 states and the District of Columbia have set minimum wages higher than the federal minimum, ranging from $8.75 in West Virginia, to $16.66 in Washington, and $17.50 in the District of Columbia.
• Five states (Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) have no state minimum wage. Two states (Georgia and Wyoming) have state minimum wages below the federal minimum. The federal minimum wage applies in these states to all workers covered by the minimum wage under the FLSA.
• Some states (such as New Hampshire, Idaho, North Carolina, and Texas) set the state minimum to explicitly equal the federal minimum (whatever it may be), while others have set it specifically at $7.25.

To lock in current federal minimum wage protections, states should:

1. Guarantee a strong state minimum wage floor: States without a minimum wage or with one lower than the federal minimum should enact one that is at least as strong as the federal minimum wage—and ideally stronger. States should codify that the state minimum wage always equals the greater of the federal minimum wage or whatever higher explicit value state lawmakers or voters (in the case of a ballot measure) set.
2. Ensure the state minimum wage covers at least those workers covered by the FLSA: Most states, though not all, link coverage of their state minimum wage to the coverage definitions in the FLSA. States should consider spelling out coverage definitions in state code so that currently covered workers remain covered if federal coverage definitions are eroded to exclude certain groups or occupations in the future.
3. Ensure state agencies have authority and capacity to enforce minimum wage laws: Many states rely, at least in part, on federal enforcement of wage and hour laws. Florida, for example, will have a $15 minimum wage in 2026, yet has no state-level wage and hour enforcement body.

State minimum wage rules are typically part of state labor and employment or wage and hour statutes. In some cases, they are set in state constitutions—the result of citizen-initiated ballot measures. Policymakers and advocates should review their state’s labor laws to assess whether their state minimum wage laws codify at least the same level of protection currently provided under the FLSA, and to ensure that the state has the power to enforce its own minimum wage laws without relying on the federal government.

Step II: Raise the minimum wage to an adequate level, set it for automatic annual increases going forward, and eliminate harmful exemptions

While the FLSA sets an important floor for minimum pay, the current level is woefully inadequate and there remain notable gaps in coverage that state policymakers should close. Priority steps states can take to update the minimum wage include:

1. Gradually raise the minimum wage to at least $17 per hour by 2028: Today, there is no county in the country where a single, childless worker can achieve a modest, but adequate standard of living on a wage of less than $15. By targeting at least $17 by 2028, states can raise their minimum wages to an adequate level allowing for any inflation that may occur as the new wage floor is gradually phased in.
2. Gradually raise and eliminate the subminimum wage for tipped workers: There are currently seven states where tipped workers are paid the regular minimum wage, regardless of tips. In these states, tipped worker wages are higher, poverty rates are lower, and the restaurant industry thrives. States should gradually increase the minimum wage that applies to tipped workers (or reduce any “tip credit” employers can claim against their minimum wage obligation) so that eventually all workers are paid the full minimum wage regardless of any tip income.
3. Index the minimum wage for inflation: States should establish that once the minimum wage has reached at least $17 per hour, it must be automatically updated each year to account for any growth in prices over the preceding year. There are 20 states and D.C. that already have automatic inflation-adjustment built into their state minimum wage laws. Most require that the minimum wage be raised the same percentage as any change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) over a preceding 12-month period, rounded to the nearest 5 cents. If the CPI-U decreases, the minimum wage should not be lowered.
4. Codify minimum wage coverage for direct care workers: As noted above, the 2013 FLSA rule that clarified minimum wage and overtime coverage for home care companions who provide direct care services for seniors and persons with disabilities is under attack in the courts, and the Trump DOL has taken initial steps to reconsider it. To protect such workers from losing these key protections, states should ensure that their wage and hour laws clearly cover them. In states where they are exempted or where state coverage of such workers depends on FLSA coverage (such as Connecticut), state laws should be updated to clearly cover such workers, regardless of what happens to the federal rule.
5. Eliminate harmful minimum wage exemptions: Agricultural workers are not covered by the FLSA, a racist holdover from when the act was initially passed in 1938. Other exceptions apply to smaller categories of workers. States have it in their power to eliminate these exemptions. For example, several states—including California, Washington, and Colorado—cover agricultural workers under the state minimum wage. Also, many states have a “training wage” allowing workers—often only those under age 20 or in school—to be paid less than the full minimum wage. Lawmakers should consider whether these training wages are necessary, and if they are maintained, they should be limited to a short period (e.g., 30 days) after a worker’s initial hiring.
6. Ensure localities can establish their own minimum wages above the state minimum: There are nine states in which a city or a county has established a local minimum wage that exceeds the state minimum—with nearly 60 local minimum wages now in effect. Because costs of living can vary considerably within a state, local governments should be able to establish higher wage standards if the people in those localities deem that the state wage floor is inadequate. There are 25 states where state law currently prohibits local wage minimum wages. Lawmakers in those states should reverse that prohibition.

Step III: Modernize minimum wage policies by establishing stronger mechanisms to adjust the level of the minimum wage over time

In addition to codifying FLSA minimum wage rules, setting an adequate minimum wage level, and closing coverage gaps, there are other steps state lawmakers can take to ensure all workers can afford a decent life and benefit from a growing economy.

1. Set the minimum wage to automatically adjust each year based on growth in prices or median wages—whichever is greatest: Indexing the minimum wage to changes in prices ensures that low-wage workers can buy the same amount of goods and services year after year. But as the economy grows and productivity rises, low-wage workers’ standard of living should improve, not just stay the same. Instead of indexing the minimum wage to price changes, lawmakers can index the minimum wage to changes in the median wage.
   • Linking the minimum wage to the median wage ensures that the gap between the lowest paid job and a “middle-class” job never grows; as a middle-class worker’s pay rises, so would pay for a minimum wage worker.
   • Over the long run, wage growth should outpace price growth, but on a year-over-year basis, that may not be true and in some years, median wages could decline. The law should be written such that the minimum wage never goes down and is raised at least as much as any increase in prices—and more when wage growth exceeds price growth.
2. Establish wage boards to periodically evaluate the strength of the minimum wage overall and for specific industries: In some countries—such as the United Kingdom— minimum wage levels are set by boards or commissions (composed of nonpartisan analysts, worker representatives, and members of the business community) that periodically review the level of the minimum wage and recommend changes. In some states—such as in New York and California—there are wage boards for individual industries, such as fast food, that set minimum wages (and potentially other workplace standards) for all workers in that industry. Policymakers should consider establishing or creating mechanisms allowing for such boards to periodically review whether the state minimum wage level is adequate for workers overall, and/or for those in industries with large numbers of low-wage workers.

Additional recommended resources 

• Why the U.S. needs at least a $17 minimum wage (Economic Policy Institute) 

• The impact of the Raise the Wage Act of 2023 (Economic Policy Institute) 

• Minimum Wage Tracker (Economic Policy Institute) 

• Most minimum wage studies have found little or no job loss (Economic Policy Institute) 

• Minimum Wage for Agricultural Workers (The National Agriculture Law Center) 

• Low Wage Workforce Tracker (Economic Policy Institute) 

Editor’s note: This piece was revised on October 23, 2025, to add an “Additional recommended resources” section.