Summary

Roughly 30,000 farmworkers in Colorado, including 4,400 migrant workers recruited by Colorado employers through the H-2A visa program, are treated unfairly under federal and state law. While Colorado took an important step when the state’s overtime law was reformed to make farmworkers eligible—acknowledging the racist policy enshrined in the federal Fair Labor Standards Act that excluded farmworkers from overtime pay—the law nevertheless continues to treat farmworkers unfairly with limited overtime protections compared to those provided to other workers in Colorado.

Farmworkers are some of the lowest-paid employees in the entire U.S. labor market and suffer from high rates of occupational injuries and death. As discussed in this commentary, growth in farmworkers’ very low wages has tracked very similarly to wage growth of other low-wage workers in recent decades. Yet farmworkers must work dramatically more hours than workers out side of agriculture before they can receive any premium for working long hours. There is no economic justification for this unequal treatment. Further evidence for this is the fact that according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), labor costs as a share of farm income have not increased in two decades.1

This commentary explains and shows that:

• Overtime pay for farmworkers increases productivity and protects employees from being overworked.
• Farmworkers nationwide earned some of the lowest wage rates in the entire U.S. labor market and only three-fifths of what non-farm workers earn.
• Farmworkers in Colorado earn very low wages—half the average wage earned by all workers in Colorado.
• Wage growth over the past 20 years for farmworkers nationwide has been almost identical to wage growth for other low-wage workers outside of agriculture.
• Real wage growth for farmworkers in Colorado has averaged only 1.5% per year between 2010 and 2024.
• The number of Colorado farms has increased significantly over the past 15 years, suggesting a successful and growing industry in the state.
• California overtime pay standards cover more farmworkers than in Colorado, and outcomes there have shown that providing farmworkers with overtime pay protections on par with those applicable to workers outside of agriculture can be achieved without negatively impacting the farm industry.

If SB 26-121 becomes law, the resulting overtime threshold would further degrade standards for some of the lowest-paid and most vulnerable workers in the U.S. labor market, without improving productivity or benefitting the state’s economy. Farmworkers deserve better: they deserve equal rights and equal pay. While there is some cost to paying workers overtime, keeping the threshold where it is or taking it to 40 hours per week will be partially offset with productivity gains and will benefit farmworkers—most of whom are not employed year-round—by relieving some of the pressure they feel to work as many additional hours as possible, to the detriment of their health, safety, and family life—and possibly to the quality of the nation’s food supply.

Introduction

Farm labor is hard work that sometimes requires very long hours. When it does, workers deserve to be paid fairly for their time. The reason a 40-hour overtime threshold for farmworkers is not already the law should make us wince: When the federal law that governs overtime pay was written in the 1930s, it excluded two job categories that were overwhelmingly held by African Americans—farm laborers and domestic workers. States now have an opportunity to right this historic wrong and level the playing field for all workers

Overtime pay for farmworkers increases productivity and protects employees from being overworked

How do farm owners accommodate paying higher weekly wages when they ask their employees to work overtime? There is of course, some expense associated with overtime pay for farmworkers. But it’s not a dollar-for-dollar cost, so the impact is ultimately modest. The reason is increased productivity.

As we have seen in many other instances, when employers are required to pay higher wages, they make a bigger effort to increase the efficiency of the workplace. We’ve seen this when the minimum wage has been increased. We’ve seen it in unionized businesses. And we’ve seen it already on farms in states like New York and California, when farm owners were required to pay overtime.

What does an increase in productivity on farms look like?

Farm owners may invest in equipment that makes work easier and faster for workers. They may also find ways to organize work that is more effective. Paying overtime provides a real incentive for that. And, overtime pay will reduce the cost of recruitment and training, because it will reduce turnover. That’s something farm operators should value since most claim there are too few farmworkers available to fill open positions.

But importantly, it will also ensure that farmworkers do not work excessive hours just to make enough to survive. Farmworkers in Colorado earn wages that are not much above the state minimum wage, and because of the seasonality of farm work, most are not even able to earn those low wages year-round, reducing their earnings even further. Since farmworkers are not able to earn a living wage year-round, they will feel pressure to work additional hours, to the detriment of their health, safety, and family life—and possibly to the quality of the nation’s food supply.

Colorado’s current overtime threshold is also very different than the one in a state like California. In California, farmworkers earn time-and-a-half overtime after 8 hours in a day or 40 hours in a week.2 They also earn double their regular rate of pay after working 12 hours in a day. Colorado’s overtime threshold has no daily limit, only a weekly one. Even with the additional coverage of overtime for California farmworkers, the number of farm establishments has held steady in the state: going from 16,408 in 2015, the year before the California overtime law was passed, to 16,416 in 2024—suggesting that farms have not been negatively impacted and are still able to operate successfully in the nation’s largest agricultural state.3 

Farmworkers earned some of the lowest wage rates in the entire U.S. labor market in 2024 and only three-fifths of what non-farm workers earn

It is important to discuss and contextualize the wages of the 2.2 million farmworkers in the United States,4 roughly 350,000 of whom are crop farmworkers employed through the H-2A visa program.5 DOL’s National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) shows that two-thirds of non-H-2A crop farmworkers are foreign-born, and that one-third are U.S.-born citizens.6

The agricultural industry has made numerous claims about skyrocketing and unsustainable wage growth for farmworkers, and the industry has lobbied at the state and federal level, pushing for federal actions by the executive branch and legislation to artificially restrain wage growth in the industry. As this letter discusses, many of the major claims made by the industry are not supported by the available evidence.

The most reliable data on farmworker earnings comes from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), which conducts the Farm Labor Survey (FLS), the results of which were, until recently, published twice a year in USDA’s Farm Labor report series, with data reported for reference weeks in January, April, July, and October.7 On August 28, 2025, USDA announced that it would discontinue its data collection program and reports, including the FLS,8 thus making 2024 the final full year for which FLS data are available. Before October 2025, FLS data was used by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) to set the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) for most migrant farmworkers hired in the H-2A program. DOL based the AEWR on the average hourly earnings of nonsupervisory field and livestock workers, as reported by farm operators and by region in the FLS. DOL used the FLS data to set H-2A wages so they reflect current real-world trends in the farm labor market.

The FLS data up to 2024 data show that while there have been some documented real increases over the past three decades, they have not been unreasonably large increases, and they have occurred in a broader context where the wages of farmworkers are extremely low by any measure, even when compared with the hourly earnings of comparable non-farm workers, as well as when compared with average wages for all workers in the United States, and workers with the lowest levels of education (see Figure A).

Figure A

In 2024, the average earnings of all nonsupervisory farmworkers (i.e., combined field and livestock workers in the FLS) was $18.12 per hour. The average farmworker hourly wage in 2024 was just half (52%) of the average hourly wage for all workers in the United States in 2024, which was $34.27 per hour.9 The average farmworker hourly wage in Colorado was less than the national farmworker average, at just $17.84 per hour.

The average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory non-farm workers—the most appropriate cohort of nonagricultural workers to compare with farmworkers—was $27.56, according to the Current Employment Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In other words, farmworkers earning the national average earned just under 60% of what production and nonsupervisory workers outside of agriculture earned, or three-fifths. In 2024, the farmworker wage gap remained substantial and virtually unchanged from the previous three years. USDA’s ERS shows that between 1990 and 2023, the gap slowly narrowed from 50% to 60% and has described the wage gap between farmworker and nonfarm worker wages as “still substantial, but it is slowly shrinking.”10 

Farmworkers have very low levels of educational attainment and their wages are comparable to workers in other industries with similar educational attainment. According to the NAWS, 27% completed the 10th, 11th, or 12th grade, and only 16% completed some education beyond high school.11 Farmworkers earn the same or less than the two groups of non-farm workers with the lowest levels of education in the United States: Farmworkers earned 10 cents an hour more than the average wage earned by workers without a high school diploma ($18.02), but earned $5.61 less per hour than the average wage earned by workers with only a high school diploma ($23.73). Farmworkers in Colorado earned less than workers without a high school diploma ($17.84 vs $18.02).

Farmworkers in Colorado earn very low wages—half the average wage earned by all workers in Colorado

There are roughly 30,000 farmworkers in Colorado, including 4,400 migrant workers recruited by Colorado employers through the H-2A visa program. As noted above, in 2024, at the state level in Colorado, USDA’s FLS shows that the average hourly wage for farmworkers in Colorado (the combined average wage for field and livestock workers) was $17.84. Figure A also shows that the average wage for all workers in Colorado in 2024 was $33.63, according to the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.12 In other words, farmworkers just earned 53%, roughly half, of the average wage that all Colorado workers earned.13 And as noted above, most farmworkers are not employed year-round. Despite these extremely low wages, farmworkers in Colorado work in some of the most difficult and dangerous conditions while providing an essential function for the economy and state. Thus they deserve more protections under the overtime law, not fewer.

Industry claims about the increases in farmworker wages ignore the fact that wage growth over the past 20 years has been almost identical to wage growth for other low wage workers

The value and the rate of increase of the Adverse Effect Wage Rage (AEWR) for H-2A farmworkers has become a hot-button issue and many claims about its impact have been made over the years by representatives of industry. These are relevant to examine because the AEWR wages up until 2025 represented the wages that farm operators reported they were paying to their farmworkers in response to the USDA’s Farm Labor Survey. Thus, they represent the best data available on average farm wages at the national and regional level.

Many of the claims about wage growth for farmworkers made by industry advocates and even the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) about year-to-year increases often do not adjust for inflation, which overstates the actual increase in terms of its dollar value. This is a basic mistake that misleads—and it misleads particularly during times of relatively rapid inflation, like the post-pandemic period. DOL echoes these misleading claims from industry advocates and makes their own false claim in the preamble to the October 2025 AEWR Interim Final Rule, making the year-over-year increases in farmworker wages seem greater than they truly are. DOL notes that the national average AEWR—i.e., the average combined field and livestock worker wage reported by farm operators nationwide—has more than doubled in nominal terms over 20 years from $8.56 in 2005 to $17.74 in 2025.14 But DOL’s own CPI Inflation Calculator adjusts the value of $8.56 in September 2005 to $13.99 in September 2025, resulting in a real increase of just over one-quarter over two decades, at 26.8%, which over that period averages out to just 1.2% per year.

If we examine the same period for other low-wage workers in nominal terms, we also see that wage growth for farmworkers as represented by the AEWR, is in line with—nearly identical to—nominal wage growth for other low wage workers in the United States. Figure B below shows annualized wage growth for workers paid at the 20^th percentile wage, as well as the median wage for workers with less than a high school education—both of which are good measures for typical low-wage workers. Both saw annual nominal wage growth that was at 3.5% between 2005-2025, the period that DOL identifies. Farmworkers earning the national average farmworker wage—over that same period saw annualized wage growth of 3.7%, nearly identical to other typical low-wage workers. Thus, DOL’s main example in its H-2A wage regulation of runaway wage growth for farmworkers does not hold water.

Figure B

Real wage growth for farmworkers in Colorado has averaged only 1.5% per year between 2010 and 2024

While Figure B looked at nominal wage growth over the past 20 years, EPI has previously calculated the total real wage growth for farmworkers (i.e., after adjusting for inflation) in every state between 2010 and 2024.15 We found that in Colorado, the average farmworker wage in 2010 was $14.51 (adjusted to 2024 dollars), growing to $17.84 fifteen years later in 2024. This amounts to a total increase of $3.33 over 15 years (in 2024 dollars), or 22.9%. Farmworkers in Colorado averaged a real wage increase of 1.5% per year over the 15-year period.

The number of Colorado farms has increased significantly over the past 15 years, suggesting a successful agricultural industry in the state

One common argument from farm operators is that if the wages of farmworkers are too high, those high wages will put them out of business. But according to the BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), the number of agricultural establishments in Colorado has increased significantly over the past 15 years. QCEW data show that the number of agricultural establishments in Colorado averaged 1,412 between 2010 and 2012. By 2024, the number of agricultural establishments had increased to 1,812, an increase of 28.3%. The 2022-2024 average number of agricultural establishments was 1,856.16

Agribusiness representatives may claim that agricultural establishments in Colorado will be forced to close or will decide to move their operations to other U.S. states because of higher labor costs associated with farmworkers being entitled to overtime pay, but the reality is that the number of agricultural establishments has been increasing steadily, even as farmworker wages have risen modestly, suggesting that both farm owners and farmworkers can mutually benefit from a growing industry.

Conclusion: The Colorado legislature should not further degrade standards on farms by expanding the 56-hour overtime threshold—and should instead provide farmworkers with equal rights in the workplace by providing them overtime after 40 hours

The annual average real wage growth of 1.5% per year over 15 years represents moderate wage growth for farmworkers and suggests a relatively tight labor market for farmworkers. However, it represents little improvement in job quality for workers that have been exempted from key labor laws and wage and hour standards, who frequently toil for long hours in difficult conditions without any pay premium, and who consequently still earn only 50% to 60% of the wage earned by comparable nonsupervisory workers outside of agriculture (see Figure A and discussion above). It would take many more years of comparatively faster wage growth for farmworkers to begin to approach even three-fourths of what nonsupervisory workers earn outside of agriculture.

Further degrading standards for some of the lowest-paid and most vulnerable workers in the U.S. labor market will not improve productivity or benefit the state’s economy; it will do the opposite, taking money out the pockets of workers who live paycheck to paycheck and spend those earnings on necessary goods and services. All while making a minimal impact on the overall share of farm income that farm operators spend on workers’ wages.

Instead of passing SB 26-121, the state legislature should set a reasonable minimum standard for the wages paid to farmworkers, and that standard should be no different than the standard set for most other workers in Colorado, which is a 40-hour overtime threshold.

Endnotes 

1. Economic Research Service, “Labor Cost Share of Total Gross Revenues,” in “Farm Labor,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, Updated November 18, 2025.

2. See Department of Industrial Relations, “Overtime for Agricultural Workers,” State of California, last updated October 2023.

3. See Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Series Id: ENU5100020511, Series Title: Number of Establishments in Private NAICS 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, for all establishment sizes in California – Statewide; Owner: Private, for 2010-24.

4. As counted by the latest Census of Agriculture from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022.

5. See Daniel Costa and Ben Zipperer, “Trump’s new H-2A wage rule will radically cut the wages of all farmworkers: New estimates show farmworkers stand to lose $4.4 to $5.4 billion annually under DOL’s updated Adverse Effect Wage Rate,” Working Economics blog (Economic Policy Institute), November 26, 2025.

6. Wenson Fung, Kimberly Prado, Amanda Gold, Andrew Padovani, Daniel Carroll, and Emily Finchum-Mason, Findings from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 2021–2022: A Demographic and Employment Profile of United States Crop Workers, Research Report no. 17, JBS International for the Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. September 2023.

7. See National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Agricultural (Farm) Labor,” for more background and to access Farm Labor Reports, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

8. Federal Policy Watch, “USDA ends the Agricultural (Farm) Labor Survey, the U.S.’s only survey of agricultural employers,” Economic Policy Institute, September 3, 2025.

9. Economic Policy Institute, State of Working America Data Library, “Hourly wage, average – Average real hourly wage (2024$),” 2025.

10. Economic Research Service, “Wages of Hired Farmworkers” in “Farm Labor,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, Updated November 18, 2025.

11. Wenson Fung, Kimberly Prado, Amanda Gold, Andrew Padovani, Daniel Carroll, and Emily Finchum-Mason, Findings from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 2021–2022: A Demographic and Employment Profile of United States Crop Workers, Research Report no. 17, JBS International for the Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. September 2023.

12. https://data.bls.gov/oes/#/area/0800000

13. A note about the data: The wage cited is for Colorado farmworkers in USDA’s FLS represents the wage reported for the Mountain II region, which surveys farm operators in Colorado, Nevada, Utah. USDA’s FLS conducts wage surveys by multistate region, except for California which USDA surveys as its own individual region.

14. Employment and Training Administration, Adverse Effect Wage Rate Methodology for the Temporary Employment of H-2A Nonimmigrants in Non-Range Occupations in the United States, U.S. Department of Labor, Interim Final Rule, 90 Fed. Reg. 47914, at 47923 (October 2, 2025).

15. See Table 1 in Daniel Costa, EPI comment on DOL’s 2025 Interim Final Rule modifying the AEWR methodology for H-2A farmworkers, Economic Policy Institute, December 1, 2025.

16. See Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Series Id: ENU5100020511, Series Title: Number of Establishments in Private NAICS 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, for all establishment sizes in Colorado – Statewide; Owner: Private, for 2010-24.

While U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen during the last three decades, the South has retained the largest share of manufacturing employment of any region. In 2024, 35% of U.S. manufacturing employment was in the South. Since 2010, manufacturing employment in the South has grown by 17%, the quickest growth of any region.

Yet, Southern workers and communities have failed to substantially benefit from new manufacturing investments. Instead, a long-standing Southern economic development model has prioritized corporate power and profits over communities.

The report shows that community benefits agreements (CBAs) are one key tool to ensure that new industrial investments generate good manufacturing jobs that pay a living wage, expand pathways to unionization, and deliver broadly shared economic benefits for local communities. CBAs are legally enforceable private agreements between a company or developer and a coalition of labor unions and community groups that ensure new or expanding facilities generate good jobs, protect local resources, and invest in community needs. Because CBAs are private agreements between labor-community coalitions and project owners, they do not rely on government action and can therefore shape economic outcomes of major projects even in otherwise hostile political environments.

The fights to secure these gains can also help forge strong, durable labor-community coalitions needed to reshape the political fabric of Southern communities and increase working people’s influence over broader state or regional economic policy decisions.

“Community benefits agreements are powerful tools for Southern labor and community groups to build the shared power necessary to reshape local and eventually regional economies. Strong CBAs can secure measurable economic benefits like higher wages, respect for workers’ rights to unionize, local or targeted hiring, protection of natural resources, and more affordable housing,” said Sebastian Martinez Hickey, EPI’s state economic analyst and co-author of the report. “These economic gains are beneficial in themselves, but the formation of a community benefits coalition can also help build the labor-community power necessary to change the Southern status quo.”

Rising authoritarianism and the need to upend the failed Southern economic development model

For generations, Southern politicians backed by powerful business interests have promoted a Southern economic development model—characterized by low wages, regressive taxation, lax environmental regulations, a weak social safety net, and vicious opposition to unions—while claiming such policies will attract business and thereby generate regional economic gains. But data actually show a grim reality. The South lags all other regions on most indicators of economic health including job growth and wages, and Southern workers and their families experience significantly higher rates of poverty than in other parts of the country (Childers 2024a).

The truth is that this Southern economic development model was never designed to benefit most Southerners; rather, it is historically rooted in efforts of white plantation owners to retain their wealth following emancipation and ensure continued access to the labor of Black people for as little compensation as possible (Childers 2025). Foundational to these efforts was an authoritarian approach to state governance that suppressed popular democracy and worker organizing—an approach that also sanctioned prison labor, sharecropping, a century of Jim Crow laws, lynching, and other forms of state-sponsored terror and exploitation. Until partially challenged by federal legal and policy interventions won by post-WWII civil rights movements, many Southern states for decades held elections that served merely to provide a cover of legitimacy to one-party rule of white, wealthy elites—functionally excluding Black voters from the electorate and blocking working-class constituencies from any meaningful participation in governance (Mickey 2015; Perez 2024; Mast 2025).

Today, the Trump administration’s increasingly authoritarian actions echo this troubling Southern history. At their foundation, the administration’s approaches to bypassing constitutional checks and balances—while rolling back civil rights, worker rights, and environmental protections; terrorizing immigrant communities; deploying military troops in U.S. cities; and attempting to engineer election outcomes via gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression—are rooted in authoritarian models developed and tested in the U.S. South, and that Black, brown, and immigrant communities across the country are no stranger to.

Recent attempts to terminate federal employee collective bargaining agreements, for example, are familiar to public employees in Southern states for whom collective bargaining has long been banned or severely restricted. The Trump administration’s use of military-style policing in communities across the country echoes Southern histories of weaponizing law enforcement (or National Guard troops) to suppress organizing and instill fear, while prioritizing the expansion of the carceral state over investments in housing, education, and public services. Trump’s efforts to override the authority of state officials mirror Southern state uses of abusive preemption laws to strip policymaking authority from local governments. And administration attempts to halt clean energy investments and environmental protections threaten to repeat harms familiar in Black and brown communities in the South, where corporations have insisted on lax environmental regulations that allow them to degrade air, water, and climate quality, while profiting from the exploitation of local natural resources and labor.

Seizing opportunities to reverse decades of anti-worker, anti-democratic policymaking in the South at a moment of rising authoritarianism in the U.S. is a daunting and unavoidably urgent challenge. It will require robust new forms of multiracial organizing and labor-community coalition building across a broad set of industries in the South. Labor-community coalitions can leverage community benefits agreements (CBAs) as a powerful tool to transform economic power relations in Southern workplaces and communities. Because CBAs are private agreements between labor-community coalitions and project owners, they do not rely on government action and can therefore shape economic outcomes of major projects even in otherwise hostile political environments. CBAs have traditionally been fought for and won by labor and community groups coming together and building necessary public pressure to hold developers, corporations, and elected leaders accountable for ensuring that public investments in major new developments truly benefit workers and communities.

In this report, we analyze the potential for labor-community coalitions to pursue strong CBAs that secure significant economic benefits for Southern manufacturing workers and communities, drawing on examples of existing agreements to model potential impacts. We examine the scale of recent public investments in Southern manufacturing and examine how strong CBAs on major publicly-subsidized private projects could improve the quality of newly created construction and production jobs; open up pathways to unionization; ensure equitable hiring and training opportunities for local residents; and address community needs such as child care, affordable housing, and natural resource protection.

We contend that upending the failed Southern economic development model and the authoritarian structures that underpin it will require building new forms of labor and community power to increase union density in the South. Well-known research shows that unions promote economic equality and help workers win improvements in pay, benefits, and working conditions (Economic Policy Institute 2021). But unions also powerfully affect people’s lives outside of work. They help foster solidarity, increase democratic participation, enable working-class communities to shape economic policies affecting their lives, and serve as a counterweight to corporate power in our economy and democracy (McNicholas et al. 2025). Historically, unions have been engines of resistance to entrenched and undemocratic power—mobilizing working people to challenge inequality, defend civil rights, and push back against authoritarianism in all its forms. For all these reasons, strengthening labor-community coalitions and pathways to unionization in growing Southern industrial sectors is not just good economic policy—it is also a democratic imperative amid national authoritarian backsliding.

Worker and community power can ensure new manufacturing investments yield good jobs and community benefits

The latest wave of manufacturing growth in the South presents both opportunities and pitfalls for workers and communities. Southern states continue to lure businesses—including large manufacturing facilities—with promises of low corporate tax rates, low wages, lax regulations, and massive public subsidies. The automotive manufacturing industry has been a key recipient of public subsidies, receiving billions of dollars from Southern states in recent decades (Childers 2024a; Todd 2021). This system of low taxation and corporate giveaways starves other essential public goods, like education and social safety net programs (Mast 2025b). Likewise, weak or nonexistent environmental regulations have contributed to toxic sites and resource degradation that disproportionately affect Black and brown families, reflecting often intentional decisions to site hazardous facilities in low-income communities of color (Bergman 2019).

Some announced manufacturing projects have been cancelled or reduced in size after the Trump administration’s slashing of federal supports for strategic industries, but many projects launched during the Biden administration continue to move forward. These manufacturing investments, both in traditional industries and nascent ones such as electric vehicle (EV) and EV battery manufacturing, are spurring significant job growth in some Southern communities. Yet past experience shows that new investments and resulting jobs are unlikely to generate economic benefits for most Southerners unless local residents are able to ensure that developers and corporations respect workers’ rights, protect local natural resources, and contribute a fair share toward addressing priority community needs.

Community benefits agreements can be powerful vehicles for communities to secure lasting local economic benefits from major industrial development, at both new and existing facilities. A CBA is a legally enforceable contract between a private developer or company and a local coalition—typically made up of labor, community, faith, environmental, and other grassroots organizations—that details how a project will benefit workers and the community, and in turn how the community will support the project (including via potential public investment). Benefits spelled out in a CBA can include commitments to strong labor standards; respect for workers’ rights to organize; equitable workforce recruitment, training, and hiring practices; affordable housing; environmental protections; or a broad range of other community-identified priorities. CBAs are a well-developed model for responsible community development—so far mostly, but not entirely, in regions outside the South—and have been used for many different types of major projects including sports stadiums, events centers, manufacturing plants, airports, transit projects, and more (WRI n.d.).

CBAs can likewise mitigate risks for project developers by ensuring local project support and addressing important concerns early on, whereas failure to engage local communities in major development decisions can otherwise lead to strong community opposition, interruption of development, obstacles to obtaining necessary siting permits or rezoning approvals, or significant legal costs. In an example from June 2024, developers shelved plans for a $1.3 billion data center in Indiana after facing significant local opposition over environmental concerns (Fazili et al. 2025).

Because a CBA is a private, legally binding agreement, it does not require government action and can be used to shape outcomes of major projects even in contexts (as in most of the South) where state legislators have preempted local governments from establishing their own job quality or environmental standards (EPI 2025a). That being said, state and local governments can still have a role in facilitating, negotiating, or enforcing community benefits. Cities like Detroit and Cleveland have ordinances requiring developers of projects using public resources to engage in a community benefits plan process (City of Detroit n.d.; City of Cleveland n.d.). In 2005, Atlanta passed an ordinance specifying worker and community benefits for the Beltline redevelopment (WRI 2025). However, government involvement in community benefits plans does not guarantee strong agreements on its own. A strong labor-community coalition remains essential for securing meaningful community benefits.

Another key strength of a CBA is that it can set standards across all stages of a project’s development to ensure long-term benefits for the community at large. Private developers or public entities sometimes negotiate Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) or Community Workforce Agreements (CWAs) with building trades unions and community partners to set wages, working conditions, and timelines for the construction phase of a complex development project. A CBA can be negotiated alongside a PLA to also ensure pathways to quality jobs for local residents during the operational phases of a project, including any future expansions of the facility or additions to its workforce. A CBA can also secure commitments to build affordable housing, strengthen environmental standards, and provide other benefits to the community such as child care, public parks, or other community spaces.

To be successful, a CBA must also include defined enforcement mechanisms that hold all parties to the agreement accountable. It must clearly establish the obligations of each party, metrics for measuring progress, and ongoing monitoring of compliance with the agreement’s provisions (Last 2025; PWF and CBLC 2016). If the company or the coalition fails to make good-faith efforts on the agreement’s commitments, an arbitration process is initiated. While monitoring of the agreement is an ongoing responsibility of all members of the coalition, providing a pathway for workers to organize in the operational phase of a project is of particular importance. A newly established union at the project site is well-positioned to monitor the commitments of the CBA and hold the company accountable over the long term.

Organizers and advocates should be clear-eyed that while strong CBAs can yield powerful economic outcomes, such agreements are by no means easy to win. There are generally no legal requirements for a particular company or developer to recognize or engage with a labor-community coalition, much less to agree to negotiate and implement a CBA. Building the broad-based, durable coalitions and leverage necessary to compel private interests to engage in CBA negotiations (and then to implement and enforce the terms of a CBA) is unavoidably a challenging, long-term, resource-intensive organizing project. And like any worthwhile organizing, the formation of strong, durable labor-community coalitions is itself a key outcome of successful CBA campaigns. Vastly expanding the capacity of broad-based coalitions and labor, faith, environmental, and other grassroots organizations to gradually build community and worker power in Southern communities is the most essential ingredient for transforming existing power imbalances and, ultimately, upending the failed Southern economic development model.

Indeed, recent initiatives to win CBAs in Southern states have proven so threatening to some corporate interests that they have sought to undermine them. In 2025, Tennessee Republicans passed legislation prohibiting any company that enters into a CBA from receiving state economic development funds—aiming to create obstacles to replication of a highly successful CBA covering Nashville’s soccer stadium, and to discourage a coalition of West Tennessee residents and allied groups calling on Ford and SK Innovation to negotiate a CBA covering its massive BlueOval electric vehicle and battery manufacturing complex (Abrams 2025). In Tennessee and elsewhere, however, labor-community coalitions are nonetheless continuing to organize to ensure that massive, publicly subsidized new facilities yield good jobs and community benefits.

A new wave of Southern manufacturing is an opportunity to transform working conditions in growing industries—and across the South

Growth in Southern manufacturing industries presents a significant opportunity for labor-community coalitions to shape labor standards and community benefits in new plants and facilities—and to shape economic outcomes for generations of Southern workers to come. In recent years, the South has seen a wave of manufacturing investments. Between 2017 and 2023, manufacturing construction doubled in the East South Central Census division (Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi) (O’Brien 2023). The West South Central division (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas) has the highest amount of manufacturing construction spending of any division in the U.S. These investments are part of a long-term trend of manufacturing industries locating in the South, which in recent years was accelerated by large federal investments through the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and CHIPS and Science Act. These federal investments included both direct public subsidies and tax credits to businesses that invested in key clean energy manufacturing industries such as the production of batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind energy products.

In contrast to the typical economic development approach of many Southern states, some recent federal investments have included incentives meant to encourage strong labor standards on projects receiving public funds. While the future of many of these investments (and accompanying incentives) is now uncertain, the U.S. has in the past two years experienced its largest investment in clean energy manufacturing ever, and much of that has occurred in Southern states.1 Since the third quarter of 2023, more than $125 billion worth of clean energy manufacturing investments were announced across Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas (CET 2025). Advancing even a portion of these projects would result in thousands of jobs for Southern workers.

Independent of the future of federal support for clean energy manufacturing, the South will likely continue to be the largest manufacturing employer of all U.S. regions. Figure A shows manufacturing employment by region in the United States since 1990. While manufacturing employment overall has fallen during the last three decades, the South has retained the largest share of manufacturing employment of any region. In 2024, 35% of U.S. manufacturing employment was in the South. Furthermore, since 2010, manufacturing employment in the South has grown by 17%, the quickest growth of any region.

Figure A

Manufacturing jobs are often considered to be well-paid, benefit-providing “middle-class” jobs, but there is nothing inherent to the sector that determines their quality. Manufacturing jobs in some industries became “good jobs” thanks to relatively high levels of unionization during the mid-20th century, which improved wages, benefits, and working conditions (Bayard et al. 2024; Rhinehart and McNicholas 2020). As Figure B shows, unionization in manufacturing has fallen in all regions since 1983, but the South has almost without exception had the lowest unionization rate of any region.

Conservative Southern policymakers have long been hostile to union organizing. For example, every Southern state except Maryland and Delaware has passed anti-union so-called right-to-work (RTW) laws, which make it harder for workers to form, join, and sustain unions. Southern states like Florida and Arkansas were among the first to pass such laws in the 1940s, amid a wave of big business backlash against new federal labor laws and white supremacist campaigns to maintain racial hierarchies and suppress multiracial worker organizing. RTW laws suppress unionization rates and, as a result, have driven down wages for both union and nonunion workers alike across the South (Sherer and Gould 2025; Childers 2023).

Figure B

In 2025, Southern manufacturing had a 6.7% unionization rate—slightly below the national unionization rate for private-sector workers (6.8%). Unionization in Southern manufacturing grew by more than a percentage point between 2024 and 2025, a notable one-year reversal of the industry’s long-standing unionization decline, consistent with overall union gains in the South (McNicholas, Poydock, and Shierholz 2026). Nevertheless, Southern manufacturing’s unionization rate remains well below the Midwest’s (11.2%), the region where manufacturing is the most heavily unionized. Unions have a strong impact on job quality because they leverage worker power collectively to raise wages, win benefits like health care and retirement, and enact other meaningful workplace improvements, such as improved health and safety standards. These benefits can extend beyond unionized workers themselves, helping set standards across a workplace, and with enough density, across an industry.

As unionization declines in an industry or region, so does job quality. For instance, as unionization rates have fallen in auto manufacturing, the pay advantage for auto workers compared with the median worker has declined significantly (Barrett and Bivens 2021). Figure C demonstrates how this relationship holds across regions in 2025. Manufacturing jobs in the South have a pay advantage of 7%, the lowest of any region. Southern manufacturing workers also experience the lowest median hourly pay of any region ($24.41).2

Figure C

The Southern economic development model clearly hurts the region’s workers by denying them their right to organize and suppressing their wages, but there are harmful spillover effects for their communities as well. Corporate tax breaks with no strings attached provide billions of dollars to corporations that could otherwise be used to invest in schools and other essential government services. These types of tax breaks might be worthy of consideration if manufacturing employers were required to create high-quality jobs for local workers and make long-term investments in local community development needs (i.e., housing, infrastructure, education, etc.). Without such protections, they are simply taxpayer-funded giveaways that often drain the very resources needed to develop the local workforce recruited by large new facilities.

Southern states enact little to no regulation of workplace safety or environmental pollution. This results in unsafe workplaces with greater levels of injury and death (Childers 2024a). Environmental pollution from manufacturing sites can negatively affect public health by contaminating water, air, and soil. New manufacturing investments also can mean significant changes to the demand for housing in a community. A new plant or factory can drive up the cost of living for nearby residents without yielding any economic benefits to a local community. Labor, community, and environmental groups need to collaborate on shared solutions to effectively address these intertwined challenges.

Labor-community coalitions can obtain commitments that ensure “economic development” means shared prosperity for all

Labor-community coalitions organizing around manufacturing projects can secure commitments that offer direct economic benefits to workers and communities, while also establishing groundwork for the growth of worker and community power in the area. While a campaign to win a CBA can be the impetus for forming a local labor-community coalition, the alignment and relationships built through this shared work can lead to longer-term, sustainable coalitions capable of transforming local and state power relationships.

The following section analyzes a set of commitments that can be included in a CBA for a manufacturing project. The CBA framework is flexible and allows for the inclusion of many different types of commitments prioritized by particular groups of workers, community members, and environmental groups. This report focuses on key types of commitments including union neutrality agreements, living wage floors, equitable workforce development practices (such as local or targeted hire policies and programs to expand pathways to apprenticeship training), affordable housing provisions, child care benefits, and environmental protections. Each type of commitment is analyzed in terms of its economic impacts and effectiveness in reshaping local economic development to ensure that public investments generate broadly shared community benefits.

The construction phase and Project Labor Agreements (PLA)

This report mostly focuses on community benefits for workers during the operational phase of a manufacturing plant. Nevertheless, it is just as vital to set high labor standards during the construction phase. Strong community benefits agreements are ideally developed in tandem with strong project construction labor standards set via project labor agreements (PLAs). A PLA is a multiparty agreement between a project owner and a coalition of labor unions that sets out labor standards and dispute resolution procedures to promote stability and efficiency on complex infrastructure projects while also ensuring the project will generate good jobs. PLAs ensure that construction projects run smoothly, are safer, and pay workers fairly (Mangundayao, McNicholas, and Poydock 2022). By setting negotiated wage and benefit levels for each type of work on a project, PLAs level the playing field in highly competitive construction bidding processes; they ensure that contractors base bids on their ability to deliver on quality and efficiency, rather than low-ball cost estimates that reflect intent to pay substandard wages or cut corners on safety. By standardizing wage and benefit levels and taking them out of the competition in the bidding process, PLAs incentivize the use of skilled union labor, which is 14% more productive than nonunionized construction work (McFadden, Santosh, and Shetty 2022). PLAs typically set wages, fringe benefits, and working conditions but can also include requirements to utilize certain numbers of apprentices, hire locally or from certain target worker populations, and/or provide child care or other benefits that open up pathways to good union construction jobs for members of underrepresented groups.

Several of the types of standards for construction workers typically included in a PLA have analogous labor standards in the operational phase. For instance, a CBA can secure commitments for local or targeted hiring and the development of registered apprenticeship programs in a manufacturing facility, extending equitable recruitment and high-quality training requirements that a PLA typically sets for construction into the operational phase of a project.

Removing obstacles to unionization: Neutrality and labor peace agreements

Protecting workers’ freedom to unionize has historically been key to turning manufacturing jobs into good jobs. This remains just as true today. However, like workers across the country, Southern manufacturing workers continue to face formidable obstacles—including weak labor laws, powerful anti-union corporations, and hostile politicians—to exercising their legally protected rights to form or join a union. Employers are charged with violating federal labor law in more than 40% of union elections and spend more than $400 million a year on “union avoidance” consultants (McNicholas et al. 2019; McNicholas et al. 2023). Because existing weak labor laws do not effectively deter employers from union busting, these tactics are treated by many employers as a normal cost of doing business—stacking the deck unfairly against workers seeking to exercise their rights to organize and collectively bargain.

Union neutrality agreements can help safeguard workers’ right to form unions free of the types of interference employers often deploy. Under a neutrality agreement, an employer agrees to remain “neutral” and not interfere with workers’ decisions on whether to unionize. Such agreements typically include joint commitments to a “card check” process for verifying whether a majority of employees have indicated interest in forming a union. Unions and employers sometimes also enter into a labor peace agreement, where unions agree not to engage in certain types of picketing, work stoppages, or other economic disruptions during the organizing process in exchange for employer neutrality.

Employers can also choose to commit to union neutrality as a matter of principle or company policy. Union neutrality—providing workers a more free and fair choice to decide whether to unionize—has been a key component of successful unionization drives in Southern manufacturing. To take two recent examples:

• In 2024, workers at the Volkswagen (VW) Chattanooga plant voted to join the United Auto Workers. Like many European corporations, the German-based VW has an established policy of maintaining neutrality in union election processes, although workers still voiced concerns that in its U.S. facilities, VW management tried to intimidate and dissuade workers from forming a union (Bomey 2024).
• In tandem with community benefits agreement negotiations with New Flyer in Anniston, Alabama, the United Steel Workers and Communications Workers of America negotiated three neutrality agreements with New Flyer and its subsidiaries in 2022. Over the two years that followed, these union neutrality agreements enabled workers to pursue five successful union drives, including at the New Flyer facility in Alabama (Last 2025; Sasha 2024).

Successful recent instances of union organizing in Southern manufacturing facilities have been powerful enough to generate their own backlash. Because of the threat that union neutrality agreements represent to the reigning Southern economic development model, several conservative state legislatures in the South have used model legislation developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council to pass laws intended to interfere with these agreements (Sachs 2024). While the legality of such measures remains in question and has not yet been tested, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia now all have legislation in place stating that employers who agree to a union neutrality agreement will be barred from receiving state economic development funds, disincentivizing companies from participating in these agreements (Stephenson 2024).

Importance of unionization to improve manufacturing jobs and wages

Securing unionization in Southern manufacturing can have significant wage benefits for workers. Unionized manufacturing jobs are more likely to provide family-sustaining wages. Unionization in manufacturing is associated with a 17.9% wage premium for workers (Scott et al. 2022). This means that compared with similar workers in terms of education, occupation, experience, race, and ethnicity, unionized manufacturing workers are paid almost a fifth more per hour than their nonunionized counterparts.

Table 1 translates this union premium into how much more unionized workers in the South could make on an hourly, annual, and plant-wide basis. The average nonunionized manufacturing worker in the South earns $34.50 an hour, so with the typical union premium, that worker would be earning an additional $6.18 an hour. If that worker works full time, year-round, the hourly premium translates to $12,846 more a year. To illustrate the potential impact of unionization in an entire plant, we take the example of the BlueOval auto manufacturing investment in Tennessee, which is projected to create 6,000 jobs (TN Office of Governor 2023). For a plant of that size, unionization could mean more than $77 million in additional wages for workers.

Table 1

Wage gains from successful unionization are not hypothetical for manufacturing workers in the South. For example, in 2024, workers at New Flyer in Anniston, Alabama, ratified a union contract with significant pay raises, with some workers gaining raises of up to 38% through 2026 (CWA 2024). Establishing a union contract with transparent pay ladders will also help New Flyer workers combat persistent pay gaps between white and Black workers in Anniston’s manufacturing industry (Erickson 2021).

The benefits of unionization go far beyond hourly wage increases. The workers at New Flyer also achieved significant gains in terms of vacation time and retirement contributions. Unionized workers secure critical benefits like health care and sick days at greater rates than their nonunion peers. Adjusting for differences in industry, sector, and region, union workers are 18.3% more likely to have employer-covered health insurance than their nonunion counterparts (EPI 2021). Almost 9 in 10 private-sector union workers have paid sick days, compared with less than three-fourths of nonunion private-sector workers (EPI 2021).

Unions also contribute to safer and healthier working conditions across a wide range of industries (Dean, McCallum, and Venkataramani 2022). By strengthening workers’ voice on the job, unions empower workers to report safety issues and demand better protocols. One example of this is that unionized construction sites experience significantly lower rates of Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) violations than nonunionized sites (Manzo IV, Jekot, and Bruno 2021). This is despite the fact that unionized workplaces actually experience greater rates of OSHA inspections than other workplaces, likely because many unions maintain active health and safety committees and because unionized workers have greater access to education on how to recognize safety hazards and are less afraid of reprisals from their employer for reporting them (Leigh and Chakalov 2021).

As the New Flyer agreement demonstrates, a strong CBA includes (or is negotiated in tandem with) union neutrality commitments ensuring that workers have a free and fair choice to unionize, without employer interference or retaliation. Securing a pathway to unionization can provide direct benefits to workers at a particular facility, while also increasing local organizing capacity and coalition strength for future negotiations over new projects and local development decisions. Not only is a new union a legally recognized institution that can monitor and hold the company accountable for commitments in the CBA, but it can also play a critical role in amplifying demands of workers and communities outside of the workplace and building power for working people more broadly.

Living wage floor

CBAs can also include commitments to minimum wage floors for the workers who will operate a new facility. For example, the 2018 Nashville Soccer CBA in Tennessee included a commitment to an hourly wage of at least $15.50 for stadium workers (SUN 2018). This provision set the stadium’s wage floor well above the minimum wage in Nashville, where workers—like all Tennessee workers and many across the South—are otherwise subject to the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.

If a wage floor set by a CBA is high enough, it can help workers achieve a living wage in the place that they live. What constitutes a living wage must be determined by labor and community partners (Gould, Mokhiber, and DeCourcy 2024). For example, a living wage could be defined narrowly as covering the necessities for a single adult, or more broadly as including the needs of a working parent and their children. A living wage target must also make assumptions about nonwage income such as health care benefits and government transfers. Manufacturing workers in the South can also rightfully seek wages that not only cover bare necessities but provide the family-sustaining resources needed to be healthy and thrive.

Figure D shows the share of manufacturing workers in the South earning less than $30 an hour, or $62,400 a year in wages for a full-time worker. More than 3 in 5 (60.8%) manufacturing workers in the region earn less than $30 an hour. Around 80% of Southern Black and Hispanic manufacturing workers earn below the $30 threshold. Women in manufacturing are also more likely to earn below $30 an hour (71.8%) than men (59.1%).

Figure D

A $30 wage floor exceeds the minimum costs for a single adult in most jurisdictions in the U.S., but still barely covers needs for many families with children in manufacturing-dense counties nationwide. EPI’s Family Budget Calculator estimates living wage standards by county that cover modest but necessary costs families face like food, rent, and transportation in the United States. Table 2 shows three Southern counties with significant clean energy manufacturing investments in recent years (CET 2025). Each county has significant manufacturing employment, exceeding the U.S. average for manufacturing employment density. For each county, living wage standards from the Family Budget Calculator are listed for different family types. In Morgan County, Georgia, and Maury County, Tennessee, a single adult with a child must earn at least $30 an hour to cover basic needs. For a single economic provider to cover the costs of a four-person family, they must earn over $35 an hour in all the counties listed. These living wage standards indicate that a $30 wage floor would provide significant economic security for workers with smaller families or multiple wage-earners.

Table 2

A CBA that secures a strong living wage standard in a manufacturing facility can create a virtuous cycle that brings about greater prosperity in the area. Higher wages for low- and middle-income workers boost spending in the local economy because these workers spend a greater share of their paycheck than high-income workers (Anderson 2014). Other employers in the area might have to raise their wages to compete for workers with the CBA-bound employer. The establishment of a living wage also demonstrates to other workers in the area that higher wages are a feasible goal through collective action.

Local and/or targeted hire policies

Local and targeted hiring refers to policies that prioritize recruitment of individuals from the local community, or workers from specific groups who are otherwise underrepresented in a given workforce relative to local population demographics, such as women, people of color, veterans, low-income workers, formerly incarcerated workers, or workers with disabilities (Lawliss, Finfer, and Sherer 2022). A local hire policy can require that a certain percentage of hours worked on a project be completed by local workers. These policies can also require giving local workers the first option to apply for jobs on a project. For the prosperity created through manufacturing investments in the South to be shared equitably, it is important that local community members have access to the jobs that are created during both the construction and operation phases of a development. Workforce policies also should be designed to remove barriers to employment for groups of workers—especially workers of color and women—who have historically been excluded from many construction and manufacturing career opportunities. Increasing access to these well-paying jobs can increase economic mobility for workers with more limited opportunities.

Despite these benefits, some state policymakers have been hostile to local hire as a public policy. In 2015, Nashville voters passed a ballot initiative that required city-funded construction projects to dedicate 40% of construction hours to Nashville residents, with 25% of those hours going to low-income Nashville residents (Blair et al. 2020). The Tennessee state legislature then quickly passed a bill that preempted the city from creating its own local hire policy.

As Figure E shows, the harm of Tennessee’s preemption of local hire falls disproportionately on workers of color. The construction workforce in the Nashville metro area has a higher share of workers of color and immigrant workers compared with the state construction workforce overall. Black workers are 8.2% of the construction workforce in Davidson County, but 5.5% of the overall state workforce. More than half (51.5%) of construction workers in Davidson County are Hispanic, compared with less than a quarter (20.1%) of the state overall. Davidson County construction workers are also more than twice as likely to be immigrants (40.2%) than in all of Tennessee (14.8%). State preemption of local hire prevented Nashville from ensuring that public spending would benefit local workers. However, private agreements like CBAs offer an opportunity to incorporate local hire and/or targeted hire requirements into publicly subsidized developments, even in heavily preempted jurisdictions.

Figure E

In 2018, three years after the preemption of Nashville’s local hire policy, the labor-community coalition Stand Up Nashville was able to leverage $275 million in public subsidies for a new professional soccer stadium into a successful CBA (SUN 2018). The Nashville Soccer CBA included commitments to local hire for stadium workers, particularly workers from “Promise Zones,” i.e., high-poverty areas with fewer economic opportunities (SUN 2020). Through the CBA, Nashville Soccer Holding, LLC agreed to consider qualified Promise Zone resident referrals for jobs at the stadium. So far, the program has succeeded in hiring Promise Zone residents. In 2023, Nashville Soccer Club had hired 180 employees, 80 of whom were residents of Promise Zones (SUN 2023).

CBAs in the South and throughout the country are securing similar commitments to local and targeted hiring in clean energy and manufacturing investments. In Alabama, the New Flyer CBA commits the company to ensuring that at least 45% of new hires and 20% of promotions are members of “Historically Disadvantaged Groups” (Sabin 2022).4 In Massachusetts, a new offshore wind terminal entered into a CBA with the City of Salem—setting targets for hiring of local workers, workers of color, and women workers (Sabin 2024). The CBA for Maine Aqua Ventis, an offshore wind facility, includes local hiring opportunities for residents of Monhegan, Maine (Sabin 2017). 

These types of agreements help ensure that local residents benefit from large investments in their communities, particularly when policymakers have invested public dollars in the form of tax breaks or corporate subsidies to support a new facility. Ensuring local workers are prioritized in training programs and hiring processes for newly created jobs also helps community members stay in the area when housing costs are driven up by a large new manufacturing investment. And in the longer term, providing pathways for local workers to benefit directly from these investments strengthens the labor and community alliances needed to hold developers and corporations accountable over time.

Equitable workforce development through apprenticeships and pre-apprenticeships

In addition to local hire policies, which help create equitable pathways for local workers to secure good jobs at a manufacturing site, construction and manufacturing projects require a skilled workforce to operate safely and productively. A robust ecosystem of registered apprenticeship and pre-apprenticeship programs can help ensure both that employers find the skilled workers they need in a large new manufacturing facility, and that local workers can access pathways to newly created jobs.

Registered apprenticeship programs are training programs vetted by federal or state agencies to ensure use of high-quality, best-practice training standards and approved curriculum aligned with skills needed to succeed in a particular occupation. Registered apprenticeships combine paid on-the-job and classroom training and result in a recognized, portable credential certifying that a worker has the skills and experience necessary for a specific occupation. Pre-apprenticeship programs (also known as apprenticeship readiness programs) recruit and prepare participants for registered apprenticeships—often partnering with community organizations—to open pathways to apprenticeship for women, Black and brown youth, immigrants, workers with disabilities, or others historically excluded from skilled trades occupations. The best practice is for these apprenticeships and pre-apprenticeships to be joint programs between unions and employers, providing high-quality instruction tailored to industry needs and training that leads to placement in a high-quality job with wages, conditions, and benefits negotiated into a union contract. Often, a vital building block for successful manufacturing apprenticeship programs is the establishment of a unionized workforce at a facility.

Unlike lower-quality workforce development programs, registered apprenticeships pay workers fairly for their labor during their training—and in joint apprenticeship programs, the wages and benefits of apprentices are negotiated into a union contract and typically include scheduled increases as apprentices progress through the training program. Registered apprentices (across joint and non-joint programs) typically see their earnings increase 49% between the year before they enter the program and the year after completing it (Walton, Gardiner, and Barnow 2022). These increases in earnings are greater than for similar workers who do not enter the apprenticeship during the same time period (Katz et al. 2022). Apprenticeships can also be particularly attractive to workers because they are debt-free. Most apprentices (60%) consider debt avoidance the most important reason for choosing to enroll in an apprenticeship (Walton, Gardiner, and Barnow 2022).

Apprenticeships can be a powerful tool for increasing the diversity of construction and other industry workforces. While participation of women and workers of color in apprenticeships has grown in recent years, this growth has been painfully slow for decades (CEA 2024). Research finds that union-based (joint) apprenticeship programs have been more successful than other types of apprenticeships at increasing diversity in the construction industry (Ormiston and Bilginsoy 2024). Joint apprenticeships enroll a higher share of women, Black workers, and Hispanic workers than non-joint programs, and have higher program completion rates for all workers, including for women and workers of color. Community benefits agreements can secure commitments and partnerships that equitably grow this pipeline of workers and set enforceable local and targeted hiring goals which in turn spur diversification of construction and manufacturing apprenticeship programs.

For instance, the New Flyer CBA creates a partnership between the company and coalition partners to develop pre-apprenticeship and technical training programs that expand access to manufacturing jobs for workers with low incomes and from disadvantaged groups (Sabin 2022). For these programs to succeed, community groups and educational institutions must have an active role in shaping the programs and connecting workers to these opportunities. The development of a growing skilled workforce and a robust, high-quality workforce development ecosystem can in turn be a strong incentive for bringing more facilities to an area over time. In 2015, Polaris stated that a significant factor in its decision to choose Huntsville, Alabama, for a new production facility was the area’s skilled workforce (Polaris 2015). As more workers participate in high-quality training programs that lead to union jobs, the organized workforce of the region will grow, strengthening labor-community coalitions the next time there is an opportunity to shape new development in the region.

Child care

Child care is an essential but extremely costly expense for many working families across the South. Average annual infant care costs in the South range from $6,868 in Mississippi to $14,277 in Virginia.5 The Department of Health and Human Services recommends that 7% or less of family income go toward infant child care costs, but typical Southern families spend significantly more. In Alabama, infant care costs are 9.8% of median family income, while in Oklahoma the share is 15.4% (EPI 2025b).

Increasing access to high-quality, affordable child care not only makes work more accessible to parents (and especially to women, who on average continue to assume disproportionate care responsibilities), but is a powerful investment in children’s development that can help narrow class and racial inequalities (Morrisey 2020). In addition, child care workers tend to work for very low wages and experience poverty at greater rates than the typical worker.

A large manufacturing investment in a locality might produce a significant number of jobs, and in turn increase the demand of workers and their families to live nearby. This is likely to increase the need for child care services in the region. However, data show that child care employment has not kept up with manufacturing growth in Southern counties. Table 3 compares counties with high manufacturing density, where manufacturing employment makes up more than the national average (9% in 2009), with those with lower manufacturing employment density (EPI 2025c).

Table 3

Between 2009 and 2024, manufacturing employment in high-manufacturing-density counties in the South grew 15.9%, achieving faster growth than similar counties in the U.S. overall (12.1%). However, over the same period, child care employment only grew 4.5% in Southern high-manufacturing-density counties, far below the national rate of 14.2%. Child care employment growth in the South for low-manufacturing-density counties (22.3%) is also below the national level (28.5%). The South systematically underinvests in child care, despite its importance to a healthy economy in the region.

CBAs and PLAs have been used to secure both the construction of physical child care spaces and financial support for actual services. The Nashville Soccer CBA reserved 4,000 square feet for the development of a child care center (SUN 2020). In 2001, the CBA for the North Hollywood Commons mixed-use development project in Southern California secured a commitment to an on-site child care center. Fifty child care spaces at the center were reserved for low- and moderate-income families (Sabin 2001). In the Boston area, unions have secured Project Labor Agreements that seek to address the unique child care needs of the construction industry. The PLA for the Winthrop Center in Boston established a child care access fund to research, develop, and implement alternative child care models within the construction industry, with a particular focus on assisting single mothers with child care while supporting their career (NEREJ 2019).

These types of investments are vital supports for working families, particularly mothers, seeking to balance professional and care work. Combined with union neutrality for the child care workers at these facilities, commitments to providing child care can further elevate worker power in the region and help large new facilities recruit and retain the skilled, experienced workforces they need to succeed.

Affordable housing

Without strategies to address the housing needs of a community impacted by a new manufacturing investment, local residents can experience increased economic precarity or forced displacement. The local housing impacts of a large industrial investment can be complex. A significant manufacturing investment can make a local community more attractive as workers move into the area to be close to their place of work. Manufacturing investments are also likely to be paired with prospective real estate investments in anticipation of future development around the original project. State and local governments might use eminent domain and other purchasing mechanisms to secure land for roads and other new infrastructure. These dynamics can increase housing costs for residents, particularly renters who are most vulnerable to the impacts of housing speculation and prospective rent increases. For instance, the BlueOval development in West Tennessee is already reported to have increased property prices and housing rents (TCG 2023). Homeowners, particularly those with fixed incomes, can also be more burdened with housing costs as higher demand in the area increases property tax valuations (Payne 2019).

On the other hand, extreme proximity to an industrial site can expose residents to environmental hazards and noise pollution, and may be considered unsightly, which decreases property values (Currie et al. 2016; Upton and Talpur 2024). The exact distribution of these changes in demand for housing across a community will depend on the type of industry and any other types of development included in the project.

Industrial investments like manufacturing facilities tend to take place in rural and semirural areas, in part because land is relatively inexpensive (Wiley 2015). While the counties with a higher share of manufacturing employment tend to have lower housing costs than urban areas, housing affordability remains a significant issue for workers. On average, across high-manufacturing-density counties in the South, a two-adult, two-child household must cover more than $14,000 a year in housing costs.6 A large share of renters in high-manufacturing-density counties in the South still are cost-burdened by housing, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on rent, utilities, and other housing costs. As shown in Figure F, across the Southern states, the share of cost-burdened households in high-manufacturing-density counties ranges from 28% in Arkansas to 47% in Florida. More than 2 in 5 (42%) of Texas renters in these counties are also housing cost-burdened.

Figure F

A strong CBA will secure commitments to build a certain number of affordable housing units or dedicate a share of housing at the site as affordable. The Nashville Stadium CBA created agreements that at least 12% of residential units in the development would be affordable and that 20% of those units would be three-bedroom units to accommodate families (SUN 2020). The Staples Center CBA in Los Angeles, California, was another successful example of strong affordable housing benefits. The 2001 agreement for the development of an expanded convention center, theater, and surrounding housing, hotel, and retail space secured commitments that 20% of housing units would be affordable. The developer also agreed to provide $650,000 in interest-free loans to nonprofit affordable housing developers in the local community (WRI 2001).

Even in situations where a labor-community coalition is unable to reach a final CBA with a company, coalition organizing around community demands can still deliver meaningful affordable housing victories. Between 2002 and 2006, a labor-community coalition in Denver pressured Cherokee Investment Partners to provide community benefits as part of their redevelopment of the site of the Gates Rubber Company. The coalition leveraged zoning changes necessary for the project and a potential subsidy package from the city to extract benefits including an affordable housing plan for hundreds of rental and for-sale affordable housing units (Ingram and Hong 2011; PowerSwitch Action 2025).

In 2005, the labor-community coalition organized by Georgia STAND-UP was able to attach community benefits to an Atlanta city ordinance allocating $2 billion in public funding for the Atlanta Beltline transit-oriented development project. The city resolution shaped by the coalition established an affordable housing trust fund and a goal of developing 5,600 affordable housing units (PowerSwitch Action 2025). As of 2024, more than 4,100 affordable units have been created as part of the project (Atlanta Beltline, Inc. 2024).

Labor-community coalitions can also pursue other land-use commitments beyond the development of affordable housing. The BlueOval Good Neighbors coalition in West Tennessee has demanded commitments to protect land for farmers in the area. The development of the Ford factory has pushed Tennessee’s Department of Transportation to pursue land for new roadways through purchase and eminent domain. The area targeted for new roadways is a majority Black farming community, and several farmers are engaged in lawsuits with the state over the state’s meager compensation offers for their land (Wadhwani 2023). The coalition has demanded that farmers be offered replacement land in exchange for their sold land, as well as the creation of a 10,000-acre community land trust (BlueOval Good Neighbors n.d.).

Creating or protecting affordable housing is essential for protecting the communities that are necessary for any effective labor-community coalition. Large developments can cause instability within the community as new residents arrive, and existing residents are buffeted by rising housing costs. Because of historic and ongoing racial discrimination in housing policy, labor policy, and real estate practices, the costs of these changes are most likely to impact Black and Hispanic workers. Black families and other workers of color are the most likely to be cost-burdened by housing (JCHS 2024). Creating housing for workers and families to remain in the area is vital for continued collective action to secure benefits from developers and hold those developers accountable for their promises.

Environmental standards, funding, and monitoring

Large-scale manufacturing projects often have significant environmental impacts, both during construction and once they are in operation. Air, noise, and groundwater pollution; harm to wildlife habitats; and residents’ exposure to toxic byproducts are just a few examples of common concerns, and these consequences can be severe when projects are approved without sufficient environmental consideration. The consequences of large manufacturing projects often disproportionately harm communities of color and low-wealth areas throughout the South (Brouk 2024). For decades, poor and Black residents in the region have been exposed to toxic chemicals, pollution, and other environmental dangers at alarming rates (Bergman 2019).

In 2021, the Tennessee governor approved the construction of a General Motors lithium battery supplier in the city of Spring Hill, on the banks of the Duck River. Though the project was seen as an economic success, the plant’s operation has taken a toll on the fragile river ecosystem. The lithium battery factory is not the only strain—just eight companies along the river drain tens of millions of gallons of water daily (Wadhwani 2024). This enormous water usage has lowered river water levels, threatened biodiversity, and harmed local tourism and recreation. Advocates for the river’s health blame the state’s prioritization of manufacturing expansion without regard to the long-term environmental or economic consequences for local residents or other existing local industries.

CBAs are a tool that may help community-labor coalitions address the environmental impacts of data centers in the South. Data centers are booming across the United States, but particularly in Southern states like Georgia, Texas, and Virginia (Walker and Goldsmith 2026). New centers are heavy users of water and energy, create noise and air pollution, and are driving up electricity costs nationwide both by increasing demand for energy and requiring utilities to invest in new infrastructure paid for by all ratepayers (Merchant and Guerra 2025; Bizo et al. 2021; AI NOW 2025; Reed 2025). For example, in Virginia, electric bills were on track to increase as much as 25% in 2025 because of data centers (Penn and Weise 2025).

Growing community concerns surrounding data centers could create leverage for labor-community coalitions to pursue CBAs and other community benefits strategies. In 2025, community opposition blocked or delayed $64 billion in data center projects across the nation (Data Center Watch 2025). As community resistance to data centers continues to grow, more developers may recognize the need to come to the table with local coalitions to negotiate binding commitments on environmental and economic outcomes to secure project approvals. A handful of localities have begun to create agreements with data center developers regulating water use and securing commitments to green energy use (Turner Lee and West 2026).

Past development projects provide examples of how communities have used CBAs to secure long-term commitments to clean energy transition and protection of local natural resources in a multitude of ways, from mandating that any new construction must meet specific sustainability standards to requiring companies to contribute a set dollar amount to a city’s renewable energy transition fund. In Virginia, the City of Richmond Resort Casino CBA ensured the developing and operating company would design and construct all project buildings to Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Silver standards and would use previously existing pavement where possible (WRI 2021). The agreement also required the developer to attempt to reduce the urban heat island effect by planting shade trees along sidewalks and using other landscaping methods (WRI 2021). These agreements can mitigate additional environmental harm in areas that have already been polluted. A CBA between the Town of Waterloo, New York, and Seneca Meadows, Inc. regarding a landfill expansion commits the waste management company to pay for the development of new public water lines and other potable water infrastructure if existing public water wells become contaminated (WRI 2005).

CBAs can also be used to expand the positive impact of an already climate-friendly project. In New York, a CBA with an offshore windfarm developer stipulates that the company must contribute $2 million to the town of East Hampton’s Ocean Industries Sustainability Program (WRI 2018). Additionally, Deepwater Wind South Fork, LLC must spend $200,000 to establish an Energy Sustainability and Resilience Fund to support East Hampton’s transition to 100% renewable energy (WRI 2018). CBAs with environmentally focused companies provide valuable opportunities for communities looking to address climate change, especially where state governments have failed to invest in environmental programs.

A CBA can achieve a variety of climate and environmental commitments from a company but is also a strong starting point for building local capacity to monitor resource use, pollution, and other environmental priorities. A strong coalition of community, labor, and environmental groups can play essential roles in implementing and enforcing CBA commitments in contexts where understaffed government agencies have limited ability to monitor or investigate pollution and other environmental harms. Instead, workers and community members are often the first to report harmful practices and safety concerns. A strong CBA can provide opportunities for labor and environmental groups to work together to monitor and protect worker and community health, natural resources, and ecosystems.

Conclusion

For decades, Southern economic policies shaped by dominant business and corporate interests have resulted in poor working conditions and failed to ensure that profits generated by publicly subsidized development are shared with local workers and communities. Confronting the deep, long-standing imbalances of power that have entrenched this failed economic development model will require significant organizing and coalition-building to increase the collective power of workers and community members to shape different outcomes from the latest Southern manufacturing boom. Building new forms of worker and community power will be equally necessary to counter escalating authoritarian actions of the Trump administration, which closely parallel many features of the failed Southern economic development model that by design prioritizes corporations over workers and communities.

Our analysis shows that community benefits agreements could be powerful tools for Southern labor and community groups building the shared power necessary to reshape local and eventually regional economies. When strong coalitions of labor, environmental, faith-based, and other grassroots community organizations are able to build the necessary power to bring a company or developer to the table to negotiate an enforceable agreement, such coalitions can secure measurable economic benefits like higher wages, respect for workers’ rights to unionize, local or targeted hiring, protection of natural resources, or more affordable housing. Such economic gains are beneficial in themselves, but they also raise expectations, build local capacity to pursue additional gains, and demonstrate to the community at large that local residents can shape their own economic futures, and that these types of victories are achievable in the face of the Southern status quo.

While the urgent project of upending the Southern economic development model will require vigorous and persistent organizing across many sectors and geographies, community benefits agreements are one key strategy for turning manufacturing jobs into good jobs, ensuring long-term local economic gains from new industrial investments, and even renewing democracy in contexts where it has long been suppressed. Forming strong, long-lasting labor-community coalitions is essential to winning concrete gains for local workers as well as reshaping the political fabric of Southern communities and increasing working people’s influence over broader state or regional economic policy decisions. Winning and implementing any strong CBA requires the formation of an empowered labor-community coalition, which ideally endures and gains greater strength, experience, and influence over time. Just as the economic benefits of unionization extend far beyond an individual workplace, establishing a strong CBA coalition can create broader positive impacts across a community or region—delivering higher-quality jobs; more equitable tax systems; stronger public services; and healthier, more inclusive political systems.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the AFL-CIO Center for Transformational Organizing for their partnership and invaluable contributions in the production of this report. The authors are also grateful to Athena Last and Ian Elder at Jobs to Move America and Ben Beach at PowerSwitch Action for their expert feedback.

Appendix

Appendix Table 1

Notes

1. Clean energy manufacturing includes manufacturing of batteries, electric vehicles, mineral products, solar energy products, and wind energy products.

2. Workers in Southern states experience lower wages than in other regions even after adjusting for cost-of-living differences (Childers 2023).

3. The facilities covered by these agreements included plants in Alabama, California, Kentucky, Minnesota, New York, and Wisconsin.

4. This category includes workers who are Black, Indigenous, and/or people of color; women; LGBTQ+ persons; systems-impacted people (formerly incarcerated people); persons emancipated from the foster care system; residents of Anniston, Alabama, lacking GED or high school diploma; and veterans.

5. Southern states excluding D.C., Delaware, and Maryland.

6. EPI analysis of Family Budget Calculator and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data.

References

Abrams, Cynthia. 2025. “As West Tennessee Community Pressures Ford for Promises, Lawmakers Curb ‘Community Benefits Agreements’.” WPLN News, March 25, 2025.

AI NOW. 2025. “North Star Data Center Policy Toolkit: State and Local Policy Interventions to Stop Rampant AI Data Center Expansion.” December 2025.

Anderson, Sarah. 2014. “Wall Street Bonuses and the Minimum Wage.” Institute for Policy Studies, March 12, 2014.

Aquiles-Sanchez, Pablo, and Laura Dresser. 2022. Worker Power Levels the Playing Field: Community Benefits for Public Subsidies in the Iron District. High Road Research Center, November 2022.

Aquiles-Sanchez, Pablo, and Laura Dresser. 2024. From Community Benefits, to Collective Bargaining, and Back: Building Worker Power in Milwaukee. High Road Research Center, March 2024.

Atlanta Beltline Inc. 2024. Relentless Momentum, Undeniable Results: 2024 Annual Report.

Barrett, Jim, and Josh Bivens. 2021. The Stakes for Workers in How Policymakers Manage the Coming Shift to All-Electric Vehicles. Economic Policy Institute, September 2021.

Bayard, Kimberly, Tomaz Cajner, Vivi Gregorich, and Maria Tito. 2022. Are Manufacturing Jobs Still Good Jobs? An Exploration of the Manufacturing Wage Premium. Federal Reserve Board, March 2022.

Bergman, Megan Mayhew. 2019. “‘They Chose Us Because We Were Rural and Poor’: When Environmental Racism and Climate Change Collide“. Guardian, March 8, 2019.

Bizo, Daniel, Rhonda Ascierto, Andy Lawrence, and Jacqueline Davis. 2021. Uptime Institute Global Data Center Survey 2021. Uptime Institute, September 2021.

Blair, Hunter, David Cooper, Julia Wolfe, and Jaimie Worker. 2020. Preempting Progress: State Interference in Local Policymaking Prevents People of Color, Women, and Low-Income Workers from Making Ends Meet in the South. Economic Policy Institute, September 2020.

BlueOval Good Neighbors. n.d. “Community Benefits Agreement Demands Summary.” Accessed September 5, 2025.

Bomey, Nathan. 2024. “Volkswagen on Factory Unionization Efforts: ‘Neutral Doesn’t Mean Silent’.” Axios, February 15, 2024.

Brouk, Allison. 2024. “Wood Pellet Manufacturing in the South Harms Communities and the Environment.” Earthjustice, October 11, 2024.

Clean Economy Tracker (CET). 2025. Clean Economy Tracker. Accessed July 15, 2025.

Childers, Chandra. 2023. Rooted in Racism and Economic Exploitation: The Failed Southern Economic Development Model. Economic Policy Institute, October 2023.

Childers, Chandra. 2024a. Southern Economic Policies Undermine Job Quality for Auto Workers. Economic Policy Institute, September 2024.

Childers, Chandra. 2024b. The Evolution of the Southern Economic Development Strategy. Economic Policy Institute, May 2024.

Childers, Chandra. 2025. The Ongoing Influence of Slavery and Jim Crow Means High Poverty Rates and Low Economic Mobility in the South. Economic Policy Institute, April 2025.

City of Cleveland. n.d. “Community Benefits Ordinance” (web page). Accessed December 4, 2025.

City of Detroit. n.d. “Community Benefits Ordinance” (web page). Accessed December 4, 2025.

Communication Workers of America (CWA). 2024. “A New Dawn: Union Victory at New Flyer in Anniston, Alabama.” May 20, 2024.

Council of Economic Advisors (CEA). 2024. “All Aboard the ApprenticeSHIP: Assessing the Changing Face of Registered Apprenticeships.” Biden White House Archives, November 20, 2024.

Currie, Janet, Lucas Davis, Michael Greenstone, and Reed Walker. 2015. “Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings.” American Economic Review 105, no. 2 (February 2015): 678–709. doi: 10.1257/aer.20121656.

Data Center Watch. 2025. “$64 Billion of Data Center Projects Have Been Blocked or Delayed Amid Local Opposition.” Accessed February 24, 2026.

Dean, Adam, Jamie McCallum, and Atheendar Venkataramani. 2022. Unions in the United States Improve Worker Safety and Lower Health Inequality. Washington Center for Equitable Growth, December 2022.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2021. “Unions Help Reduce Disparities and Strengthen Our Democracy” (fact sheet). Economic Policy Institute, April 23, 2021.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2025a. “Workers’ Rights Preemption in the U.S.” Accessed July 1, 2025.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2025b. “Child Care Costs in the United States.” Accessed July 1, 2025.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2025c. “State of Working America data.” Accessed June 25, 2025.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2026. “Family Budget Calculator.” Accessed February 15, 2026.

Erickson, Emily. 2021. Are Good Jobs Possible in the Deep South? Jobs to Move America, March 2021.

Fazili, Sameera, Pronita Gupta, and Doug Bloch. 2025. “How Community Benefits Agreements Can Reduce Project Delivery Risk.” UtilityDive, October 15, 2025.

Gould, Elise, Zane Mokhiber, and Katherine DeCourcy. 2024. What Constitutes a Living Wage? Economic Policy Institute, January 2024.

Hickey, Sebastian Martinez. 2024. “Leveraging the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub Community Benefits Plan to Empower the Texas Workforce.” Comments submitted on behalf of Economic Policy Institute to Texas Climate Jobs Project Community Commission on Truth and Transparency in Texas Hydrogen, December 5, 2024.

Ingram, Gregory K, and Yu-Hong Hong. 2012. Value Capture and Land Policies. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (JCHS). 2024. America’s Rental Housing. Harvard University, 2024.

Katz, Batia, Robert Lerman, Daniel Kuehn, Jessica Shakespeare. 2022. Did Apprentices Achieve Faster Earnings Growth Than Comparable Workers? Brief prepared for U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Rockville, MD: Abt Associates; and Washington, DC: Urban Institute, August 2022.

Last, Athena Nicole. 2025. A Case Study of the New Flyer of America Inc. Community Benefits Agreement. Jobs to Move America, July 2025.

Lawliss, Michael, Lew Finfer, and Jennifer Sherer. 2022. Using Local and Economically-Targeted Hire to Promote Good Jobs through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Jobs to Move America, September 2022.

Leigh, J. Paul, and Bozhidar Chakalov. 2021. “Labor Unions and Health: A Literature Review of Pathways and Outcomes in the Workplace.” Preventative Medicine Reports 24, no. 101502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2021.101502

Mangundayao, Ihna, Celine McNicholas, and Margaret Poydock. 2022. “Project Labor Agreements on Federal Construction Projects Will Benefit Nearly 200,000 Workers.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), February 9, 2022.

Manzo IV, Frank, Michael Jekot, and Robert Bruno. 2021. The Impact of Unions on Construction Worksite Health and Safety. Illinois Economic Policy Institute, November 2021.

Mast, Nina. 2025a. Forced Prison Labor in the “Land of the Free.” Economic Policy Institute, January 2025.

Mast, Nina. 2025b. How Anti-Worker Policies, Crony Capitalism, and Privatization Keep the South Locked Out of Shared Prosperity. Economic Policy Institute, June 2025.

McFadden, Michael, Sai Santosh, and Ronit Shetty. 2022. Quantifying the Value of Union Labor in Construction Projects. Mechanical Industry Advancement Fund, December 2022.

McNicholas, Celine, Margaret Poydock, Julia Wolfe, Ben Zipperer, Gordon Lafer, and Lola Loustaunau. 2019. Unlawful: U.S. Employers are Charged with Violating Federal Law in 41.5% of All Union Election Campaigns. Economic Policy Institute, December 2019.

McNicholas, Celine, Margaret Poydock, Samantha Sanders, and Ben Zipperer. 2023. Employers Spend More Than $400 Million per Year on ‘Union-Avoidance’ Consultants To Bolster Their Union-Busting Efforts (fact sheet). Economic Policy Institute, March 2023.

McNicholas, Celine, Margaret Poydock, Heidi Shierholz, and Hilary Wething. 2025. Unions Aren’t Just Good for Workers—They Also Benefit Communities and Democracy. Economic Policy Institute, August 2025.

McNicholas, Celine, Margaret Poydock, and Heidi Shierholz. 2026. Workers’ Resolve Drives Increase in Unionization in 2025. Economic Policy Institute, February 2026.

Merchant, Zach, and Adrian P. Guerra. 2025. “Data Center Boom Impacting Georgia’s Water Resources.” 11Alive, April 14, 2025.

Mickey, Robert. Paths Out of Dixie: The Democratization of Authoritarian Enclaves in America’s Deep South, 1944-1972. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press, 2015.

Mishel, Lawrence. 2017. “The Increased Diversity of New York City Union Construction Employment.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), January 19, 2017.

Morrissey, Taryn. 2020. Addressing the Need for Affordable, High-Quality Early Childhood Care And Education for All in the United States. Washington Center for Economic Growth, February 2020.

New England Real Estate Journal (NEREJ). 2019. “MP Boston and Building Trades Unions sign Project Labor Agreement for Winthrop Center.” NEREJ, November 15, 2019.

O’Brien, Connor. 2023. “Factory Boom in the Mountain West and Upper Midwest Accelerated into the Spring.” Economic Innovation Group, June 13, 2023.

Ormiston, Russell, and Cihan Bilginsoy. 2024. “Measuring Diversity in Construction Apprenticeship Programs.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), November 21, 2024.

Partnership for Working Families and Community Benefits Law Center (PWF and CBLC). 2016. Common Challenges in Negotiating Community Benefits Agreements and How to Avoid Them. January 2016.

Payne, Mat. 2019. “When Nowhere Becomes Somewhere: Gentrification in Rural Communities and How Proactive Community Planning and a Progressive Property Valuation System Can Stem the Tide.” Kentucky Law Journal 207, no. 4: 727–745.

Perez, Daniel. 2015. Voter Suppression Makes the Racist and Anti-Worker Southern Model Possible. Economic Policy Institute, October 2024.

Penn, Ivan, and Karen Weise. 2025. “Big Tech’s A.I. Data Centers Are Driving Up Electricity Bills for Everyone.” New York Times, August 2025.

Polaris. 2015. “Polaris Industries Inc. Announces Expansion of Manufacturing Operations.” January 9, 2015.

PowerSwitch Action. 2025. “Community Benefits Agreements Examples.” Accessed September 1, 2025.

Reed, Rachel. 2025. “How data centers may lead to higher electricity bills.” Harvard Law Today, September 2025.

Rhinehart, Lynn, and Celine McNicholas. 2020. Collective Bargaining Beyond the Worksite: How Workers and Their Unions Build Power and Set Standards for Their Industries. Economic Policy Institute, May 2020.

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law (Sabin). 2001. North Hollywood Mixed-Use Redevelopment Project Community Benefits Agreement.

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law (Sabin). 2017. Monhegan Plantation et al. and Maine Aqua Ventis Community Benefits Agreement.

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law (Sabin). 2022. New Flyer of America, Greater Birmingham Ministries, and Jobs to Move America Community Benefits Agreement.

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law (Sabin). 2024. City of Salem and Salem Wind Terminal LLC Community Benefits Agreement.

Sachs, Benjamin. 2024. “Hey ALEC, Be Careful What You Wish For.” On Labor, March 8, 2024.

Saha, Devashree. 2024. Community Benefits Snapshot: New Flyer Community Benefits Agreement. World Resources Institute, December 2024.

Scott, Robert, Valerie Wilson, Jori Kandra, and Daniel Perez. 2022. Botched Policy Responses to Globalization Have Decimated Manufacturing Employment with Often Overlooked Costs for Black, Brown, and Other Workers of Color. Economic Policy Institute, January 2022.

Sherer, Jennnifer, and Elise Gould. 2025. It’s Time for Colorado to Remove Barriers to Unionization. Economic Policy Institute, February 2025.

Stand Up Nashville (SUN). 2018. “Historic Community Benefits Agreement Reached!” SUN, September 4, 2018.

Stand Up Nashville (SUN). 2020. Nashville MLS Soccer Community Benefits Agreement.

Stand Up Nashville (SUN). 2023. Community Advisory Committee Community Benefits Agreement Annual Report 2023.

Stephenson, Jemma. 2024. “Alabama Senate Bill Would Punish Companies That Voluntarily Recognize Unions.” Alabama Reflector, March 27, 2024.

Tennessee Office of Governor. 2023. “Gov. Lee, Ford Celebrate Historic BlueOval City in West TN” (press release). March 23, 2023.

The Chesapeake Group, Inc. (TCG). 2023. Haywood Market Assessment Section for Growth Strategies. September 2023.

Todd, Patricia. 2021. The Hidden Costs of Alabama’s Tax Incentives. Jobs to Move America, August 2021.

Turner Lee, Nicol, and Darrell West. 2026. Why Community Benefit Agreements Are Necessary for Data Centers. The Brookings Institution, January 2026.

Upton, Greg, and Sarang Talpur. 2024. Literature Review on the Impact of Utility-Scale Solar on Housing Prices. Louisiana State University, August 2024.

Wadwhani, Anita. 2023. “Black Farming Community Fights to Get Fair Deal as State Takes Land for Ford Plant Roadways.” Tennessee Lookout, April 3, 2023.

Wadhwani, Anita. 2024. “Water Wars: Groups Challenge ‘Unsustainable’ Withdrawals from Duck River.” Tennessee Lookout, May 6, 2024.

Walker, Carla, and Ian Goldsmith. 2026. “From Energy Use to Air Quality, the Many Ways Data Centers Affect US Communities.” World Resources Institute, February 2026.

Walton, Douglas, Karen Gardiner, and Burt Barnow. 2022. Expanding Apprenticeship to New Sectors and Populations. Prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. Rockville, MD: Abt Associates, August 2022.

Wiley, Jonathan. 2015. The Impact of Commercial Development on Surrounding Residential Property Values. J. Mack Robinson College of Business, April 2015.

World Resource Institute (WRI). n.d. “Database of Community Benefits Frameworks Across the US.” Accessed September 5, 2025.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2001. Staples Center Community Benefits Agreement.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2005. Community Benefits Agreement between the Town of Waterloo and Seneca Meadows Inc.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2018. Community Benefits Agreement between Deepwater Wind and the Town of East Hampton.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2021. Resort Casino Host Community Agreement by and between the City of Richmond, Virginia and RVA Entertainment Holdings, LLC.

World Resources Institute (WRI). 2025. Atlanta Beltline. Accessed September 29, 2025.

Zessoules, Daniella, and Olugbenga Ajilore. 2018. Wage Gaps and Outcomes in Apprenticeship Programs. Center for American Progress, December 2018.

Table 1

The benefits of raising the minimum wage

Raising the minimum wage is a research-backed policy that increases earnings for low-wage workers without causing increases in unemployment or other negative economic side effects. A strong wage floor is also a powerful tool for making a more equitable economy. Almost two-thirds of the workers who would be affected by SQ 832 are women (63.3%). The policy would also disproportionately benefit workers of color. Hispanic workers make up 18.2% of the affected workers, compared with 11.0% of the total Oklahoma workforce. Black workers would be 10.6% of affected workers, while only making up 7.1% of the workforce (see Table 3).

The policy would also provide critical support to workers experiencing significant economic insecurity. Nearly three-fifths (59.3%) of the affected workers have incomes below 200% of the poverty line. Research shows that raising the minimum wage significantly reduces poverty, even as higher wages simultaneously reduce some workers’ and families’ eligibility for, and reliance on, public assistance programs.

A higher minimum wage would help combat the affordability crisis

While dozens of states and cities have passed minimum wage increases over the past 15 years, Oklahoma is one of 20 states that still uses the dismally low federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. Policymakers have not raised the federal minimum wage since July 2009, meaning that as prices throughout the economy have risen, the buying power of a paycheck at the federal minimum wage has fallen—substantially. Adjusting for inflation, the federal minimum wage is worth 30% less than it was in 2009. In fact, since 2025, the federal minimum wage has officially been a poverty-level wage under the Department of Health and Human Services’ guidelines. The stagnant federal minimum wage is one example of how economic policy in recent decades has suppressed workers’ wage growth, squeezing them as prices have continued to rise and creating the affordability crisis.

Fortunately, SQ 832 would not only raise the state minimum wage to more adequate levels, but also automatically adjust it for inflation beginning in 2030. Twenty-one states already use these automatic increases to ensure that low-wage workers don’t lose ground over time as prices rise.

SQ 832 would go a long way toward improving conditions for the lowest-paid workers in the state as they contend with rising housing, energy, and health insurance costs. However, the reality is that most Oklahoma workers face higher living costs than can be supported by a $15-per-hour wage. Figure A shows estimates of a living wage for a single adult in different Oklahoma metro areas using EPI’s Family Budget Calculator. All Oklahoma metro areas have living wages above $16 an hour. Workers in Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln County must earn at least $18 an hour to meet the Family Budget Calculator threshold. Even the lowest-cost county in the state (McIntosh County, not shown) has a living wage greater than $15 an hour.

Figure A

SQ 832’s $15 target would help hundreds of thousands of Oklahoma workers earn closer to a living wage and put Oklahoma’s wage standards more in line with many other states. As of January 2026, 17 states and the District of Columbia had at least a $15 minimum wage—including states such as Arizona, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Lawmakers and voters in many states have adopted higher state and local minimum wages both in response to federal inaction and because economic research has reached a strong consensus that raising the minimum wage, at least to levels attempted thus far, has not caused any measurable harm to employment.  

A $15 minimum wage in Oklahoma is not an outlier compared with policies in other states, even after accounting for differences in the labor markets of different jurisdictions. Economists use the minimum-to-median wage ratio (sometimes called the Kaitz index) to assess the “bite” or strength of the wage floor relative to wage levels in the area where the policy is taking place. This measure allows us to see how a $15 minimum wage compares in New York and Oklahoma, where the overall distribution of wages is substantially different. Most minimum wage research has studied policies with minimum-to-median wage ratios of .67 or less (i.e., a minimum wage raised as high as two-thirds the median wage in the same jurisdiction.) Table 2 shows the current and projected path of Oklahoma’s minimum-to-median wage ratio if SB 832 passes. The ratio would grow as the policy goes into effect, but it would likely never exceed 60%—meaning it is solidly in the range of policies that economists have studied and found no negative effect on employment.

Table 2

Oklahoma’s current minimum wage suppresses pay for workers

Establishing and periodically raising a strong wage floor is necessary to counteract employers’ excess market power over workers, which keeps wages lower than they would be in a truly competitive market. Workers face a multitude of barriers which provide wage-setting leverage for employers. Workers often have limited information about wages and work policies at alternative employers and can be constrained in their job choices by limited transportation options or the need to maintain specific schedules for child care and other family needs. Low-wage workers typically have less financial ability than higher-wage workers to overcome these obstacles, and are more likely to encounter take-it-or-leave-it wage offers that prevent them from negotiating pay. These challenges (sometimes called “frictions”) add up, providing leverage for employers to pay lower wages than workers need—and lower than what is optimal for the local economy.

Oklahoma’s weak wage floor suppresses pay for hundreds of thousands of workers. The state has the third-highest share of workers earning less than $15 an hour (21%). Although there are relatively few workers who earn exactly $7.25 an hour, one undervalued benefit of a strong wage floor is that it supplies upwards pressure on the wages of low-wage workers who earn more than the minimum wage. These “spillover effects” mean that workers above the new minimum wage threshold also see wage increases as employers adjust other workers’ pay to maintain wage ladders and preserve seniority.

Oklahomans have a consequential opportunity to strengthen the wage floor and deliver a meaningful raise to hundreds of thousands of workers. A $15 minimum wage is evidence-backed, both by rigorous economic research and the recent experience of many other states. SQ 832 would support families as they struggle with the affordability crisis and generate lasting improvements to the health and equity of the economy.

Table 3

Two years ago, the California Fast Food Council—composed of worker, industry, and government representatives—instituted a $20 minimum wage for workers at large chain fast-food restaurants. But the Council has not raised the minimum wage further, and inflation has steadily eroded fast-food workers’ real wages since then. The authors argue that a 3.5% raise—the maximum adjustment the Council can recommend—would be a necessary yet modest step because it will only partially offset the average 4.2% cost of living increase since April 2024.

In fact, lower-income households have faced higher inflation than the overall inflation rate, largely because housing has been a higher share of their budgets. This means that indexing based on the overall inflation rate would fail to fully restore the affordability lost to fast-food workers since the enactment of the $20 wage standard, making such an adjustment even more modest—and necessary.

One impediment to this adjustment is opposition from fast-food restaurant operators, who argue that raising workers’ pay to $20 harmed their businesses and that they cannot absorb any further increases. However, the weight of empirical evidence shows that the $20 minimum wage has raised wages while not causing significant job loss. And compared with the initial setting of wage standards, indexed changes are very small and therefore unlikely to push up prices. Failing to adjust for inflation is essentially a backdoor method for unraveling the wage standard that policymakers passed into law.

“Automatically adjusting minimum wages for inflation is necessary for protecting affordability for low-wage workers,” said Josh Bivens, EPI chief economist and co-author of the report. “The California Fast Food Council should prioritize a cost-of-living adjustment in 2026 to prevent rising prices from erasing workers’ gains. A failure to regularly index for inflation provides a windfall to low-wage employers at the expense of their frontline employees.”

The Council was preparing to discuss a wage adjustment in June 2025 when the chair resigned. It is expected to take up the issue when the governor names a new chair, which has yet to happen. Given that almost two years have passed since the initial setting of the $20 wage standard—a year and a half that has seen continued inflation—the Council should prioritize this cost-of-living adjustment in 2026 to prevent rising prices from erasing the gains made by fast-food workers. One impediment to this adjustment is opposition from fast-food restaurant operators, who argue that raising workers’ pay to $20 damaged their businesses and that they cannot absorb any further increases.

This debate in California between fast-food workers and employers highlights the importance of regular and automatic adjustments to wage standards (like minimum wages) that ensure inflation-adjusted living standards for low-wage workers do not erode over time.

Indexation is often an afterthought in debates over wage standards. But it can turn out to be the most important part of any policy that sets a wage standard. This report examines salient issues related to indexing wage standards and offers recommendations for policymakers. Its key arguments are:

• Wage standards are necessary and efficient because of unbalanced power in labor markets.
• Wage standards that are fixed in nominal terms and have no automatic adjustment (like the federal minimum wage) get weaker every single year that passes without a legislated increase. The cumulative erosion of inflation-adjusted wage standards often exceeds the initial legislated increase.
  • For example, in inflation-adjusted terms, the federal minimum wage today is lower than it was in 2007, the last time a new standard was passed into law.
• Mandating higher wages for any group of workers will set off a chain of adjustments elsewhere in labor and product markets. What these adjustments eventually mean for relative incomes, prices, and employment is an empirical question.
  • Thankfully, minimum wage increases are some of the most well-studied events in economics, and the weight of empirical evidence is that they do not measurably increase overall inflation or lead to significant job loss, but they do raise the inflation-adjusted pay of targeted workers.
• Adjusting wage standards only for increases in inflation is actually a conservative policy in the sense of minimizing potential burdens on low-wage employers. More ambitious targets for adjustment—like wages or even productivity—could be preferable depending on the specific case.
  • In the case of the California Fast Food Council, providing a price-based adjustment to account for inflation since the initial adoption of the $20 minimum wage in April 2024 is an appropriate and modest step.
  • A 3.5% increase in the wage standard—the maximum adjustment the Council can recommend—is also conservative because it will only partially offset the actual 4.2% cost of living increase since April 2024 and because it does not account for ongoing productivity improvements in the sector.
• Over the past decade—and continuing since April 2024—the inflation rate faced by lower-income households has been higher than the overall inflation rate, largely because housing is a higher share of lower-income households’ budget. This means indexing based on the average inflation rate would fail to fully restore the affordability lost to fast-food workers since the enactment of the $20 wage standard, making such an adjustment even more modest (and even more necessary).

Wage standards are necessary because of unbalanced labor market power

Modern labor markets—particularly those that low-wage workers participate in—are characterized by significant employer power. Low-wage employers rarely if ever negotiate pay with workers, instead posting take-it-or-leave-it wage offers. Further, when a given employer lets its own wages lag those of potential competitors, workers’ exit from the lower-wage firm is far less common than would be predicted under truly competitive labor markets where employers robustly compete for workers.

The seminal source for modeling labor markets as situations where employers have substantial wage-setting power is Manning (2003), who describes this situation as one of “monopsony” power in labor markets.The literal definition of monopsony is a market with a single buyer. At points in history (think 19th century “company towns” in rural and isolated areas) this kind of literal monopsony may have existed. But Manning and those who have built on this work point to several features and frictions in real-world labor markets that make it hard for workers to effectively search for better jobs. These job search barriers effectively grant employers excess market power over workers even when there are numerous employers. Some of these frictions include things like lack of information about wages and other policies of alternative employers, transportation restrictions that require workers to look for jobs only in places near their home or public transit nodes, child care considerations that require a job’s location be compatible with picking up kids at a regular time, along with many other factors.

Employers use these barriers to employees finding better outside options to “mark down” wages below what would be necessary for employers to attract and retain workers in competitive labor markets. These markdowns can be large enough to push workers’ pay well below the value they produce for the employer, making pay levels inefficient.

At the level of the total economy, the excess power of employers in labor markets and their ability to markdown wages can be seen in the gap between economy-wide productivity (the amount of income generated in an average hour of work in the economy) and the hourly pay (including benefits) of typical workers.

Figure A

Wage standards—like minimum wages—can correct for this excess employer power. This leaves low-wage workers with higher pay and living standards and moves the economy to a more efficient allocation of workers across jobs. It can in theory even lead to an increase in employment. This degree of employer power in labor markets and the inefficiency of labor market outcomes without wage standards help explain the general empirical finding that minimum wage increases in the United States have not caused significant employment declines, a finding that is counter to what one would expect if labor markets were competitive.1

California’s fast-food minimum wage has had minimal employment effects

Current evidence suggests that California’s fast-food minimum wage is no different in that it has raised wages without causing large, negative employment reductions. There are four studies on the specific wage and employment effects of the California fast-food minimum wage. Three studies show both sizable earnings effects and limited-to-no employment changes. One analysis, in contrast to the other three studies, shows moderately negative employment effects, but also found the policy raised the total earnings of fast-food workers.

Schneider, Harknett, and Bruey (2024) surveyed fast-food workers in large chains and showed that relative to other states, the California policy raised wages and had no effect on the usual number of hours of fast-food workers in the quarter after the minimum wage change. With data from Equifax, Hamdi and Sovich (2025) compared fast-food establishments within large firms across different states and found that California fast-food establishments raised wages by about 12% and increased employment by a statistically insignificant 2%. Sosinskiy and Reich (2025) used data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to study employment and earnings trends in fast-food restaurants in California relative to those in other states and to full-service restaurants in California, which are not directly bound by the fast-food minimum wage. The authors’ preferred specification estimated a wage increase of about 7% and an employment decline of just under 1% that was statistically indistinguishable from zero. Finally, Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) used QCEW data and estimated a similar wage increase of about 8%, but also a statistically significant employment decline of over 3%.2

In interpreting employment changes from a minimum wage increase, it’s best to compare the size of estimated wage effects with the estimated employment effects. The ratio of these two estimates—the own-wage elasticity of employment3—helps to gauge whether any employment changes were small or large relative to how much the policy actually raised wages. When the ratio is more positive than -1, total fast-food worker earnings rose even after accounting for potential employment losses. Standardizing the estimates by dividing employment and wage effects also allows us to make consistent comparisons across these studies and with studies of other minimum wage increases.

For the three studies where it is possible to calculate them, the own-wage elasticities are 0.19 (Hamdi and Sovich 2025), −0.12 (Sosinskiy and Reich 2025), and −0.40 (Clemens, Edwards, and Meer 2025). The first two are consistent with small or no employment impacts, but the last one moves into “medium negative” territory. All three studies’ estimates imply that the policy increased the aggregate earnings of fast-food workers, but the last study implies that employment losses caused fast-food workers to receive only about 60% of the potential earnings increase spurred by the minimum wage hike.

Even though Sosinskiy and Reich (2025) and Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) use similar data, one important difference is that the Sosinskiy and Reich (2025) study controls for population changes. Net immigration rapidly fell after the implementation of the policy, disproportionately affecting California’s population levels. For example, according to the latest Census estimates, California’s resident population did not grow in 2025, whereas the rest of the country’s population grew by about 0.5%. Not accounting for these different population trends between California and elsewhere could cause an analysis to overstate any employment declines stemming from the policy, particularly if fast-food employment levels are sensitive to falling labor supply or a shrinking customer base. In their appendix, Sosinskiy and Reich (2025) find that ignoring population changes causes their estimates to be more negative.

In addition, when selecting a comparison group for fast-food workers, Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) use fast-food workers in other states and high-wage industries in California, but they do not directly compare the California fast-food sector with the California full-service sector, which is not covered by the policy. Comparing the two sectors would be especially useful for capturing underlying economic trends if slowing population growth is driving declines in both fast-food and full-service employment levels. Indeed, Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) show that the policy did not raise wages in the California full-service sector, but full-service employment in California declined by close to 2%. Failing to account for this decline in full-service employment also causes the Clemens, Edwards, and Meer (2025) estimates to be more negative.

Regardless of the source of these differences, the average own-wage elasticity across the three studies is −0.11, suggesting that the fast-food policy was successful in raising wages without causing sizable job losses. This point estimate is very similar to the median elasticity of all published minimum wage studies on restaurants (see Dube and Zipperer 2025). However, even if the policy were associated with larger employment reductions, measured job losses may still overstate the consequences for low-wage workers. First, lower headcount employment in the fast-food sector does not automatically translate into reduced employment or lower wages for low-wage workers if they move to other low-wage jobs, like retail, where they must be paid at least the California $16.90 minimum wage. Second, a measured decline in headcounts in a high turnover sector like fast-food is more likely to manifest as more weeks in between jobs rather than being shut out of work completely; in that case, some fast-food workers would indeed be working less but earning more money over the course of the year due to higher hourly wage rates.4

Why wage standards need to be automatically adjusted

If wage standards stay fixed in nominal terms, they are reduced in real (inflation-adjusted) terms every year inflation is nonzero. When there is a burst of rapid inflation, these real wage cuts get large very quickly. In fact, steady inflation can combine with policy inaction to leave wage standards lower in real terms than they were the last time a legislated increase happened.

Take the example of the federal minimum wage. Its current value of $7.25 came into effect in 2009. Today’s inflation-adjusted value of the federal minimum wage is almost 40% lower than its historic peak. It reached this peak in 1968, in an economy where productivity (the income generated in an average hour of work in the economy) was just 46% as high as it is in 2025. 5

Figure B

Adjusted for inflation, the 2025 value of the federal minimum wage is in fact lower than it was in 2007 when the U.S. Congress and president last signed a legislated increase into law. Put simply, without effective and automatic indexation, higher wage standards can be eroded almost entirely over time.

Today’s debate over the cost-of-living adjustment to the California Fast Food Council’s minimum wage often frames such adjustments as imposing new burdens on low-wage employers. But inflation since April 2024 means that the real minimum wage paid to California’s fast-food workers has been steadily cut since then. From April 2024 to January 2026, as measured by the consumer price index for all urban wage earners (CPI-W), this cut amounts to 4.2%. Without indexation, any burden on employers from this wage standard has fallen considerably since its adoption, providing a windfall to low-wage employers at the expense of their frontline employees. A failure to regularly index for inflation is essentially a backdoor method for unraveling the wage standard that policymakers passed into law.

Price indexing wage standards is a necessary and conservative policy

Raising wage standards each year by an amount equal to inflation holds low-wage workers’ living standards steady at the level that prevailed when the wage standards were set. For example, the $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers in large chains in California came into effect in April 2024. If these wages are indexed regularly to account for inflation since then, this will keep California fast-food workers’ living standards frozen at April 2024 levels going forward.

This is a clear improvement compared with outright erosion of living standards. But it remains the case that price indexing wage standards is a conservative policy in the sense that it minimizes any potential burdens on low-wage employers. It is a conservative policy for two reasons: (1) indexed wage changes are very small relative to the initial phase-in of wage standards, and (2) indexing for prices allows productivity growth in the wider economy to steadily reduce any potential burden or need for adjustment imposed by wage standards.

Price indexations are very small increases to wage standards

The increases to wage standards that result from price indexation are significantly smaller than the increases that result when the standards are initially phased in. For example, say that the last federal minimum wage increase in 2009 also indexed for subsequent price changes. The initial phase-in of the higher federal minimum wage saw it rise from $5.15 to $7.25 between 2007 and 2009. This constituted an average annual change of 19% for these two years. The average annual inflation rate (measured by the consumer price index for all items) between 2007 and 2024 was just 2.5%.

If the initial introduction of higher wage standards does not cause problematic outcomes, then it is very hard to see how the much smaller changes spurred by indexation for price changes would cause any.

The research on minimum wages provides very little reason to worry that changes in the United States in recent decades have caused any such problematic outcomes. The most commonly expressed worries about minimum wage increases are employment losses and upward price pressure.

We noted earlier that studies looking specifically at the California wage standard continue a common pattern in research on the employment effects of phased-in minimum wages: Employment declines caused by these minimum wage changes tend to be extremely modest or even zero on average. If one applied the modest measured employment losses stemming from the large initial increase in fast-food wages to the much smaller indexed adjustments, these already small employment losses become totally trivial.

The same logic holds regarding potential upward price pressures stemming from indexation: Compared with the initial setting of wage standards, indexed changes are very small and therefore unlikely to push up prices.

It is a fact that one person’s income is another person’s cost, so as low-wage workers’ pay rises, this raises costs for their employers. These employers could pass on these costs (in part or in full) to their customers by raising prices. But even if the entirety of the wage increases driven by price indexing wage standards was passed on in the form of price increases, overall price pressures would be extremely modest and low-wage workers would still unambiguously come out ahead.

Say that low-wage workers’ pay constitutes a third of labor costs in the fast-food sector, and that labor costs in turn constitute a third of total costs of fast food.6 If low-wage workers’ pay rises by 3.5% due to price indexing, this would increase prices the employer charges customers by less than 0.4% even if the full amount was passed on as price increases. Because fast food accounts for less than 3% of the overall inflation consumption basket, even a 0.4% increase in fast-food prices would raise overall prices by only 0.01%.

Price indexing still sees reductions in low-wage workers’ relative pay and allows productivity growth to steadily erode any potential burden on low-wage employers

We noted earlier that price indexing a minimum wage essentially holds low-wage workers’ pay frozen thereafter at the level that prevailed when the wage was introduced. Again, this is better than allowing inflation to erode the real value of pay, but average incomes throughout the overall economy are not frozen over time in real terms. Instead, they rise faster than prices over any reasonable period. Inequality often keeps this growth in average living standards from reaching many (or even most) workers and families in the economy, but the potential for living standards to rise is generated every year of positive economic growth.

This means that even when wage standards are indexed to prices, low-wage workers’ relative standing in the economy still falls over time. Further, because low-wage workers’ earnings are a cost to their employers, this means that even with price indexing, any potential burden of wage standards on low-wage employers slightly declines any year that productivity rises. In this sense, price indexing of wage standards—providing regular cost-of-living adjustments based on price growth—is a conservative policy that allows the costs and benefits of wage standards to slowly erode over time relative to developments in the larger economy.

A quick example can help make this point. Say that pay for low-wage workers at a particular employer amounts to 20% of the final price of the firm’s output. Say that productivity (how much output is generated with each hour of work) rises by 2% per year. If low-wage workers’ pay rises only with inflation (and not with productivity) and all other firm costs rise with inflation and productivity, this implies that over 10 years the share of low-wage workers’ pay in total costs would fall to just 16.4% of total costs. Employers could use this decline in real costs to either lower their prices to consumers or raise their profit margins. Either way, so long as there is any growth in productivity, the burden of low-wage workers’ pay to employers falls even when this pay is indexed to inflation.

Price indexing is not the only option for adjusting wage standards. One could, for example, index growth in minimum wages to growth in wages at other parts of the wage distribution—growth in the median wage for example.7 An even more ambitious indexing choice would be to match wage changes to changes in average wages or even economy-wide productivity.8

The obvious benefit of using these alternative wage indexations would be faster wage growth and higher living standards for low-wage workers. The potential downside is that they do not allow any potential burden from higher wages for employers to relent over time—meaning that if the initial setting of wage standards is high enough to cause problematic outcomes (job losses or rapid price increases), then this would not smooth over time with wage indexation. Price indexation, conversely, would actually allow any higher than optimal initial wage standard to become less binding over time. In this sense, it is a conservative choice that is highly responsive to the pressures faced by low-wage employers.

In the case of the California Fast Food Council, the $20 minimum wage enacted in 2024 was an admirably ambitious standard. There is little persuasive evidence that it is too high in that it has caused any problematic outcomes on either the employment loss or price increase fronts. Yet it was high enough to provide a significant wage boost for affected workers. For these types of ambitious standards, indexing to prices seems necessary to protect workers’ gains yet conservative in that it puts declining pressure on low-wage employers over time. Further, since 2019, the limited-service restaurant sector has seen significant productivity growth—roughly 2% per year—which should allow any price indexation to be easily absorbed with no wrenching adjustments for employers.9

Different groups face different inflation rates: The case for discretion in indexing

The benefit of indexing wage standards for inflation is the protection it provides for the living standards of low-wage workers. The costs are the various adjustments or burdens forced onto employers. Because the group of low-wage workers and employers are heterogenous, and because inflation is measured by the aggregation of price changes across the entire economy, there remains room for judgement and discretion in balancing these costs and benefits.

The California Fast Food Council has some discretion, as they can either index wages up to 3.5% for inflation or they can decline to index these wages and let them be eroded.

We noted before that indexing only for prices (as opposed to indexing for wages or productivity growth) results in a steady reduction in any economic burden wage standards might place on employers. So long as these employers see any growth in productivity (the efficiency with which each hour of labor generates output), then having some portion of their wage costs fixed in real terms will see these costs become a progressively smaller share of total output over time. In this sense, simply choosing to index by prices means the cost of wage standards to employers is set to shrink consistently over time.

In terms of the benefits to low-wage workers, recent years have seen a large jump in the overall price level. Any given episode of inflation is likely to have uneven effects across groups in the economy. For example, the inflation of the 1970s was actually accompanied by an increase in real wages, even for low-wage workers.10 The inflationary spike in 2021 and 2022, conversely, was largely driven by large increases in profit margins, which meant that real wages for most workers fell in those years.

More systematically, inflation faced by various groups in the economy can diverge if they have different consumption baskets that skew average price growth in a predictable way. For example, housing makes up a larger share of consumption spending for lower-income households than higher-income households, and in recent decades the price of housing as measured by the consumer price index has slightly outpaced overall price growth. This implies that inflation faced by lower-income households has likely been systematically higher than that faced by higher-income households. This makes the overall CPI that informs discussions of wage indexation inadequate for fully protecting lower-wage workers from inflation in recent years.

Concretely, the CPI-W, which is the price index the Council can target, has risen by 4.2% since April 2024. This means that a 3.5% cost of living adjustment—the largest that can be granted by the Fast Food Council—would not quite neutralize the affordability losses experienced by workers since the $20 minimum wage was enacted. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2025) indicates that households in the bottom 40% of the income distribution saw inflation between April 2024 and August 2025 (the most recent data point available) that averaged 0.2% higher than overall inflation. This means actual inflation faced by many fast-food workers in California exceeded 4% since the introduction of the $20 wage standard.

The bias in actually experienced inflation stemming from housing runs even deeper. The housing component of the CPI essentially assumes everybody is paying market rent for their housing. There are good reasons for this decision, but it means that discretion and judgement must enter into using the CPI for different purposes. Well over half of the U.S. population owns their homes, and these people have significantly higher incomes on average than renters. Homeowners either have no monthly housing payment or pay a mortgage that is fixed over time and therefore experiences no inflation. By assuming these homeowning households experience the average amount of rental inflation each month the CPI overstates actually experienced inflation for homeowners.

This means when weighing the interests of low-wage workers against other economic actors—including consumers facing potential price increases stemming from wage standards—the real gap in living standards growth is likely larger than what would be implied by assuming all households face the same CPI inflation. Given this, there is a strong case for policymakers to use their discretion to put a countervailing thumb on the scale by boosting low-wage workers’ pay.

Notes

1. For a review of the estimates of employment loss caused by minimum wage increases, see Dube and Zipperer 2025.

2. There is an additional study by Pandit (2026) that estimates the fast-food minimum wage caused an 8% decline in staffing intensity based on long-duration visits from mobile phone location data. However, the study finds almost all of the estimated effect occurred before the actual policy went into effect, with little-to-no change in the proxy for employment activity after the effective date of the minimum wage increase on April 1, 2024. It is hard to believe that in a very high turnover industry like fast food—where employers can adjust employment levels rapidly by reducing hiring—that businesses would reduce staffing levels several months before being compelled to pay higher wages, but then not change employment levels at all after actually being required to increase wages. The study also provides no evidence on wage changes, cannot distinguish between headcounts and hours reductions, and excludes new businesses that may have started during the policy period.

3. For an explanation of the importance of the own-wage elasticity in interpreting studies of the minimum wage’s effect on employment, see Dube and Zipperer 2024.

4. See Cooper, Mishel, and Zipperer 2018 for the importance of accounting for turnover rates when assessing the likely implications of any measured employment decline.

5. See Economic Policy Institute 2025a for data on productivity levels over time.

6. Both of these assumptions are likely close to true or overstate the actual price pressure that would be experienced from price indexing wage standards in fast food. For the leisure and hospitality sector—the larger sector in which fast-food (or limited-service) restaurants are embedded—aggregate weekly payrolls are roughly $10 billion. To estimate low-wage workers’ aggregate pay, we took the number of leisure and hospitality sector workers making less than $17 per hour in 2024 (5.7 million) and multiplied this by $17 and by 35 hours per week. All of these (the high $17 threshold for defining “low-wage”, the assumption that all making under $17 were making exactly $17, and the 35 hours per week) likely increase the estimate of low-wage workers’ wage bill in the sector. Making these generous assumptions yields a weekly wage bill of roughly $3.4 billion, or just over a third of the total wage bill in the sector. For total labor costs as a share of total output in the sector, we used the Composition of Gross Output by Industry table from the GDP by Industry accounts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

7. Growth in wages has been used to index some labor standards. Under the overtime rule enacted by the Obama administration the salary threshold for being granted automatic rights to overtime protections was set at the 40th percentile of annual earnings in the lowest-wage region of the country.

8. Social Security uses an “average wage index” to deflate workers’ past earnings to calculate their initial Social Security benefit amount. This implicitly credits recipients for overall economic growth (overwhelmingly determined by productivity) over the course of their working life.

9. This figure calculated from data provided by the Detailed Industry Productivity database from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10. See Economic Policy Institute 2025b, specifically the wages for workers at the 10th percentile.

References

Bivens, Josh. 2022. “Corporate Profits Have Contributed Disproportionately to Inflation: How Should Policymakers Respond?” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), April 21, 2022.

Clemens, Jeffrey, Olivia Edwards, and Jonathan Meer. 2025. “Did California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?” NBER Working Paper no. 34033, July 2025.

Cooper, David, Larry Mishel, and Ben Zipperer. 2018. Bold Increases in the Minimum Wage Should Be Evaluated for the Benefits of Raising Low-Wage Workers’ Total Earnings. Economic Policy Institute, April 18, 2018.

Dube, Arindrajit, and Ben Zipperer. 2024. “Own-Wage Elasticity: Quantifying the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment.” NBER Working Paper no. 32925, September 2024.

Dube, Arindrajit, and Ben Zipperer. 2025. Minimum wage own-wage elasticity repository, Version 2025.9.1., https://economic.github.io/owe.

Economic Policy Institute. 2026. “The Productivity-Pay Gap” (web page). Last updated January 16, 2026.

Economic Policy Institute. 2025a. State of Working America Data Library, “Productivity and pay levels – Productivity and pay, real dollars per hour (2024$).”

Economic Policy Institute. 2025b. State of Working America Data Library, “Minimum wage – Real minimum wage (2024$).”

Economic Policy Institute. 2025c. State of Working America Data Library, “Hourly wage percentiles – Real hourly wage (2024$).”

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2025. “Economic Heterogeneity Indicators.” Accessed January 2026.

Hamdi, Naser, and David Sovich. 2025. “The Wage and Employment Effects of California’s Fast-Food Minimum Wage.” SSRN, March 28, 2025.

KFF. 2025. “Population Distribution by Citizenship Status.” Accessed January 23, 2026.

MacDonald, Daniel, and Eric Nilsson. 2016. “The Effect of Increasing the Minimum Wage on Prices: Analyzing the Incidence of Policy Design and Context.” Upjohn Institute Working Paper no. 16-260, June 2016.

Manning, Alan. 2003. Monopsony in Motion: Imperfect Competition in Labor Markets. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press.

Pandit, Hitanshu. 2026. “Simply Can’t Wait: Evaluating the Effect of California’s Fast-Food Minimum Wage Increase.” SSRN, February 23, 2026. 

Schmitt, John. 2013. Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment? Center for Economic Policy and Research.

Schneider, Daniel, Kristen Harknett, and Kevin Bruey. 2024. Early Effects of California’s $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage: Large Wage Increases with No Effects on Hours, Scheduling, or Benefits. The Shift Project, October 2024.

Sosinskiy, Denis, and Michael Reich. 2025. “A $20 Minimum Wage: Effects on Wages, Employment and Prices.” Institute for Research on Labor and Employment Working Paper, September 2025.

United States Census Bureau (Census). 2026. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025. NST-EST2025-POP. Accessed January 27, 2026.

Zipperer, Ben. 2024. “Most Minimum Wage Studies Have Found Little or No Job Loss.” Working Economics Blog (Economic Policy Institute), September 9, 2024.

Key takeaways:

• Ballot initiatives have enabled voters to advance worker-centered policies—like higher minimum wages—in states with hostile legislatures, particularly in the South.
• A coordinated, right-wing legislative attack on ballot initiative processes is attempting to reverse ballot initiative wins, scare advocates out of using the ballot process, and make it harder to get future measures on the ballot that improve standards for workers.
• Despite these barriers, advocates and voters are fighting back to protect pro-worker ballot access and advance new progressive ballot measures.

In recent years, state ballot initiatives have served as powerful tools to advance economic opportunity for working families. Voters directly have raised the minimum wage, secured paid sick leave, protected abortion access, enacted bail reform, expanded Medicaid, and increased funding for public education—all popular progressive economic policies that some state legislatures have failed to enact. However, some conservative state legislatures have responded by overturning or limiting recent wins. And in the few Southern states where voters can access ballot measures—Arkansas, Florida, and Oklahoma—conservative legislators are waging war against the ballot initiative process itself, attempting to obstruct the will of voters and make it permanently more difficult for the public to directly decide on policy choices.

Why ballot initiatives are important for advancing economic opportunity

Ballot initiatives are a form of direct democracy in which voters have the power to decide on a proposed new law or constitutional amendment. Currently, 26 states and the District of Columbia offer voters access to ballot measures in some form, as do many more localities.

While more than half of the country has access to some form of direct democracy, ballot access is heavily concentrated in Western and Northern states. Only three states in the Deep South—Arkansas, Florida, and Oklahoma—effectively have ballot initiative processes. Attacks on the ballot process are intensifying in each of these states.

Ballot initiatives are more important than ever for advancing worker-centered policies that both Congress and state legislatures have failed to enact despite clear voter support. For example, Republican lawmakers have repeatedly blocked legislative proposals to increase the minimum wage (federally and in many states) despite the popularity of increasing the minimum wage and the positive impacts it has on workers and families. In the absence of federal action, 30 states, the District of Columbia, and almost 70 localities have adopted minimum wages above the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour. Of these states, 43% (13 states) used ballot measures to secure the increase. An additional three states used direct democracy to increase minimum wages that already exceeded the federal floor.

Ballot measures have been especially critical to achieving minimum wage increases in Southern states like Arkansas and Florida. Only four other states in the South—Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia—have increased their minimum wages via legislation likely due to higher minimum wages in neighboring states or Democratic legislative majorities.

Paid leave laws have remained similarly scarce across the South. Of the 18 states with some form of statewide paid sick leave, only one—Maryland—is in the South. Attempts to expand paid leave access in Southern states have so far been limited to narrow state legislation covering only some public employees, or local efforts threatened with state preemption, demonstrating the need for ballot initiatives.  

Right-wing attempts to weaken direct democracy in the South

In response to the success of progressive ballot measures, right-wing lawmakers have launched attacks on direct democracy, particularly in the South.  

Opponents of ballot access have especially targeted the signature process to delay or block measures from reaching the ballot. This strategy arose in Mississippi via a court challenge to a 2020 ballot initiative allowing the use of medical marijuana, which 74% of voters approved. As advocates including the Mississippi NAACP were building support for new ballot measures to expand Medicaid, the courts struck down the ballot process. Even though Mississippi’s Constitution guarantees voters access to ballot initiatives, the state Supreme Court ruled that no ballot initiative could be valid because of outdated constitutional language establishing the signature rules. (The old rules do not account for the lower number of congressional districts in Mississippi after redistricting, making it impossible to reach the signature threshold to put a measure on the ballot.)  

Following the Mississippi blueprint, direct democracy opponents in other Southern states have begun to challenge the signature process. After Arkansas voters passed minimum wage increases through ballot measures, the Arkansas legislature passed new state laws that could empower the state attorney general to invalidate a request for signatures because of the title of the measure. If and when the signature process begins, a host of laws make it much more difficult for canvassers to collect signatures. Canvassers must now confirm the voter reads the ballot title, inform voters that petition fraud is a crime, check voter identification, and file an affidavit stating they have complied with all laws. Scare tactics directed at both petition canvassers and signers make it harder to collect signatures out of fear that exercising their constitutional rights may lead to imprisonment.

Following minimum wage increases that passed via ballot measures, the Florida legislature followed a similar strategy of restricting the signature process for citizen-led constitutional amendments. Their legislation excludes people with felonies, people without citizenship, and non-Florida residents from being canvassers. It also requires canvassers to register with the state or face a third-degree felony charge which could be punishable by up to five years in prison. Once the signatures are collected, the law also requires the sponsor to deliver the petitions within 10 days after a voter signs, as opposed to once all signatures are collected. These restrictions deeply limit the number of people who can collect signatures and add burdensome labor to the petition sponsor by requiring frequent trips to deliver the petitions. In 2025, advocates met the signature threshold to put recreational cannabis on the ballot, but the new laws invalidated over 70,000 signatures and prevented the measure from reaching voters.  

Finally, conservative lawmakers in Oklahoma have launched attacks on the ballot process. Oklahoma organizers have already secured the signatures for a 2026 ballot measure to increase the minimum wage. In response, lawmakers attacked the signature process, restricting the share of eligible voters who can sign initiative petitions per county and consequently weakening the influence of voters in the most populous counties like Oklahoma and Tulsa counties. The Oklahoma Policy Institute explains that this new requirement would “exclude 2.2 million registered voters (or 94.4% of registered voters) from signing a petition for statutory amendments.” The restriction also has racial implications with Tulsa County home to 23% of Black Oklahomans and Oklahoma County home to 41% of Black Oklahomans. Compounding the new restrictions, the law also gives the secretary of state the authority to determine the legality of a proposal. The new law also requires that paid petitioners disclose their employer to the secretary of state and prohibits paying canvassers with out-of-state funding or based on the amount of signatures they collect, among other tactics to invoke fear.

Overall, these new petition processes can make signature collection more costly due to administrative barriers that only allow the most well-funded campaigns to have any chance of making the ballot. Consequently, the process now lends itself to causes backed by corporate interests or wealthy supporters which may not reflect the needs of average voters, contradicting the goals of ballot access policies intended to democratize decision-making.

Despite attacks, voters are still fighting to launch ballot initiative campaigns and protect direct democracy

Despite growing attacks on the ballot process, organizing across the country—and in the South—persists. In June 2026, Oklahoma State Question 832 will be on the ballot, proposing to gradually increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2029. In Florida, ballot measures proposing various constitutional amendments are moving forward to expand Medicaid, legalize recreational use of marijuana, and codify the right to clean and healthy water.

Advocates are also organizing to protect the constitutional right to ballot access itself. Arkansas Public Policy Panel and the Protect AR Rights coalition continue to fight back and win against new restrictions on ballot measures, filing lawsuits and proposing a new ballot question that would make ballot access a “fundamental right.” Their new ballot question was approved in July 2025, clearing one of the last barriers for signature collection. In Oklahoma, advocates have filed two lawsuits opposing new restrictions on ballot measures—especially the state’s ability to disrupt the signature collection process—and are awaiting a decision from the state’s Supreme Court.

Voters are similarly fighting back in states where legislators have rolled back successful pro-worker ballot measures. In response to the Nebraska legislature weakening a new paid sick leave law won via ballot measure, the Respect Nebraska Voters coalition is organizing for a new ballot measure to make it more difficult for the legislature to reverse the will of voters. Missouri legislators repealed parts of a successful ballot measure that established paid sick leave and attached a cost-of-living increase to the minimum wage. Voter outrage over the legislative betrayal has “kicked the hornet’s nest,” according to the bipartisan Respect Missouri Voters coalition, which recently submitted over 20 versions of new petitions to protect ballot initiatives. If implemented, these petitions would require an 80% legislative majority to overturn a successful ballot initiative law or constitutional amendment, prohibit barriers to signature collection, allow corrections to misleading ballot language, and add other ballot protections.

The essence of ballot access is the will of the people becoming law. Despite legislative efforts to obstruct direct democracy, Southern advocates and voters continue to push for the voice of everyday people to be heard and for policies that improve the lives of workers and their family members.

Key takeaways:

• Trump has weaponized the EEOC to go after employers with diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, accusing them of “reverse racism” against white workers—but nothing in the EEOC’s own data points to evidence of systemic discrimination against white workers.
• People of color have made up a growing share of the U.S. working-age population since 1989, while the share of the white working-age population has fallen from 76.9% in 1989 to 55.4% in 2025.
• According to data submitted to the EEOC by large employers, workers of color make up more than 40% of the workforce but hold only 1 in 5 executive or senior-level positions—a pattern that contradicts the administration’s narrative of bias against white workers.

Trump’s Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) recently opened a federal investigation into Nike and its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives—alleging systemic discrimination against white workers. This is the first time the EEOC has targeted a large private employer with a federal investigation and subpoena explicitly linked to their DEI initiatives and hiring goals. Shortly thereafter, the EEOC sued a Coca-Cola bottling company for sex discrimination following a networking event it held for female employees. The EEOC chair closed a busy February with a letter to Fortune 500 companies, warning them about “unlawful discrimination” related to their use of DEI initiatives.

These recent EEOC actions reflect Trump’s undue control over the agency and his administration’s effective weaponization of the EEOC to fight against DEI, a broad set of programs and initiatives designed to remedy the long and well-documented history of systemic injustices against people of color and women in the labor market. Established by the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the EEOC has operated as an independent federal agency throughout its 60-year history enforcing employment nondiscrimination laws—until last year.

EEOC Chair Andrea Lucas has repeatedly affirmed her commitment to redirecting the EEOC’s priorities toward those of the administration; she has made the scrutiny of DEI programs and initiatives a top enforcement priority. This restructuring of EEOC priorities follows the administration’s revisionist version of history that centers white men—not people of color and women—as the primary victims of labor market discrimination. In an unprecedented move last December, Chair Lucas actively solicited discrimination complaints from white male workers, arguing that DEI initiatives function as illegal quotas that make it easier for employers to discriminate against white men. Previous EEOC chairs have avoided using their platform to solicit charges from specific demographic groups. In January 2026, the Republican majority voted to give the chair more power to decide which matters reach the full commission and to require nearly all litigation to be approved by the commissioners. The vote to centralize power with the chair and Republican majority completely neutralizes bipartisan decision-making over which cases to pursue.

Right-wing commentators have cited a now debunked report that over 90% of new corporate hires were people of color as evidence of DEI gone too far. In this post, we expose the fallacy of such claims by showing increased employment among people of color is consistent with demographic changes in the working-age population. The Trump EEOC’s targeting of employers with programs aimed at improving hiring and promotion of historically underrepresented groups defies the ongoing demographic changes of the U.S. labor force and the spirit of the Civil Rights Act that created the agency. Under current law, anyone who believes they’ve experienced discrimination based on race, sex, color, religion, national origin, age, and disability can file a charge. By prioritizing so-called “reverse discrimination,” fewer of the underfunded agency’s resources will be available to investigate systemic inequities against workers of color or members of any other protected class.

DEI programs or not, the U.S. working population is increasingly more diverse and less white

 As Trump’s EEOC goes after private employers based on their efforts to improve workplace diversity, equity, and inclusion, it is important to understand that non-Hispanic white workers are a smaller share of the U.S. workforce than they were decades ago. In 1989, for example, more than 3 out of 4 people between the ages of 16 and 64 were white (see Figure A). This share declined by 28% over the course of the last three decades. In 2025, just over half (55.4%) of the U.S. working-age population was white. People of color, on the other hand, have become an increasing share of the working-age population since 1989.

Figure A

Last year, more than 2 in 5 individuals between the ages of 16 and 64 were either Hispanic, Black, or Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI). This figure nearly doubled between 1989 and 2025. A significant share of this growth can be attributed to the growth of the Hispanic working-age population, which nearly tripled over the course of the last three decades with increased immigration.

Figure B

This demographic shift is most evident among younger workers—the new hires who will gradually replace less diverse cohorts of older workers as they retire. Nearly 1 in 2 individuals between the ages of 16 to 24 are either Black, Hispanic, AAPI, or American Indian and Alaska Native (see Figure B), up more than 80% since 1989. Based on these numbers, it is only logical that historically underrepresented groups of workers account for a larger share of employment now and in the future than they did decades ago—regardless of DEI initiatives. In fact, workplaces that reflect the growing diversity of the labor force are a sign of less discrimination, not of a bias against white workers. Moreover, employers who set and pursue DEI goals that develop the talent and career growth of workers of color are making forward-looking investments in the leadership of the future workforce. This has been a primary motivation and justification for many DEI initiatives.

Despite the growing diversification of the U.S. workforce, EEOC data suggest that people of color continue to be underrepresented in leadership positions

While Trump’s EEOC targets and accuses employers with equity initiatives of bias against white workers, demographic statistics reported to the regulatory agency paint a different picture when it comes to representation in leadership roles. Private employers with 100 or more employees and federal contractors with 50 or more employees are required to file an annual EEO-1 report. These data are used to support EEOC enforcement efforts and can raise flags about systemic patterns of discrimination. Based on publicly available EEO-1 data for 2023 (latest year), white workers are significantly more likely to be overrepresented in leadership positions (see Figure C). In 2023, for example, Black, Hispanic, AAPI, and AIAN workers accounted for more than 40% of workers in all job categories at EEO-1 reporting firms, but only about 1 in 5 employees in executive- or senior-level positions. Similarly, less than 1 in 3 workers in mid-level, managerial positions identified as Black, Hispanic, AAPI, or AIAN in 2023.

Figure C

Table 1 presents the 2023 data along with data for 2020—the year several private employers launched DEI initiatives in response to the racial reckoning that followed the murder of George Floyd at the hands of police officers—and 2017. While it is impossible to disentangle DEI from demographic and pandemic effects based on these data alone, we can see changes in the racial composition of employees at EEO-1 reporting firms over these years that are generally consistent with changes in the working-age population shown in Figure A. More importantly, nothing in these statistics points to evidence of systemic “DEI-motivated discrimination” against white workers. Relative to the preceding three years, between 2020 and 2023, there was a larger increase in the share of all people of color employed in executive-/senior- level and first-/mid-level management positions—3.7 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively—but white workers remained significantly overrepresented in these roles. Throughout the entire period, Black and Hispanic workers remained grossly underrepresented relative to their share of all positions.

Table 1

The Trump EEOC’s intentional diversion of attention and resources away from more prevalent forms of discrimination will hurt all workers

Aggregate results alone neither qualify nor disqualify a charge of discrimination against a specific employer. All charges, whether filed by an individual or an EEOC commissioner, are individually investigated— a process involving extensive information gathering and detailed examination of the facts to assess the merits of the charge. The administration’s aggressive search for evidence of “reverse discrimination” diverts the limited resources of an already understaffed and underfunded agency away from investigating more prevalent forms of racial and gender discrimination that are consistent with persistent racial and gender wage gaps and patterns of occupational segregation.

It would be a mistake to assume that Trump and the Republican majority leading the EEOC don’t understand the nature of demographic changes in the U.S. population and labor market. The administration’s campaign against DEI initiatives and accusations of bias against white male workers represent an emboldened assertion of white supremacy to stoke fear and to recast growing racial, ethnic, and gender diversity as a threat to social and economic advantages historically afforded to white men. This is a strategy that has often led to periods of slower economic growth and greater economic inequality. In the end, it not only makes the American workplace less fair, but it also risks lowering the standard of living for all working people and their families. 

Unfortunately, many families today struggle to make ends meet because their pay hasn’t risen nearly as fast as it could have with a growing economy over the last five decades. This is a direct result of bad policy choices advancing corporate interests at the expense of typical workers. An accompanying Wage Calculator reveals how much higher workers’ pay could be if wages had kept up with productivity growth since 1979. For a worker making the median annual wage of $53,383, their wage would be $76,315 if it had risen in line with productivity gains.

San Francisco tops the list of most expensive metro areas, according to the Family Budget Calculator. A two-parent, two-child household needs an annual income of $231,305 to afford a modest yet adequate standard of living. While the median family income in San Francisco is the second highest in the country ($176,777), this still isn’t enough to pay for the basics.

Gibson County, Tennessee, is the least expensive metro area in the country. A two-parent, two-child household needs an annual income of $82,005 to afford a basic budget, but the median family income falls short at only $71,228 per year. An interactive map compares costs of living across the country.

The Family Budget Calculator can be used to assess a living-wage level and illustrates that states like Oklahoma need a higher minimum wage. But it’s not just Oklahoma—the Family Budget Calculator shows that nowhere in the country can a minimum-wage worker meet the requirements of their local family budget on their wages alone.

“The Family Budget Calculator is a stark reminder that many employers do not pay workers enough to meet their family’s basic needs. Raising wages is a critical, but often overlooked, component of solving the affordability crisis,” said EPI senior economist Elise Gould.

Key takeaways

• EPI’s updated Family Budget Calculator shows how much income it takes to afford basic expenses in every metro area and county across the United States in 2025.
• The Family Budget Calculator can be used to assess a living-wage level and shows that states like Oklahoma need a higher minimum wage. The state’s minimum wage falls short by over $12 an hour in meeting a one-person budget in the state’s lowest cost county.
• Voters in Oklahoma will have the chance to raise their state’s minimum wage this summer, which will help low-wage workers better achieve a decent standard of living.
• As of 2025, there is no county or metro area in the country where a minimum-wage worker is paid enough to meet the requirements of their local family budget on their wages alone.

Now updated with 2025 data, EPI’s widely cited Family Budget Calculator (FBC) shows what it takes to make ends meet for different family types in all counties and metro areas in the United States. For more than 20 years, we have calculated family budgets for basic expenses like housing, food, health care, child care, transportation, other necessities, and taxes. In doing so, we create a more location-specific and realistic assessment of cost of living than traditional poverty thresholds.

We use government-provided data where possible and stay up to date with changes in policy and data availability. Because of this, and due to related changes in methodology, we don’t recommend comparing budgets over time. For more details on the construction of EPI’s family budgets and all of the datasets we use, see the full methodology. For a video tutorial on how to use the FBC, see here. The full dataset is downloadable here.

Example case: Most and least expensive metro areas in Oklahoma

Using family budgets in Oklahoma as an example, Figure A compares each budget component for one-parent, one-child and two-parent, two-child families in the state’s least expensive (Fort Smith) and most expensive (Tulsa) metro areas. Technically, the city of Fort Smith is located in Arkansas, but the metro area crosses into Oklahoma.

Costs for a one-parent, one-child family budget vary from $61,928 in Fort Smith to $73,678 in Tulsa, with housing and transportation being two of the largest costs. In areas with limited access to public transit, the costs of buying, maintaining, and driving a car can be a large burden.

Food, health care, and child care are considerably more expensive for larger families. For a two-parent, two-child family, the total cost of affording a basic standard of living ranges from $87,994 in Fort Smith to $103,642 in Tulsa. The largest difference between Fort Smith and Tulsa is the cost of child care, which is 50% more expensive in Tulsa.

Figure A

The Family Budget Calculator can be used to calculate living wages

The FBC has been cited by living-wage advocates, private employers, academics, and policymakers who are looking for comprehensive measures of economic security. EPI’s family budget tool is also frequently used to gauge the adequacy of labor earnings, and we are often asked how to construct a living-wage standard from our family budget numbers. Doing so requires making choices and assumptions about how a family’s needs could or should be met that will result in different “living wage” values. For instance, health care expenses could be covered primarily by families, employers, or public programs (such as Medicare or through premium subsidies in the health insurance marketplace). We provide a user’s guide to translate our FBC data into living wages.

The FBC can be used to roughly calculate the hourly wage necessary to meet a family budget through labor market income alone. For a full-time, year-round worker providing for themselves and their family, we simply divide the required budget by 2,080 (40 hours a week multiplied by 52 weeks a year) to get an hourly wage equivalent. The full dataset of living-wage options is downloadable here.

Example case: McIntosh County

McIntosh County—located in Muscogee (Creek) Tribal Jurisdiction—is the lowest cost county in Oklahoma for single adult households. Figure B shows that a full-time, year-round adult worker without children would need to be paid $19.99 per hour to meet the requirements of their $41,577 budget to attain a modest yet adequate standard of living. The current minimum wage in Oklahoma—$7.25 an hour—falls short by $12.74 per hour, or $26,500 annually. In other words, minimum wage workers are paid less than 40% of what they need to afford to live, even in the least expensive county in Oklahoma.

One common benchmark for setting living wages is that an adult working full time should be able to support themselves and one child. In McIntosh County, a worker with one child would need to be paid $30.99 per hour to afford an annual budget of $64,456. This means that Oklahoma’s current minimum wage is $23.74 per hour lower than a living wage, or almost $49,400 annually.

These basic calculations assume that all income comes from wages, but wages are not the only resource available to families. If an employer offers health insurance or the state subsidizes child care, the wage needed to meet a basic family budget would be reduced, as shown in Figure B. Conversely, if reasonable savings for retirement, college, or emergencies are considered critical budget items, then the living wage required would be even greater.

Figure B

Oklahoma needs a higher minimum wage

Our Family Budget Calculator highlights the need for a higher minimum wage in Oklahoma. The state still follows the dismally low federal minimum wage, which Congress has not updated since 2009 despite 44.1% cumulative inflation since then. At $7.25 per hour, the federal minimum wage is not high enough to keep workers out of poverty, much less provide a modest yet adequate standard of living.

It’s time for Oklahoma to pass a minimum wage increase that can support workers and their families across the state, and residents are ready for the change. In 2024, more than 157,000 Oklahomans signed a petition to request a statewide election to vote on whether to raise the state’s minimum wage. Although organizers collected enough signatures well before the deadline to be placed on the November 2024 ballot, a lengthy certification process delayed State Question (SQ) 832’s approval. In September 2024, Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt delayed the vote by nearly two years and scheduled it for June 2026.

If voters pass the measure this summer, SQ 832 will increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2029, starting with an increase to $12 per hour in 2027. The legislation also mandates annual inflation adjustments starting in 2030 and extends the wage floor to historically excluded categories of workers such as tipped workers, farmworkers, part-time employees, domestic workers, and feed store employees.

According to EPI’s 2024 estimates, this higher minimum wage would benefit 320,000 Oklahoman workers (directly benefiting the more than 200,000 Oklahomans who are paid less than $15 per hour and indirectly boosting wages for another 119,000 workers.) Low-wage workers are not just teenagers working fast-food jobs on the weekends; nearly 82.0% of affected workers are age 20 or older and more than half (51.3%) are working full time. Women in particular are more likely to work at or near the minimum wage, making up almost two-thirds (62.9%) of affected workers.

Workers of color are also disproportionately more likely than white workers to work low-wage jobs: while they make up about one-third (34.8%) of the Oklahoma workforce, they are nearly half of the affected workforce (48.7%). This disparity is the outcome of decades of violence and discrimination. For example, the destruction of Tulsa’s Black Wall Street brought an end to a vital center for Black economic advancement. Higher wages, alongside strong nondiscrimination laws, are necessary to rectify this inequality.

Oklahoma is one of the country’s poorest states, with one in seven residents (14.9%) living in poverty and nearly one in five (18.9%) children living at or below the federal poverty line. Passing SQ 832 and raising the minimum wage would alleviate poverty, help workers and their families, and boost Oklahoma’s economy. Without it, many Oklahomans will continue to struggle to afford basic necessities as costs of living grow.

But it’s not just Oklahoma—the Family Budget Calculator shows that nowhere in the country can a minimum-wage worker meet the requirements of their local family budget on their wages alone. Raising wages is a critical, but often overlooked, component of solving the affordability crisis. EPI’s Family Budget Calculator is a vital tool for understanding the wages and resources that are needed for families to afford the true cost of living across the United States.