References

American Community Survey (ACS). 1-Year 2023 microdata, Accessed via IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.

American Community Survey (ACS). 2019–2023 pooled microdata, Accessed via IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.

Center for Migration Studies. 2026. Estimates of Undocumented and Eligible-to-Naturalize Populations by State. Retrieved July 13, 2026.

Davis, Carl, Marco Guzman, and Emma Sifre. 2024. Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, July 2024.

Economic Policy Institute (EPI). 2024. Current Population Survey Extracts, Version 1.0.60, https://microdata.epi.org.

Escobari, Marcela, Ian Seyal, and Paul Beach. 2026. Shock, Awe, and Economic Fallout: The Employment Effects of ICE Enforcement in U.S. Cities. The Brookings Institution, May 2026.

Peri, Giovanni, and Reem Zaiour. 2021. Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants Would Boost U.S. Economic Growth, Center for American Progress, June 2021.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Accessed via Zipperer, B (2025). realtalk: Price Index Data for the US Economy. R Package Version 0.19.0, https://economic.github.io/realtalk/.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). 2024. Count of Active DACA Recipients by State or Territory, as of September 30, 2024.

Wilson, Jill H. 2025. Temporary Protected Status and Deferred Enforced Departure. Congressional Research Service Report RS20844, August 2025.

Wong, Tom K., Ignacia Rodriguez Kmec, Diana Pliego, Karen Fierro Ruiz, Silva Mathema, Ben Greenho, and Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer. 10th Annual DACA Survey: 2024 Findings Reveal What’s at Stake for Recipients and the United States. Center for American Progress, August 2025.

Zipperer, Ben. 2025. Trump’s Deportation Agenda Will Destroy Millions of Jobs. Economic Policy Institute, July 2025.

Last updated September 2026

Updated August 6, 2026, to correct the teachers, firefighters, and nurses benefits percentages.

The National Priorities Project (NPP) at the Institute for Policy Studies has estimated the federal government plans to spend $268.9 billion to undertake mass deportations throughout the second Trump administration. NPP’s methodology is explained here.

The Cost of Deportations Calculator breaks down who shoulders the cost by state, county, place, and congressional district based on the area’s share of federal income taxes paid. “State” includes the District of Columbia, and “place” as used by the U.S. Census encompasses cities, towns, and smaller jurisdictions, including unincorporated areas. The calculator also estimates the average cost per taxpayer in each state, county, place, and district (it is $2,358 for U.S. taxpayers as a whole). “Taxpayers” are tax filers, including joint filers, who owe federal income tax after credits.

The calculator compares each area’s share of the cost of deportations with potential trade-offs, such as the number of teachers who could be employed over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration if the money were not being spent on mass deportations. The cost of trade-offs varies by state, but cost differences by county, place, or district do not factor into estimates.

Sources and methodology for federal income tax shares

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Statistics of Income (SOI) program publishes tables showing the taxes paid and the number of taxpayers by state, county, congressional district, and zip code. As of July 2026, the most recent geographic tables are for 2022. These tables are used to estimate the share of federal income taxes paid, and, by extension, the share of mass deportation costs for each area.

The denominator used in tax share estimates—total federal income tax paid—is from SOI’s Individual Income Tax Returns Complete Report, 2022. This total is slightly larger than the sum of taxes paid in the 50 states and District of Columbia because it includes taxes paid by taxpayers who live overseas, serve in the military, etc. Similarly, sums for smaller geographic areas within states may be less than state totals because some taxpayers were not assigned to specific counties, places, or districts.

SOI does not publish tax information for cities and towns, only for metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs. Since MSAs do not generally correspond to administrative jurisdictions, NPP has constructed tax share estimates for cities and towns (“places”) using SOI tax data by zip code. NPP apportioned zip code data to places using Geocorr crosswalks from the Missouri Census Data Center. Because zip codes can span jurisdictions, these tax shares are approximations based on how populations in these zip codes are distributed across places.

Trade-off costs

The cost of trade-offs is based on the cost of a subset of the National Priorities Project’s budget trade-offs, with minor differences described below.

When cost estimates are based on pre-2026 data, they are inflated to May 2026 dollars using the consumer price index (CPI-U). Costs are further inflated to 2027 and 2028 dollars based on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Second Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters (the projections are for CPI inflation rates of 2.4% and 2.5% in 2027 and 2028, respectively).

Compensation costs are a combination of annual mean wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) and benefit costs from BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC) statistics. All data are the latest available as of July 2026.

OEWS annual wages are generally not available for the intersection of state, occupation, and sector. Therefore, annual wage estimates for teachers, firefighters, and nurses include both public- and private-sector workers.

ECEC benefit costs are not available at the state level. They are available for a limited number of occupations and for public- and private-sector workers, but not every combination of sector and occupation. The calculator excludes the cost of paid leave from benefits, since this is already included in OEWS annual wage estimates.

Elementary school teachers

This is an estimate of how many additional elementary school teachers could be employed in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

Teachers’ annual mean wage by state in May 2025 (inflated to 2026–2028 dollars) is from BLS OEWS data for “Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education.” Annual wages are estimated by multiplying hourly wages by 2,080 hours. Since many teachers have summers off, this may be a conservative estimate of the number of additional teachers who could be employed.

Teacher benefits are estimated at 48.1% of pay based on national ECEC data for “state and local government workers”/ “preschool, elementary, middle, secondary, and special education teachers” in 2025Q2. The dollar cost of paid leave is excluded because it is included in annual wages.

Firefighters

This is an estimate of how many additional firefighters could be employed in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

Firefighters’ annual mean wage by state in May 2025 (inflated to 2026–2028 dollars) is from BLS OEWS data. Firefighter benefits as a percent of pay are estimated at 50.6% based on BLS ECEC data for “state and local government workers”/ “all occupations” in 2025Q2. The dollar cost of paid leave is excluded because it is included in annual wages.

Medicaid recipients

This is an estimate of how many additional people could receive Medicaid benefits in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

The number of people who could receive Medicaid benefits is based on Medicaid spending, by state, for all full-benefit enrollees, analyzed by the Kaiser Family Foundation based on data from the Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS). The data year is 2023, inflated to 2026–2028 dollars.

Veterans’ medical care

This is an estimate of how many additional military veterans could receive medical care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

The average cost to provide military veterans with VA medical care is based on a state’s total VA medical care expenditures divided by the state’s total number of unique patients using data from the National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics for fiscal year 2024, inflated to 2026–2028 dollars.

Head Start

This is an estimate of how many additional children could participate in a Head Start program in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

Head Start costs are calculated by dividing total federal Head Start funding in each state by the number of funded enrollments. The data are from the headstart.gov website for fiscal year 2024, inflated to 2026–2028 dollars.

Registered nurses

This is an estimate of how many additional registered nurses could be employed in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

Registered nurses’ annual mean wage by state in May 2025 (inflated to 2026–2028 dollars) is from BLS OEWS data. Benefits are estimated at 37.9% of pay based on BLS ECEC data for registered nurses in 2025Q2. The dollar cost of paid leave is excluded from benefits because it is included in annual wages.

SNAP benefits

This is an estimate of how many additional people could receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

The cost of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits is based on preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food and Nutrition Administration website for February 2026 (inflated to 2027 and 2028 dollars). The annual cost per recipient is derived by dividing total monthly benefits in each state by the number of participants in the state and multiplying by 12.

Paid parental leave

This is an estimate of how many parents could take 12 weeks of paid parental leave in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on average wages in the state and the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

The cost of paid parental leave is based on the average annual wage by state across all occupations from BLS OEWS data for May 2025 inflated to 2026–2028 dollars. The measure does not include self-employed workers. We assume the cost of parental leave is equivalent to 12 weeks of wages, not including benefits.

Public housing

This is an estimate of how many additional households could have access to low-cost public housing in a state, county, district, or “place” (city, town, or equivalent) over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration based on the area’s share of federal taxes being spent instead on the mass deportation of immigrants.

The annual cost of public housing units by state is based on the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) “Average HUD Expenditure Per Month” on public housing for 2025, multiplied by 12 and inflated to 2026–2028 dollars.

The Cost of Deportations Calculator was developed in partnership with

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Methodology + technical documentation.

Source: Economic Policy Institute Cost of Deportations Calculator, © August 2026.

At a time when families across the country are struggling to afford housing, health care, and education, the Trump administration and its allies in Congress have been cutting support for basic needs and diverting huge sums of money to deportations.

In Minnesota, $4.4 billion in federal taxpayer dollars is being spent on detaining immigrants—many of whom are in the country lawfully—and even some U.S. citizens. That means, on average, every household in the state is paying roughly $2,000 to track down, intimidate, detain, or deport people.

If that money were spent instead on programs proven to improve the lives of working families—education, health care, living wages—it could improve Minnesota communities dramatically. Here are a few different ways the money could be spent over the remaining 2.5 years of the Trump administration:

• Schools across the state are being forced to cut staff and increase class size. With the money being spent on mass deportations, the state could hire 14,000 more full-time school teachers. This would mean, for example:
  • 1,100 more teachers in Minneapolis
  • 340 more teachers in Minnetonka
  • 215 more teachers in Bloomington
  • 140 more teachers in Duluth
• With the cuts to the Affordable Care Act, over 140,000 people in Minnesota are projected to lose their health insurance. Due to cuts in Medicaid funding, hospitals are at risk of closing down in Austin, Staples, Mahnomen, Baudette, Little Falls, Hibbing, and Minneapolis. With the money being spent on deportations, we could keep 129,000 people on health insurance, which would also help keep hospitals open.
• Over 400,000 Minnesotans rely on food stamps, primarily working families with children and elderly people on fixed incomes. But because of cuts in the 2025 Republican tax and spending megabill (the OBBBA), 45,000 people across the state are at risk of being cut off. With the money being spent on deportations, Minnesota could protect food stamps for all hungry families in the state.
• Last year, over 600 Veterans Administration positions were cut in Minnesota. With the funds being diverted to deportations, we could reverse all these cuts and guarantee Minnesota veterans the care they deserve.
• Or, instead of restoring any of these services, every household in Minnesota could be given a $2,000 tax refund.

EPI and others have documented the economic harms of a draconian immigration policy and enforcement on immigrants and their families, as well as U.S.-born workers and the economy as a whole. Any of the alternatives listed above would be a better use of taxpayer dollars for improving the welfare of everyday Minnesotans. It is critical that we take into account the missed opportunities of funding a mass deportation regime, including the badly needed services being ignored or cut off to keep this policy funded and to keep immigrants living in fear.

In the last two years, Republicans in Tennessee have attempted to push legislation that would violate Plyler to set the stage to challenge the court decision (although neither proposal passed). Last year, the state proposed charging undocumented students tuition for public schools, and this year, Tennessee attempted to pass legislation to track the immigration status of all public school students.

The 1982 ruling of Plyler v. Doe is notable because it stated that the harm of not educating undocumented children would be worse for society than providing a basic education to all children in the U.S. The ruling recognized the huge positive spillovers public education has on the U.S. labor market, public health, and civil society and that leaving immigrant children out of public education would create an “underclass” in U.S. society.

Moreover, if the move to deny public education to children in the U.S. is successful, particularly in pockets of the country where immigrant children are a substantial share of the student population, it will lead to an extraordinarily high cost for the students who remain in public school.

Some school costs are hard to adjust, regardless of the number of students

Across the country, an estimated 17% of school-aged children live with at least one noncitizen adult, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. If these students were to leave suddenly, schools would be left to educate a fewer number of kids without any time to adjust their fixed costs. For example, when Alabama passed an immigration data collection law, more than 13% of Hispanic schoolchildren withdrew from classes.

At first, it would seem that reducing enrollment would reduce both total revenue and the number of students needing educational services proportionately, which should leave the schools’ ability to provide education unaffected. But schools can’t adjust every educational cost quickly: School bus routes still need to circulate to all stops, even if there is one fewer child in need of transit; buildings need to be heated and cooled, even if classroom size goes down; and guidance counselors and support staff are still required to support the remaining students.

School districts will pay more per pupil if student enrollment declines because of immigration enforcement

Since these fixed costs can’t be adjusted in the short run, when total revenue declines due to families’ fears of deportation, districts are stuck paying more per pupil on costs they can’t adjust. Effectively, native-born students who remain in public schools receive no additional benefit when immigrant students are denied services and rights. Districts instead will be paying more on costs that can’t be adjusted and getting less on the costs that can be adjusted for fewer students.

Calculating the cost under two different scenarios

We call all the costs of downward adjustment that occur when enrollment is reduced the fiscal externality. This means the per-pupil funds each district would require to maintain the same level of spending for remaining public school students due to a rapid decline in enrollment. This cost is entirely borne by state and local education budgets and leaves districts unable to deliver the same level of instruction to the remaining public-school pupils.

For districts with a large share of school-aged children in immigrant families, the costs of losing these students could be substantial. Table 1 shows the top-25 school districts, based on the number of K–12 students that are in immigrant families and the corresponding fiscal externality for two scenarios. In the first scenario, half of these students stop attending public school (referred to as the lower bound in the table). In the second scenario, all of these students stop attending public school (referred to as the upper bound in the table).

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The implications of a reversal of Plyler v. Doe or any type of policy restricting immigrant children’s access to public education would be extreme for these districts. In Houston, Texas, where 62% of students in the school district are Hispanic, we estimate that nearly 63,000 students may live in a household with immigrants and as such, might be vulnerable to dropping out of school due to anti-immigration efforts. The lower bound shows the costs if half of these students stopped showing up. Houston School District would have to reduce services by $1,654 for each remaining (and disproportionately native-born) public school student. This decline translates to a total fiscal externality of $268 million a year, or 11% of the total budget for the school district.

The extraordinarily high cost to native-born students of losing students in immigrant families due to anti-immigrant policies highlights the hypocrisy in the anti-immigrant movement. If all students in immigrant families stopped attending public school tomorrow, not only would those students suffer from the lack of public education, but the quality of public education would be much worse for the remaining students in those same schools. In short, no one wins. When the costs are tallied up, it’s clear that these policies are not about improving education quality for native-born students, but instead are malicious attacks on the institution of public education in the U.S.

University of Colorado Economics Professor Chloe N. East, Senior Economist and Deputy Director of Research at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Aaron Sojourner, and Executive Director at DC Fiscal Policy Institute Erica Williams discussed how the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign is harming workers, businesses, and the broader economy with case studies on Minneapolis and the greater Washington, D.C. region.

Webinar links, notes and discussion

Timestamped themes, discussion, and resources mentioned in the webinar

Chloe N. East presentation deck

Aaron Sojourner presentation deck

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Brian D. Pasternak,
Administrator, Office of Foreign Labor Certification
Employment and Training Administration
Department of Labor
Room N-5311
200 Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20210

RE: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Improving Wage Protections for the Temporary and Permanent Employment of Certain Foreign Nationals in the United States, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, DOL Docket No. ETA-2026-0001, RIN 1205-AC30 (March 27, 2026)

Dear Brian Pasternak:

The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank established in 1986 to include the needs of low- and middle-income workers in economic policy discussions. EPI conducts research and analysis on the economic status of working America, proposes public policies that protect and improve the economic conditions of low- and middle-income workers—regardless of immigration status—and assesses policies with respect to how well they further those goals. EPI submits these comments on the Department of Labor’s (DOL) Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) regarding the updated four-tiered wage structure for H-1B, H-1B1, and E-3 nonimmigrant workers and DOL permanent labor certifications for employment-based permanent immigrant visas (i.e. green cards) in the second and third employment-based preference categories (EB-2 and EB-3). EPI has researched, written, and commented extensively on the U.S. system for labor migration, including in particular, the H-1B program and other temporary work visa programs and green cards. EPI has published extensively on H-1B wage levels and employer usage and abuse of H-1B and other visa programs.{{1}}

EPI generally supports the main substance of the NPRM and believes it is an improvement as compared to the status quo for the current four-tiered wage structure for H-1B, and will also improve H-1B1 and E-3 nonimmigrant visas, and permanent labor certifications in EB-2 and EB-3, because the NPRM will make incremental progress towards ensuring that the wages of U.S. workers are safeguarded and that the Labor Condition Application (LCA) and PERM programs are not hijacked by employers as a loophole to underpay migrant workers according to U.S. wage standards. The proposal will also help disincentivize firms from using H-1B visas as a primary tool to outsource professional jobs and send them overseas.

However, as we will detail in this comment, we believe DOL should go beyond what the NPRM proposes by setting the wage floor—i.e. the Level I wage—at the 50^th percentile so that no H-1B, H-1B1, E-3, EB-2, or EB-3 jobs are ever certified at a wage that is below the local median wage for the occupation. If DOL implements such a rule in the final version of the regulation, the rule would address a major critique EPI has long held about the program, and which Members of Congress from both major parties have attempted to address through repeatedly proposed legislation that was first introduced nearly two decades ago.

It must also be noted at the outset of these comments that recent actions taken by DOL with respect to wages for migrant workers in temporary work visa programs have been inconsistent and confusing. While DOL is considering action proposed in this NPRM that will raise wage rates closer to true market rates for migrant workers in the H-1B, H-1B1, and E-3 visa programs, as well as those with labor certifications for EB-2 and EB-3 green cards, it is important to note that in October of 2025, DOL issued a new wage rule for the H-2A program that will cut wages dramatically for the migrant farmworkers in that program and unfairly charge them for lodging{{2}}—which, as EPI has estimated—will lead to a pay cut of roughly $2 billion for H-2A farmworkers and $3 billion for U.S. farmworkers per year.{{3}} DOL should issue regulations that lead to improved labor standards and fair wages for all work visa programs, and not treat workers differently based on their education levels, occupations, and nationalities. All temporary migrant workers deserve to be paid fairly for their work, and no work visa programs should operate as loopholes that allow employers to legally underpay migrant workers.

The NPRM is an improvement on the status quo but DOL should amend the proposal to better protect workers

In general, the NPRM improves upon the current wage structure but should be further enhanced to better protect workers and align the program with congressional intent and the goals of the H-1B statute. The principal change made by the NPRM is to update the four prevailing wage levels required in the H-1B, H-1B1, and E-3 visa programs—temporary work visa programs for college-educated migrant workers—setting levels at higher percentiles in the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) survey distribution of wages, in order to more adequately reflect market wage rates in the U.S. labor market. The NPRM also applies the new wage rates/percentiles to the permanent labor certification requirements for employment-based (EB) green cards in the EB-2 and EB-3 preference categories (sometimes referred to as the PERM process).{{4}}

The current and newly proposed wage level percentiles are as follows:

Table 1

As we have detailed in published research,{{5}} the two lowest wage levels in the current wage computation method are below the local median wage according to the occupation and local area based on DOL wage survey data in the OEWS, allowing employers to undercut U.S. wage standards. The NPRM sets the lowest wage level at the 34^th percentile, previously the Level II wage, thereby continuing to permit employers to pay H-1B workers at below-market wage rates—but not at the absurdly low levels allowed by the current Level I wage at the 17^th percentile.

DOL’s faulty prevailing wage computation has cost foreign-born workers at least $6.56 billion annually (see NPRM Exhibit 1). Even that is likely to be a serious underestimate for two reasons. First, it does not account for the losses suffered by U.S. workers and students who have had their wages, job opportunities, and career development suppressed and undermined as a result of the current wage methodology. Second, it does not estimate the costs incurred due to foreign-born workers’ weakened bargaining power vis-à-vis their employment through nonimmigrant visa programs. Employers exert much more control over visa workers than U.S. workers and permanent residents. Foreign-born workers on nonimmigrant visas have less opportunity to, and are far less likely to, switch jobs. Switching jobs, or the threat of switching jobs, is fundamental to any worker’s ability to demand higher wages and better working conditions. Professor George Borjas estimates that, in fiscal year (FY) 2024, visa holders had an annual separation rate of 9.4%, less than half of comparable U.S. workers.{{6}} Workers also face dire circumstances should they be terminated. They must find a new job within 60 days or else leave the United States. All these conditions place foreign-born workers in the H-1B, H-1B1, and E-3 visa programs in a much weaker position than similarly situated U.S. counterparts when bargaining for wages and working conditions. Simply put, foreign-born visa workers have fewer employment rights than U.S. citizens and permanent residents, and employers rationally take advantage of their relatively weak position when setting employment terms. Further, the agency has never enforced the Labor Condition Application’s (LCA) Working Conditions attestation, where employers promise to “not adversely affect the working conditions of workers similarly employed,” so employers disregard it.

In addition, the ability of H-1B workers to become lawful permanent residents and remain in the United States is entirely up to the whims of their employers. Even after working for an employer for six years in H-1B status, the employer has the power to decide if an H-1B worker can remain in the country—in many cases after an H-1B worker has established firm roots in the United States. That power keeps H-1B workers from complaining and asserting their employment rights. That leaves H-1B workers in a difficult position where they might decide, rationally, to abandon any demands for higher wages and better working conditions in exchange for the possibility of being sponsored for lawful permanent residence.

Prevailing wages must be raised sufficiently to compensate for this government-created labor market distortion, to protect both foreign-born workers with nonimmigrant visas and U.S. workers who already reside in the United States. 

DOL’s proposal to increase the wage-level percentiles is the best approach. It is straightforward and understandable to implement. The effects are easily modeled. Employers can respond to it predictably and effectively. It will improve the quality and skill mix of the pool of workers who are issued visas, pay those workers fairer salaries, and have fewer adverse impacts on the domestic workforce and labor supply. Recent results reported by United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), from the fiscal year (FY) 2027 H-1B lottery, the first to use the new wage-level weighting process, show that a large majority of H-1B registrations selected met at least the 34th percentile threshold, 82%, while also increasing the share of F-1 advanced degree graduates selected from 57% to 71.5%.{{7}} The latter demonstrates that concerns about this proposal shutting off the foreign student pipeline are overblown and misguided.

However, as noted above, the increases don’t go far enough. We believe that the Level I wage should be set no lower than the median (50th percentile) to effectively adjust for the non-compensated effects of limited job-switching, an absent or ineffective labor market test, weaker bargaining position, and non-enforcement of the actual wage requirement. Recent college graduates, especially those earning degrees in computer science and computer engineering, are facing the highest unemployment rates amongst all majors according to analysis by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and the worst job market in recent memory according to dozens of media accounts.{{8}}{{9}} Most analysts and executives predict that artificial intelligence (AI) will only make that labor market segment even worse. Major firms have laid off thousands of workers, citing AI the reason they need fewer workers. Many of those same firms employ thousands of H-1B workers. AI is predicted to reduce labor demand especially of recent graduates, the very U.S. workers competing for Level I jobs. The rules should ensure that workers assigned at Level I wages have truly special skills and will not undercut opportunities for recent university graduates.

Analysis of the NPRM: “Improving Wage Protections for the Temporary and Permanent Employment of Certain Foreign Nationals in the United States”

1. Raising wages for H-1B workers and permanent labor certifications will benefit migrant workers and protect wage standards for U.S. workers

For years, H-1B employers have been allowed to pay their H-1B workers at wage rates that do not reflect local market rates, by having an option to pay them at the two lowest permitted wage levels. Our 2020 report discusses the available data, the mechanics of the current rule, and why it is important to modify the H-1B wage levels to adequately reflect market wages and ensure that H-1B workers are paid fairly, and to preserve U.S. wage standards.{{10}} In the report, we recommend that DOL prohibit any H-1B job from being certified at a wage that is below the local median for the occupation and region. In that respect, by proposing to set the lowest wage level (Level I) at the 34^th percentile, DOL’s NPRM fails to do enough to protect wage standards in H-1B jobs. In the report we also recommend that DOL prohibit downward pressure on wages at the national level by requiring that every H-1B job be certified at a wage that is no lower than the national median wage for the occupation.

Many commentators on this NPRM, especially from the business community, including universities, are likely to claim that raising wages for migrant workers and safeguarding U.S. wage standards will harm the U.S. economy. When the misleading rhetoric is stripped away, the employers who oppose higher wage percentiles for H-1B, H-1B1, and E-3 visas, and EB-2 and EB-3 green cards, are simply claiming, in essence, that employers will only hire workers in the LCA and PERM programs if they are underpaid relative to similarly situated U.S. workers, and portray higher wages as an obstacle to migration or to the hiring of adequate talent that will prevent them from being successful and innovating.

Accepting this argument leads to a race to the bottom in terms of labor standards and excuses the co-optation of the immigration system in order to pad corporate profits. And such a line of argumentation is not supported by the available evidence. In fact, many advocates on all sides of the current H-1B debate now agree that the current H-1B wage rules are undercutting U.S. wage standards and should be updated. Even previous staunch defenders of the status quo, such as those representing or funded by the tech industry, as well as representatives of major employer associations, now admit that U.S. wages and U.S. workers are being undercut via the current prevailing wage rule.{{11}}

Adequate labor standards are never a barrier to migration or economic success—instead, they are a prerequisite to fair treatment for the migrant workers who are recruited by employers into the U.S. labor market and similarly situated U.S. workers.

Under the current rule, the wages of H-1B workers are being kept artificially low. The higher wage levels in DOL’s NPRM are more reasonable and closer to reflecting market wages in particular occupations and specific geographic regions. In other words, DOL’s proposal will push wage levels toward market wages, meaning it will increase labor market efficiency. It will also improve the quality and skill mix of the pool of foreign-born workers who are hired, increasing the productivity and innovation spillovers that skilled immigration promises.

2. DOL should raise the wage percentiles so that Level I is set no lower than the 50^th percentile of total wages surveyed in an occupation and region and prohibit any LCA or PERM approval for a wage that is lower than the national average for the occupation

The purpose of the H-1B and related programs is to “help employers who cannot otherwise obtain needed business skills and abilities from the U.S. workforce.”{{12}} Specialized skills should command high wages; such skills are typically a function of inherent capability, education level, and experience. It would be reasonable to expect that these workers should receive wages higher than the local median wage. One would therefore expect most H-1B positions to be assigned as Level IV (the only current wage level above the median), but as DOL and USCIS data show, H-1B employers as a whole assign only a very small minority of H-1B positions as Level IV, usually roughly 15% or less in recent fiscal years, while as DOL notes in the NPRM, 63% of H-1B positions were assigned at Levels I and II. For all LCA programs, DOL notes in the NPRM that in FY 2024, 16% of all LCA positions were certified at Level IV. At the USCIS petition level, Level IV wages are even less common: data disclosed by USCIS shows that in 2019 and 2020, only 4% of approved petitions for new employment under the regular cap were assigned at Level IV and only 2% of approved new H-1B petitions under the advanced degree exemption cap were assigned at Level IV.{{13}} We also know from more recent data from DHS that the five-year average of H-1B registrations at Level IV was just 5% over the FY 2020 to 2024 period.{{14}}

The data presented in our reports over the past decade and a half and more recently, the data reported by USCIS on the distribution of H-1B petitions by wage level, all point to the obvious fact that nearly all H-1B employers, but especially the largest employers, use the H-1B program either to hire relatively lower-wage workers (relative to the wages paid to other workers in their occupation) who possess ordinary skills or to hire skilled workers and pay them less than the true market value of their work. Either possibility raises important policy questions about the use and allocation of H-1B visas.

By setting two of the H-1B prevailing wage levels so low relative to the median and not requiring that firms pay at least market wages to H-1B workers, DOL has incentivized firms to earn extraordinary profits by legally hiring much-lower-paid H-1B workers instead of workers earning at least the local median wage. The fact that firms earn those profits through poorly crafted wage rules and by underpaying H-1B workers—instead of by offering a better or more innovative product or service—means DOL has, in effect, made wage arbitrage a feature of the H-1B program. And as the wage-level data we have reported on and cited here clearly shows, nearly all H-1B employers are exploiting these H-1B wage rules in order to pay below-median wages.{{15}} We believe the evidence is clear that these firms are not using the H-1B program sparingly to hire truly specialized workers, nor are they using it only when U.S. workers are unavailable. Given the business models and occupations, it is likely that the H-1B1 and E-3 programs are being abused similarly.

So how should DOL set a wage rule that guards against this and complies with the statutory requirement to prevent adverse effects on wages and working conditions?

The existing statutory language that sets out the H-1B prevailing wage requires four H-1B wage levels, but it does not prescribe specific percentiles, and no law requires DOL to set any of these prevailing wage levels below the local median wage. To ensure that H-1B workers possess specialized skills and are fairly paid, and to protect local wage standards and eliminate wage arbitrage as a feature of the H-1B program, DOL should issue a final rule that sets the lowest (Level I) wage for the LCA programs and EB-2 and EB-3 green cards at the 50th percentile for the occupation and local area, at least, and require that wage offers to workers in the LCA and EB-2 and EB-3 programs never be lower than the national median wage for the occupation, in order to prevent downward pressure on wages nationwide.

Requiring and enforcing above-median wages for H-1B and other LCA and PERM program workers would disincentivize the hiring of workers with nonimmigrant visas and green cards as a money-saving exercise, ensuring that companies will use the program as intended—i.e., to bring in workers who have special skills—instead of using them as a way to hire underpaid indentured workers for jobs that require at least a college degree.

3. DOL should set the updated wage percentiles at the 50^th, 62^nd, 75^th, and 90^th percentiles according to the total surveyed wages for the occupation and local area in the OEWS

As noted and discussed above, the lowest wage level, Level I, should be set no lower than at the 50^th percentile. Instead of the proposed four wage levels in the NPRM, DOL should set the lowest wage level, Level I, at the median wage (at the 50^th percentile), Level II at the 62^nd percentile, Level III at the 75^th percentile, and Level IV at the 90^th percentile—according to the overall distribution of OEWS wages for each occupation and region. (See table below.)

Table 2

These levels would ensure that no LCA or EB-2 or EB-3 positions are certified at a wage that is below the overall local median wage for an occupation, which in turn will prevent downward pressure on U.S. wage rates in such occupations. An additional benefit of using the 50^th, 62^nd, 75^th, and 90^th percentiles, as DOL points out, is “that they are close to dividing the upper half of the distribution equally.”{{16}}

4. DOL’s experience benchmarking proposal is inferior to the NPRM’s core proposal on wage levels and should not be implemented

The NPRM requests comments on ‘experience benchmarking’ as an alternative computational method to the core proposal of Level I at the 34^th percentile, Level II at the 52^nd, Level III at the 70^th, and Level IV at the 88^th percentile, based on the overall OEWS wages by occupation and region. We believe that this experience benchmarking alternative is significantly inferior to the core proposal and urge DOL to reject it for four main reasons. First, the methodological description is insufficient to evaluate, with just two pages of text. This is especially troublesome since it is an entirely novel method of setting prevailing wages that has never been rigorously tested or examined. It will impact literally millions of workers and hundreds of thousands of employers. To our knowledge, Mincer equations have never been used to this large an extent for setting wages in any government program. Second, the data necessary to calculate prevailing wages do not exist; they must be synthesized through estimation procedures after marrying two distinct surveys that were never designed for these purposes. Are the sample sizes sufficient? There’s no exploration of these potential flaws in the NPRM. Third, the method biases against women. The method does not directly measure experience; instead, it estimates experience by the age of the candidate. Women are more likely than men to have gaps in their labor force participation. The agency does not provide a method for adjusting the calculations based on gender. Fourth, this method would surely fuel age discrimination by allowing firms to legally pay younger H-1B workers less than U.S. workers doing the same job. Professor Norman Matloff, one of the leading scholars of the H-1B program, has repeatedly expressed concerns that firms prefer to hire H-1B workers because they are younger, and therefore lower-paid, than equivalent Americans.{{17}} The government would be endorsing such behavior by adopting experience benchmarking.

More broadly, adopting benchmarking to set prevailing wages rests on the assumption that labor markets are highly segregated by age and educational attainment. Is it true that a 28-year-old does not compete with a 35-year-old? Is it true that someone with a master’s degree does not compete with someone with a bachelor’s degree? The DOL provides no evidence to test this hypothesis with a single occupation or example, let alone whether it would hold across the roughly 400 occupations eligible for visa programs covered by this NPRM.

The example provided in the NPRM, of an accountant working in Dayton, Ohio, illustrates the difficulty for anyone to assess the accuracy of the procedure.

If ACS data and Mincer wage equation estimated that U.S. accountants with 10 years of experience and a master’s degree typically earn 20 percent more than the median accountant nationwide, the Experienced Benchmarked ratio for that education-experience combination in accounting would be expressed as a wage premia factor of 1.2. Then, to compute the Level I prevailing wage for an employer seeking visa labor certification to employ an alien worker as an accountant in Dayton, Ohio, with 10 years of experience and a master’s degree, the Department would take the OEWS 50th percentile for accountants in the Dayton MSA (currently $78,710) and multiply it by 1.2, yielding an experience-benchmarked Level I prevailing wage of $94,452. The Level II prevailing wage would apply the same 1.2 ratio to the OEWS 62nd percentile; Level III to the 75th percentile; and Level IV to the 90th percentile.{{18}}

This hypothetical example presents several shortcomings.

First, we encounter problems with identifying the data. The NPRM reports the OEWS 50^th percentile wage in Dayton MSA of $78,710. We are unable to validate this wage using the OFLC Wage Search page.{{19}} The OEWS 50^th percentile wage (current Level III) for the occupation is shown below, with the results listed for three different years of data available in the database:

Occupations: SOC 13-2011.00 – Accountants and Auditors
Location: Dayton OH BLS Areas Montgomery County
Series: All Industries

7/2023-6/2024 Level III Wage: $77,251.00
7/2024-6/2025 Level III Wage: $82,576.00
7/2025-6/2026 Level III Wage: $86,403.00

Further, based on the absence of data and sparse description of the methodology, there’s no way for us, or anyone else, to test or examine the method used to calculate the wage premia/discount using the Mincer equations. The “hypothetical” example claims a premia of 20%, but it is unclear whether this result comes from real calculation or if it’s a fabrication created to illustrate a point. If it is the latter, that raises serious questions about the agency’s ability to implement experience benchmarking across hundreds of occupations, thousands of locations, four skill levels, and a half-dozen educational levels.

More importantly, is the example, and its wage outcomes, representative of the universe of covered workers and the U.S. workers they compete with? The evidence shows that this hypothetical example is neither typical of H-1B workers nor their U.S. counterparts. The description of experience benchmarking does not investigate its implications, but such testing is fundamental to validating the method across occupations, locations, and skill levels. The hypothetical worker has 10 years of experience, which, if they had no gaps in labor force participation, would put them at 34 years old. A 34-year-old worker is older than most new H-1B workers approved for initial employment, ranking near the 68^th percentile by age.{{20}} We also know that this worker is not typical of U.S. accountants. Most practicing accountants hold no more than a bachelor’s degree, 59%, and are older—with a median age of 45—than this candidate.{{21}} The example raises many more questions than it answers.

The median age of all H-1B workers approved for initial employment is approximately 31, whereas the median age of an American worker in an H-1B eligible occupation is approximately 40, even in STEM occupations.{{22}} H-1B workers are generally significantly younger than the typical U.S. worker with whom they compete. Experience benchmarking would favor H-1B workers by offering them a significant wage discount, based on the Mincer method, over the U.S. workers with whom they compete. The upshot is that experience benchmarking would surely fuel age discrimination in these labor markets.

It is likely that experience benchmarking would yield substantial wage discounts (premia ratios <1.0) for H-1B workers, compared with the NPRM’s core approach. But we simply do not know because DOL has not compared the wage outcomes between experience benchmarking and raising the wage level percentiles. DOL has not published experience benchmarking wage tables for every occupation, geography, skill level, experience, and education.

One think tank, the Institute for Progress (IFP), a supporter of the experience benchmarking alternative, attempted to simulate the method using FY 2024 approved petitions and found that experience benchmarking wages for most H-1B workers are substantially lower than the NPRM’s core proposal. Contrary to IFP, we believe experience benchmarking should be rejected, in part for that reason. See its report, specifically the scatterplot chart “Blind Benchmarking misses underpaid H-1B workers” on page 20, where the number of red dots (i.e., experience benchmarking yields a lower prevailing wage than NPRM core proposal) far outnumbers the green dots (i.e., experience benchmarking yields a higher prevailing wage than NPRM core proposal).{{23}} Even these analysts admit they don’t know whether their calculations are consistent with DOL’s sparse description of experience benchmarking. If this think tank’s analysis is roughly correct or on the right track, then experience benchmarking will yield much lower prevailing wages than the core NPRM proposal. If this is true, then the experience benchmarking method undermines the goals of this rulemaking.

In its justification for considering experience benchmarking, the NPRM states that “the methodology employed under the current rule may allow positions to be classified at wage levels that are less comparable to the actual education and experience of the alien worker.” Experience benchmarking, on the other hand, would “address this limitation by comparing the sponsored alien worker’s wage to the wages earned by U.S. workers with comparable education and experience…”{{24}}

But elsewhere, the NPRM undermines the case for experience benchmarking by noting that educational attainment is often a poor determinant of wages:

an examination of the top end of the wage distribution within the H–1B program shows that, for H–1B nonimmigrants with graduate and bachelor’s degrees, the association between education and income level begins to break down to some extent. An analysis of the highest earners within the H–1B program reveals that H–1B workers—particularly those with bachelor’s and graduate degrees—can be among the most skilled and capable in their fields. Interestingly, at this top end of the wage distribution, the typical link between education level and income begins to weaken. Among the most highly compensated H–1B workers, the higher the income level, the more likely the alien worker only has a bachelor’s degree.{{25}} (Emphasis added.)

While skill-level misclassification is a major problem, experience benchmarking is the wrong solution because it creates new, unnecessary loopholes. Instead, as we describe below, we recommend that you require employers document their Prevailing Wage Determination (PWD) aligned with the National Prevailing Wage Center (NPWC) guidance and provide it for inspection.

The NPRM’s core proposal—the 34^th, 52^nd, 70^th, and 88^th percentiles based on the overall OEWS wages by occupation and region—coupled with skill classification oversight and accountability, better achieves the program goals than the experience benchmarking proposal discussed in the NPRM.

5. DOL should calculate an additional amount of compensation based on available data on the cost of benefits for workers in private industry and add a reasonable amount to the required prevailing wage

While we believe utilizing the OEWS data set and wage percentiles within the distribution is reasonable and preferable to other data sources and methods, the OEWS falls very short in terms of providing a holistic and realistic picture of what U.S. workers earn in H-1B occupations, as well as those in other LCA programs and PERM programs, by virtue of not including fringe benefits. We urge that DOL also calculate an additional amount of compensation based on available data on the cost of benefits for workers in private industry. If employers do not have to provide fringe benefits to the college-educated migrant workers they recruit or reasonable compensation that accounts for those fringe benefits, that will result in employers underpaying or undercompensating workers with visas vis-à-vis their U.S. worker counterparts, thereby causing adverse effects on workers in occupations covered by H-1B and the other LCA programs. The fissuring of the U.S. workforce has been abetted in part by employers practicing benefits’ arbitrage—in other words, employers seeking a workforce they do not need to provide benefits for—the H-1B, H-1B1, E-3, EB-2, and EB-3 program should not facilitate it.

Davis Bacon and Service Contract Act wage determinations—which are both valid wage sources for determining H-1B wage rates under current H-1B rules—include an additional hourly monetary value that is owed to the worker in “fringe benefits.” Under both Acts, the employer must pay the fringe benefits either in the form of a permissible fringe benefit listed by the applicable Act, or any combination of benefits thereof, or with an equivalent cash payment.{{26}} The lack of any fringe benefits in OEWS prevailing wage determinations{{27}} constitutes a severe deficiency in the OEWS wage data that conflicts with and undermines the statutory requirement that the H-1B prevailing wage will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of similarly employed U.S. workers. 

Reliance on the OEWS to determine prevailing wages—without an adjustment for fringe benefits—is not an adequate method to set prevailing wages for LCA and PERM programs. If the prevailing wages and benefits for a particular occupation in a particular Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) are, for example, $30 per hour plus $10 per hour in leave, pension, and health benefit costs, but DOL determines the prevailing wage to be simply $30, U.S. workers will be adversely impacted. Employers will be encouraged to hire H-1B workers instead of U.S. workers, saving themselves $10 in benefit costs per hour and putting downward pressure on the locally prevailing compensation. Hiring H-1B workers at $30 an hour for example, with no benefits, would allow employers to underprice labor by 30%—which is the average benefit share of total compensation costs for private industry workers{{28}}—and it could encourage employers to replace U.S. workers with H-1B workers, or hire H-1B workers instead of U.S. workers, since employers are not required to recruit and hire U.S. workers before hiring H-1B workers. H-1B workers and those employed through other LCA programs cannot be expected to complain about this or have the bargaining power to negotiate adequate fringe benefits, because their employers control and have near-total power over their immigration status, and some workers will be also willing to accept the lower compensation, because it will likely be far more than they could earn in their country of origin.

BLS already collects the necessary data to determine the appropriate amount of fringe benefits that should be required as a supplement to the OEWS wages used to set a prevailing wage. The Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) “provides the average employer cost for wages and salaries as well as benefits per employee hour worked” for workers in the civilian economy.{{29}} The ECEC reports the total average wages and benefits paid by employers and lists these data as they correspond to broad occupational employment categories. These data are also differentiated according to the average amount paid for the major categories of fringe benefits: paid leave, supplemental pay, insurance, retirement and savings and legally required benefits. The ECEC also reports the average total compensation, wages and salaries, and total costs of fringe benefits paid by employers, broken down by geographic region, census division, and locality.{{30}}

Using the aforementioned data sets from the ECEC, DOL can determine the appropriate level of fringe benefits that must be offered and paid to LCA and PERM program workers. The ECEC provides data on health and retirement benefits, and wages and wage-related pay such as paid leave and supplemental pay. The wages reflected in the OEWS survey capture the wages and wage-related parts of total compensation. Employers paying wages will already be paying the ‘legally required’ payroll taxes. Therefore, the compensation missing from the OEWS wage rates is the cost of retirement and health benefits, which are about 11% of private sector compensation. The amount of pay reflecting these benefits that employers of LCA and PERM program workers should pay can easily be determined by taking the ratio of the sum of health and retirement benefits to the wages paid (the sum of wages, paid leave and supplemental pay). This can be determined for a broad occupational grouping and perhaps done at a regional level as well. This ratio when multiplied by the OEWS wage shows the amount of benefits that would be comparable to that earned in the private sector or civilian sector.

Although the occupational groups and geographic areas listed and reported in the ECEC are not as numerous and detailed as those in the OEWS’s occupational categories and geographical areas, this should not deter the DOL from utilizing these data to calculate the percentage of wages that should be added on as fringe benefits to the OEWS wage. Only a percentage to be added on must be determined – not an exact dollar amount. 

Thus, the ECEC data are sufficient to provide DOL–by region and broad occupational group–an average level of insurance and retirement benefits received by employees in that job and in that area. Following precedent from the DBA and SCA, the fringe benefits could be paid by the employer through any combination of a variety of options, such as paid leave, health and life insurance, retirement and savings accounts, etc., or the employer could simply pay the benefits in cash.

Unfortunately, there is very little transparency regarding whether employers using the H-1B, H-1B1, E-3, and EB-2 and EB-3 programs are offering fringe benefits, or to what extent. A requirement that these fringe benefits be offered to LCA and PERM program workers would ensure that the wages and working conditions of similarly employed workers are not adversely impacted. 

The current DOL compliance guidance on benefits for H-1B workers encourages benefits arbitrage through outsourcing and fissuring. The Wage and Hour Division fact sheet on the subject (#62L) reads, “The employer must offer benefits to H-1B workers on the same basis, and in accordance with the same criteria, as the benefits the employer provides to similarly employed U.S. workers.”{{31}} By defining similarly employed workers as restricted only to those directly employed by the H-1B employer, DOL is encouraging benefits arbitrage by outsourcing firms, which can offer substandard benefits to all its employees and still comply with this interpretation of the H-1B rules.

6. DOL should prohibit employer-provided private wage surveys from being used as alternative sources of wage data to set prevailing wages

Under the main H-1B prevailing wage regulation language at 20 C.F.R. §655.731, an employer has a number of options at their disposal to determine a prevailing wage for an LCA. In other words, the OEWS wage levels are just one of the available options. The employer may use one of the following sources to establish a prevailing wage: the OEWS wage, the wage set in an applicable Collective Bargaining Agreement, an applicable wage set by the Davis-Bacon Act or McNamara-O’Hara Service Contract Act, an Office of Foreign Labor Certification National Processing Center prevailing wage determination, or a wage set by an independent authoritative source or another legitimate source of wage data. However, if the employer is paying a higher wage to similarly situated U.S. workers that it already employs, then it must pay the H-1B worker same higher “actual wage,” that it is paying the U.S. worker. (Specifically defined as “the wage rate paid by the employer to all other individuals with similar experience and qualifications for the specific employment in question.”)

Therefore, employers do not need to use the OFLC’s calculated levels from OEWS data to determine a prevailing wage for an LCA or permanent labor certification application. The NPRM would improve the longstanding problems in how the prevailing wage is determined when using the OFLC-generated OEWS wage rates, but in the NPRM, DOL states that it considered whether to prohibit—but ultimately decided to permit—the continued use of an independent authoritative source or another legitimate source of wage data, which includes private wage surveys provided by employers and accepted by DOL. Standards for such alternative sources of wage data are described in 20 CFR § 655.731. In our 2020 report, we showed in Table 1 that in 2019, at least 9% of all certified wages for H-1B positions on LCAs were set by a private wage survey or other source accepted by the OFLC as legitimate.{{32}}

We strongly urge DOL to eliminate the use of private wage surveys provided by employers for setting wage rates in the LCA programs or for EB-2 and EB-3 green cards. While the share of LCAs approved with wages set by private wages surveys is relatively small at the moment, it is likely that the use, and abuse, of private wage surveys will expand substantially after publication of a final rule that is consistent with the wage level percentiles proposed in the NPRM. This will occur because employers will be motivated to use private surveys as a loophole to avoid paying the new higher wage percentiles.

DOL’s justification for continuing to allow private wage surveys is based on an analysis that is confusing. On the one hand, the agency claims that private surveys yield a wage 20% higher on average than the OEWS equivalent, but also says that wage surveys are necessary for niche or very specialized markets where, “occupations [are] not well represented in OEWS datasets.”{{33}} The two claims are in contradiction. If a private wage survey is used to establish a wage in a niche job market, presumably not covered by the OEWS, then how can DOL feasibly calculate the differences? Footnote 211 in the NPRM does not provide sufficient detail to test this claim.

If DOL does not immediately eliminate the use of private surveys, it should at least ensure that usage of such surveys are rare and approved in only exceptional cases. Employers should be required to provide extensive documentation and justification for why the OEWS is an inadequate data source for determining the prevailing wage.

The recent history of the use of private wage surveys to set wages in the H-2B visa program—a temporary work visa program for lower-wage jobs outside of agriculture including in landscaping, forestry, hospitality, and construction—is instructive and should inform DOL’s review of wage surveys and other sources of wage data for setting H-1B wages. The evidence is clear in the H-2B context that when employers use private wages surveys, they primarily use them to pay lower wages than would otherwise be required.

In 2013 when DOL raised the minimum H-2B prevailing wage from the 17^th wage percentile to the mean wage for the occupation and local area, H-2B employers immediately and en masse, shifted their business model to use private wage surveys to set H-2B wage rates at below-average wage rates. Evidence revealed in federal litigation clearly suggests that the shift to the use of private wage surveys was a systematic response to higher wage rates, and one that was clearly successful. Specifically, in the nine months beginning soon after the H-2B wage rule was updated—between July 1, 2013, and March 31, 2014—employers increased their submissions of private wage surveys for H-2B prevailing wage determinations by 3,182%, as compared with the 12 months leading up to the federal court decision that invalidated the previous H-2B wage rule. In 21.1% of those prevailing wage determinations set by private wage surveys, the certified H-2B wage was lower than the previous prevailing wage system where the Level I H-2B prevailing wage was set at the 17th percentile wage by occupation and local area, according to OFLC-generated OEWS wage survey data, and 94.4% of the determinations were for a wage that was lower than the Level II wage, at the 34th percentile.{{34}} Despite the fact that the H-2B prevailing wage has been set at the local average wage and DOL restricted the use of private wage surveys in 2015, they are still commonly used and successful at lowering wages for H-2B workers. One clear example of this which has been detailed, is a group of H-2B workers employed as crabpickers in Maryland—they earned roughly 25% less per hour than they should have been paid according to the local corresponding OEWS wage.{{35}}

The downside risk of continuing to allow private wage surveys—creating loopholes and administrative burdens—outweighs the risk to workers that the OEWS prevailing wage results in lower wages. If DOL’s calculations are accurate, employers should welcome the elimination of private wage surveys because the OEWS provides lower wage requirements and reduced costs in terms of purchasing survey data and/or conducting entirely new surveys.

7. If DOL considers permitting the use of employer provided private wage surveys, it should first conduct a detailed analysis of their usage and impact on H-1B wage rates, make the findings public, and issue a separate NPRM focused solely on private wage surveys

In order to promote transparency and comport with the statutory requirement that H-1B employers “will provide working conditions for [H-1B workers] that will not adversely affect the working conditions of workers similarly employed,”{{36}} DOL should immediately prohibit the use of private wages surveys. However if DOL wishes to still consider their usage, DOL should conduct a study to benchmark the use of alternative wage data and especially private wage surveys against the OFLC-generated OEWS prevailing wages, to identify whether there are any systematic biases in such sources. If such biases are found, DOL could propose a new NPRM with additional guidance and safeguards to ensure that the alternative wage sources are not undermining U.S. wage standards. DOL should also conduct an analysis on the occupations that have been approved for wage setting with private wages surveys, to examine which occupations employers are claiming to be so unique that they do not fit within the definitions of over 800 occupations available in BLS’s Standard Occupational Codes, as well as analyze whether private wage surveys have negatively impacted conditions for H-1B workers and similarly situated workers.

It is important to note that, while in the aggregate, the use of private wage surveys is roughly 6.5% according to the NPRM, we know from our own reviews of LCA disclosure data that some firms rely on private wage surveys extensively. DOL should examine how private wage surveys vary across firms, industries, and occupations. Firms that rely on private wage surveys for more than 3% of the positions in their LCAs should be scrutinized and audited to ensure they are not being utilized to undercut the standards set by OEWS wage data. 

8. DOL must put measures in place that would prevent employer misclassification of H-1B workers at the wrong wage levels

As noted earlier, the NPRM requires that minimum H-1B, H-1B1, E-3, EB-2, and EB-3 salaries are set at more realistic wage rates that reflect the local market rates for the jobs they fill. While each wage level is intended to correspond to the position description, in practice the employer has substantial discretion choosing the skill level and DOL does not verify that a prevailing wage is appropriate unless a lawsuit or a complaint is filed by a worker. Such complaints are unlikely since it would require a migrant worker to blow the whistle on their own employer, the same employer that controls the worker’s visa status and ability to remain in the United States. We are unaware of any cases in which DOL has investigated an LCA-stage misclassification of an H-1B wage level, but there have been reports of, for example, H-1B employers receiving approval for LCAs that certify they will pay employees at the same prevailing wage level despite having job titles that clearly warrant different wage levels.

Simply put, employer selection of skill levels should be anchored to the actual duties of the position and verified by DOL and USCIS. There is no reason to allow employers to identify a skill level on a whim. If DOL does not fix this obvious problem, then the NPRM’s core objective of eliminating wage arbitrage will be undermined.

Skill level misclassification and inconsistencies undermine good governance of the H-1B program. Even a cursory examination of the LCA and I-129 data shows that such misclassifications, whether purposeful or inadvertent, are common. For example, positions with job titles leading with ‘senior’ are frequently misclassified as Level I. And even within the same employer, identical job titles are classified under different skill levels.

Yet the effectiveness of this NPRM hinges on ensuring that employers properly and consistently classify their positions at the correct skill level. DOL should take two actions. First, it should update and expand the NPWC’s Prevailing Wage Determination Policy Guidance.{{37}} Second, it must hold employers accountable for their skill level selections.

The policy guidance should be rewritten and expanded so that it not only serves PWD adjudicators but also all employers, whether they use the OEWS or a private wage survey to determine the prevailing wage. The document should clarify skill level classification and serve as compliance guidance for all employers. The most recent NPWC policy guidance, published in 2009, is obviously inadequate and outdated. Employers are not effectively or consistently interpreting and identifying skill levels. The description of each skill level, Levels I through IV, consists of a single paragraph of ambiguous language. For example, how many years of experience should Level II consist of? Can an employer’s position that requires two to three years of experience ever be classified as Level I (Entry-Level)? If a worker with a master’s degree is filling a position that typically requires only a bachelor’s degree, can they be bumped up in skill level?

All employers should be required to follow the five-step Prevailing Wage Determination process outlined on pages 9 through 13 to identify the position’s skill level. Employers should be required to document and retain those records for inspection by USCIS when the I-129 petition for the LCA is filed. This will ensure consistent skill level identification within and across companies whether the firm uses the OEWS, private wage survey, a CBA, or requests a PWD.

Then USCIS should ensure that the worker being placed in the position is not overqualified in terms of education and experience for the position’s skill level.

Consider this example: A well-known firm received approval for two different LCAs at the same wage level (Level II), even though one LCA had the job title Senior Software Engineer and the other had the job title Software Engineer.{{38}} The firm, a major employer of H-1B workers, is not accounting for differences in skill levels as evident from its own job titles when selecting the wage level for the LCA. Both engineers and senior engineers are receiving the exact same salary and wage level, and they are approved by DOL with zero scrutiny. Using the DOL Prevailing Wage Determination Policy Guidance, the LCAs in this case should be instantly flagged by identifying keywords such as senior, head, chief, and lead in job titles, and should be checked to determine whether the prevailing wage levels are appropriate. This example underscores a broader need for DOL to create a more robust compliance system to ensure employers do not misclassify workers at inappropriate wage levels. Our own cursory review has found hundreds of similar examples.

As a result, the LCA and petition process should be updated so that DOL reviews the qualifications of individual workers before USCIS approves a petition, to ensure that wage levels match up with the age, education, and experience of the workers being hired through the LCA and PERM programs. While USCIS currently performs this role to some extent, its adjudicators lack expertise in wage-and-hour issues and do not have the same mandate to protect labor standards as DOL staff. Therefore, these functions should be undertaken by the proper agency. DOL and USCIS already have a mandate to cooperate on H-1B applications and enforcement; a memorandum of understanding between the Secretaries of Homeland Security and Labor could detail a process where DOL plays a prominent role in ensuring that H-1B workers are classified at the appropriate wage levels. Published guidance from DOL on skill levels that is more detailed, clearer, and more realistic would also be helpful for everyone involved—employers and adjudicators alike.

9. DOL has failed to enforce the “actual wage” component of the H-1B prevailing wage rule and should begin enforcing it immediately

Under the prevailing wage statute, although an employer has several options at their disposal to determine a prevailing wage for an LCA, they must offer the higher of either the prevailing wage or the “actual wage,” which the corresponding regulation at 20 C.F.R. §655.731 defines as “the wage rate paid by the employer to all other individuals with similar experience and qualifications for the specific employment in question.”

DOL has not exercised its authority to enforce the actual wage requirement. This is a wasted opportunity for one of the most important tools DOL has at its disposal to hold employers accountable for required wages. In order to ensure that H-1B employers are not undercutting the wage rates they pay H-1B workers, DOL should immediately begin enforcing this requirement.

In late 2021, we published a report detailing how thousands of skilled migrants with H-1B visas working as subcontractors at well-known corporations like Disney, FedEx, Google, and others appear to have been underpaid by one firm to the tune of at least $95 million in one single year.{{39}} The victims likely included not only the H-1B workers but also the U.S. workers who were either displaced or whose wages and working conditions were degraded when employers were allowed to underpay skilled migrant workers with impunity. The workers in question were employed by HCL Technologies, an India-based IT staffing firm that earned $11 billion in revenue in 2020. HCL is consistently one of the top 20 H-1B employers and appears to have engaged in the systematic and strategic wage theft of its H-1B workers by exploiting the lax to nonexistent enforcement of the actual wage requirement. According to its own internal documents, HCL targeted its new H-1B hires expressly based on the spread between what it paid its own U.S. employees versus what it pays its own H-1B workers.

The report discusses our analysis of an internal HCL document, released as part of a whistleblower lawsuit against the firm. The document suggests that HCL—and perhaps other firms with similar business models—are not paying the legally required amount that corresponds to what is being paid to U.S. worker employees at HCL. The HCL document revealed that the large-scale illegal underpayment of H-1B workers that appears to be occurring is a core part of the HCL’s competitive strategy, and likely facilitated $95 million in stolen wages from HCL’s H-1B employees in just one year. Such abuses are surely widespread among H-1B employers because DOL has done virtually nothing to ensure program integrity by enforcing the H-1B wage rules, in particular the actual wage rule.

DOL could easily begin enforcing the actual wage provision by requiring H-1B employers to submit evidence documenting the wage rates paid to U.S. workers who are similarly employed in occupations for which the employer is also hiring H-1B workers. Employers must already “keep records for how they calculate the actual wages.” To our knowledge, DOL has never initiated an investigation regarding compliance with the “actual wage” provision of the law. The DOL Secretary should exercise their authority to inspect the actual wages paid by H-1B employers. The Secretary can do so without a complaint from a worker, under their authority to certify investigations, and should do so if presented with credible evidence of violations. DOL should provide clear compliance guidance for the actual wage provision and then require that H-1B employers attest to the wage rates they pay similarly situated U.S. workers and include them in the LCA documentation, and DOL should conduct audits of employers on a regular basis to ensure compliance. The audits could begin with the employers that hire large numbers of H-1B workers, for example, those that employ more than 25 H-1B workers, as well as H-1B dependent firms.

Secondary employers should also be required to submit LCAs and evidence documenting the wage rates paid to U.S. workers in the occupations that H-1B workers will be hired for through an outsourcing firm. Otherwise, some H-1B outsourcing firms—which almost exclusively pay H-1B workers at the two lowest wage levels, and employ H-1B and L-1 workers almost exclusively—will be able to game the system by using the actual wage paid to their own employees to meet the requirement, and not the employees of the secondary employer, where the H-1B workers will be placed—and where wages paid to the U.S. workforce are likely to be higher.

10. DOL should require secondary employers of H-1B workers to attest that they will not adversely affect wages and working conditions

Outsourcing companies are using the H-1B program to underpay H-1B workers, replace U.S. workers, and send tech jobs abroad. Typically, in this scenario, H-1B workers do computer and engineering work at the office of a U.S. employer but are employed by an outsourcing company, some of which are based abroad or have major operations abroad.{{40}} The many reported cases of U.S. workers being laid off and replaced by H-1B workers have all been facilitated by this arrangement. In multiple incidents, the H-1B workers have been hired with annual wages of around $30,000 to $40,000 less than the workers they have replaced. Before they are laid off, the U.S. workers are often forced to train their own H-1B replacements as a condition of their severance packages; this is euphemistically known as “knowledge transfer.” Major, profitable U.S. employers like Disney and Toys “R” Us—as well as public employers and institutions like the University of California and Southern California Edison—have laid off thousands of U.S. workers who were forced to train their own replacements. Eventually, many of the outsourced jobs filled by H-1B workers get moved offshore.{{41}}

Contrary to the popular narrative proffered by corporations that support expanding and deregulating the H-1B visa program—the staffing firms that use H-1B visas are not using them to keep technology jobs in the United States—instead they are using them precisely to facilitate the offshoring of as many of those jobs as they can. That is in fact, the business model of those firms. News reports, including from the New York Times and Bloomberg, have shown that outsourcing companies “game the system” in order to obtain a high share of H-1B visas, which leaves fewer available for the firms that directly employ H-1B workers.{{42}}

The outsourcing/staffing model of employment generally may increase the incidence of labor and employment law violations by separating the main beneficiary of the labor provided by H-1B workers—the third-party firm that hires the outsourcing firm, i.e. the “lead” employer—from the H-1B workers who perform the work. Firms that rely on outsourced H-1B workers are a textbook example of what former DOL Wage and Hour administrator David Weil calls a “fissured” workplace, where the relationship between the worker and the lead employer is fissured, or broken, via the use of a temp agency or subcontractor{{43}} (in this case the temp agency or subcontractors are the H-1B outsourcing firms). Research shows that fissuring leads to a wage penalty for workers who are subcontracted, employed as temps, and work for staffing firms,{{44}} in part because the subcontractor keeps a percentage of the wages earned by the workers. It is also common knowledge that employers use this model to avoid paying for benefits like health care, retirement funds, and to avoid liability for labor violations. Because the staffing and outsourcing model contributes to the fissuring of the labor market, it should not be allowed as part of the U.S. immigration system—not in H-1B or in any other temporary or permanent immigration programs.

One way to address the abuses of the outsourcing/staffing firms, which operate as secondary employers, would be to issue policy guidance and update the appropriate DOL ETA application forms so that secondary employers to which H-1B workers are outsourced will be required to file Labor Condition Applications with DOL. Such guidance, which was considered in 2021 but then abandoned,{{45}} would close the loophole that allows firms like Disney and Southern California Edison to replace its U.S. employees with H-1B workers by employing them through an outsourcing firm.{{46}} Using Disney as an example, implementing this rule would require client firms like Disney—that benefit and profit from hiring outsourcers—to acknowledge their employment relationship with H-1B workers who are employed by outsourcers like Infosys and Tata, by requiring Disney to file its own LCA. By doing so, Disney would attest that hiring the H-1B worker through the outsourcer is not adversely affecting the wages and working conditions of the Disney workforce.

11. DOL should publish Labor Condition Application and permanent labor certification data in real-time on a central database

DOL publishes detailed LCA and permanent labor certification (PERM) disclosure data, but it is typically lagged by at least one quarter, and often much longer. The agency should publish LCA and PERM public access file applications in real-time to enable U.S. workers to apply for these positions. This would enhance the integrity of the programs and better align them to their purposes by ensuring that workers hired with temporary visas and green cards are filling true labor shortages.

U.S. workers have long complained loudly that employers hide job openings from them, reserving them for visa holders and PERM applicants. Even when those jobs are advertised, as is required by the PERM labor certification process, they are often placed in obscure locations. Workers call such job advertisements “fake job postings.” A recent ProPublica investigation has referred to the practice as “The Tech Recruitment Ruse.”{{47}}

The agency already collects the data and publishes it regularly on the OFLC disclosure data. But even a one-quarter year lag time renders it useless for job seekers. Publishing it in real-time would unlock enormous value for workers at little or no cost to the government or employers.

12. DOL had the requisite legal authority to update the H-1B prevailing wage levels

As discussed in detail in our 2020 report, DOL has the requisite legal authority to change the H-1B prevailing wage levels to an appropriate rate that protects wage standards and prevents adverse effects on U.S. workers in H-1B occupations. No analyst or commentator has credibly argued otherwise. For far too long, the H-1B wage levels have been set at an artificially low level that undercuts U.S. wage standards, therefore, it is reasonable for DOL to increase the minimum wage levels so that Level I is no lower than the local median wage.

13. DOL should expand the LCA process to include a front-end screening process that reviews the labor and employment law records of employers; those that have violated certain laws in the previous five years should be prohibited from hiring through the H-1B program

In a previous comment to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), regarding the 2023 H-1B “modernization” rule,{{48}} we recommended that DHS should expand the H-1B Registration System to include a front-end screening process that reviews the labor and employment law records of employers. If employers have violated certain laws, they should be prohibited from hiring through the H-1B program. We further recommended that DHS should consult with DOL to develop a list of key applicable laws and operate the system jointly with DOL, and ideally, also operate the updated registration process jointly, with DOL screening employer records through the LCA process. We reiterate that recommendation here and urge DOL to take steps to exclude lawbreaking employers that violate labor, employment, and immigration laws. While we realize our comment will only be read by DOL, we nevertheless include our discussion about DHS’s role in this process because we believe DOL and DHS should work in tandem to reduce labor and employment violations in the H-1B program.

In the 2023 proposed rule, Modernizing H-2 Program Requirements, Oversight, and Worker Protections,{{49}} DHS proposed to create or expand several additional bars to approval of new petitions filed by H-2 petitioners who have previously committed legal violations related to the H-2 programs. EPI submitted comments generally supporting the proposed changes, which were adopted as a final rule.{{50}} Although they fail to go far enough on their own, if adequately implemented the provisions will help curb abusive employers’ exploitation of the H-2 programs and will level the playing field for employers that obey the law. EPI additionally commented that employers that commit serious violations repeatedly should be permanently banned from the H-2 programs, as they have demonstrated their inability or unwillingness to comply with the programs’ requirements.

In those comments EPI further recommended that the DHS strengthen section 214.2(h)(10)(iii)(3), which addresses violations of “any applicable employment-related laws and regulations” by expanding it to include a number of other violations and making denial of petitions mandatory—rather than discretionary—if employers have violated any of those laws in the preceding five years.{{51}} 

We believe DHS should consider similar provisions for employers seeking to hire through the H-1B program because there have been numerous credible accusations of lawbreaking against H-1B employers, as well as investigations and litigation, finding that H-1B employers and recruiters that have been guilty of wage theft, financial bondage, and even human trafficking. The reality is that DOL has limited resources and has interpreted its authority to investigate H-1B employers as constrained, and it is difficult in practice for H-1B workers to come forward and complain themselves about employer lawbreaking—because they could face retaliation and lose their status, and possibly the opportunity to become lawful permanent residents—which means DOL likely receives fewer complaints than they otherwise would. And even when DOL does receive complaints, as numerous reports have shown, DOL often lacks the resources to investigate and take action against lawbreaking employers.{{52}}

Thus, at a minimum, to keep lawbreaking employers out of the H-1B program, DHS should have its own list of legal violations and deny any petition for an employer that has violated any of the laws on the list in the preceding five years. That would act as a backstop to prevent lawbreaking employers from hiring through the H-1B program. At present, as DHS rightly points out in the November 2023 Modernizing H-2 Program NPRM, even some of the worst violators of the law are allowed to recruit and hire H-2 workers. We know that this is also the case in the H-1B program. In fact, in the H-1B program, some of the biggest users of the program are also the most egregious violators, receiving thousands of H-1B petition approvals per year. And then after they violate the law, H-1B employees are afraid to complain to authorities because their immigration status is tied to their employer, and even if they are brave enough to lodge a complaint, as noted above, DOL may lack the resources to investigate violations and hold the employer accountable.

As EPI also recommended in the H-2 NPRM, DHS should go further to implement this by also cooperating with DOL to develop a front-end screening process that takes place at the labor condition application (LCA) stage, to vet the labor and employment law records of employers before they can be allowed to hire through the H-1B program. In multiple EPI reports and in comments in response to NPRMs, EPI has made a similar proposal—namely, that a front-end screening process should be created to prohibit employers with track records of wage and hour, labor, immigration, and other legal violations from hiring through the H visa programs.

To make a front-end screening process a reality, ideally, DOL should require employers to register for eligibility to use the H-1B program at the LCA stage, so employer records on compliance with labor and employment laws can be screened up front, before getting to the registration or petition stage. DOL could set up a registration process in which employers list basic information about their business and the purported need for H-1B workers (as is already done via the DOL temporary labor certification forms). As part of that new process, employers could be required to attest, under penalty of perjury and of being banned from hiring through the H-1B and other visa programs, that they have not been found to have violated any of the listed labor, employment, wage and hour, immigration, civil rights, disability, anti-trafficking, or anti-discrimination laws during the past five years. DOL could then attempt to verify by cross-referencing enforcement data and other relevant records—and could cooperate with other worker protection agencies like the NLRB and EEOC—and ultimately certify employers that have not violated the applicable laws.

To break established patterns of abuse, employers that have violated any labor, employment, wage and hour, immigration, civil rights, disability, anti-trafficking or anti-discrimination laws should be prohibited from submitting an LCA (or having their LCA approved) and ultimately not be allowed to hire H-1B workers. Employers that have clean records and an LCA approved by DOL could then continue on with the petition process at USCIS.

Given the present and likely future reality that WHD and other worker protection agencies will continue to be vastly underfunded and understaffed,{{53}} such a screening process on the front end of the H-1B application process could act as a useful and efficient tool to prevent legal violations without WHD having to go through lengthy and costly investigations on the back end, after workers have arrived in the United States and been robbed or otherwise exploited.

At the petition level, if a new screening process at DOL is not created that takes place before or as part of the LCA process, DHS should, at a minimum and as noted above, build on proposed section 8 C.F.R. 214.2(h)(10)(iii)(B) for H-2 petitions by creating a list of key labor, employment, wage and hour, immigration, civil rights, disability, anti-trafficking, and anti-discrimination laws, the violation of which would establish strong evidence that an employer does not treat their employees well and is unlikely to follow employment and immigration laws with respect to their H-1B employees. Although this would work best in tandem with a front-end screening process at the LCA stage, DHS could make significant progress in keeping lawbreaking employers out of the H-1B programs by mandating that any employer that has violated any of the listed laws will be prohibited from having a petition approved for hiring H-1B workers.

Another option would be for DHS to modify the existing H-1B Registration System so that it also screens the records of employers. That way DHS could use it to both manage the annual cap and to assess and certify whether employers are eligible to hire through H-1B based on their past legal violations. Employers could be required to attest, under penalty of perjury and of being banned from hiring through the H-1B and other visa programs, that they have not been found to have violated any of the listed labor, employment, wage and hour, immigration, civil rights, disability, anti-trafficking, or anti-discrimination laws during the past five years. USCIS could work to verify the employer attestation, although ideally DOL should partner with to do this, by cross-referencing DOL enforcement data and other relevant records—preferably also in partnership with other worker protection agencies like the NLRB and EEOC—and would then ultimately certify employers that have not violated the applicable laws, allowing them to continue with the registration process.

Conclusion

The H-1B visa program is the largest temporary work visa program in the United States and an important pathway into the U.S. labor market for skilled migrants from around the world—but a pathway that has serious deficiencies when it comes to the workplace rights of migrant workers and for preserving U.S. labor standards. While less is known about the other LCA programs, H-1B1 and E-3, they have even fewer applicable rules in place to protect workers, which likely means they are having similar impacts on worker rights and labor standards. By issuing this NPRM, DOL has taken an important first step towards reversing decades of artificially depressed wage rates for H-1B workers, and for making the prevailing wage methodology rules consistent across the other LCA programs and for EB-2 and EB-3 green cards. This will benefit other similarly situated workers and simplify and streamline the prevailing wage determination process. Nevertheless, as our comment recommends, more must be done—in this rulemaking and other executive actions—to improve the effectiveness of the updated prevailing wage rates and on enforcement in the LCA and PERM programs, in order to safeguard U.S. wages and labor standards.

Daniel Costa
Director of Immigration Law and Policy Research
Economic Policy Institute
Washington, DC

Ron Hira, Ph.D., P.E.
Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
Howard University

Endnotes

{{1.}} See for example, Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, H-1B visas and prevailing wage levels: A majority of H-1B employers—including major U.S. tech firms—use the program to pay migrant workers well below market wages, Economic Policy Institute, May 4, 2020; Ron Hira and Daniel Costa, New evidence of widespread wage theft in the H-1B visa program: Corporate document reveals how tech firms ignore the law and systematically rob migrant workers, Economic Policy Institute, December 9, 2021.

{{2.}} Employment and Training Administration, Adverse Effect Wage Rate Methodology for the Temporary Employment of H-2A Nonimmigrants in Non-Range Occupations in the United States, Interim Final Rule, request for comments, U.S. Department of Labor, 20 CFR Part 655, DOL Docket No. ETA-2025-0008, RIN 1205-AC24 (October 2, 2025).

{{3.}} Daniel Costa and Ben Zipperer, “Trump’s new H-2A wage rule will radically cut the wages of all farmworkers: New estimates show farmworkers stand to lose $4.4 to $5.4 billion annually under DOL’s updated Adverse Effect Wage Rate,” Working Economics blog (Economic Policy Institute) November 26, 2025; for additional discussion and background, see Daniel Costa, “EPI comment on DOL’s 2025 Interim Final Rule modifying the AEWR methodology for H-2A farmworkers,” Public Comments, Economic Policy Institute, December 1, 2025.

{{4.}} PERM stands for Program Electronic Management Review, and is the first step for employers who wish to sponsor an employee for permanent residence in the United States through the EB-2 and EB-3 categories.

{{5.}} See for example, Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, H-1B visas and prevailing wage levels: A majority of H-1B employers—including major U.S. tech firms—use the program to pay migrant workers well below market wages, Economic Policy Institute, May 4, 2020.

{{6.}} George Borjas, The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand, NBER working paper 34793, March 2026. See pages 3-4.

{{7.}} USCIS, X.com post, May 21, 2026 at 1:37 PM, https://x.com/USCIS/status/2057561453373399339

{{8.}} https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#–:explore:outcomes-by-major

{{9.}} Here are just a sample of some of the recent news accounts in major media outlets: Katherine Bindley, “The ‘Great Hesitation’ That’s Making It Harder to Get a Tech Job,” Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2025; Christopher Rugaber, “Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate,” Associated Press, June 26, 2025; Sydney Ember, “Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years,” NY Times, March 24, 2026.

{{10.}} Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, H-1B visas and prevailing wage levels: A majority of H-1B employers—including major U.S. tech firms—use the program to pay migrant workers well below market wages, Economic Policy Institute, May 4, 2020.

{{11.}} See for example, Connor O’Brien, Jeremy Neufeld, and Amy Nice, A Prescription for Fixing the Prevailing Wage System: Replacing Blind Benchmarking with Experience Benchmarking, Institute for Progress, March 27, 2026.

{{12.}} See Overview section in Wage and Hour Division, “H-1B Program,” web page on the U.S. Department of Labor website.

{{13.}} U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Modification of Registration Requirement for Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions, 86 Fed. Reg. 1676, at 1720, Table 7, June 8, 2021.

{{14.}} See Table 12 in Department of Homeland Security, Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H–1B Petitions, Notice of proposed rulemaking, CIS Docket No. 2820-25, DHS Docket No. USCIS-2025-0040, RIN: 1615-AD01 (September 24, 2026).

{{15.}} See for example, Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, H-1B Visas and Prevailing Wage Levels: A Majority of H-1B Employers—Including Major U.S. Tech Firms—Use the Program to Pay Migrant Workers Well Below Market Wages, Economic Policy Institute, May 4, 2020.

{{16.}} NPRM at 15490.

{{17.}} Norman Matloff, “H-1B Visas Are Transforming America,” Compact, October 8, 2025; Norman Matloff, Are foreign students the ‘best and brightest’? Data and implications for immigration policy, Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper #356, February 28, 2013.

{{18.}} NPRM at 15490.

{{19.}} Office of Foreign Labor Certification, OFLC Wage Search, last visited on May 23, 2026.

{{20.}} United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report to Congress, October 1, 2023 – September 30, 2024, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, April 29, 2025.

{{21.}} U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 5.3 Educational attainment for workers 25 years and older by detailed occupation, 2022–23 (Percent), Employment Projections, U.S. Department of Labor, retrieved May 23, 2026; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 11b. Employed people by detailed occupation and age, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, retrieved May 23, 2026.

{{22.}} U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 11b. Employed people by detailed occupation and age, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, retrieved May 23, 2026.

{{23.}} Connor O’Brien, Jeremy Neufeld, and Amy Nice, A Prescription for Fixing the Prevailing Wage System: Replacing Blind Benchmarking with Experience Benchmarking, Institute for Progress, March 27, 2026. PDF available here: https://ifp.org/wp-content/uploads/IFP_Prevailing_Wage_Experience_Benchmarking_.pdf

{{24.}} NPRM at 15490.

{{25.}} NPRM at 15474.

{{26.}} For the Davis-Bacon Act, see 40 USC §3141(2); and the Service Contract Act at 41 USC §351(a)(2).

{{27.}} Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Employment Wage Statistics, Frequently Asked Questions, at Section C, Number 8.

{{28.}} Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation – December 2025, March 20, 2026.

{{29.}} Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation – December 2025, March 20, 2026.

{{30.}} See tables, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation – December 2025, March 20, 2026.

{{31.}} Wage and Hour Division, “Fact Sheet #62L: What benefits must be offered to H-1B workers,” U.S. Department of Labor, Revised July 2008.

{{32.}} Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, H-1B visas and prevailing wage levels: A majority of H-1B employers—including major U.S. tech firms—use the program to pay migrant workers well below market wages, Economic Policy Institute, May 4, 2020.

{{33.}} NPRM at 15479.

{{34.}} See discussion of the 2013 Interim Final Rule setting the H-2B prevailing wage methodology in Daniel Costa, The H-2B temporary foreign worker program: For labor shortages or cheap, temporary labor? Economic Policy Institute, January 19, 2016.

{{35.}} Daniel Costa, “H-2B crabpickers are so important to the Maryland seafood industry that they get paid $3 less per hour than the state or local average wage,” Working Economics (Economic Policy Institute blog), May 26, 2017.

{{36.}} 8 U.S.C. 1182 (n)(1)(A)(i)(II).

{{37.}} Employment and Training Administration, Prevailing Wage Determination Policy Guidance, Nonagricultural Immigration Programs, U.S. Department of Labor, Revised November 2009.

{{38.}} Ethan Baron, “H-1B: Uber snatches up more foreign-worker visas as it lays off hundreds of employees,” Mercury News, October 17, 2019.

{{39.}} Ron Hira and Daniel Costa, New evidence of widespread wage theft in the H-1B visa program: Corporate document reveals how tech firms ignore the law and systematically rob migrant workers, Economic Policy Institute, December 9, 2021. See also, news coverage of our report, for example, Lauren Kaori Gurley, “Analysis Claims Migrant Tech Workers Have Been Underpaid by Tens of Millions,” Vice News, December 9, 2021.

{{40.}} See for example, Senator Richard Durbin, “How American Jobs are Outsourced,” YouTube.com video, April 16, 2016.

{{41.}} See for example, Stef Kight, “U.S. companies are forcing workers to train their own foreign replacements,” Axios, December 29, 2019; Julia Preston, “Pink Slips at Disney. But First, Training Foreign Replacements,” New York Times, June 3, 2015; Julia Preston, “Toys ‘R’ Us Brings Temporary Foreign Workers to U.S. to Move Jobs Overseas,” New York Times, September 29, 2015; Michael Hiltzik, “How the University of California Exploited a Visa Loophole to Move Tech Jobs to India,” Los Angeles Times, January 6, 2017; Patrick Thibodeau, “Southern California Edison IT Workers ‘Beyond Furious’ over H-1B Replacements,” Computerworld, February 5, 2015.

{{42.}} Eric Fan, Zachary Mider, Denise Lu, and Marie Patino, “How thousands of middlemen are gaming the H-1B program,” Bloomberg, July 31, 2024; Julia Preston, “Large Companies Game H-1B Visa Program, Costing the U.S. Jobs,” New York Times, November 10, 2015.

{{43.}} David Weil, The Fissured Workplace: How Work Became So Bad for So Many and What Can Be Done to Improve It, Harvard, 2014.

{{44.}} A number of studies show a wage penalty for subcontracted/outsourced workers. For example, see Arindrajit Dube and Ethan Kaplan, “Does Outsourcing Reduce Wages in the Low-Wage Service Occupations? Evidence from Janitors and Guards,” Cornell University ILR Review. January 1, 2010); Deborah Goldschmidt and Johannes Schmieder, “The Rise of Domestic Outsourcing and the Evolution of the German Wage Structure,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), 2017, pages 1165-1217; Andres Drenik, Simon Jäger, Pascuel Plotkin, and Benjamin Schoefer “Paying Outsourced Labor: Direct Evidence from Linked Temp Agency-Worker-Client Data,” Econometrics Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, September 2020.

{{45.}} Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor, “U.S. Department of Labor revises interpretation, issues new guidance clarifying filing, compliance requirements in H-1B visa program,” Press Release Number 21-97-NAT, January 15, 2021.

{{46.}} Julia Preston, “Pink Slips at Disney. But First, Training Foreign Replacements,” New York Times, June 3, 2015.

{{47.}} Alec MacGillis, “The Tech Recruitment Ruse That Has Avoided Trump’s Crackdown on Immigration,” ProPublica, June 3, 2025.

{{48.}} Daniel Costa and Ron Hira, “EPI comments on DHS’s “Modernizing H-1B” proposed rule,” Public Comments, Economic Policy Institute, December 22, 2023; commenting on U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Modernizing H-1B Requirements, Providing Flexibility in the F-1 Program, and Program Improvements Affecting Other Nonimmigrant Workers, Notice of proposed rulemaking, CIS No. 2745-23, DHS Docket No. USCIS-2023-0005, RIN: 1615-AC70, 88 Fed. Reg. 72870 (October 23, 2023).

{{49.}} U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Modernizing H-2 Program Requirements, Oversight, and Worker Protections, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, CIS No. 2740-23 and DHS Docket No. USCIS-2023-0012, RIN: 1615-AC76, 88 Fed. Reg. 65040 (September 20, 2023).

{{50.}} U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Modernizing H-2 Program Requirements, Oversight, and Worker Protections, Final Rule, CIS No. 2740-23; DHS Docket No. USCIS-2023-0012, RIN 1615-AC76, 89 Fed Reg. 103202 (December 18, 2024).

{{51.}} See EPI comment on the H-2 programs in the comment submitted to DHS in November 2023; Daniel Costa, EPI comments on DHS’s proposed rule on “Modernizing H-2 Program Requirements, Oversight, and Worker Protections,” Economic Policy Institute, November 20, 2023.

{{52.}} See for example, Rebecca Rainey, “Inadequate Labor Department Resources Stymie Enforcement Efforts,” Bloomberg Law, November 7, 2023.

{{53.}} See for example, AFL-CIO, Workers’ Rights Ice’d Out, February 25, 2026; Rebecca Rainey, “Trump’s Federal Workforce Cuts Hit Labor Department Enforcement,” Bloomberg Law, Feb. 24, 2025; Daniel Costa, Josh Bivens, Ben Zipperer, and Monique Morrissey, The U.S. benefits from immigration but policy reforms needed to maximize gains: Recommendations and a review of key issues to ensure fair wages and labor standards for all workers, October 4, 2024 (see Figure J); Daniel Costa and Philip Martin, Record-low number of federal wage and hour investigations of farms in 2022: Congress must increase funding for labor standards enforcement to protect farmworkers, Economic Policy Institute, August 22, 2023; Ihna Mangundayao, Celine McNicholas, and Margaret Poydock, “Worker protection agencies need more funding to enforce labor laws and protect workers,” Working Economics blog (Economic Policy Institute), July 29, 2021.

Since the second Trump administration swept into office in January 2025, it has undertaken a range of damaging and destabilizing actions that have weakened the economy, undermined workers, hurt businesses and consumers, and threatened core elements of our democracy. While Trump has targeted numerous Democratic-led states and cities, the Washington, D.C., region has faced acute and prolonged harms since day one. From the first set of executive actions signed on Inauguration Day, the Trump administration has attacked people and businesses in the capital region repeatedly and intensely. These initial actions announced the president’s dubious claims of authority to fire large segments of the federal workforce, eliminate long-standing federal agencies and programs, and begin a campaign of illegal and inhumane mass deportations.  

The Trump administration’s damaging actions have been enabled and abetted by Republican members of Congress. Their passage of H.R. 1, the bill that the White House has referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), amplifies the administration’s mass deportation agenda and shreds critical health care and food supports for lower-income families to finance tax cuts for the wealthy. This funding bill will only cause more pain in the years ahead for Washington, D.C.-area households and throughout the country.

Congress also passed a federal spending bill that constrained the District of Columbia’s ability to spend its own tax revenue (Koma 2025) and a resolution that may force the district to adopt local tax code changes that match the OBBBA, whether the city wants to or not—changes that will jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars for city programs (D.C. Fiscal Policy Institute 2026).

In this report, we assess the early indicators of the damage of Trump’s actions and their effects on the Washington, D.C., regional economy, with particular attention to effects on workers and the labor market. We focus on this region due to its prominence as an early target of the Trump administration, in part due to its large federal workforce. Additionally, the district’s unique status as a non-state means that its leaders have far less legal authority to resist Trump’s interference than other target areas do.

Throughout this report, unless otherwise indicated, the data describe economic conditions for the Washington, D.C., metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which includes the District of Columbia, four nearby counties in Maryland, six cities and 11 counties in northern Virginia, and one county in West Virginia. We also refer to this region as the DMV (Washington, D.C.; Maryland; and Virginia). While we do not yet have the requisite data to fully and precisely document all the effects of the administration’s actions, we can see clear signals that the regional economy is already struggling, with more severe impacts likely to register in the data soon.

We then explore some of the factors that make other regions particularly vulnerable to significant economic harm from the Trump administration’s agenda. These include counties with large concentrations of federal workers, areas where federal transfer income (such as Medicaid and Social Security) makes up a significant portion of the region’s economic base, and places with significant immigrant populations. Though Trump has largely targeted prominent, Democratic-led areas, many of the regions most susceptible to the harmful economic consequences of the administration’s actions are rural counties, frequently represented in Congress by Republicans.

Trump’s actions in Washington, D.C., have led to reduced employment and rising unemployment

The clearest sign of the harm that the Trump administration’s actions have done to the Washington, D.C., regional economy is the substantial drop in the region’s employment rate. Based on EPI analysis of Current Population Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from December 2024 to December 2025, the share of the regional working-age population with a job fell by 3.2 percentage points.{{1}} As shown in Table 1, this compares with a decline of just 0.4 percentage points for the country over the same period. Among prime-age workers (those ages 25–54), the share employed in the DMV fell by 2.7 percentage points, compared with a decline of just 0.1 percentage points for the country overall.

This dramatic drop in regional employment is a direct result of the Trump administration’s relentless attacks on federal government workers, cuts to federal programs and agencies, and their cascading effects on connected regional industries. Prior to Trump’s taking office, federal employees made up 11.2% of the metro area’s total workforce (BLS-CES-SAE 2025).{{2}} Between the end of 2024 and 2025, federal employment in the DMV region fell by more than 53,800 jobs (-14.2%) (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).{{3}} These losses reverberated through the regional economy as affected households pulled back on spending, and many may have even opted to move, as data show the DMV region had the largest increase in home sale listings of any major metro last year (Brookings Institution 2026).

These significant cuts to federal employment, though highly damaging on their own, are only the first layer of the administration’s harm on the regional labor market. The DMV has a non-federal workforce of over three million people (BLS-CES-SAE 2026), many of whom work at firms that consult with, contract with, are funded by, or are otherwise connected to the government.{{4}} The Trump administration has terminated thousands of grants to scientific research institutions (Kozlov, Tollefson, and Garisto 2026) and frozen or delayed funding for tens of thousands of nonprofit organizations, causing those targeted to limit operations or lay off staff (Tomasko et al. 2025). These cuts have also shrunk the funding pool for nonprofit groups, causing budget challenges even for those not previously receiving federal funding, as they must compete with groups previously funded through federal programs that are now scrambling to fill gaps with private support (Barrett 2025). The administration has also moved to cancel contracts with any company that maintains a commitment to DEI standards (Singh 2026). Although these cuts affect organizations everywhere, the DMV is disproportionately vulnerable to the economic harms of attacks on this sector as it has one of the highest concentrations of nonprofits in the country (Friesenhahn 2025). This is evident in the region’s slight dip (-0.3%) in private-sector employment from December 2024 to December 2025, a change from the consistent, albeit slowing, growth that had marked the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the national level, private-sector employment experienced slow but still positive change (0.5%) over the same period (BLS-CES-SAE 2026).{{5}}

The widespread impact of the administration’s actions can be seen in the breadth of employment declines across racial, ethnic, gender, and age groups in the region. As shown in Table 1, the employment rate fell by at least 2 percentage points for every demographic category of workers in the DMV. Notably, young workers under age 25 (-4.3 percentage points), workers age 55 and older (-3.3 percentage points), men (-3.5 percentage points), and Black workers (-5.9 percentage points) all experienced drops in their employment rates larger than the regional average. For older workers, the above-average decline likely reflects, at least in part, the firings and retirements of many federal employees, including many who had been near retirement age and opted into the so-called “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation program. For young workers, the administration’s funding and programmatic cuts directly reduced many traditional Beltway early-career opportunities (internships, fellowships), while weakness in the broader regional economy simultaneously forced area employers to pull back on entry-level positions.

Still, not all groups have been equally affected by Trump’s actions. As Table 1 shows, Black workers in the DMV region have suffered the largest employment declines, with the share employed falling by 5.9 percentage points in 2025. This is nearly triple the employment drop experienced by white workers (2.0 percentage points) in the region and, notably, more than seven times the employment drop of Black workers throughout the country overall (0.8 percentage points). Again, this is a direct consequence of the administration’s attacks on the federal workforce. Black workers have long tended to make up a larger share of the public sector than they do in the private sector—both in the DMV and across the country. This is because the public sector has historically been a pathway to the middle class for workers of color who face labor market discrimination in the private sector (Maye and Marvin 2025).

Trump’s massive cuts to federal employment have also rapidly undone what had been considerable progress in shrinking the regional Black-white employment gap. Figure A shows the employment rate of DMV workers, overall and by race/ethnicity, since the end of 2018. The rapid drop in the Black employment rate since the start of President Trump’s second term is striking, bringing the regional Black employment rate back down to its pandemic-era low. It is also notable that before that drop began, Black workers in the region were employed at essentially the same rate as their white counterparts—the only time in the last two decades when that occurred. These losses in employment will exacerbate existing racial and gender inequity across wages, poverty, and unemployment (Markoff and Zielinski 2026; Zielinski 2025; Busette and Elizondo 2022).

Recent increases in the DMV’s overall unemployment rate underscore the damage Trump is doing to the region. The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped more than a full percentage point, from 3.1% in January 2025 to 4.4% in January 2026—more than four times the increase in the national figure. (Importantly, this increase understates the weakening of the area labor market, as the BLS estimates the DMV labor force shrank by 3% over the same period—meaning that many workers who would have been counted as unemployed simply left the area labor force.) For comparison, the national non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by less than half a percentage point, moving from 4.4% in January 2025 to 4.7% in January 2026 (BLS-LAUS 2026).

These numbers do not capture the full extent of the economic downturn in the DMV area, nor can they give us precise insight into where the pain has been most acutely felt. The administration’s violent deportation agenda, for example, will lead to a drop in immigrant and U.S.-born Hispanic workers’ employment, but resulting changes in Hispanic employment rates may be muted by the corresponding shrinking of the overall Hispanic population (Zipperer 2025). In other words, while the overall Hispanic population in the U.S. may fall dramatically in coming years, the ratio of remaining employed workers to remaining total population may stay somewhat consistent. This will mask the true scale of the economic and social harm being done to immigrant communities in the DMV and across the country.

It is also difficult to fully quantify how the deployment and continued presence of National Guard troops, violent immigration actions, and other authoritarian, fear-inducing tactics have impacted D.C.-area businesses, workers, and families, particularly in neighborhoods with predominately Black and Latino populations. Early data show regional declines in tourism, consumer spending, and foot traffic; harder to capture are the emotional and long-term economic consequences (Montgomery 2025; Hadden Loh and Haskins 2025; Sachs and Cocco 2025). Other recent analyses estimate similar economic harms in cities where targeted federal immigration enforcement actions have been aggressively deployed (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). A full accounting of the Trump administration’s harms on the Washington, D.C., region will take years to document.

Other localities should brace for similar consequences

Some of the Trump administration’s actions and their acute consequences are unique to the DMV, a function of the region’s high concentration of federal employees and government contractors, as well as the District of Columbia’s lack of statehood and full constitutional rights. However, the anti-government attacks the administration has unleashed on DMV-area households, workers, and businesses will have cascading consequences for communities throughout the country. The effects of the administration’s authoritarian attacks on the civil service, democratic institutions, and immigrants (Human Rights Watch 2026) that first registered across the DMV should be viewed as a preview of the consequences that will be felt in other regions. While no locality will be spared, regions particularly at risk include those with large shares of government workers (especially federal workers, but state and local government workers too), localities in which federal funding and social safety net programs make up a large portion of total area income, and those with large immigrant populations.

Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce will harm communities that rely on their employment

The day Trump returned to power in January 2025, he began attacking the federal workforce, first by moving to reclassify tens of thousands of federal employees to make it easier to fire and replace them with political loyalists (EPI 2026c), and then by stripping more than one million federal workers of their collective bargaining rights (EPI 2025a). The Trump White House subsequently worked feverishly to slash federal employment, attempting large and chaotic reductions in force, shuttering entire agencies, and coercing tens of thousands of staff to resign, among many other attacks (Poydock 2025). As of March 2026, the administration’s actions have reduced nationwide federal government employment by over 350,000 (11.7%) since January 2025 (Gould 2026).

Though federal workers make up a sizeable share of the DMV’s workforce, over 80% of federal workers live outside the region (Partnership for Public Service 2024). For instance, in Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico—states that are home to large swaths of federal and Native land, military bases, and federal research institutions—federal workers make up at least 4.5% of total employment (EPI 2025c). Within states, federal workers tend to be concentrated in specific localities. For instance, in Apache County, Arizona, which is largely made up of the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache Reservations, lands that extend beyond county lines, the federal government employs 12% of the county’s workers, more than double the next most significant county for federal worker employment in the state (EPI 2025c). There are 22 U.S. counties, spread across the South, Midwest, and West Census regions, where federal workers comprise at least 10% of the county’s workforce (see Table 2).

In these counties and elsewhere, federal workers are the backbone of the regional economy, both through the essential services they provide and through their contributions to the local economy. Trump’s attacks simultaneously threaten federal workers’ livelihoods and the economic health of communities in which these workers’ spending on goods and services makes up a large share of economic activity in the region. In Apache County, Arizona, civilian government workers’ earnings comprise 11.7% of total economic activity in the county (see Table 3)—roughly the same as their share of overall county employment. However, in some counties, federal employees’ earnings are a disproportionate share of the regional economic base. For instance, in Leavenworth County, Kansas, where federal employees make up 10.0% of employment (Leavenworth has a large federal prison), federal civilian earnings comprise 22.1% of total income in the county.

The effects from lost federal jobs and income in these regions could be devastating. Some of these communities are places that have already faced historic disinvestment and in which there are few local employment opportunities that can match the quality of federal government jobs. These jobs are historically stable, good quality, union jobs that offer a pathway to the middle class, particularly for workers without a college education.{{6}}

Regions highly dependent on federal revenue will also suffer from a reduction in services and a loss of income

Beyond the harm to localities from reductions in the federal workforce, localities that are particularly reliant on federal government revenue and services will bear the consequences of Trump’s actions most acutely, though no locality will be spared from harm. For example, the Trump administration has announced or considered $23 billion in cuts to federal clean energy projects in nearly every state (CATF 2025) and $8 billion in cuts to colleges and universities that will impact every state’s economy (Bedekovics and Ragland 2025). Trump’s 2025 budget bill also made massive cuts to federal safety net programs that millions of low-income households rely on in order to finance tax cuts for the wealthiest households and corporations.

Funds from federal programs such as SNAP, Medicaid, and other social programs not only help struggling families make ends meet, they also comprise a significant share of a locality’s “economic base,” the amount of money circulating in that region, as shown by sociologist Robert Manduca in a recent working paper (2025). Indeed, an often-overlooked benefit of Medicaid coverage is its role as a source of income for low-income households (money they would have had to spend on medical care in the absence of Medicaid). For the bottom 20% of households in the U.S., Medicaid comprised 70% of their total money income, based on recent data from the Congressional Budget Office (Bivens, Wething, and Morrissey 2025). In fact, government transfers such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid collectively made up 40% of the economic base of U.S. regions in 2022 (Manduca 2025). Substantial cuts to government social programs that support low-income households could reduce the economic base of these localities, at a scale equivalent, in many cases, to the loss of entire private industries in those areas.

Without deliberate intervention by state lawmakers to offset lost federal revenues, localities in every state face dire economic losses, but states particularly reliant on government transfers will suffer most. For instance, take Clay County, West Virginia, which is represented in Congress by Rep. Carol Miller (R-WV01), who voted in support of Trump’s budget bill (Miller 2025). Clay County’s poverty rate is more than double the national rate, and its per capita income is half the national amount (U.S. Census 2024a). Of the 10 U.S. counties that rely most on each of the largest federal social insurance programs (Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, and Social Security) as a share of their economic base, Clay is the only county in the country to show up three times (see Table 4). Federal government transfers in the form of Medicare, SNAP, and Social Security payments comprise 57% of Clay County’s economic base, 20 times the share comprised by the earnings of every private industry in the county combined. Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia all have at least three counties that are ranked in the top 10 in the country for their reliance on a given social safety net program as a share of the county’s economic base (see Table 4).

Localities that have significant shares of federal workers and rely heavily on federal government transfers may face particularly significant consequences as a result of Trump’s attacks on the federal workforce and the Republican budget bill’s cuts to essential social safety net programs. For example, in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, and Apache County, Arizona, federal government workers make up 16.1% and 12.0% of all workers in the county, respectively (EPI 2025b). At the same time, both counties are ranked in the top-10 counties most reliant on federal government transfers—Apache is #2 for Medicaid, and Rio Arriba is #10 for SNAP. In Apache County, federal government transfers account for three-quarters (76.9%) of the county’s economic base, and the earnings of federal government civilian workers account for 11.7%—the Navajo Nation Tribal Government is the county’s largest employer (NACOG 2023). Meanwhile, private earnings account for a mere 2.8% of the county’s economy. In Apache, Trump’s cuts to both the federal workforce and federal government programs mean that the federal government may be unable to fulfill its legal obligations to tribal communities (Brown 2025) that have faced decades of disinvestment and depressed economic outcomes resulting from historic land theft and forced assimilation. Apache County’s poverty rate of 31.2% (AZ Economics 2026) is nearly triple the national rate of 11.1% in 2023 (Shrider 2024).

Trump’s anti-immigrant crackdown and deportation agenda hurt localities with large immigrant populations

Trump has launched a campaign of terror against immigrant communities, communities of color, and those who stand with them. Last summer, Trump federalized local police and deployed thousands of federal troops to diverse cities with large immigrant populations (Kim 2025). Though Washington, D.C., may have experienced the most visible federal troop presence, a function of the district’s lack of statehood and the president’s unchecked authority to mobilize the National Guard there (Dallas 2025), Los Angeles was the first city Trump targeted after public opposition to aggressive immigration raids (Kim 2025). It was soon followed by Washington, D.C.; Memphis, Tennessee; Portland, Oregon; New Orleans, Louisiana; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Portland, Maine.

These attacks are characteristic of an authoritarian playbook that includes forcing the leaders of diverse, opposition-led communities to bend to the strongman government’s will (McManus, Benson, and Herman 2024). Minneapolis, home to a large immigrant population, was subjected to an unprecedented immigration crackdown that drew widespread protests (Boone 2026). During “Operation Metro Surge,” as it was called, federal immigration enforcement officials made 4,000 arrests and killed two U.S. citizens. Though the true toll of this violent operation may never be fully quantified, initial economic data show clear cause for concern. A recent analysis estimated that Trump’s immigration crackdown has led to a 2.9% decline in consumer spending in Minnesota over a single month—the equivalent of the state’s economy losing $626 million (Rosenthal and Sojourner 2026). Relative to overall consumer spending, the food and accommodation sector (which employs a large share of immigrant workers) saw the most significant decline in January 2026—3.8% or a $46 million reduction in economic activity. Researchers also estimated that nearly 3% of workers in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul region were unable to work during the occupation, resulting in a loss of over $100 million in wages (Sojourner and Rosenthal 2026).

Trump’s deportation agenda will continue to destabilize local communities and result in job losses for immigrant and U.S.-born residents alike (Zipperer 2025). Though immigrants live in counties across the U.S., coastal urban areas tend to have the largest shares of foreign-born residents. Counties with the largest foreign-born populations include Miami-Dade, Florida; Queens, New York; Aleutians, Alaska; and Hudson, New Jersey (see Table 5). Counties with relatively large shares of immigrants may see particularly acute harms from aggressive immigration enforcement.

Communities face overlapping economic threats from attacks on federal workers, the social safety net, and immigrants, but state and local lawmakers can resist them.

The Trump administration’s attacks on the federal workforce, the social safety net, and immigrant communities are designed to exacerbate economic precarity in many communities that are already struggling (Bivens 2026). The implementation of Trump’s authoritarian agenda in the DMV region may be the first, clearest, and in some cases most direct manifestation of its harms, but other localities across the country—particularly those with large federal workforces, those that are heavily dependent on federal revenue and those with sizeable immigrant populations—are far from immune, and many will suffer as much, if not more, from this agenda.

While state and local leaders cannot stop federal attacks, they do have the power to resist Trump’s agenda by improving state labor standards (EPI 2026b), advancing protections for immigrant workers (Díaz and Whitaker 2026), investing in the public-sector workforce (Bivens and Shierholz 2026), and using progressive tax policies (Austin and Davis 2025) to stabilize funding for critical social programs and other investments that workers, families, and communities need.

Notes

{{1.}} Throughout this report, unless explicitly noted, the source for all employment rate data is the authors’ analysis of Current Population Survey data (EPI 2026a). We compare an average of calendar year 2025 with calendar year 2024 in order to have adequate sample sizes for the noted demographic groups.

{{2.}} Employment level by industry and sector data come from the authors’ analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) State and Metro Area (SAE) data.

{{3.}} These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. A quarterly comparison of 2025Q4 to 2024Q4 finds roughly the same results—employment fell by 52,600 jobs (13.9%). The quarterly analysis omits October in both years to maintain an apples-to-apples comparison, accounting for missing data due to the government shutdown that began in October 2025 and the subsequent lapse in Bureau of Labor Statistics funding.

{{4.}} The non-federal workforce includes private sector workers as well as state and local government employees.

{{5.}} These numbers are calculated using monthly totals rather than annual averages. Quarterly comparisons of 2025 Q4 to 2024 Q4 produce similar results—private sector employment fell by 0.1% in the DMV and grew by 0.7% nationally. The quarterly analysis follows the methodology outlined in note 2.

{{6.}} On average, federal workers with advanced degrees typically earn less in wages and total compensation than their private-sector counterparts. Federal workers without an advanced degree typically earn more than their private-sector counterparts and have access to retirement benefits that have become less common in the private sector (CBO 2024).

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Zielinski, Connor. 2025. “Inequality Remained Extreme in 2024 as D.C. Backslid on Poverty.” DCFPI Blog (D.C. Fiscal Policy Institute), September 15, 2025.

Zipperer, Ben. 2025. Trump’s Deportation Agenda Will Destroy Millions of Jobs: Both Immigrants and U.S.-Born Workers Would Suffer Lob losses, Particularly in Construction and Child Care. Economic Policy Institute, July 2025.

Division of Humanitarian Affairs
Office of Policy and Strategy
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Department of Homeland Security
5900 Capital Gateway Drive
Camp Springs, MD 20746

Re: DHS Docket No. USCIS-2025-0370, Employment Authorization Reform for Asylum Applicants, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (Feb. 23, 2026) ^{{1}}

To whom it may concern:

The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) submits this comment strongly opposing the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) titled Employment Authorization Reform for Asylum Applicants, published February 23, 2026. and assigned DHS Docket No. USCIS-2025-0370 (i.e. the proposed rule).

About EPI and organizational interest

The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank established in 1986 to include the needs of low- and middle-income workers in economic policy discussions. EPI conducts research and analysis on the economic status of working America, proposes policies that protect and improve economic conditions and raise labor standards for low- and middle-income workers—regardless of immigration status—and assesses policies with respect to how well they further those goals.

EPI has researched, written, and commented extensively on the U.S. system for labor migration, including on temporary immigration protections and Employment Authorization Documents (EADs), and on labor standards enforcement for both the low-wage and professional workforce. EPI has also provided expert testimony about the U.S. immigration system to both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as state legislatures.

Summary of the comment

The proposed rule is designed to force asylum applicants seeking haven in the United States to live in the country without being able to work or support themselves and their families. Among other changes, the proposed rule introduces extreme and potentially indefinite delays to obtain a work permit, as it proposes to extend the waiting period to apply for work authorization from 150 days to 365 days, increase the mandatory processing timelines once an initial work permit application is received from 30 days to 180 days, and pause initial work permit processing completely when average affirmative asylum processing times exceed an average 180 days.{{1}} The proposed rule also imposes many new eligibility barriers for both initial and renewal work permits, and would make approval of both applications completely discretionary, meaning asylum-seekers may be denied employment authorization for no reason at all.{{2}}

This proposed rule would be acutely harmful to asylum-seekers, but also to employers, coworkers, and spouses and children who rely on asylum-seekers’ employment and income. From the perspective of worker rights, labor standards, and growth in the overall economy, this NPRM raises at least four significant concerns that should be avoided by withdrawing the proposed rule in full.

First, DHS ignores the true value and impact of work authorization on the workforce, and fails to estimate the negative economic impacts that will result from the NPRM. In addition, the proposed rule would impact many workers already participating in the U.S. workforce, including individuals the NPRM classifies as “initial” asylum applicants who previously held lawful employment authorization through programs such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), humanitarian parole, or deferred action. By focusing on deterrence of future migration while overlooking these workforce impacts, the NPRM substantially understates both the disruption the rule would cause and the reliance interests at stake.

Second, the NPRM rests on the flawed assumption that employers can easily replace asylum-seeking workers who lose employment authorization, and that such replacement can happen quickly and without disruption to the economy. In reality, sudden workforce losses that result from the NPRM terminating or putting in jeopardy the work authorization of roughly 2 million current workers would disrupt operations across multiple industries, forcing employers to increase mandatory overtime, heightening workplace safety risks, and creating significant operational instability that would impact not only asylum-seekers but also their coworkers. Employers would also lose the experience and job-specific skills that many asylum applicants already possess.

Third, by making it far more difficult for asylum-seekers to obtain or renew work authorization, the proposed rule would eviscerate the workplace rights of millions of current and future workers, pushing many into the informal economy, increasing the risk of wage theft, retaliation, and other forms of worker exploitation. This shift would also undermine labor and employment law enforcement by making workers less likely to report violations or cooperate with investigators, weakening workplace protections and lowering labor standards for all workers. The NPRM fails to acknowledge the scope of these enforcement and labor-standards consequences for U.S.-born citizens and foreign-born workers, half of whom are U.S. citizens.

Fourth, the NPRM fails to consider the substantial reliance interests that workers have developed around a predictable system of asylum-based employment authorization, which the NPRM would upend.

Far from streamlining the regulation of asylum-related employment authorization, the proposed rule would harm workers across the board. For these reasons, DHS should withdraw the proposed rule.

The worker rights of millions are protected by EADs

The role that Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) play when it comes to protecting worker rights and uplifting workplace standards should not be ignored and cannot be overstated. For workers who lack a permanent or more durable immigration status, obtaining a temporary EAD can mean having enforceable workplace rights that an individual would otherwise not have. While all workers have some labor and workplace rights under U.S. law—regardless of immigration status—enforcing them in practice becomes virtually impossible because of the threat of deportation, which prevents workers who lack an immigration status or an EAD from calling out lawbreaking employers and demanding that they comply with the law, or from reporting workplace violations to labor enforcement agencies. But having an asylum-based EAD, or protection from deportation through temporary administrative immigration protections like parole, Temporary Protected Status, deferred action—accompanied by an EAD—means that, in practice, workers can report workplace violations to government officials without fear of retaliation that can lead to deportation. It also means that a worker with an EAD can be employed by just about any U.S. employer and change jobs or employers, unlike, for example, migrant workers employed with temporary visas who can only be employed by the sponsor of their visa.

Altogether, nearly 5.6 million people in the U.S. held a temporary but precarious immigration status in 2024, including over 2 million people who are asylum-seekers. (see Table 1 below).

Table 1

While these statuses and protections are only a band-aid for a flawed immigration system that is deeply in need of reform,{{3}} they have been shown to protect millions of workers from some of the worst forms of employer lawbreaking. Employers also greatly benefit from workers having a protective status and a work permit because it allows them to lawfully employ millions of people who would otherwise not be eligible to work, leading to billions in economic contributions to the U.S. economy and generating demand that stimulates growth.

DHS ignores the positive value and impact of work authorization on the workforce and economy, and the negative impacts of terminating and delaying work authorization

In the NPRM, DHS does not estimate and consider the true value and impact that EADs have on the workforce and economy, not even specifically for asylum-seekers. There are examples of existing research showing the important economic contributions that workers with temporary immigration protections and EADs are able to make thanks to being work-authorized. These estimates are relevant because parole, TPS, and DACA recipients are likely to see similar wage gains associated with having an EAD, due to gaining the ability to work lawfully, which brings with it the practical ability to enforce workplace rights and standards. In addition, may persons with protections like TPS and DACA may also be asylum applicants.

One estimate from the American Immigration Council estimated that when the TPS population was approximately 354,000 in 2021, “TPS holders contributed more than $2.2 billion in taxes, including almost $1 billion to state and local governments,” as well as “held $8 billion in spending power.”{{4}} Another estimate by Moriarty found that TPS-eligible individuals “annually contribute some $31 billion in wages to the national GDP.”{{5}}

Research has also quantified some of the contributions made by persons who have an EAD because they qualified for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). DACA was created by DHS in 2012, and recipients are eligible for protections from deportation and EADs that are valid for two years and renewable. More than 835,000 persons have benefitted from DACA, and more than 500,000 were enrolled as of 2024.{{6}} Svajlenka and Truong found that DACA recipient households “pay $6.2 billion in federal taxes and $3.3 billion in state and local taxes each year,” and “after taxes, these households hold $25.3 billion in spending power,” and that DACA recipient families “own 68,000 homes, making $760 million in mortgage payments and $2.5 billion in rental payments annually.”{{7}}

When it comes to measuring the workplace impact and economic benefits of workers being issued an EAD, there are a few examples that are worth citing here. One is an annual survey of DACA recipients that was conducted in 2024 for the ninth time. The most recent survey, conducted by Wong et al. and published by the Center for American Progress, showed that DACA has been an essential tool to improve the economic and educational outcomes of recipients.{{8}} In terms of the impact that deferred action and an EAD have had on the employment of DACA recipients: 59.1% of respondents moved to a job with better pay; 47.3% moved to a job with better working conditions; 47.5% moved to a job that “better fits [their] education and training”; 49.6% moved to a job that “better fits [their] long-term career goals”; 57.3% moved to a job with health insurance or other benefits; and 19.6% of respondents obtained professional licenses.

Wong et al. also measured the impact of EADs on DACA recipients’ wages, finding that “[d]ata from the past nine years show that DACA has had a significant and positive effect on wages: Recipients’ average hourly wage more than doubled from $11.92 to $31.52 per hour—an increase of 164.4 percent—after receiving DACA.” These significant wage increases are no doubt a result of the labor and workplace rights and stability that DACA recipients gain from having an EAD.

Orrenius and Zavodny examined the wage and employment impact of TPS{{9}}—which allows those who are eligible to also be granted an EAD. They looked specifically at migrants from El Salvador, finding that having TPS increased employment rates, and that less-educated Salvadoran men who were employed earned 13% more if they had TPS. They note that “As a whole, the results suggest that less-educated Salvadoran men who receive TPS are able to move into better jobs and become more selective about the jobs they hold, increasing their earnings but also their job search and unemployment incidence.”

One other analysis comes from Kallick,{{10}} looking specifically at asylum-seekers in New York and nationwide, assesses the wage impact of being issued an EAD. Relying on previous methodologies for measuring the impact of a lawful immigration status being granted to unauthorized immigrants, Kallick estimates that asylum-seekers who are granted EADs increase their wages by 10%.

While the relative benefits of precarious and temporary immigration protections and EADs to migrant workers and the broader economy are clear, it is important to note here that because of the NPRM’s new provisions and pauses in processing, a significant share of the 2 million EADs held by asylum-seekers are unlikely to be renewed, or at a minimum, will be substantially delayed—and initial applications will not be granted—despite meeting the statutory requirements for issuance. This violates the statute and will leave hundreds of thousands of workers at least, and possibly millions, unemployed and without the ability to feed and house themselves, causing them to rely on homeless shelters and food banks, which are already overstretched given the current state of the economy and the affordability crisis. Thus, DHS through this NPRM will intentionally hurt the economy and eliminate the economic benefits for workers and employers that EADs held by asylum-seekers create—and exacerbate a crisis among social safety net providers—a fact that the NPRM does not grapple with or address.

In the meantime, EADs obtained through the asylum process, like those obtained through TPS, parole, and DACA, can mean the difference between having rights on the job or being extraordinarily vulnerable to the worst abuses by employers. While the current administration has claimed they want to help U.S. workers, actions like the mass detention and deportation of millions of workers and canceling EADs reveal they are willing to degrade conditions and standards for all workers, as well as kill jobs and shrink the economy, in order to carry out their extreme immigration enforcement agenda.{{11}}

If the NPRM is not withdrawn, millions of workers will be more easily exploited by their bosses and driven into the informal economy. That, in turn, will reduce their tax contributions that support the social safety net and lower their wages significantly{{12}}—ultimately hurting U.S workers in low-wage industries and the U.S. economy writ large by driving down demand for goods and services. It will also leave employers without millions of reliable employees in industries like construction, hospitality, childcare, agriculture, food processing and production, and more.

The NPRM underestimates the economic harm to initial asylum applicants who are already employed in the U.S. workforce

The NPRM rests heavily on the premise that restricting access to asylum-based work authorization will deter future asylum applicants by reducing the perceived “pull factor” of employment opportunities in the United States given the lengthy asylum backlog.{{13}} While briefly referenced above, it is worth highlighting that this premise overlooks that many “initial” asylum employment authorization applicants are workers who are already here, including many who are gainfully employed.

Since January 2025, the federal government has terminated or moved to dismantle legal immigration programs that provided work authorization to hundreds of thousands of individuals, including several countries’ TPS designations, the CBP One parole program, the parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV), multiple family reunification parole programs, and DACA.{{14}} Many workers whose work permits have been terminated or threatened by these changes—and who are also eligible for asylum—are filing asylum applications and seeking initial employment authorization based on their pending applications.

The NPRM acknowledges this trend in passing,{{15}} but largely sidesteps its implications—namely, that the NPRM’s sweeping restrictions on employment authorization for “initial asylum applicants” will largely fall on individuals who are already integrated into the lawful workforce. These workers are not hypothetical future entrants; they are experienced employees currently working in hospitals, manufacturing facilities, construction sites, hotels, schools, and public services. The NPRM therefore risks removing from the workforce hundreds of thousands of workers who have already been performing essential roles in the U.S. economy.

By focusing on speculative deterrence effects for future migrants while overlooking the proposed rule’s immediate impact on workers already embedded in the U.S. economy, the NPRM fails to accurately assess the scope of the disruption the proposed rule would cause. This flawed premise permeates the NPRM’s analysis and projected impacts and, on its own, warrants withdrawal of the proposed rule.

The NPRM incorrectly assumes that asylum-seekers who lose employment authorization can easily be replaced and ignores the resulting disruption to the economy

The NPRM suggests that asylum-seeking workers who lose employment authorization may be replaced and that the resulting shifts may lead to increased hours or compensation for currently employed workers.{{16}} Although the NPRM acknowledges that restrictions on asylum-based employment authorization may lead employers to rely more heavily on currently employed workers through increased hours or overtime, it largely treats these effects as a potential transfer of compensation rather than as a source of workforce disruption.{{17}} These assumptions simply do not reflect the realities in which many asylum applicants work.

A) The NPRM would shrink the legal workforce, exacerbating staffing issues in key industries

Asylum applicants are employed in a number of key industries, such as construction, transportation, manufacturing, food preparation and service, and building and grounds maintenance.{{18}} Employers in sectors such as health care, long-term care, hospitality, education, and logistics frequently report difficulty recruiting and retaining sufficient numbers of workers.{{19}} In these and other industries, the loss of experienced workers cannot easily be offset by replacement hiring. This is the case, in part, because of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies, which are resulting in stagnant population and workforce growth, leaving fewer available workers to fill positions previously held by asylum-seekers.{{20}}

The NPRM as a result will exacerbate staffing issues in key industries, by pausing, terminating, or simply not adjudicating EAD applications. Further, the NPRM provides no empirical analysis demonstrating that employers will be able to replace workers who lose asylum-based employment authorization. Instead, the proposed rule rests on speculative assumptions that are inconsistent with the experience of the industries most affected.

B) The NPRM would increase mandatory overtime and workload pressures on remaining workers

Across unionized industries, abrupt workforce losses rarely produce the seamless labor substitution envisioned in the NPRM. Instead, employers often struggle to recruit qualified replacements, leaving operations understaffed for extended periods. In some cases, employers may scale back operations or lay off additional workers when they can no longer meet production or service demands due to the loss of experienced personnel.{{21}} These dynamics are particularly severe in rural areas and specialized industries where the available labor pool is already limited and recruiting new workers can take months or even years.

When employers cannot quickly replace lost staff, the burden falls on the remaining workforce. Workers may be required to work extended shifts, mandatory overtime, or intensified production schedules to maintain operations. These conditions increase worker fatigue and place significant strain on the remaining workforce.{{22}}

C) The NPRM would increase workplace safety risks by disrupting experienced workforces

Staffing shortages and excessive overtime can also create significant safety risks. In many safety-sensitive workplaces, such as construction sites, manufacturing facilities, warehouses, and healthcare settings, the sudden loss of experienced workers can create immediate hazards for the remaining workforce. Short-staffing often forces employees to perform additional tasks or work at faster production speeds, increasing the likelihood of fatigue-related injuries and other workplace incidents. Efforts to rapidly replace experienced workers with new or inexperienced hires can further heighten safety risks for the entire workforce. Unionized workplaces have reported increased injury rates, higher stress levels, and exacerbated turnover and burnout following sudden staffing reductions tied to immigration policy changes.{{23}}

D) The NPRM would weaken bargaining power in unions and organizing capacity

Many asylum-seekers and other immigrant workers are union members, and their ability to work lawfully is critical to the stability of union bargaining units. By severely restricting asylum-seekers’ access to employment authorization, the NPRM would harm not only individual workers but also the unions that represent them by disrupting membership, weakening collective representation, and undermining unions’ capacity to maintain stable bargaining relationships with employers.

Labor history and modern labor-market research confirm the central role immigrant workers play in sectors where unions organize and represent workers.{{24}} Immigrant workers are disproportionately employed in high-turnover, demanding industries where unions depend on workforce stability to sustain membership and bargaining strength.{{25}} As immigrant employment has grown, so too has immigrants’ share of union membership, making them an increasingly important source of union participation and organizing.

By sharply curtailing asylum-seekers’ access to employment authorization, the NPRM would destabilize the workforce in industries where unions are building and maintaining collective representation. Denying or delaying work authorization would force many workers out of lawful employment or prevent workers from entering lawful employment relationships and joining unions, weakening existing bargaining units and reducing unions’ membership base. It would also disrupt organizing efforts by removing workers from the workforce before they can participate in union campaigns or collective bargaining.

The NPRM’s restrictions on asylum-seekers’ work authorization would significantly impair unions’ ability to represent and grow their membership.

The NPRM would push workers into the underground economy, increase labor and employment violations, weaken labor standards enforcement, and lower wages in numerous industries

The proposed rule would significantly restrict asylum-seekers’ ability to work legally while their asylum claims—often pending for years—are adjudicated, effectively forcing many asylum-seekers to support themselves and their families for extended periods of time without lawful employment.

The NPRM does not meaningfully analyze how individuals in this situation are expected to sustain themselves during those years, nor how effectively eliminating asylum-seekers’ access to employment authorization will impact the enforcement of labor standards, including wage and hour laws, labor laws, and workplace safety laws. In practice, without work authorization, many people will turn to informal or off-the-books employment arrangements in order to support themselves and their families. And we know from existing research that employees who lack work authorization are more than twice as likely to be victims of wage theft for minimum wage violations than U.S.-born citizens.{{26}} Workers in these circumstances are significantly more vulnerable to exploitation. Employers may take advantage of workers’ immigration status to suppress wages, deny overtime pay, ignore workplace safety standards, or retaliate against workers who attempt to assert their rights.

When workers are pushed into informal employment, the resulting labor violations extend beyond those workers themselves—to all workers—regardless of immigration status or the country where they were born. Employers who exploit vulnerable workers not only depress wages and benefits for authorized workers in the same workplace, but they also gain a competitive advantage over law-abiding employers that comply with labor laws and collective bargaining agreements.{{27}} In this way, the NPRM’s restriction of lawful employment authorization would distort workplace competition by rewarding employers that exploit vulnerable workers while disadvantaging those that comply with labor laws and collective bargaining agreements, thus lowering wages for all workers in the many industries where asylum-seekers are employed.

These consequences would reverberate across workplaces and industries. When employment moves into the informal economy, labor violations become harder to detect and enforce, enabling exploitative employers to undercut law-abiding competitors and driving down wages and working conditions for other workers. The NPRM does not meaningfully analyze these foreseeable effects. By failing to account for the predictable expansion of informal employment created by the proposed rule, the NPRM substantially understates its impact on labor standards and the broader labor market.

The NPRM disregards the significant reliance interests created by the existing system of asylum-based employment authorization

Under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), agencies must consider the reliance interests that regulated parties have developed under existing policies before adopting regulatory changes that would disrupt those settled expectations.{{28}} The NPRM fails to meaningfully account for the reliance interests that workers and unions have developed around the current system of asylum-based employment authorization.

For years, asylum-seekers and labor organizations have relied on a predictable regulatory framework under which individuals who meet the criteria for employment authorization can obtain a work permit within a defined timeframe. Workers make critical life decisions—including housing, transportation, and family support—based on the expectation that, if they satisfy the applicable requirements, they will be able to work lawfully while their asylum claims are pending. By introducing sweeping delays, additional eligibility barriers, and broad discretionary authority to deny applications, the proposed rule would upend these settled expectations and inject profound uncertainty into a system on which workers have long depended.

These reliance interests are particularly significant because many individuals the NPRM characterizes as “initial” asylum employment authorization applicants are not new entrants to the labor market. As described above, many have already been participating in the lawful workforce through programs such as TPS, humanitarian parole, deferred action, or other programs that allow for employment authorization. When those programs are terminated or curtailed, many workers eligible for asylum turn to the asylum system in order to maintain lawful employment authorization—relying on claims for asylum that are almost certainly valid given the circumstances that allowed them to qualify for temporary protections like TPS and parole—but which they did not assert sooner because of their eligibility for other programs which could be approved more quickly. Closing off this pathway for these current lawful employees in the U.S. labor market who also have valid asylum claims will eliminate the only remaining pathway for them to continue working lawfully in jobs they already hold. Their coworkers, employers, and entire workplaces depend on their continued participation in the labor force.

By imposing new eligibility barriers and expanding the circumstances under which renewal applications may be denied, along with creating unjustified lengthy bureaucratic pauses in adjudication, the proposed rule would significantly slow the renewal process and increase the likelihood that workers will lose lawful employment authorization while their applications remain pending. Given the scale of the existing asylum backlog, these changes threaten to create widespread gaps in work authorization for workers who have already been lawfully employed for years.

The NPRM would bring the asylum-based employment authorization system to a functional standstill. Workers who have relied on timely adjudication of work authorization applications would face prolonged periods without lawful employment authorization, while co-workers who depend on those workers would face sudden and unpredictable staffing disruptions. The NPRM does not meaningfully engage with these reliance interests or the systemic consequences of destabilizing an employment authorization framework on which hundreds of thousands of workers and employers have come to depend.

Because the proposed rule disregards these substantial reliance interests and fails to evaluate the disruptive consequences of overturning longstanding expectations about the availability and timing of employment authorization, the NPRM fails to consider an important aspect of the problem before the agency.

Conclusion and recommended action

The NPRM rests on a chain of flawed assumptions that do not reflect the realities of the modern U.S. labor market. It ignores the positive economic benefits and value of Employment Authorization Documents for asylum-seekers, and fails to estimate the many negative impacts that will result, harming not only asylum-seekers, but also U.S. employers and U.S.-born citizen workers. It mischaracterizes who will be impacted by the proposed rule, failing to recognize that many “initial” asylum applicants who would face the harshest aspects of the proposed rule are already embedded in the workforce. It disregards the substantial reliance interests that workers and employers have developed around a predictable system of asylum-based employment authorization. It ignores the predictable expansion of informal employment that will result from leaving asylum-seekers without lawful means of supporting themselves for years. And it assumes—without evidence—that employers will be able to easily replace workers who lose employment authorization.

In practice, the proposed rule would not streamline the administration of asylum-based employment authorization. Instead, it would destabilize workplaces, disrupt established workforces, weaken labor standards enforcement—leading to lower wages for workers in many industries—and impose significant costs on workers, employers, and the broader labor market.

For these reasons, the Economic Policy Institute urges DHS to withdraw the proposed rule.

Comment submitted by:

Daniel Costa
Director of Immigration Law and Policy Research
Economic Policy Institute

Endnotes

{{1.}} See Employment Authorization Reform for Asylum Applicants, 91 Fed. Reg. 8616, 8618–20 (Feb. 23, 2026).

{{2.}} See id. at 8618–19.

{{3.}} Daniel Costa, Josh Bivens, Ben Zipperer, and Monique Morrissey, The U.S. benefits from immigration but policy reforms needed to maximize gains: Recommendations and a review of key issues to ensure fair wages and labor standards for all workers, Economic Policy Institute, October 4, 2024.

{{4.}} American Immigration Council, The Contributions of Temporary Protected Status Holders to the U.S. Economy (fact sheet), September 19, 2023.

{{5.}} Andrew Moriarty, “Temporary Protected Status (TPS): 5 Things to Know,” Policy Brief, FWD.US, February 29, 2024.

{{6.}} President’s Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration (President’s Alliance), Breakdown of Dreamer Populations—Both with and Without DACA, Updated May 23, 2024.

{{7.}}, Nicole Svajlenka and Trinh Q. Truong, “The Demographic and Economic Impacts of DACA Recipients: Fall 2021 Edition,” Center for American Progress, November 24, 2021.

{{8.}} Tom Wong, Ignacia Rodriguez Kmec, Diana Pliego, Karen Fierro Ruiz, Silva Mathema, Trinh Q. Truong, and Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, 2023 Survey of DACA Recipients Highlights Economic Advancement, Continued Uncertainty amid Legal Limbo, Center for American Progress, March 25, 2024.

{{9.}} Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny, “The Impact of Temporary Protected Status on Immigrants’ Labor Market Outcomes,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 1415, December 2014.

{{10.}} David Dyssegaard Kallick, “’Let Us Work’: The Wage Gain When Asylum Seekers Gain Work Authorization,” Immigration Research Initiative, September 7, 2023.

{{11.}} See for example, Ben Zipperer, Trump’s deportation agenda will destroy millions of jobs: Both immigrants and U.S.-born workers would suffer job losses, particularly in construction and child care, Economic Policy Institute, July 10, 2025.

{{12.}} See for example, Carl Davis, Marco Guzman, and Emma Sifre. 2024. Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, July 30, 2024.

{{13.}} This rationale—the validity of which is beyond the scope of this comment—is repeated throughout the NPRM. See, e.g., Employment Authorization Reform for Asylum Applicants, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 91 Fed. Reg. 8616, 8620 (Feb. 23, 2026) (“[T]he affirmative asylum application backlog serves as a magnet pulling aliens into the U.S. illegally.”); id. at 8664 (same); id. at 8629 (“filing fraudulent, frivolous, or otherwise meritless asylum cases primarily to access employment authorization” is a “pull factor for illegal immigration,” such that the NPRM “should decrease the number of illegal border crossers”); id. at 8659 (proposing new eligibility bar on asylum-based work permits to “curb the pull-factor of employment authorization for those who have been present in the United States for more than 1 year”); id. at 8660 (“This rule will prioritize the safety and security of the American people by disincentivizing illegal migration and criminal conduct for [sic] aliens who would like to obtain employment authorization.”); id. at 8669 (“tethering (c)(8) EAD application acceptance to asylum processing times . . . will permanently eliminate the possibility that asylum backlogs may serve as a magnet attracting illegal immigration”).

{{14.}} See Temporary Protected Status (TPS): Fact Sheet, Forum (Feb. 4, 2026), https://forumtogether.org/article/temporary-protected-status-fact-sheet/ (listing recent TPS termination announcements, including TPS protections for Venezuela, Haiti, Nepal, Honduras, Nicaragua, Syria, Afghanistan, Cameroon, South Sudan, Burma, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen); Dep’t of Homeland Sec., DHS Issues Notices of Termination for the CHNV Parole Program, Encourages Parolees to Self-Deport Immediately (June 12, 2025), https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/06/12/dhs-issues-notices-termination-chnv-parole-program-encourages-parolees-self-deport; U.S. Citizenship & Immigr. Servs., Termination of Family Reunification Parole Processes for Colombians, Cubans, Ecuadorians, Guatemalans, Haitians, Hondurans, and Salvadorans, 90 Fed. Reg. 58032 (Dec. 15, 2025); Gregory Royal Pratt & Laura Rodríguez Presa, DACA delays lead to lost jobs, less stability and anxiety over potential deportation under Donald Trump, Chicago Tribune (Mar. 15, 2026), https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/03/15/daca-delays-trump-immigration/.

{{15.}} See 91 Fed. Reg. at 8652-53, 8658 (acknowledging former TPS, parole, and DACA holders often apply for asylum).

{{16.}} 91 Fed. Reg. at 8620–21, 8664-65.

{{17.}} See id. (noting that lost compensation may be transferred to currently employed workers through additional hours or overtime).

{{18.}} See, e.g., fwd.us, People seeking asylum are contributing to the workforce (Jan. 31, 2026), https://www.fwd.us/news/people-seeking-asylum-are-contributing-to-the-workforce/.

{{19.}} See, e.g., Brief of Amici Curiae AFL-CIO and Ten Affiliated Labor Unions, Lesly Miot v. Trump, No. 26-5050 (D.C. Cir. Feb. 17, 2026) (“AFL-CIO and Affiliated Labor Unions Haiti TPS Brief”), at 16–17.

{{20.}} See, e.g., Julia Gelatt, “Trump Restrictions on Legal Immigration Could Sharply Reduce U.S. Population Growth,” Migration Policy Institute (April 2026), https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/trump-legal-immigration-cuts-us-population-growth; and Chair Jerome Powell, “Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference, March 18, 2026,” Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260318.pdf (March 18, 2026).

{{21.}} See, e.g., Brief of Amici Curiae AFL-CIO and Affiliated Labor Unions, Svitlana Doe et al. v. Noem et al., No. 25-1384 (1st Cir. July 7, 2025) (“AFL-CIO and Affiliated Labor Unions Parole Brief”), at 13.

{{22.}} See, e.g., id. at 8–17 (discussing the chaos and harmful fallout that union members and employers experienced when DHS abruptly ended work authorization through the CHNV parole program); Andrea Hsu, Factories from GE to Kraft Heinz lose immigrant workers, stressing those who remain, NPR (Aug. 11, 2025), https://www.npr.org/2025/08/11/nx-s1-5496335/trump-immigration-workers-parole-tps.

{{23.}} See, e.g., AFL-CIO and Affiliated Labor Unions Haiti TPS Brief at 36 (noting that “[a]s a direct result of DHS’s actions [in terminating TPS for Haiti], nurses and other healthcare workers will feel pressure to work longer hours to attend to more patients, exacerbating the turnover and burnout that is endemic to the industry”).

{{24.}} See, e.g., Mae M. Ngai, Impossible Subjects: Illegal Aliens and the Making of Modern America (2004) (discussing historical links between immigrant labor and industrial unionization); Joint Econ. Comm. of the U.S. Cong., Unions Protect Employment and Raise Earnings, Including for Workers Who Are Immigrants (June 14, 2023) (finding unionization increases wages, benefits access, and workplace protections for immigrant workers); Andrea Hsu, Factories from GE to Kraft Heinz lose immigrant workers, stressing those who remain, NPR (Aug. 11, 2025), https://www.npr.org/2025/08/11/nx-s1-5496335/trump-immigration-workers-parole-tps.

{{25.}} See, e.g., Kevin Appleby, The Importance of Immigrant Labor to the US Economy, Center for Migration Studies (Sept. 2, 2024), https://cmsny.org/importance-of-immigrant-labor-to-us-economy/ (noting foreign-born workers were mainly employed in service occupations, construction, transportation, and material moving occupations); Dorothy Neufeld, Ranked: Union Membership by Industry in America, Visual Capitalist (Nov. 7, 2024), https://www.visualcapitalist.com/union-membership-by-industry-in-america/ (listing top industries with union membership based on Department of Labor statistics, including construction and transportation); Migration Policy Institute, Immigrants and Union Membership in the United States (2004) (demonstrating rising absolute numbers of immigrant workers in unions despite lower overall union density among foreign-born workers).

{{26.}} Annette Bernhardt et al., Broken Laws, Unprotected Workers: Violations of Employment and Labor Laws in America’s Cities, Center for Urban Economic Development, National Employment Law Project, and UCLA Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, 2009.

{{27.}} See, e.g., AFL-CIO and Affiliated Labor Unions Parole Brief at 15–16 (when the hotel industry is faced with labor shortages, employers often use temporary labor agencies to supply workers, which not only “undermin[e] the wages and working conditions” for U.S. citizen workers employed by the hotel “by paying substandard wages and benefits,” but also “often violate immigration law by hiring undocumented workers”).

{{28.}} See FCC v. Fox Television Studios, Inc., 556 U.S. 502, 515–16 (2009) (noting that an agency must sufficiently explain its decision when it departs from a previous position, which requires a “reasoned explanation” as to why it is “disregarding” any “factual findings . . . which underlay its prior policy” and “contradict” the factual findings underlying its new policy).

{{1.}} The proposed rule includes multiple reference numbers, which are listed here out of an abundance of caution: No. 2799-25; DHS Docket No. USCIS-2025-0370; DHS Docket No. 2025-0370; and RIN 1615-AC97.

The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.0% in 2024 under Biden’s administration, and it has risen under Trump. With today’s jobs report, the three-month average for 2026 shows the U.S.-born unemployment rate is at 4.3% (the non-seasonally adjusted average for 2026 is 4.6%).

Claims that mass deportations have helped U.S.-born workers are simply inconsistent with the data. This is no surprise, given that economic research has repeatedly shown that increased immigration enforcement harms everyone in the labor market, including U.S.-born workers. Part of the explanation for this is that immigrants are not only workers, but also consumers, which generates demand and helps the economy grow. Another part is that immigrants and U.S.-born workers complement each other in the labor market. For example, when immigrant roofers and framers disappear, there is less work available for the native-born electricians and plumbers. And when child care workers and cleaners are detained, deported, or terrorized by the Trump administration’s reckless and indiscriminate immigration enforcement, U.S.-born mothers work fewer hours to cover increased care responsibilities at home.

U.S.-born workers are faring worse under Trump’s assault on immigrants–which has included going after not just undocumented immigrants, but also those with green cards, temporary statuses like parole and DACA, and refugees and asylum-seekers. Mass deportations, arrests, detentions, and the stripping of work permits from millions have devastated communities and failed to deliver the promised jobs boom.