Tariff increases occurred well before COVID inflation and were too small to explain it: Year-over-year change in quarterly personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and duties, 2017–2021
| Inflation in personal consumer expenditures | Change in customs duties/PCE | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-2017 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr-2017 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Jul-2017 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Oct-2017 | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Jan-2018 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Apr-2018 | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Jul-2018 | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Oct-2018 | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Jan-2019 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Apr-2019 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jul-2019 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Oct-2019 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jan-2020 | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Apr-2020 | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jul-2020 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Oct-2020 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jan-2021 | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Apr-2021 | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Jul-2021 | 4.3% | 0.3% |
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts.