Impact of policy decisions on median wage growth, 1979--2017
| Factor | Impact on median wage | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth (deflated by CPI-U-RS), 1979–2017 | ||
| 1 | Net productivity | 56.0% |
| 2 | Median hourly compensation | 13.0% |
| 3 | Production worker hourly compensation | 10.9% |
| 4 | Productivity–median hourly compensation divergence (1 − 2) | 43.0% |
| Factors | ||
| 1 | Excessive unemployment* | 10.0% |
| 2 | Erosion of collective bargaining | 7.9% |
| 3 | Globalization | 5.6% |
| 4 | Weaker labor standards | |
| Erosion of minimum wage | 0.0% | |
| Overtime coverage for salaried workers | 0.3% | |
| Wage theft | n.a. | |
| Misclassification | 1.0% | |
| Increased presence of undocumented | n.a. | |
| Guestworker programs | n.a. | |
| Increased racial discrimination | n.a. | |
| 5 | Employer-imposed contract terms | |
| Noncompetes | 2.25% | |
| Anti-poaching | n.a. | |
| Forced arbitration | n.a. | |
| 6 | Corporate structure | |
| Labor concentration | 0.0% | |
| Dominant buyer | 3.4% | |
| Fissuring | 2.25% | |
| Product market monopoly | 0.0% | |
| Industry deregulation | n.a. | |
| 7 | Automation/skill-biased technological change | |
| 1979–1995 | n.a. | |
| 1995–2017 | 0.0% | |
* Average relative to 5.5% unemployment.
Sources: Excessive unemployment estimate based on Bivens and Zipperer 2018 and Katz and Krueger 1999; erosion of collective bargaining estimate based on Fortin, Lemieux, and Lloyd 2021, Stansbury and Summers 2020, Western and Rosenfeld 2011; globalization estimate based on Bivens 2013 and Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013; erosion of minimum wage estimate based on Fortin, Lemieux, and Lloyd 2021 and Autor, Manning, and Smith 2016; overtime coverage for salaried workers estimates based on analysis of Department of Labor 2016; noncompetes estimates based on Lipsitz and Starr 2020; dominant buyer estimates based on Wilmers 2018; fissuring based on Weil 2019; automation/skill-biased technological change from 1995–2017 estimates based on Autor, Goldin, and Katz 2020 and Autor 2017.