U.S. employment impacts of steel and aluminum tariffs (jobs gained or lost)
| Predicted change | Actual change | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Partnership study (tariffs only) | Trade Partnership study (retaliation impacts) | February–October 2018 (except as noted) | |
| Primary agriculture | -285 | -6,782 | N/A |
| Primary energy | -669 | 974 | 42,000 |
| Manufacturing | -2,612 | -19,931 | 176,000 |
| Processed food | -1,173 | -7,339 | 22,200 |
| Beverages and tobacco* | -365 | -2,316 | 8,900 |
| Petroleum and coal products | -5 | -220 | -500 |
| Chemicals, rubber, and plastics | -1,220 | -1,247 | 17,400 |
| Iron & steel including ferrous foundries*+ | 29,998 | 23,424 | 2,700 |
| Nonferrous metals | 3,466 | 2,856 | -1,300 |
| Alumina & aluminum 3313*++ | 300 | ||
| Other nonferrous including nonferrous foundries*+++ | -1,600 | ||
| Fabricated metals* | -12,802 | -12,877 | 28,600 |
| Motor vehicles and parts* | -5,052 | -4,917 | 8,500 |
| Other transportation equipment* | -2,180 | -4,440 | 26,900 |
| Electronic equipment | -1,579 | 1,246 | 24,300 |
| Other machinery | -5,247 | -4,160 | 30,800 |
| Textiles | -195 | 401 | -2,000 |
| Clothing | -37 | 1,064 | -5,800 |
| Footwear and leather*** | -3 | 259 | -4600 |
| Wood, paper | -2,142 | -3,954 | 10,200 |
| Other goods* | -4,075 | -7,712 | 9,700 |
| Services** | -142,305 | -376,706 | 1,407,000 |
| Construction** | -28,313 | -63,930 | 151,000 |
| Air transport | -353 | 78 | 3,000 |
| Water transport | -32 | -94 | 1,000 |
| Other transport | 1,484 | -1,052 | 102,700 |
| Trade and distribution | -34,065 | -98,088 | -22,600 |
| Communications | -3,675 | -8,767 | 10,000 |
| Financial services | -5,105 | -11,145 | 7,600 |
| Insurance | -1,934 | -3,983 | 12,300 |
| Business and professional services | -22,375 | -26,590 | 415,600 |
| Personal and recreational services | -10,312 | -35,033 | 513,200 |
| Other services* | -37,625 | -128,102 | 213,200 |
| Total | -145,870 | -402,445 | 1,625,000 |
| Total nonmanufacturing | -143,258 | -382,514 | 1,449,000 |
* Actual employment data for February–September 2018.
** Construction employment included in “Services,” as in the Trade Partnership’s tariffs-only study; does not match BLS total for service employment.
*** Footwear and leather was included in miscellaneous goods and other, under industry code 32-32900.
+ Iron and steel includes NAICS 3311, 3312, and 33151 (ferrous foundries).
++ Includes primary alumina production, secondary aluminum smelting and alloying, and rolled and extruded products (NAICS 3313-13, -14 and -18).
+++ Includes other nonferrous metals (such as copper) and nonferrous foundries (NAICS 3314 and 33152).
Note: Actual change (column 3) covers only nonfarm employment.
Sources: Joseph Francois and Laura M. Baughman, Does Import Protection Save Jobs? The Estimated Impacts of Proposed Tariffs on Imports of U.S. Steel and Aluminum, Trade Partnership, March 2018 (column 1); Joseph Francois, Laura M. Baughman, and Daniel Anthony, Round 3: 'Trade Discussion' or 'Trade War'? The Estimated Impacts of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, Trade Partnership, June 2018 (column 2); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, public data series aggregated from basic monthly CPS microdata and accessed through the Labor Force Statistics database and series reports, nonfarm data, accessed November 8–December 7, 2018 (column 3)