If the suite of unemployment insurance programs were reinstated and extended, how many more jobs would we have in 2021?: Estimated employment gains by state, percent and level, 2021
| State | Jobs gained | Job gain share |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 50,000 | 2.5% |
| Alaska | 11,000 | 3.6% |
| Arizona | 100,000 | 3.5% |
| Arkansas | 35,000 | 2.8% |
| California | 852,000 | 5.3% |
| Colorado | 77,000 | 2.9% |
| Connecticut | 52,000 | 3.2% |
| Delaware | 12,000 | 2.8% |
| Washington D.C. | 22,000 | 2.9% |
| Florida | 183,000 | 2.1% |
| Georgia | 144,000 | 3.2% |
| Hawaii | 31,000 | 5.7% |
| Idaho | 17,000 | 2.2% |
| Illinois | 199,000 | 3.5% |
| Indiana | 96,000 | 3.1% |
| Iowa | 37,000 | 2.4% |
| Kansas | 41,000 | 3.0% |
| Kentucky | 45,000 | 2.4% |
| Louisiana | 69,000 | 3.7% |
| Maine | 16,000 | 2.7% |
| Maryland | 88,000 | 3.4% |
| Massachusetts | 168,000 | 5.0% |
| Michigan | 186,000 | 4.6% |
| Minnesota | 81,000 | 2.9% |
| Mississippi | 30,000 | 2.7% |
| Missouri | 67,000 | 2.4% |
| Montana | 14,000 | 3.0% |
| Nebraska | 21,000 | 2.1% |
| Nevada | 62,000 | 4.7% |
| New Hampshire | 17,000 | 2.7% |
| New Jersey | 160,000 | 4.1% |
| New Mexico | 26,000 | 3.2% |
| New York | 458,000 | 5.2% |
| North Carolina | 132,000 | 3.0% |
| North Dakota | 10,000 | 2.4% |
| Ohio | 185,000 | 3.5% |
| Oklahoma | 39,000 | 2.4% |
| Oregon | 66,000 | 3.6% |
| Pennsylvania | 265,000 | 4.7% |
| Rhode Island | 19,000 | 4.1% |
| South Carolina | 60,000 | 2.8% |
| South Dakota | 8,000 | 1.9% |
| Tennessee | 77,000 | 2.5% |
| Texas | 365,000 | 2.9% |
| Utah | 31,000 | 2.0% |
| Vermont | 9,000 | 3.1% |
| Virginia | 118,000 | 3.0% |
| Washington | 100,000 | 3.0% |
| West Virginia | 22,000 | 3.3% |
| Wisconsin | 74,000 | 2.7% |
| Wyoming | 6,000 | 2.2% |
Notes: We take the relationship between the unemployment rate (or long-term unemployment rate) and the boost to personal income from Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (or Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) for July, August, and September 2020 and assume it continues going forward as benefits are extended through 2021.
We take the relationship between the unemployment rate (or long-term unemployment rate) and the boost to personal income from Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (or Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) for July, August, and September 2020 and assume it continues going forward as benefits are extended through 2021. Similarly, we take the relationship between unemployment and personal income from Pandemic Unemployment Compensation between April and August and assume that relationship would continue in 2021 if that program were reinstated. We apply a multiplier of 1.5 to the personal income boost provided by each UI program. We then divide this boost by overall GDP, and apply the resulting percentage change to the prediction level of employment in 2021 to get an implied employment boost. The national boost to employment is allocated across states by a combined weight of equal parts the current shares of initial and continuing claims in that state as of the Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (dated November 19, 2020) and total nonfarm employment from the Current Employment Statistics averaged from November 2019 to October 2020. The job gain percentage takes the job level and applies it to nonfarm employment in each state in October 2020.
Source: Authors’ analysis based on National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), data on continuing unemployment insurance claims from the Department of Labor (DOL), data on unemployment and long-term unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey (CPS), and data on total nonfarm employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).