Low-wage workers have experienced stronger-than-usual wage growth in the pandemic business cycle: Real wage changes at the 10th percentile and average of 40–60th, four years from prior peak, in current and last four business cycles, 1979–2023
| Business cycle | 10th percentile | Middle-wage<br>(avg 40th–60th) |
|---|---|---|
| 1979–1983 | -13.7% | -3.5% |
| 1989–1993 | 5.7% | -1.0% |
| 2001–2005 | -1.7% | 0.2% |
| 2007–2011 | 0.1% | -0.9% |
| 2019–2023 | 13.2% | 3.0% |
Note: Because there was a double dip recession in the early 1980's, we tested the robustness of our results using different business cycles dates and find that our initial results still hold.
Source: EPI analysis of the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata, EPI Current Population Survey Extracts, Version 1.0.48 (2024a), https://microdata.epi.org.