Total jobs at risk if EU grants MES to China

Low impact* High impact*
Direct 478,600 957,300
Indirect 537,100 1,074,100
Respending 729,800 1,459,700
Total** 1,745,400 3,490,900

* The low-impact scenario assumes granting MES to China would increase manufacturing imports from China by 25 percentĀ over the next three to five years relative to their base level in 2011; the high-impact scenario assumes a 50 percent increase in imports from China.

** Subtotals may not add up to total due to rounding.

Source: Authors' analysis of Bivens (2014, Table 5), European Commission (2015a, 2015b, 2015c, 2015d, and 2015h). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see text and the appendix.

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