Impact if EU grants market economy status (MES) to China

Low impact High impact
Manufacturing imports from China (billions of euros) 71.3 142.5
Gross domestic product
in annual billions of euros -114.1 -228.0
as a share of projected GDP -1.0% -2.0%
Number of jobs at risk (millions)  1.7 3.5
Share of total EU employment at risk 0.9% 1.8%

* The low-impact scenario assumes granting MES to China would increase manufacturing imports from China by 25 percent over the next three to five years relative to their base level in 2011; the high-impact scenario assumes a 50 percent increase in imports from China.

Source: Authors' analysis of Bivens (2014, Table 5), European Commission (2015a, 2015b, 2015c, 2015d, and 2015h). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see text and the appendix.

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