Impact if EU grants market economy status (MES) to China
| Scenario* | ||
|---|---|---|
| Low impact | High impact | |
| CHANGE IN: | ||
| Manufacturing imports from China (billions of euros) | 71.3 | 142.5 |
| Gross domestic product | ||
| in annual billions of euros | -114.1 | -228.0 |
| as a share of projected GDP | -1.0% | -2.0% |
| Number of jobs at risk (millions) | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| Share of total EU employment at risk | 0.9% | 1.8% |
* The low-impact scenario assumes granting MES to China would increase manufacturing imports from China by 25 percent over the next three to five years relative to their base level in 2011; the high-impact scenario assumes a 50 percent increase in imports from China.
Source: Authors' analysis of Bivens (2014, Table 5), European Commission (2015a, 2015b, 2015c, 2015d, and 2015h). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see text and the appendix.