Granger causality test results: Effects of steel prices on end-use goods prices
| End-use product | Steel product(s) | k-lags | χ^2 | Probability of significance | Causality | Average effect of 1% price increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods | Iron and steel | 1 | 3.5322 | 94.0% | Weak | 0.02% |
| Durable goods | Cold-rolled sheet and strip | 1 | 1.0615 | 69.7% | N | 0.00% |
| Hot-rolled sheet and strip, incl. tin mill products | 1 | 0.6951 | 59.6% | N | 0.00% | |
| Hot-rolled bars, plates, and structural shapes, carbon | 1 | 1.0796 | 70.1% | N | 0.00% | |
| New motor vehicles | Cold-rolled sheet and strip | 2 | 1.5724 | 54.4% | N | 0.00% |
| Motor vehicle parts | Hot-rolled sheet and strip, incl. tin mill products | 4 | 2.6699 | 38.6% | N | 0.00% |
| Hot-rolled bars, plates, and structural shapes, carbon | 4 | 5.8361 | 78.8% | N | 0.00% | |
| Construction machinery | Hot-rolled bars, plates, and structural shapes, carbon | 1 | 0.2072 | 35.1% | N | 0.00% |
| Nonresidential construction goods | Hot-rolled bars, plates, and structural shapes, carbon | 1 | 5.2682 | 97.8% | Y | 0.10% |
| Electrical equipment and household appliances | Cold-rolled sheet and strip | 2 | 1.6912 | 80.7% | N | 0.00% |
| Steel wire, carbon | 2 | 0.4380 | 49.2% | N | 0.00% | |
| Food at home | Hot-rolled sheet and strip, incl. tin mill products | 3 | 8.8442 | 96.9% | Y | 0.05% |
Source: Authors analysis of BLS (2021b, 2021c, and 2021d) and FRED (2021) data.