Does any recent softening seem recessionary in standard indicators?: Change in pace of growth in last six months before recessions and in first quarter of 2025
| Deceleration in Last 6 Months Before Recession | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 recession | 2008 recession | 2025 Quarter One | |
| Nonfarm payroll | -1.4% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| Employment in the CPS | -1.1% | -0.9% | -1.8% |
| Real PI excluding transfers | -3.7% | -2.9% | 0.0% |
| Industrial production | -8.4% | -1.4% | 2.0% |
| Real retail sales | -5.9% | -0.5% | -1.0% |
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | -3.4% | 0.5% | -2.8% |
| “Core” GDP: Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | -3.4% | -0.7% | -0.5% |
| Domestic demand: Real final sales to domestic purchasers | -2.3% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) | -3.0% | -2.7% | – |
| Average of real GDP and GDI | -3.2% | -1.1% | – |
| Real residential investment | 1.9% | -8.9% | -3.4% |
| Unemployment rate change (ppt) | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
Notes: For each indicator, for the first two columns the pace of growth in the 6 months before a recession is compared to the pace of growth in the year before those 6 months. For the last column, the pace of growth since the last quarter (or month) of 2024 is compared to the pace of growth in 2024. The exception is CPS employment, which sees a level “reset” in January of each year. For that indicator we look at growth from January 2025 to the latest month available (currently May 2025) and compare that pace of growth to what prevailed from January 2024 to December 2025.
Sources: Nonfarm payroll employment is from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Household employment and the unemployment rate are from the Current Population Survey (CPS) of the BLS and Census Bureau. Real personal income excluding government transfers, real personal consumption expenditures, real gross domestic product, “core” real GDP, real final sales to domestic purchasers, real gross domestic income, and real residential investment are all from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real industrial production is from the Federal Reserve Board.