Predicted job losses by December 2021, by state, under three scenarios of federal fiscal aid to state and local governments
| No federal aid | $300 billion in aid | $500 billion in aid | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job losses | Share of total nonfarm employment | Job losses | Share of total nonfarm employment | Job losses | Share of total nonfarm employment | |
| UNITED STATES | 5,300,000 | 3.5% | 3,700,000 | 2.5% | 2,600,000 | 1.7% |
| Alabama | 76,600 | 3.7% | 53,500 | 2.6% | 37,600 | 1.8% |
| Alaska | 16,500 | 5.0% | 11,500 | 3.5% | 8,100 | 2.5% |
| Arizona | 95,200 | 3.2% | 66,500 | 2.3% | 46,700 | 1.6% |
| Arkansas | 45,200 | 3.5% | 31,600 | 2.5% | 22,200 | 1.7% |
| California | 688,200 | 3.9% | 480,500 | 2.8% | 337,600 | 1.9% |
| Colorado | 97,100 | 3.5% | 67,800 | 2.4% | 47,600 | 1.7% |
| Connecticut | 59,200 | 3.5% | 41,400 | 2.5% | 29,100 | 1.7% |
| Delaware | 16,800 | 3.6% | 11,700 | 2.5% | 8,300 | 1.8% |
| District of Columbia | 20,500 | 2.6% | 14,300 | 1.8% | 10,000 | 1.3% |
| Florida | 280,800 | 3.1% | 196,000 | 2.2% | 137,800 | 1.5% |
| Georgia | 148,100 | 3.2% | 103,400 | 2.2% | 72,700 | 1.6% |
| Hawaii | 23,700 | 3.6% | 16,500 | 2.5% | 11,600 | 1.8% |
| Idaho | 25,300 | 3.3% | 17,600 | 2.3% | 12,400 | 1.6% |
| Illinois | 211,000 | 3.4% | 147,300 | 2.4% | 103,500 | 1.7% |
| Indiana | 100,900 | 3.2% | 70,400 | 2.2% | 49,500 | 1.6% |
| Iowa | 57,000 | 3.6% | 39,800 | 2.5% | 27,900 | 1.8% |
| Kansas | 51,700 | 3.6% | 36,100 | 2.5% | 25,400 | 1.8% |
| Kentucky | 69,400 | 3.6% | 48,400 | 2.5% | 34,000 | 1.8% |
| Louisiana | 72,900 | 3.7% | 50,900 | 2.6% | 35,800 | 1.8% |
| Maine | 21,100 | 3.3% | 14,700 | 2.3% | 10,400 | 1.6% |
| Maryland | 97,100 | 3.5% | 67,800 | 2.4% | 47,700 | 1.7% |
| Massachusetts | 126,200 | 3.4% | 88,100 | 2.4% | 61,900 | 1.7% |
| Michigan | 150,200 | 3.4% | 104,800 | 2.4% | 73,700 | 1.7% |
| Minnesota | 103,300 | 3.5% | 72,100 | 2.4% | 50,700 | 1.7% |
| Mississippi | 46,500 | 4.0% | 32,400 | 2.8% | 22,800 | 2.0% |
| Missouri | 94,700 | 3.3% | 66,100 | 2.3% | 46,500 | 1.6% |
| Montana | 17,600 | 3.6% | 12,300 | 2.5% | 8,600 | 1.8% |
| Nebraska | 37,000 | 3.6% | 25,800 | 2.5% | 18,200 | 1.8% |
| Nevada | 42,800 | 3.0% | 29,900 | 2.1% | 21,000 | 1.5% |
| New Hampshire | 21,600 | 3.2% | 15,100 | 2.2% | 10,600 | 1.5% |
| New Jersey | 152,500 | 3.6% | 106,400 | 2.5% | 74,800 | 1.8% |
| New Mexico | 35,300 | 4.1% | 24,600 | 2.9% | 17,300 | 2.0% |
| New York | 405,600 | 4.1% | 283,200 | 2.9% | 199,000 | 2.0% |
| North Carolina | 156,500 | 3.4% | 109,200 | 2.4% | 76,800 | 1.7% |
| North Dakota | 16,700 | 3.8% | 11,700 | 2.7% | 8,200 | 1.9% |
| Ohio | 191,400 | 3.4% | 133,600 | 2.4% | 93,900 | 1.7% |
| Oklahoma | 62,000 | 3.6% | 43,300 | 2.5% | 30,400 | 1.8% |
| Oregon | 72,600 | 3.7% | 50,700 | 2.6% | 35,600 | 1.8% |
| Pennsylvania | 201,000 | 3.3% | 140,300 | 2.3% | 98,600 | 1.6% |
| Rhode Island | 16,800 | 3.3% | 11,700 | 2.3% | 8,200 | 1.6% |
| South Carolina | 79,600 | 3.6% | 55,600 | 2.5% | 39,100 | 1.8% |
| South Dakota | 15,000 | 3.4% | 10,500 | 2.4% | 7,400 | 1.7% |
| Tennessee | 100,500 | 3.2% | 70,100 | 2.2% | 49,300 | 1.6% |
| Texas | 433,900 | 3.4% | 302,900 | 2.4% | 212,800 | 1.7% |
| Utah | 51,800 | 3.3% | 36,200 | 2.3% | 25,400 | 1.6% |
| Vermont | 11,900 | 3.8% | 8,300 | 2.6% | 5,800 | 1.8% |
| Virginia | 135,100 | 3.3% | 94,300 | 2.3% | 66,300 | 1.6% |
| Washington | 129,600 | 3.7% | 90,500 | 2.6% | 63,600 | 1.8% |
| West Virginia | 28,100 | 3.9% | 19,600 | 2.7% | 13,800 | 1.9% |
| Wisconsin | 99,200 | 3.3% | 69,200 | 2.3% | 48,600 | 1.6% |
| Wyoming | 13,400 | 4.6% | 9,400 | 3.2% | 6,600 | 2.3% |
Note: State employment shares and weights calculated based on 2019 annual totals.
Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis using GDP and payroll employment forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Moody's Analytics, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs. State allocations use Local Area Unemployment Statistics data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.